!!!!"#!$#%&'()*#!+,(,'&-!./&!0,(1223!42'!526)!7288,#*(*&9!)#:!+122:*#;!)9!2,'!71*8)(&!7/)#;&9!!

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!>&?(&8@&'!ABCD!!

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The Iowa Policy Project AB!EF!G)'3&(!>('&&(H!526)!7*(IH!526)!JAAKJ!LMCDN!MMOPBQQM!666F526)R21*%IR'2S&%(F2';!

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!**!

Authors and Acknowledgments !"#$!%&'()!*+,-.(#!*9!)!?'24&992'!24!7/&8*9('I!*#!(/&!T)(&'9/&:!5#9(*(,(&!42'!7211)@2')(*U&!E#U*'2#8&#()1!>(,:*&9!)(!(/&!$#*U&'9*(I!24!T*9%2#9*#VE),!71)*'&F!W&!'&%&*U&:!)!R/FXF!*#!)#)1I(*%)1!%/&8*9('I!6*(/!)#!&8?/)9*9!*#!)(829?/&'*%!9%*&#%&9!4'28!(/&!$#*U&'9*(I!24!7212'):2H!=2,1:&'F!W*9!%,''&#(!'&9&)'%/!)%(*U*(*&9!6*(/!,#:&';'):,)(&9!)'&!9?1*(!@&(6&&#!1)@2')(2'I!9(,:*&9!24!)(829?/&'*%!?)'(*%,1)(&!8)((&'!'&1)(&:!(2!%1*8)(&!)#:!/,8)#!/&)1(/H!)#:!9,'U&I9!*#!(/&!7/*#)!)#:!(/&!$F>F!)99&99*#;!?,@1*%!?&'%&?(*2#9!24!)#:!'&9?2#9&9!(2!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&F!W&!(&)%/&9!%1)99&9!*#!*#('2:,%(2'IH!)#)1I(*%)1!)#:!&#U*'2#8&#()1!%/&8*9('IH!(/&!&#U*'2#8&#()1!/&)1(/!*8?)%(9!24!'):*)(*2#!)#:!)*'!?211,(*2#H!)#:!U)'*2,9!)9?&%(9!24!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&!)#:!9,9()*#)@*1*(IF!W&!/)9!9*;#*4*%)#(1I!%2#('*@,(&:!(2!&442'(9!)(!(/&!$#*U&'9*(I!)#:!6*(/!(/&!7*(I!24!E),!71)*'&!(2!*#U&#(2'I!)#:!82#*(2'!(/&*'!(2()1!;'&&#/2,9&!;)9!&8*99*2#9!)#:!(2!:&U&12?!%1*8)(&!)%(*2#9!?1)#9!6*(/!)!;2)1!(2!)%/*&U&!%)'@2#!#&,(')1*(I!@I!ABJBF!!!./&!),(/2'!62,1:!1*3&!(2!)%3#261&:;&!(/&!9*;#*4*%)#(!&:*(2'*)1!%2#('*@,(*2#9!24!X)U*:!09(&'@&';!)#:!Y)(/)#!Z*#&/2,(![)#&F!!./*9!'&9&)'%/!6)9!9,??2'(&:!@I!)!;')#(!4'28!(/&!E#U*'2#8&#()1!X&4&#9&!+,#:F!./&!%2#%1,9*2#9!)'&!(/29&!24!(/&!),(/2'!)#:!(/&!526)!R21*%I!R'2S&%(F!!!!!The Iowa Policy Project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`a%28F#&(H!2'!(/'2,;/!2(/&'!%2#()%(9!)U)*1)@1&!)(!2,'!6&@9*(&F!

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The Iowa Policy Project AB!EF!G)'3&(!>(F!b!526)!7*(IH!526)!JAAKJ!b!LMCDN!MMOPBQQM!

666F526)R21*%IR'2S&%(F2';!

September 2019

An Uncertain Future: The outlook for Iowa communities and flooding as our climate changes By James Boulter

Floodwater makes Interstate 29 impassable between Crescent and Loveland during the 2019 Iowa floods.

Source: Iowa Flood Recovery Advisory Board. https://floods2019.iowa.gov/ Iowa’s Floods of 2019 — a sign of things to come?

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!! M!

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!K!

%28?1&_*(IH!(/&!4)%(2'!829(!'&9?2#9*@1&!42'!1)(&P%&#(,'I!%1*8)(&!2,(%28&9!'&8)*#9!(/&!:&%*9*2#9!/,8)#*(I!8)3&9-!W26!8,%/!6*11!;12@)1!lWl!&8*99*2#9!%2#(*#,&!(2!*#%'&)9&!@&42'&!9()@*1*\*#;n!W26!i,*%31I!6*11!6&!'&:,%&!%)'@2#!:*2_*:&!)#:!2(/&'!lWl!&8*99*2#9n!T*11!6&!:*9%2U&'!)#:!*8?1&8&#(!g%)'@2#!#&;)(*U&h!9(')(&;*&9!(2!'&:,%&!)(829?/&'*%!%2#%&#(')(*2#9!24!%)'@2#!:*2_*:&n!!!G2:&19!/)U&!%1&)'1I!:&82#9(')(&:!(/)(!(/&!(*8*#;!)#:!')(&!24!%/)#;&9!*#!&8*99*2#9!L2'!o?)(/6)I9o!(2!'&)%/!'&:,%(*2#!()';&(9N!8)((&'!)9!8,%/!)9!(/&!/*;/!6)(&'8)'3!24!/,8)#!lWl!&8*99*2#9!2'!6/&#!(/&I!%&)9&!&#(*'&1IF!Z)'*2,9!#)'')(*U&9!24!?299*@1&!%1*8)(&!)#:!&#&';I!%/2*%&9!42'!(/&!'&8)*#:&'!24!(/&!%&#(,'I!%)#!@&!9,88)'*\&:!)9!g&8*99*2#9!9%&#)'*29h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c7ROFJN!*9!)192!%2#9*9(&#(!6*(/!928&!24!(/&!829(!)1)'8*#;!?2(&#(*)1!%1*8)(&!2,(%28&9F!72#U&'9&1IH!4,(,'&!%1*8)(&!*8?)%(9!)'&!;'&)(1I!'&:,%&:!*#!(/&!82'&!'2@,9(!c7RAFe!9%&#)'*2!V!)!'&9?2#9&!(/)(!&_%&&:9!6/)(!(/&!$F>F!/)9!?'&U*2,91I!%288*((&:!(2!*#!(/&!ABCJ!R)'*9!"%%2':!*#!&8*99*2#9!'&:,%(*2#9F!0@U*2,91IH!(/*9!9%&#)'*2!6*11!@&!(/&!829(!%/)11&#;*#;!(2!)%/*&U&F!./&!8*::1&!9%&#)'*2H!c7RKFJH!*9!,#1*3&1I!(2!'&9,1(!*#!;12@)1!)U&');&!(&8?&')(,'&9!'&8)*#*#;!@&126!(/&!)%%&?(&:!g9)4&!1*8*(h!24!)!A!k7!;12@)1!(&8?&')(,'&!*#%'&)9&CM!)#:!&U&#!c7RAFe!*9!,#1*3&1I!(2!8&&(!(/&!;2)1!24!CFJ!k7!9&(!2,(!*#!(/&!R)'*9!);'&&8&#(FCK!T/&#&U&'!?299*@1&H!6&!6*11!%28?)'&!(/&!82:&')(&!&8*99*2#9!9%&#)'*2!Lc7RKFJN!(2!c7ROFJ!L(/&!/*;/&'!&8*99*2#!9%&#)'*2NF!LK##!()#!3;;#%1.D!@&*!-&*#!1#(3.4,:M!!

