© 2004, OC&C Strategy Consultants

E-commerce : when the new economy keeps its promises…

Back in business ?

15 mai 200414 mai 2004

E-commerce is still growing fast in the 4 major european markets.

Source: ONS, Interactive Media in Retail Group, Euromonitor, Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach /ACTA, Benchmark Group, Thuiswinkel Markt Monitor

(1998-2003, 2002-2003)

B2C e-commerce growth rate

83% 87%

125%

98%

72%

30%

48%

32%

UK Allemagne France Pays-Bas

CAGR 98-03

CAGR 02-03

Market size in 2003

€ 13.8 billion € 11.0 billion € 5.0 billion € 1.2 billion

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

E-commerce is profitable.

Non-exhaustiveMain sites’ break-even year

Source: presse

67% of US e-retailers already profitable in 2003.

43%56%

67%

38%

1999 2000 2001 2003

(%, 1999-2003)

Share of profitable US e-retailers

Source: Etudes shop.org

(% of sales among 150 e-retailers, 2003)

e-retailers profit margin

-15%

16%

2002 2003

New Internet users are the online buyers of tomorrow.

Source: Baromètre Multimédia Médiamétrie, analyse OC&C

35%

20%

15%

30%

Source: Etude UCLA (02/2003)

USA

« How long did it take you to start buying online? »

More than 3 years

Between 1.5 and 3 years

Between 1 and 1.5 year

Less than 1 year

53%69%

30%

23%

17%8%

Internautes au coursdu dernier mois

Acheteurs en ligne aucours du dernier mois

More than 3 years

1 to 3 years

Less than 1 year

(France, Q2 2003)

Distribution of french Internet-users and online buyers according to their seniority in Internet usage

100% = 100 38

49%

29%

Conversionratio

18%

38%France

(US panel, 03/2003)

Cheaper access to broadband will speed upe-commerce growth.

38%

58%

% d'acheteurs onlineparmi les internautes

% d'acheteurs onlineparmi les internautes

haut débit

Source: Baromètre ACSEL 12/2003

3%

9%

21%

3%

6%

17%

27%

1%

4%

13%

22%

7%

14%

24%

12%

20%

30%

38%

36%

37%

2000 déc-01 déc-02 avr-03

France

(% of households, Dec. 2001 – Apr. 2003)

Share of broadband among Internet users

Source: Jupiter Research, Nielsen / NetRatings, IPSOS Cybertypes 12/2003

USA

Germany

UK

(France, december 2003)

Online purchase rate according to bandwith

Netherland

déc-00

Trust is settling in…progressively !

23,2%

41,1%

March 2001 December 2003

(France, 2001-2003)

« Do you trust online purchases ? »

Source: Baromètre ACSEL

Actions undertakenActions undertaken

Means of payment are more secure and diverse

Transactions are insured

Orders are tracked

After-sales-service is improving

Means of payment are more secure and diverse

Transactions are insured

Orders are tracked

After-sales-service is improving

Online purchasers also use Internet to compare products and prices for later off-line purchases.

(Europe, 2003)

% of online purchases and off-line purchases prepared online

Source: Forrester (sondage de cyber-consommateurs d’Europe occidentale)

Last purchase off-line with prior online website visit

Last purchase online

14

98 8 8

7

43

4

17

1312

11

9 9

6 65 5

Books Music Ticketing Travel Video / DVD Clothing Computers E-games Cars Softw are

nc

1.21 1.44 1.50 1.38 1.13 1.29 1.50 2.00 nc 1.25Number of off-line purchases

for 1 online purchase

Three main questions for today

Share of the e-commerce in 5 years ? Upcoming products and services?

More consolidation to come ?

A new bubble?