© 2001 Dr. Oren Fürst 1

Global Technology Opportunities

Dr. Oren FürstColumbia Business School and Strategic Models LLC

December 3, 2001Tel Aviv

© 2001 Dr. Oren Fürst 2

• 8 Factor Analysis• Market Sizes by Population and GDP• Specific Opportunities• Specific Obstacles

© 2001 Dr. Oren Fürst 3

Business Model

Network Effects

Increasing EOS/Scalability

IntellectualProperty

Revenue andPricing Models

Strategic Alliances

Management andHuman Resources

Technology andOperations

Potential Markets/Environment

Analysis

The Furst-Melumad 8 Factor Business Model Framework

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© 2001 Dr. Oren Fürst 5

Countries Ranked by Population: 2010 -------------------------------------------------------- Rank Country Population -------------------------------------------------------- 1 China 1,359,140,968 2 India 1,168,204,502 3 United States 300,118,269 4 Indonesia 259,743,058 5 Brazil 186,822,809 6 Pakistan 171,373,158 7 Nigeria 155,587,724 8 Bangladesh 150,392,397 9 Russia 142,328,136 10 Japan 127,252,377 11 Mexico 114,994,753 12 Philippines 97,897,793 13 Vietnam 90,191,989 14 Germany 84,616,035 15 Ethiopia 82,311,882 16 Egypt 79,810,833 17 Iran 73,772,267 18 Turkey 73,322,470 19 Congo (Kinshasa) 69,846,406 20 Thailand 66,291,149

© 2001 Dr. Oren Fürst 6

World GDP by regions for 1990 1995 1999 in current US$ billion

US$ Billion (current) . 1990 1995 1999 Variation%

WORLD GDP 22088.7 24520.8 27357.9 + 23.85

North America 6647.1 7443.4 8744.0 + 31.55

Central + South America 837.5 1011.4 1089.9 + 30.14

Western Europe 7204.0 7862.0 8621.7 + 19.68

Eastern Europe + FSU 1209.2 811.5 828.9 - 31.45

Middle East 814.3 986.2 1105.1 + 35.71

Africa 453.4 452.1 510.6 + 12.62

Far East + Oceania 4923.2 5924.2 6475.7 + 31.53

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World Per capita GDP by regions for 1990-95-99 in current US$

1990 1995 1999 Variation %

World Average 4,205 4,326 4,563 + 8.5

North America 18,470 19,461 21,832 + 18.2

Central + South America 2,362 2,621 2,656 + 12.4

Western Europe 15,779 16,824 18,134 + 14.9

Eastern Europe + FSU 3,103 2,071 2,115 - 31.8

Middle East 6,261 6,669 6,796 + 8.5

Africa 734 680 651 - 11.3

Far East + Oceania 1,672 1,860 1,921 + 14.9

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Specific Issues

• Local Market Opportunities vs. Outsourcing• Fiber optics over-capacity?

– 90% of network unused, but unevenly distributed • Healthcare Systems and Services• Renewable and Hybrid Energy

– 30% of the world population is off the energy grid• Financing Issues

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• Rapid Market Growth but >90% Failure rate – Cars ; Semiconductors ; Enterprise Software– High correlation of success with size– Strategic Partnerships with Local or Large MNC

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Specific Obstacles

• Different Utility Baskets• Valuation Methods• Ability to Conceptualize• Adapting to Local Markets• Intellectual Property Laws and Enforcement

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Partnerships• Licensing• Joint Ventures• Direct Operating Subsidiaries• Considerations:

– Skills, costs and quantity of local personnel– Availability, quality and price of of physical

resources– Availability and cost of capital resources– Quality and costs of infrastructure– Government involvement