!! J!

Upper Midwest climate impacts over the next 10-30 years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k+!?&'!:&%):&!2U&'!(/&!?)9(!42,'!:&%):&9!L+*;,'&!CNF!!! Figure 1. Temperatures in Iowa are already increasing

! Source: National Climate Data Center, Climate at a Glance, 2019 !"%'299!(/&!%2#(*;,2,9!$F>FH!829(!24!(/*9!/*9(2'*%)1!6)'8*#;!/)9!2%%,''&:!:,'*#;!(/&!6*#(&'!82#(/9F!W26&U&'H!(/&!1)';&9(!6)'8P9&)92#!(&8?&')(,'&!*#%'&)9&9!)'&!?'2S&%(&:!(2!2%%,'!/&'&!*#!(/&!G*:6&9(!L*#!@2(/!(/&!c7RKFJ!)#:!c7ROFJ!9%&#)'*29NF!!!.26)':!(/&!8*::1&!24!(/&!%&#(,'I!L@&(6&&#!ABMePABeJNH!)!;'2,?!24!MA!%1*8)(&!82:&19!?'&:*%(9!)#!*#%'&)9&!*#!)U&');&!)##,)1!(&8?&')(,'&9!'&1)(*U&!(2!(/&!?&'*2:!24!CDQePABBJH!*#%1,:*#;!6)'8!9&)92#!*#%'&)9&9F!./*9!6)'8*#;!*9!&*(/&'!KFA!k+!42'!c7RKFJ!2'!JFM!k+!42'!c7ROFJ!)#:!&_%&&:9!(/&!6)'8*#;!6&]U&!)1'&):I!9&&#!@I!)!4)%(2'!24!MPKF!L./&!)U&');&!(&8?&')(,'&!4'28!CDOePABCe!*9!%,''&#(1I!2#1I!CFMk+!6)'8&'!(/)#!(/)(!24!(/&!4*'9(!/)14!24!(/&!1)9(!%&#(,'IH!CDBCPCDeBNF!.2!9,88)'*\&H!#2(!2#1I!:2!@2(/!(/&!82:&')(&!)#:!/*;/P&#:!9%&#)'*29!?'&:*%(!*#%'&)9&9!*#!

!e!

(&8?&')(,'&H!@,(!(/&I!)192!?'2S&%(!)!/*;/&'!')(&!24!*#%'&)9&!*#!(&8?&')(,'&H!)!('&#:!(/)(!V!*4!%2#(*#,&:!V!6*11!8)3&!(/&!/2((&9(!9,88&'!:)I9!&U&#!/2((&'F!!=I!ABMBH!AD!c7G9!,9*#;!c7ROFJ!?'&:*%(&:!)#!)U&');&!24!MB!:)I9!6*(/!)!/&)(!*#:&_!2U&'!CBJ!k+!*#!X&9!G2*#&9H!*#%'&)9*#;!(2!KM!:)I9!@I!ABJBF!+2'!%28?)'*92#H!(/&'&!6&'&!2#1I!e!:)I9!(/)(!/2(!*#!ABBBFCJ!$#:&'!(/)(!9%&#)'*2H!&_('&8&!/&)(!)12#&!*9!?'2S&%(&:!(2!'&9,1(!*#!#)(*2#6*:&!1299&9!*#!1)@2'!)#:!)992%*)(&:!1299&9!*#!&%2#28*%!'&U&#,&!,?!(2!dDFO!@*11*2#!?&'!I&)'!*#!ABJB!L*#!ABCJ!:211)'9NFCe!!!N2&%&-.2!3%1!)#34()!.-;32(,!!Y)(*2#6*:&!&%2#28*%!:)8);&!)192!'&9,1(9!4'28!:&%'&)9&9!*#!);'*%,1(,')1!&44*%*&#%IH!?'*8)'*1I!:'*U&#!@I!*#%'&)9&:!9,88&'(*8&!/&)(!*#!(/&!G*:6&9(F!./*9!8&)9,'&!24!&44*%*&#%I!L@)9&:!2#!(/&!')(*2!24!2,(?,(9!24!%'2?!)#:!1*U&9(2%3!'&1)(*U&!(2!'&92,'%&!*#?,(9!9,%/!)9!1)#:H!1)@2'H!)#:!%)?*()1N!/)9!@&&#!*#%'&)9*#;!9*#%&!CDKOH!@,(!/)9!'&%&#(1I!&_/*@*(&:!;'&)(&'!U)'*)@*1*(I!)#:!*9!?'2S&%(&:!(2!:&%'&)9&!@)%3!(2!CDOB!1&U&19!928&(*8&!@&(6&&#!ABKB!)#:!ABMB!,#:&'!c7RKFJ!)#:!c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k+!;'&)(&'!(/)#!#&*;/@2'*#;!',')1!'&;*2#9F!!!!E_('&8&!/&)(!)192!,#*i,&1I!)44&%(9!',')1!?2?,1)(*2#9!6/&'&!8)#I!62'3!*#!2,(:22'!2%%,?)(*2#9H!6/&'&!928&!)'&!&%2#28*%)11I!U,1#&')@1&H!)#:!6/&'&!/&)1(/%)'&!)%%&99!8)I!@&!1*8*(&:FCD!+*#)11IH!12#;&'!;'26*#;!9&)92#9!'&9,1(*#;!4'28!6)'8&'!)U&');&!(&8?&')(,'&9!)192!?'2:,%&!;'&)(&'!)82,#(9!24!?211&#H!&9?&%*)11I!4'28!('&&9!*#!9?'*#;(*8&!)#:!#2_*2,9!?1)#(9!1*3&!');6&&:!*#!(/&!4)11H!&_)%&'@)(*#;!)11&';*&9!42'!8)#IF!+2'!928&!(/*9!8)I!'&9,1(!*#!82'&!/)I!4&U&'!9I8?(289p!42'!2(/&'9!*(!8)I!'&9,1(!*#!62'9&#&:!)9(/8)!)(()%39!)#:!&U&#!&8&';&#%I!'228!):8*99*2#9F!!!>()(*9(*%)1!&9(*8)(&9!24!:&)(/9!:,&!(2!&_('&8&!/&)(!%,''&#(1I!&_%&&:!CHMBB!:&)(/9!?&'!I&)'!*#!(/&!$F>FH!)#:!:*'&%(!)(('*@,(*2#!9(,:*&9!&9(*8)(&!2U&'!eJHBBB!/29?*()1!):8*99*2#9!:,'*#;!(/&!9,88&'!82#(/9F!!W29?*()1!:&)(/!'&%2':9!(&#:!(2!,#:&''&?2'(!(/*9!)9!(/&!%*(&:!%),9&H!6*(/!)#!)U&');&!24!eQB!:&)(/9!'&?2'(&:!)##,)11I!@&(6&&#!ABBePABCBFAB!7*(*&9!(/'2,;/2,(!(/&!G*:6&9(!'&;*2#!)'&!?'2S&%(&:!(2!/)U&!(/&!;'&)(&9(!.%2*#3,#,!*#!?'&8)(,'&!:&)(/9!4'28!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&H!'&)%/*#;!,?!(2!AHBBB!)##,)11I!@I!ABDB!,#:&'!c7ROFJF!./&9&!)::*(*2#)1!:&)(/9!8)I!@&!'&:,%&:!(2!OKB!@I!'&:,%(*2#9!*#!;12@)1!&8*99*2#9!(2!)%/*&U&!(/&!c7RKFJ!9%&#)'*2F!./&I!8)I!@&!4,'(/&'!'&:,%&:!@I!):)?()(*2#9!9,%/!)9!*#%'&)9&:!)U)*1)@*1*(I!24!)*'!%2#:*(*2#*#;F!c*93!24!:&)(/!4'28!&_('&8&1I!%21:!(&8?&')(,'&9!6*11!)192!:&%'&)9&!,#:&'!829(!%1*8)(&!?'2S&%(*2#!9%&#)'*29FAC!!5#%'&)9&9!*#!)U&');&!(&8?&')(,'&9!8)I!)192!1&):!(2!(/&!9?'&):!24!9&'*2,9!:*9&)9&9F!c&:,%&:!4'&i,&#%I!24!U&'I!%21:!?&'*2:9!*9!'&9,1(*#;!*#!(/&!#2'(/6)':!9?'&):!24!829i,*(2&9!%)''I*#;!U*',9&9!1*3&!T&9(!Y*1&!)#:!(*%39!*#4&%(&:!6*(/!aI8&!:*9&)9&!)#:!%2P*#4&%(*2#9!(/)(!/)U&!#2(!/*9(2'*%)11I!@&&#!)!/)\)':!*#!(/&!'&;*2#F!T)'8&'!9,88&'9!*#%'&)9&!(/&!?'&U)1&#%&!24!4'&9/6)(&'!)1;)1!@12289H!)#:!%)#!&_?29&!?&2?1&!(2!%I)#2@)%(&'*)!(/'2,;/!:'*#3*#;!6)(&'!9,??1I!%2#()8*#)(*2#!2'!(/'2,;/!

