Zambia’s Forest Reference Emission Level for the UNFCCC

Presented at the Global Landscape Forum, COP21 on the 5th November 2015

Deuteronomy Kasaro1 and Abel M. Siampale2

1Climate Change SecretariatMinistry of Finance

2Forestry DepartmentMinistry of Lands

Presentation Structure

a. REDD+ Requirements

b. Technical Assessment for FREL

c. Scale, Scope and forest definition

d. FREL Components and Construction

e. Construction Approach for FREL

f. Challenges and consideration for Scale and Scope

Surface Area:

Forest Cover:

Vegetation Type:

Plantations:

Deforestation rate:

Drivers:

752,614Km² with a population of 13million

49.9 million ha (66% of land cover)

Maily Miombo woodlands: Semi-evergreen forests; Deciduous Forests; Evergreen forests; Shrub thickets, grasslands, wooded grasslands

61,000 ha

250,000 to 300,000ha per annum

Unsustainable agricultural practices; Charcoal and wood fuel use; Timber production; Infrastructure development (includes mining)

Background Information

Zambia - Geographical Location

Zambia’s Provinces & Major River Basins

The Four Elements of REDD+

4/CP.1512/CP.1713/CP.19

4/CP.1511/CP.19

1/CP.1615/CP.19

12/CP.1712/CP.19

Some initial direction for REL/RLs• REDD+ in Zambia should be nationally owned and help meet national objectives

• Align with UNFCCC, as possible. Consider other guidance, within capacity and consistent with national circumstances.

• Measuring performance should be more than just GHG emissions

• The focus should not be to only access carbon finance (multiple sources will be sought, both domestic and international; need for external support; importance of adaptation)

• A global contribution can follow a nationally-focused program; similarly finance will be attracted if Zambia can demonstrate results

• Consider a hybrid approach; can be dynamic, change over time

• Wait and see approach for submission to UNFCCC, while improving data and information

Purpose of a FREL

Domestic purpose: To measure the impact of policies and measures taken to protect forests

International finance: Countries are invited to voluntarily submit FRELs to be technically assessed “in the context of results-based payments”.Developing parties seeking to obtain and receive payments for results-based actions to supply a technical annex to the Biennial Update Report. A technical team of experts will analyze consistency of the reported results with the assessed FREL.

Global mitigation contribution: The FREL may be used to help measure Zambia’s “intended nationally determined contribution” (INDC) to the UNFCCC

Scale, scope and forest definition

Scale and Scope

Scale: National

Activities: Deforestation only

Pools: AGB, BGB, deadwood

Gases: CO2 only

Infrastructure development

•Settlements•Urban expansion

Wood extraction

•Charcoal production•Wood fuel collection•Logging

Agricultural expansion

•Shifting cultivation•Agriculture extensification

Environmental factors

•Uncontrolled fires

DIRECT or PROXIMATE DRIVERS

UNDERLYING DRIVERS

Policy & Legal framework

•Inconsistencies•Weak

Socio-economic

•Poverty•Low employment opportunities•Insecure land tenure

Demographic

•Population growth•Immigration•Population density

Institutional

•Poor funding•Low staffing levels•Lack of transport•Low staff morale

Environmental

•Climate variability•Soils•Topography

Forest LOSS

Forest Definition

Forest Act No 4 of 2015

FREL components and construction

• National Scale

• Historical Average

• Stratified according to Carbon Map 5 Classes (AD * EF)

• No adjustments for national circumstances

Construction approach

Forest Reference Level(average historical emissions)

Emission Reduction

historical emissions

Start REDD+ implementation

Forest Reference Emission Level (A benchmark for assessing performance)

Zambian Carbon Map

Overall accuracy: 85.63%

Zambia’s 2010 land cover map for GHG inventory development

Activity data

With compliments of

•Forestry Department (FD – MLNREP)

•Survey Department (SD – MLNREP)

•National Remote Sensing Center (NRSC)

•Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD)

•Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

www.zmb-nfms.org/portal

1. Image pre-processing

2. Collection of training data

3. Classification Iterative improvement of training dataset

4. Export, cleansing and area computation

Change Detection: iterative process

credit: R. d’Annunzio18

Combine datasets

2010 land cover map 2000 - 2010 forest loss 2010 - 2014 forest loss

Final map 2010 - 2014

Results of loss detection (Preliminary)

Hectares

Results loss detections and AA (Preliminary)

Construction methodology of the FREL

Pros Cons

Uses full set of data May not predict well (i.e. underestimate) expected BAU emissions from 2015-2020

Option 1: Reference period 2001 - 2014

MtC

O2e

q

Pros Cons

Easier to perform againstA better reflection of the future emissions from deforestation?

May be considered too short a reference period (average of submissions to date is around 10 yrs)

Option 2: Reference period 2011 - 2014

MtC

O2e

q

Construction methodology of the FREL

Pros Cons

Compromise between Option 1 & 2; a 9-year period is within the range of what is generally accepted

No spatially explicit data for years 2006 to 2010.

Option 3: Reference period 2006 - 2014

MtC

O2e

q

Construction methodology of the FREL

Pros Cons

Easier to perform againstA better reflection of the future emissions from deforestation?

Data is not available to quantify expected emissions in the future

MtC

O2e

q

Option 4: Adjustment (projection)

Construction methodology of the FREL

Zambia FREL

The proposed FREL suggests the best estimate at this time of emissions associated with land use change (forest to non-forest) in Zambia, for the near future, amount to an annual rate of

16.49 MtCO2 e/yr-1

National circumstances

• Energy demand• New districts• Infrastructure development• Mining activities• Rural to Rural migration• Policy and Legal Reforms

Forest Act / Forestry Policy Urban and Regional planning Act

Key Challenges to data Needs• The cost of satellite images (i.e. high res.) to

support a wall to wall approach to cover the country

• Appropriate technology and methodologies which are sustainable

• The level of forest loss to be assessed (deforestation, degradation, fires)

• Varying forest types in the country

Approaches to historical Forest Degradation

• Zambia has not yet addressed this issue because an appropriate methodology [for dry forest (Miombo)] has not been identified

Considerations for selecting Scale and Scope

• Capacity to undertake the work and monitor the change

• The approach for REDD+ Implementation• Availability of data• The need to track the changes and

implementation of activities

Way forward• Proposed future Improvements

Additional land use assessment – Option 3 (2006) Measuring degradation Including gain & regrowth Additional pools

Soil Carbon Litter

Including emissions from fire, including non-CO2 gases (Collaborate with ZEMA)

National Circumstances Monitoring, Assessment, Quantification

Thank you for your attentionwww.zmb-nfms.org/portal