!! Q!

'&%'&)(*2#)1!,9&!24!)44&%(&:!1)3&9!)#:!9('&)89H!'&9,1(*#;!*#!93*#!)#:!&I&!*''*()(*2#H!'&9?*')(2'I!*11#&99H!;)9('2*#(&9(*#)1!*11#&99H!)#:!1*U&'!)#:!3*:#&I!:)8);&F!+2'!&_)8?1&H!*#!ABCK!*#!.21&:2H!0/*2H!/)14!)!8*11*2#!?&2?1&!6&'&!6)'#&:!(2!)U2*:!:'*#3*#;!(/&!6)(&'!:,&!(2!(2_*#9!2U&'6/&18*#;!)!6)(&'!('&)(8&#(!?1)#(!*#!a)3&!E'*&]9!6&9(&'#!@)9*#!)9!)!'&9,1(!24!)!/)'84,1!)1;)1!@1228F!5#!ABCOH!l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c*U&'!@)9*#9H!(/&!'&;*2#)1!('&#:!42'!(/&!$??&'!G*99*99*??*!c*U&'!@)9*#!L+*;,'&!AN!*9H!*#!8)#I!6)I9H!)9!'&1&U)#(!)9!526)]9!26#!'&%2':F!./*9!'&;*2#]9!)U&');&!)##,)1!')*#4)11!/)9!@&&#!9(&):*1I!'*9*#;!)(!)1829(!2#&!*#%/!?&'!:&%):&!V!)!(2()1!*#%'&)9&!24!2U&'!CA!?&'%&#(!9*#%&!(/&!8*:PCDQB9F!526)]9!9()(&6*:&!('&#:!2U&'!(/&!9)8&!?&'*2:!*9!9(*11!/*;/&'!)(!CFAJ!*#%/&9!?&'!:&%):&!V!(/&!1)';&9(!*#%'&)9&!)%'299!(/&!$F>F!!! Figure 2. Precipitation in the Upper Mississippi River Basin has steadily increased

Source: National Climate Data Center, Climate at a Glance, 2019 !a223*#;!42'6)':H!)U&');&!')*#4)11!)82,#(9!*#!526)!)'&!?'&:*%(&:!@I!)!;'2,?!24!AM!82:&19!(2!*#%'&)9&!@I!CBPAB!?&'%&#(!2U&'!(/&!CDQePABBJ!)U&');&!@I!ABOB!,#:&'!(/&!c7ROFJ!&8*99*2#!9%&#)'*2H!@,(!')*#4)11!*#%'&)9&9!:,&!(2!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&!&_%&&:!#)(,')1!U)'*)@*1*(I!2#1I!*#!(/&!9?'*#;(*8&!6*(/!9*;#*4*%)#(!%2#4*:&#%&FAK!./,9H!*(]9!@&((&'!(2!&_?12'&!(/&!4'&i,&#%*&9!24!&_('&8&!')*#4)11!&U&#(9!*#!2':&'!(2!;&(!)!4,11&'!,#:&'9()#:*#;!24!(/&!&44&%(9!24!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&F!!Y)(*2#)11IH!)!1)';&'!4')%(*2#!24!(2()1!)##,)1!')*#4)11!*9!4)11*#;!:,'*#;!&_('&8&!&U&#(9FAJ!./&'&!/)9!@&&#!)!KB!?&'%&#(!*#%'&)9&!9*#%&!CDQB!*#!(/&!#,8@&'!24!(62P:)I!?'&%*?*()(*2#!&U&#(9!6/29&!

Upper Mississippi River Basin Precipitation 48-Month Totals Ending in December

!O!

')*#4)11!(2()19!9&(!)!4*U&PI&)'!'&%2':H!6*(/!(/&!1)';&9(!*#%'&)9&9!*#!4'&i,&#%I!)#:!*#(&#9*(I!*#!(/&!G*:6&9(!)#:!Y2'(/&)9(!'&;*2#9FAe!R'2S&%(*#;!42'6)':H!)!;'2,?!24!MB!82:&19!?'&:*%(9!(/)(!@I!ABKCPABJBH!(/&'&!6*11!@&!3%&()#*!MB!?&'%&#(!82'&!24!(/&9&!&U&#(9!*#!(/&!G*:6&9(!,#:&'!@2(/!c7RKFJ!)#:!c7ROFJ!9%&#)'*29F!T/&#!?'&:*%(*#;!(/&!4'&i,&#%I!24!(/&9&!&U&#(9!42'!(/&!1)((&'!/)14!24!(/&!%&#(,'I!(/&!?'2S&%(*2#9!:*U&';&H!6*(/!(/&!126&'!&8*99*2#!9%&#)'*2!'&9,1(*#;!*#!)#!JBPeB!?&'%&#(!*#%'&)9&!@I!ACBB!)#:!82'&!(/)#!:2,@1&!(/)(!42'!(/&!/*;/&'!&8*99*2#!9%&#)'*2FAQ!!!+2%,9*#;!2#!(/&!G*:6&9(H!(/&'&!/)9!@&&#!)!KA!?&'%&#(!*#%'&)9&!*#!(/&!)82,#(!24!')*#!4)11*#;!*#!(/&!(2?!C!?&'%&#(!24!:)I9!6*(/!?'&%*?*()(*2#F!./*9!)#)1I9*9!%28?)'&:!(/&!829(!'&%&#(!(/'&&!:&%):&9!LCDOePABCeN!(2!(/&!4*'9(!9*_!:&%):&9!24!(/&!AB(/!%&#(,'IF!"#2(/&'!)#)1I9*9!2@9&'U&:!)!'&%&#(!*#%'&)9&!24!)'2,#:!MB!?&'%&#(!*#!2#&P:)I!')*#4)11!(2()19!:,'*#;!(/&!82#(/9!24!"?'*1!(/'2,;/!>&?(&8@&'!L+*;,'&!MNF!!! Figure 3. Upper Midwest Extreme Rainfall Events Becoming More Widespread

! Source: National Climate Data Center, Climate Extremes Index, 2019 !.&8?&')(,'&!*9!2#&!%',%*)1!:&(&'8*#*#;!4)%(2'!*#!(/&!4'&i,&#%I!24!&_('&8&!')*#4)11!&U&#(9H!@,(!*#%'&)9&:!(&8?&')(,'&!%)#!)192!?'2:,%&!:'2,;/(F!G)#I!4)%(2'9!*#41,&#%&!')*#4)11!('&#:9H!8)3*#;!i,)#(*()(*U&!?'&:*%(*2#9!24!4,(,'&!&U&#(9!928&6/)(!1&99!%2#4*:&#(F!./&*'!'&1)(*U&1I!9/2'(!:,')(*2#!)#:!98)11!;&2;')?/*%)1!9%)1&!)192!'&?'&9&#(!)!%/)11&#;&!42'!82:&1!?'2S&%(*2#9F!71*8)(&P*#:,%&:!%/)#;&9!*#!)(829?/&'*%!%*'%,1)(*2#!?)((&'#9!/&)U*1I!*8?)%(!(/&!4'&i,&#%I!)#:!:,')(*2#!24!&_('&8&!')*#4)11!&U&#(9!)9!@2(/!)(829?/&'*%!6)(&'!U)?2'!)#:!%12,:9!)'&!(')#9?2'(&:!@I!)(829?/&'*%!%*'%,1)(*2#!?)((&'#9F!!!.2!;*U&!)#!&_)8?1&H!)!9,88&'!')*#9(2'8!*#!526)!%)#!9()'(!6*(/!&U)?2')(*2#!2U&'!(/&!l,14!24!G&_*%2F!54!(/&!9,'4)%&!24!(/&!l,14!*9!6)'8&'H!82'&!6)(&'!6*11!&U)?2')(&H!)#:!*4!(/&!)*'!*9!6)'8&'H!*(!6*11!/21:!82'&!6)(&'F!./&!9(2'8!)192!'&1*&9!2#!(/&!(')#9?2'(!24!(/)(!6)(&'!@I!6*#:!)#:!9,@9&i,&#(!%12,:!42'8)(*2#F!"9!(/&!9I9(&8!82U&9!#2'(/6)':H!%12,:9!)'&!42'8&:!@I!%2#U&%(*2#!:,'*#;!(/&!:)I(*8&!/&)(!*#!(/&!%&#(')1!9()(&9F!./*9!%)#!;&#&')(&!8)99*U&!9(2'8!%12,:9!)#:!(/&!?2(&#(*)1!42'!%)()9('2?/*%!)82,#(9!24!')*#4)11!*4!(/&!12%)1!(&8?&')(,'&9!)#:!%1*8)(&!%2#:*(*2#9!)'&!'*;/(!V!928&(/*#;!(/)(]9!/)??&#*#;!8,%/!82'&!4'&i,&#(1I!:,&!(2!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&F!X&9?*(&!%/)11&#;&9H!:26#9%)1&:!82:&19!/)U&!?'2S&%(&:!*#%'&)9&9!*#!@2(/!4'&i,&#%I!)#:!*#(&#9*(I!24!9&U&'&!(/,#:&'9(2'89H!&9?&%*)11I!:,'*#;!(/&!9?'*#;H!*#!(/&!G*:6&9(!)#:!>2,(/&'#!l'&)(!R1)*#9!24!(/&!$F>FAO!!!!

!! D!

N2&%&-.2!3%1!)#34()!.-;32(,!!58?)%(9!24!&_('&8&!')*#4)11!8)I!1&):!(2!4122:*#;H!@,(!)192!)!U)'*&(I!24!2(/&'!&%2#28*%!1299&9!)#:!&_?&#9&9H!&9?&%*)11I!(')#9?2'()(*2#!*#4')9(',%(,'&!)#:!6)(&'!8)#);&8&#(!9I9(&89F!>,%/!&U&#(9!8)I!2U&'6/&18!:&9*;#&:!%)?)%*(I!24!9(2'86)(&'!9I9(&89F!g./&!$F>F!E#U*'2#8&#()1!R'2(&%(*2#!";&#%I!LER"N!&9(*8)(&9!(/)(!(/&!%29(!24!):)?(*#;!,'@)#!9(2'8!6)(&'!9I9(&89!(2!/)#:1&!82'&!*#(&#9&!)#:!4'&i,&#(!9(2'89!*#!(/&!G*:6&9(!%2,1:!&_%&&:!dKOB!8*11*2#!?&'!I&)'!L*#!ABCJ!:211)'9N!@I!(/&!&#:!24!(/&!%&#(,'I!,#:&'!&*(/&'!(/&!126&'!2'!/*;/&'!9%&#)'*2!Lc7RKFJ!2'!c7ROFJNFhAD!X)()!%211&%(&:!@I!(/&!+&:&')1!E8&';&#%I!G)#);&8&#(!":8*#*9(')(*2#!L+EG"N!2#!(/&!#,8@&'!)#:!%),9&!24!4&:&')1!:*9)9(&'!:&%1)')(*2#9!*#:*%)(&!)!9/)'?!*#%'&)9&!*#!&_('&8&!6&)(/&'!&U&#(9F!04!Ae!9&U&'&!9(2'8!:&%1)')(*2#9!*#!526)!9*#%&!CDJMH!)11!@,(!4*U&!/)U&!2%%,''&:!9*#%&!ABBB!)#:!CK!/)U&!)1'&):I!2%%,''&:!*#!(/&!%,''&#(!:&%):&FMB!LK##!3;;#%1.D!@&*!-&*#!3%348,.,!&@!1.,3,(#*!@*#E?#%28FN!!='*:;&9!)'&!9,@S&%(!(2!9,@9()#(*)1!6&)'H!@2(/!*#!(/&!42'8!24!&'29*2#!24!(/&*'!422(*#;9!L2'!g9%2,'hNH!)#:!24!(/&!'2):6)I9!6/&#!(/&!@'*:;&9!)'&!2U&'',#!6*(/!6)(&'!L%)11&:!g2U&'(2??*#;hN!421126*#;!/&)UI!')*#4)11!&U&#(9F!"%%2':*#;!(2!(/&!526)!>()(&!5#9(*(,(&!42'!.')#9?2'()(*2#H!%1*8)(&!82:&1!?'2S&%(*2#9!9/26!(/)(!9*_!@'*:;&9!*#!(/&!7&:)'!)#:!>3,#3!c*U&'!@)9*#!62,1:!@&!&_?29&:!(2!9('&)84126!%2#:*(*2#9!(/)(!&_%&&:!%,''&#(!:&9*;#!9()#:)':9F!gE)%/!12%)(*2#!*9!?'2S&%(&:!(2!/)U&!*#%'&)9&:!U,1#&')@*1*(I!4'28!82'&!4'&i,&#(!&?*92:&9!24!/*;/6)I!2U&'(2??*#;!)#:!?2(&#(*)1!@'*:;&!9%2,'FhMC!+,'(/&'H!g(/&!ER"!&9(*8)(&9!(/)(!(/&!)##,)1!%29(!24!8)*#()*#*#;!%,''&#(!1&U&19!24!9&'U*%&!2#!G*:6&9(&'#!@'*:;&9!*#!(/&!4)%&!24!*#%'&)9&:!9%2,'!:)8);&!4'28!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&!%2,1:!'&)%/!)??'2_*8)(&1I!dKBB!8*11*2#!*#!(/&!I&)'!ABJB!,#:&'!&*(/&'!(/&!126&'!2'!/*;/&'!9%&#)'*2!Lc7RKFJ!2'!c7ROFJNFhMA!!E_('&8&!')*#4)11!&U&#(9!)#:!9(2'89!8)I!/)U&!9*;#*4*%)#(!*8?)%(9!(2!/,8)#!/&)1(/H!@,(!?'*8)'*1I!(/'2,;/!4122:*#;!)9!:&9%'*@&:!@&126F!G)#I!%288,#*(I!6)9(&6)(&'!9I9(&89!)'&!)44&%(&:!@I!&_('&8&!')*#4)11!)#:!4122:*#;!&U&#(9F!./&!526)!X&?)'(8&#(!24!Y)(,')1!c&92,'%&9!'&%2':9!(/&!#,8@&'!24!:*9%/)';&9!24!')6!9&6);&H!)#!2@U*2,9!/&)1(/!/)\)':F!T/*1&!#2!42'8)1!9(,:I!,9*#;!(/&!:)()!24!(/&!CB!I&)'9!24!:*9%/)';&9!/)9!I&(!@&&#!8):&H!24!(/&!DBM!'&1&)9&!&U&#(9!4'28!"?'*1!ABCO!(2!G)'%/!ABCDH!eCA!6&'&!')*#^4122:*#;!*#:,%&:!&U&#(9FMM!+,'(/&'82'&H!526)!/)9!)(!1&)9(!CBHBBB!%2#%&#(')(&:!)#*8)1!4&&:*#;!2?&')(*2#9F!a);22#9!%)#!@&!2U&'(2??&:!)#:!#&61I!)??1*&:!8)#,'&!(2!

Water flowing over I-29 between US 34 and Iowa 2. Source: Iowa Flood Recovery Advisory Board. https://floods2019.iowa.gov/

!CB!

1)#:!%)#!%2#()8*#)(&!9('&)89!:,'*#;!')*#4)11!&U&#(9F!0(/&'!:*'&%(!*#S,'*&9!2'!&U&#!?'&8)(,'&!:&)(/9!8)I!'&9,1(!4'28!9(',%(,')1!4)*1,'&9H!2'!@&*#;!9(',%3!@I!2@S&%(9!L:&@'*9H!('&&9H!?26&'!1*#&9N!?'2?&11&:!@I!/*;/!6*#:9F!"::*(*2#)11IH!?26&'!2,();&9!8)I!1*8*(!)%%&99!(2!&1&%('*%*(I!42'!%',%*)1!8&:*%)1!&i,*?8&#(!)#:!8)I!1&):!?&2?1&!(2!,9&!;)9!2'!%/)'%2)1!;'*119!*#:22'9!1&):*#;!(2!%)'@2#!82#2_*:&!?2*92#*#;F!+*#)11IH!*#(&'',?(*2#9!(2!U*()1!(')#9?2'()(*2#!)#:!%288,#*%)(*2#!9I9(&89!8)I!?'2U*:&!)#!)::*(*2#)1!/)\)':!(2!U,1#&')@1&!?2?,1)(*2#9H!&9?&%*)11I!(/&!*11!)#:!:*9)@1&:FMK!>,'U&I9!24!?)(*&#(9!)4(&'!W,''*%)#&![)('*#)!9/26&:!(/)(!(/29&!6*(/!%)#%&'H!/I?&'(&#9*2#H!3*:#&I!:*9&)9&!'&i,*'*#;!:*)1I9*9H!%)':*2U)9%,1)'!:*9&)9&H!)#:!'&9?*')(2'I!*11#&99&9!6&'&!?)'(*%,1)'1I!)44&%(&:FMJ!!!./&!+2,'(/!Y)(*2#)1!71*8)(&!"99&998&#(!9,88)'*\&:!(/&!*8?)%(!24!(/&9&!('&#:9-!!

“An increase in localized extreme precipitation and storm events can lead to an increase in flooding. River flooding in large rivers like the Mississippi … and Missouri Rivers and their tributaries can flood surface streets and low-lying areas, resulting in drinking water contamination, evacuations, damage to buildings, injury, and death.” “By mid-century, the region is projected to experience substantial, yet avoidable, loss of life, worsened health conditions, and economic impacts estimated in the billions of dollars as a result of these changes.”!AB!!

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gCBBPI&)'!4122:h!&U&#(9!9,%/!)9!CDDMH!ABBOH!)#:!ABCCH!1&)U*#;!(/&8!(2!62#:&'!*4!(/*9!(/&!6)I!24!(/&!4,(,'&!*#!)!%/)#;*#;!%1*8)(&F!MQ!!R'&:*%(*2#9!24!4122:!4'&i,&#%I!)#:!9&U&'*(I!)'&!;&#&')11I!1&99!%2#4*:&#(!(/)#!(/29&!24!*#%'&)9&:!(&8?&')(,'&9!)#:!82'&!4'&i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i,&#(1IH!928&!'&;*2#9!*#!(/&!$F>F!6*11!&_?&'*&#%&!*#%'&)9&9!6/*1&!2(/&'9!8)I!9&&!:&%'&)9&9!*#!@2(/!(/&!4'&i,&#%I!)#:^2'!9&U&'*(I!24!'*U&'!4122:*#;!&U&#(9F!"1(/2,;/!?'2S&%(*2#9!42'!4122:*#;!)'&!%28?1*%)(&:H!%28?&11*#;!9(,:*&9!244&'!92@&'*#;!)99&998&#(9!24!4,(,'&!/)\)':9!24!*#1)#:!4122:*#;!)#:!?2(&#(*)1!%29(9!'&1)(&:!(2!4122:!:)8);&9!*#!(/&!G*:6&9(F!!!0#&!:&()*1&:!)#)1I9*9!24!CO!:26#9%)1&:!l7G9!%2#%1,:&:!(/)(!9?'*#;(*8&!%2#:*(*2#9!*#!(/&!1)(&'!(/*':!24!(/*9!%&#(,'I!8)I!@&!%2#9*9(&#(!6*(/!(/29&!:,'*#;!(/&!:&U)9()(*#;!CDDM!4122:9!24!(/&!G*99*99*??*!c*U&'!U)11&IF!X,'*#;!G)I!)#:!<,#&!24!(/)(!I&)'H!2U&'!CQ!8*11*2#!)%'&9!6&'&!4122:&:!2U&'!

“For the Cedar River Basin in Iowa, the 100-year flood ... of the 20th century is

projected to be a 25-year flood in the 21st century, with associated increased

frequency of flooding of agricultural land.”

— Iowa State University, Institute for Transportation37

!! CC!

!A grain bin collapses as 2019 flooding devastates western Iowa.

Source: Iowa Flood Recovery Advisory Board. https://floods2019.iowa.gov/

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“Climate projections suggest an increased risk of inland flooding under

either the lower or higher scenario (RCP4.5 or RCP8.5). Average annual

damages from heightened flooding risk in the Midwest are projected to be in

excess of $500 million (in 2015 dollars) by 2050.”

— National Climate Assessment 4

!CA!

5#!'&9?2#9&!(2!%,''&#(!)#:!)#(*%*?)(&:!*8?)%(9!24!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&H!(/&!>()(&!24!526)!'&%&#(1I!)::&:!dCJ!8*11*2#!(2!)!4,#:!:&9*;#&:!(2!/&1?!12%)1!;2U&'#8&#(9!'&?)*'!*#4')9(',%(,'&!:)8);&:!@I!(/&!'&%&#(!4122:!)#:!?'&?)'&!42'!(/&!#&_(!2#&F!5#9(*(,(&:!*#!ABCC!)4(&'!9&U&')1!8)S2'!4122:9H!(/*9!?'2;')8!)11269!12%)1!;2U&'#8&#(9!(2!'&()*#!928&!?2'(*2#!24!9)1&9!()_&9!(2!4*#)#%&!4122:!?'2(&%(*2#!9(',%(,'&9!9,%/!)9!1&U&&9!)#:!4122:6)119F!W26&U&'H!(/&!de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i,&#%*&9!*#%1,:&!(/&!#2'(/6)':!9?'&):!24!*#9&%(P@2'#&!:*9&)9&9!9,%/!)9!:&#;,&H!q*3)H!%/*3,#;,#I)H!)#:!I&1126!4&U&'!:,&!(2!*#%'&)9*#;!(&8?&')(,'&9!)#:!(/&!?'&9&#%&!24!4122:&:!%2#:*(*2#9!(/)(!@&#&4*(!(/&!'&?'2:,%(*2#!24!829i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limate Change in Iowa: an imperative to act !

“Our atmosphere and Earth’s surface are warming at an unprecedented rate. Globally, the five warmest years on record were each of the last five years, and extreme weather disasters are increasing in frequency and severity. In the Midwest states, we have seen changes in the form of dramatic variability in rainfall, higher humidity, and warmer nights.”

— Iowa Climate Statement 2019: Dangerous Heat Events Will Be More Frequent and Severe !C(!&#(!0+.!+0!.#&14!.+!'((.!1-2'&.(!<+&-)!!

G&&(*#;!(/&!&8*99*2#!'&:,%(*2#!()';&(9!%2#9*9(&#(!6*(/!(/&!;2)19!24!(/&!$FYF!R)'*9!71*8)(&!";'&&8&#(!6*11!'&i,*'&!)!9*;#*4*%)#(!%/)#;&!(2!(/&!62'1:]9!%,''&#(!&8*99*2#9!(')S&%(2'IH!6/*%/!%,''&#(1I!*9!2#!(')%3!(2!)!;12@)1!*#%'&)9&!24!QFe!k+F!EU&#!(/&!4,11!9&(!24!8&8@&'!#)(*2#9]!&8*99*2#!'&:,%(*2#!%288*(8&#(9!4)*1!(2!@'*#;!(/&!?1)#&()'I!)U&');&!(&8?&')(,'&!*#%'&)9&!(2!1&99!(/)#!e!k+!V!)#:!(/)(]9!*4!(/&I!)11!8&(!(/&8H!6/*%/!*9!#2(!%,''&#(1I!/)??&#*#;F!!./&!;12@)1!%288*(8&#(!(2!'&8)*#!6*(/*#!6/)(!,&-#!%2#9*:&'!(2!@&!g9)4&h!%1*8)(&!9?)%&!24!MFe!k+!LA!k7NH!)#:!(/&!$FYF!;2)1!24!AFO!k+!LCFJ!k7N!'&8)*#!4)'!2,(!24!'&)%/!)(!(/*9!(*8&F!./&!#)(*2#9!24!(/&!62'1:!8,9(!8)3&!9*;#*4*%)#(!?'2;'&99!(2!8&&(!(/*9!%/)11&#;&H!9()'(*#;!*#!(/&!4*'9(!'2,#:!24!#&;2(*)(*2#9!(2!g')(%/&(!,?!(/&*'!)8@*(*2#h!*#!ABABF!+*#)11IH!*(!/)9!@&%28&!i,*(&!%1&)'!*#!(/&!?)9(!4&6!I&)'9!(/)(!6&!8,9(!8)3&!%',%*)1!%/)#;&9!6*(/*#!I&)'9!V!#2(!:&%):&9!V!*4!6&!)'&!(2!)U2*:!(/&!829(!%)()9('2?/*%!?'2S&%(&:!2,(%28&9!24!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&FKJ!!!

“Citizens and stakeholders in the Midwest value their health and the well-

being of their communities—all of which are at risk from increased

flooding, increased heat, and lower air and water quality under a changing

climate.” — National Climate Assessment 4

!! CM!

./&9&!8)I!#2(!9&&8!1*3&!)!?)'(*%,1)'1I!1)';&!(&8?&')(,'&!*#%'&)9&9H!@,(!*#!%28?)'*92#!(2!(/&!)82,#(!24!6)'8*#;!(/)(!/)9!)1'&):I!()3&#!?1)%&!L)??'2_*8)(&1I!CFO!k+H!2'!C!k7NH!)#:!%2#9*:&'*#;!(/&!%1*8)(&!*8?)%(9!6&!)'&!)1'&):I!&_?&'*&#%*#;H!%2#(&8?1)(*2#!24!)!QFe!k+!6)'8&'!62'1:!)1829(!:&4*&9!(/&!*8);*#)(*2#F!+2'(,#)(&1IH!6&!/)U&!%28?,(&'!82:&19!(2!9,;;&9(!(2!,9!6/)(!(/&!%2#9&i,&#%&9!24!(/*9!62,1:!@&!V!)#:!(/&!?2(&#(*)1!1299&9!)'&!9();;&'*#;FKe!KQ!!/-2'&.(!17+21()!7&>(!(1+0+'21!1+).)!!

+2'!&_)8?1&H!1223*#;!2#1I!)(!$F>F!?'2S&%(*2#9!24!(/&!%29(9!24!*#1)#:!4122:*#;!@I!ABDBH!&%2#28*%!:)8);&9!8)I!(2()1!dO!@*11*2#!?&'!I&)'!,#:&'!(/&!c7ROFJ!&8*99*2#9!9%&#)'*2!L%28?)'&:!(2!(/&!?&'*2:!@&(6&&#!CDOB!)#:!ABCBNF!=,(!,#:&'!c7RKFJH!KQ!?&'%&#(!24!(/&9&!1299&9!8)I!@&!)U2*:&:F!c&1)(&:!:)8);&9!(2!'2):9!)'&!9(*11!;'&)(&'!6*(/!%29(9!&9(*8)(&:!)(!dAB!@*11*2#!)##,)11I!L*#!(/&!)@9&#%&!24!):)?()(*2#!8&)9,'&9N!)#:!9)U*#;9!24!JD!?&'%&#(!,#:&'!(/&!'&:,%&:!&8*99*2#!9%&#)'*2!Lc7RKFJNF!"::*(*2#)1!)##,)1!%29(9!'&1)(&:!(2!4122:*#;!,#:&'!c7ROFJ!*#%1,:&!@'*:;&9!LdCFB=NH!8,#*%*?)1!)#:!*#:,9('*)1!6)(&'!9,??1*&9!LdBFMA=NH!)#:!)1;)1!@12289!LdBFAB=NF!>*8*1)'1I!8*(*;)(*#;!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&!(2!)%/*&U&!(/&!c7RKFJ!&8*99*2#9!9%&#)'*2!*9!?'2S&%(&:!(2!'&9,1(!*#!9)U*#;9!@&(6&&#!MMPKO!?&'%&#(!42'!(/&9&!:)8);&9F!5#!9/2'(H!(/&!#)(*2#6*:&!%29(9!24!*#)%(*2#!)::!,?-!(/&!:*44&'&#%&!@&(6&&#!(/&9&!9%&#)'*29!*9!2U&'!dCe!@*11*2#!)##,)11I!@I!(/&!&#:!24!(/&!%&#(,'IF!!!X)8);&9!(2!%'2?9H!'2):6)I9H!)#:!@'*:;&9!)'&!%&'()*#1I!9*;#*4*%)#(!V!)9!%2#4*'8&:!@I!(/*9!9?'*#;]9!/,8)#!)#:!&%2#28*%!%29(9F!W26&U&'H!(/&9&!&_?&#9&9!?)1&!*#!%28?)'*92#!(2!(/&!(2()1!%29(9!24!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&!,#:&'!(/&!82:&')(&!)#:!/*;/!&8*99*2#!9%&#)'*29F!a299&9!2%%,''*#;!2#!%2)9()1!?'2?&'(*&9!)'&!&9(*8)(&:!)(!dCCO!@*11*2#!?&'!I&)'H!6*(/!2#1I!AA!?&'%&#(!9)U*#;9!)(!(/&!82:&')(&!&8*99*2#!9%&#)'*2F!>(*11!1)';&'!*9!(/&!&%2#28*%!@,':&#!24!?'&8)(,'&!:&)(/9!:,&!(2!&_('&8&!(&8?&')(,'&9F!./*9!*9!&9(*8)(&:!(2!&_%&&:!dCKB!@*11*2#!,#:&'!c7ROFJ!V!@,(!(/&!c7RKFJ!?)(/6)I!8)I!'&:,%&!(/&!%29(!24!(/29&!82'()1*(*&9!(2!1&99!(/)#!deB!@*11*2#FKO!!!

E9(*8)(&9!24!(2()1!:)8);&!(2!(/&!$F>F!&%2#28I!'&)%/!K!?&'%&#(!24!$F>F!lXR!,#:&'!%,''&#(!&8*99*2#9!L%2''&9?2#:*#;!(2!)#!*#%'&)9&!24!QFe!k+N!@,(!'&8)*#!%129&!(2!C!?&'%&#(!*4!6&!)'&!(2!)(()*#!(/&!829(!)8@*(*2,9!;2)1!24!AFO!k+!(&8?&')(,'&!*#%'&)9&!LCFJ!k7NFKD!"(!%,''&#(!$F>F!lXR!1&U&19!24!dCDFK!('*11*2#H!(/*9!%2''&9?2#:9!(2!)##,)1!&%2#28*%!%29(9!24!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&!:&%'&)9*#;!4'28!)1829(!dMOB!@*11*2#!:26#!(2!1&99!(/)#!dCBB!@*11*2#!?&'!I&)'F!=2(/!%29(9!)'&!U&'I!/*;/H!@,(!(/&*'!:*44&'&#%&!9,;;&9(9!(/)(!')?*:!*#U&9(8&#(!6*11!I*&1:!9*;#*4*%)#(!12#;P(&'8!:*U*:&#:9F!!D'2))2+0!)1(0&#2+)!7&>(!2'5-21&.2+0)!!

+*#)11IH!6/&#!%2#9*:&'*#;!(/&!8);#*(,:&!24!92%*&()1!%/)#;&9!*11,9(')(&:!*#!U)'*2,9!c7R9!2'!&8*99*2#!9%&#)'*29H!(/&!%/)11&#;&9!8)I!9&&8!:),#(*#;F!W26&U&'H!*(]9!%',%*)1!(2!,#:&'9()#:!(/)(!;12@)1!lXR9!*#%'&)9&!42'!344!9%&#)'*29!?'&9&#(&:!V!)#:!-&*#!*3;.148!42'!(/&!-&*#!3-9.(.&?,!&8*99*2#!'&:,%(*2#9F!./*9!*#:*%)(&9!(/)(!(/&!82:&19!:&9%'*@*#;!?21*%*&9!)#:!)%(*2#9!(2!8*(*;)(&!%1*8)(&!%/)#;&!:2!#2(!)99,8&!)!:26#(,'#!*#!(/&!;12@)1!&%2#28I!V!(/&I!8)I!*#9(&):!;&#&')(&!&%2#28*%!;'26(/F!!!$#:&'!c7ROFJH!62'1:!2*1!%2#9,8?(*2#!%2#(*#,&9!(2!'*9&!,#(*1!?&)3*#;!*#!ABQJ!421126&:!@I!)!9/)'?!:&%'&)9&F!=I!%28?)'*92#H!c7RAFeH!'&i,*'&9!(&%/#212;I!(2!'&82U&!%)'@2#!:*2_*:&!4'28!(/&!

“It is correct to say that flooding has always been a problem in Iowa.

However, a dispassionate look at scientific data reveals an

unmistakable trend toward more extreme weather that will only

accelerate and exacerbate the cycle of “flood-rebuild-repeat” that the state

is currently in.”!!!

E!Antonio Arenas, Iowa Flood Center47

!CK!

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!! CQ!

Appendix: Q&A on climate models and predictions !C7(#(!1&0!?!6203!+,.!'+#(!206+#'&.2+0!+0!1-2'&.(!17&0<(:!!!

>()'(!6*(/!(/&!71*8)(&!>%*&#%&!>?&%*)1!c&?2'(!)#:!(/&!Y)(*2#)1!71*8)(&!"99&998&#(H!@2(/!?'2:,%(9!24!(/&!$F>F!l12@)1!7/)#;&!c&9&)'%/!R'2;')8-!/((?9-^^666F;12@)1%/)#;&F;2U^F!!!

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./&!829(!*8?2'()#(!(&%/#*i,&!42'!8)3*#;!%1*8)(&!?'&:*%(*2#9!,9&9!;12@)1!%1*8)(&!82:&19!Ll7G9H!42'8&'1I!3#26#!)9!g;&#&')1!%*'%,1)(*2#!82:&19hNF!./&'&!)'&!:2\&#9!24!*#:&?&#:&#(!U&'9*2#9!24!(/&9&!6*(/!U)'I*#;!1&U&19!24!92?/*9(*%)(*2#!)#:!%28?1&_*(IH!928&!',##*#;!2#!928&!24!(/&!829(!?26&'4,1!%28?,(&'9!2#!(/&!?1)#&(F!5#!?')%(*%&H!@&%),9&!)11!(/&!)9?&%(9!24!(/&!?1)#&(!:&?&#:!2#!&)%/!2(/&'!V!(/&!%'I29?/&'&!L*%&N!'&)%(9!(2!%/)#;&9!;'&&#/2,9&!;)9!LlWlN!%2#%&#(')(*2#9!*#!(/&!)(829?/&'&p!(/&!/I:'29?/&'&!L2%&)#!)#:!@2:*&9!24!4'&9/6)(&'N!*#(&')%(9!6*(/!(/&!1*(/29?/&'&!L/)':!'2%3NH!)#:!(/&!@*29?/&'&!L1*4&N!:&?&#:9!2#!(/&8!)11!V!/,8)#3*#:]9!3#261&:;&!24!(/&9&!'&1)(*2#9/*?9!*9!'&?'&9&#(&:!@I!&i,)(*2#9!(/)(!4*(!2,'!9%*&#(*4*%!,#:&'9()#:*#;!24!&)%/!4)%(2'!@2,#:&:!@I!'&)92#)@1&!1*8*(9F!E)%/!&i,)(*2#!:&9%'*@&9!S,9(!2#&!&1&8&#(!24!(/&!E)'(/!9I9(&8H!@,(!(/&I!)'&!%28@*#&:!*#(2!)!%28?,(&'!?'2;')8!)9!8*11*2#9!24!1*#&9!24!%2:&!(2!42'8!)!l7GF!!!"9!(/&I!*#(&')%(!:,'*#;!)!82:&1!',#H!4)8*1*)'!?)((&'#9!@&;*#!(2!&8&';&!6/*%/!'&?'&9&#(!)#:!421126!(/&!%1*8)(&!?)((&'#9!24!(/&!'&)1!62'1:F!+2'!*#9()#%&H!(/&9&!82:&19!)'&!%28?1&(&!6*(/!%12,:9!)#:!?'&%*?*()(*2#H!6*#:9H!9(2'8!9I9(&89H!2%&)#*%!%*'%,1)(*2#H!)#:!8,1(*PI&)'!%1*8)(&!%I%1&9!)9!6&11!)9!'*9*#;!(&8?&')(,'&9H!*#%'&)9*#;!9&)!1&U&19H!%/)#;*#;!9&)92#9H!)#:!'&%&:*#;!*%&!9/&&(9F!!C7;!1&0!9(!.#,).!'+3(-)!20!5+-21;'&420<:!!!

5(]9!*8?2'()#(!(2!'&%2;#*\&!(/)(!82:&19!)'&!#&*(/&'!g'*;/(h!#2'!g6'2#;Fh!./&I!)'&!)11!)??'2_*8)(*2#9F!=,(!@&%),9&!6&!%)##2(!',#!)!%2#('211&:!&_?&'*8&#(!(2!:&(&'8*#&!(/&!4,(,'&!2,(%28&9!24!:')8)(*%!*#%'&)9&9!*#!;'&&#/2,9&!;)9!%2#%&#(')(*2#9H!6&!8,9(!'&1I!2#!%28?,(&'!82:&19!*#9(&):F!L"%(,)11IH!6&!3*#!%,''&#(1I!',##*#;!)#!,#%2#('211&:!&_?&'*8&#(!2#!2,'9&1U&9!)#:!2#1I!9,@9&i,&#(!;&#&')(*2#9!6*11!3#26!(/&!2,(%28&FN!=,(!6&!:2!#2(!(',9(!82:&19!@1*#:1IF!./&I!)'&!'2,(*#&1I!&U)1,)(&:!42'!(/&*'!g93*11h!*#!'&?'2:,%*#;!?)9(!%1*8)(*%!%2#:*(*2#9F!=I!*#?,((*#;!/*9(2'*%!%2#:*(*2#9!)#:!&U&#(9!LlWl!%2#%&#(')(*2#9H!921)'!)%(*U*(IH!U21%)#*%!&',?(*2#9H!&(%FN!6&!%)#!',#!(/&8!'&('29?&%(*U&1I!(2!9&&!/26!6&11!(/&I!8)(%/!(/&!2@9&'U&:!'&%2':!L(&8?&')(,'&9H!9&)!1&U&19H!&(%FN!l7G9!)'&!@2(/!(,#&:!)#:!U)1*:)(&:!@I!%28?)'*#;!9?&%*4*%!&1&8&#(9!24!82:&1!@&/)U*2'!(2!?/I9*%)1!?'2%&99&9!(/)(!%)#!@&!*#:&?&#:&#(1I!8&)9,'&:H!')#;*#;!4'28!&#&';I!@)1)#%&9H!(2!

!CO!

%12,:*#&99H!(2!1)';&P9%)1&!%*'%,1)(*2#!?)((&'#9F!0(/&'!4)%(2'9!%2#9*:&'&:!*#%1,:&!U)'*)(*2#9!*#!(/&!9,#]9!)%(*U*(IH!U21%)#*%!)%(*U*(IH!)#:!)*'!?211,(*2#!1&U&19F!!!+2'!82:&19!6*(/!:&82#9(')(&:!g93*11h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Figure 4. Policy Choices and Outcomes Can be Represented as Representative Concentration Pathways !Effects of RCPs 2.6 (green), 4.5 (blue), 6.0 (orange) and 8.5 (red) illustrated in net carbon emissions over time (top), equivalent carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere (middle) and global average temperature increase in degrees F (bottom). !

!Source: adapted from U.S. Global Change Research Program,

Climate Science Special Report, Chapter 4, 2017!

!! CD!

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!AB!

! Figure 5. Billion-dollar severe storms and floods are more frequent across U.S.*

! * Note All values are in 2019 dollars, with a 95 percent Confidence Interval, or CI. Source: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, National Center for Environmental Information !! !

21

References:

1 Hardy, K. & Cannon, A., (22 March 2019) “Iowa flooding: Damage from floodwaters reaches $1.6B, Gov. Kim Reynolds estimates” Des Moines Register Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2019/03/22/iowa-flooding-damage-estimate-governor-kim-reynolds-federal-flood-relief-trump-nebraska-missouri/3232934002/. 2 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, (May 2019). National Climate Report - April 2019. State of the Climate, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201904. 3 Miskimen, G, (14 June 2019) “It's a record: Iowa has wettest 12-month period since official records began in 1895” Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2019/06/14/iowa-climate-change-agriculture-flood-rain-farming-environment-weather-precipitation-temperature/1433128001/. 4 Smith, M. and Schwartz, J, (15 May 2019) “In Flood-Hit Midwest, Mayors See Climate Change as a Subject Best Avoided” New York Times. Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/15/us/midwest-flooding-climate-change.html. 5 Smith, M., (20 March 2019) “An Iowa Town Fought and Failed to Save a Levee. Then Came the Flood” New York Times. Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/20/us/flooding-iowa-hamburg.html. 6 Kenward, A, (July 2016). U.S Faces Dramatic Rise in Extreme Heat, Humidity, Climate Central, Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.climatecentral.org/news/sizzling-summers-20515#dangerdays. 7 Peters-Lidard, C, (August 2016). Heavy Precipitation. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicator-details/3962/. 8 Hansen, J., et al., (1983) “Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II”, 111 (4): Monthly Weather Review, 609 – 662, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0609:ETDGMF>2.0.CO;2. 9 USGCRP (2017) Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6. 10 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2016) Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852. 11 Cook, J, et al., (2016) “Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming” 11 (4): Environmental Research Letters, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002. 12 USGCRP (2018) Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018. 13 IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. 14 IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., (eds.). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. 15 Kenward, A, (July 2016). U.S Faces Dramatic Rise in Extreme Heat, Humidity, Climate Central, Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.climatecentral.org/news/sizzling-summers-20515#dangerdays. 16 EPA (2017) Multi-Model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. 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(2018) “Blue-green algae: Unclear water raises issues of danger” Iowa Policy Project, https://www.iowapolicyproject.org/2018docs/180621-cyano.pdf. 24 USGCRP (2017) Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.

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25 Peters-Lidard, C, (August 2016). Heavy Precipitation, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicator-details/3962/. 26 USGCRP (2017) Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6. 27 USGCRP (2017) Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6. 28 USGCRP (2017) Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6. 29 USGCRP (2018) Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018. 30 FEMA (May 2019) Data Visualization: Summary of Disaster Declarations and Grants, Federal Emergency Management Administration, Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.fema.gov/data-visualization-summary-disaster-declarations-and-grants . 31 Anderson, C., Claman, D., and Mantilla, R., (2015) Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, Iowa State University, Institute for Transportation, HEPN-707. 32 USGCRP (2018) Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018. 33 Data provided by Adam Schnieders, Acting ESD Policy Liaison & Water Quality Resource Coordinator, Iowa Department of Natural Resources. 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U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018. 37 Anderson, C., Claman, D., and Mantilla, R., (2015) Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, Iowa State University, Institute for Transportation, HEPN-707 38 EPA (2016), Climate Change Indicators: River Flooding Retrieved August 2019 from https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-river-flooding. 39 Iowa Flood Recovery Coordination Team (1994) The Floods of 1993 Iowa Flood Disaster Report, Part 1. Accessed at: http://publications.iowa.gov/id/eprint/10120 40 Cook, K.H., et al. (2008) “Springtime Intensification of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and Midwest Precipitation in GCM Simulations of the Twenty-First Century” Journal of Climate, 21 (23) pp. 6321-6340. doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2355.1. 41 USGCRP (2017) Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., et al. (eds.). 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Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., (eds.). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. 46 UNEP (2018) The Emissions Gap Report 2018, United Nations Environmental Program, Nairobi, Kenya. 47 Arenas Amado, A., (2018) The Dice are Loaded, IIHR—Hydroscience & Engineering and the Iowa Flood Center, Retrieved August 2019 from https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/timeline3/latest/embed/index.html?source=1zSbT3QFLJsDYCC7F8sf1Lq5Yqe0jO-BkdMmQ688O8do&font=Default&lang=en&initial_zoom=1&height=1000 48 USGCRP (2018) Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018. 49 USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., et al. (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018. 50 Wayne, G.P. (2013) The Beginner's Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways, Skeptical Science, Retrieved August 2019 from https://skepticalscience.com/rcp.php. 51 IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., (eds.). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

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