Post on 30-Dec-2015
description
Yukon Flats Regional Government
Feasibility Study
Prepared For:
The University of Alaska Fairbanks Engineering Science Management and Civil Engineering Departments…
and…
The Residents of the Communities of the Yukon Flats
Presented By:
Peter Hewko,
Kathy Campbell,
Mark Parrott, P.E.,
Michael Schmetzer, P.E.,
Michele Desrochers, P.E.,
UAF Masters Candidates
Overview• Introduction• Regional Profile • Standards for Incorporation• Borough Structure Options• Decision Analysis• Steps to Incorporation• Project Management Requirements• Borough Operational Costs• Potential Revenue Sources• Financial Assessment• Conclusions
Yukon Flats Boundaries
Introduction
• Satisfies two primary purposes– Provide the Counsel of Athabascan Tribal
Governments (CATG) with a preliminary planning document
– Satisfy graduate degree requirements of authors
Considerations
• Issues Forcing the Discussion– Threat of Annexation
• Originates with FNSB and NSB
– Oil and Gas Potential• Land Exchange• Fish & Wildlife Service Interests• Assessment of Potential Resources
Benefits and Detractors
• Impact to Traditional Way of Life
• Self-Determination and Control
• Decline of State Oil Revenue
• Cost of Education
• Cost of Local Government
• Economic Growth Potential
Community• Population Approximately 1300• Area 53,000 square miles• 9 Communities• Council of Athabascan Tribal Government• Native Corporation
– Doyon, Limited– Tanana Chiefs Conference
• Proposed Borough Boundaries Identical to Existing Rural Education Attendance Area 13
Proposed Yukon Flats Borough
Regional ProfileDemographic Summary
Population Change over Time
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
Regional ProfileArctic Village
• Population: 146• Population increasing• Median Family Income: $19,000
Regional ProfileBeaver
• Population: 67• Population Decreasing• Median Family Income: $29,792
Regional ProfileBirch Creek
• Population: 43• Population Increasing• Median Family Income: $13,750
Regional ProfileChalkyitsik
• Population: 84• Population Increasing• Median Family Income: $16,875
Regional ProfileCircle
• Population: 99• Population Decreasing• Median Family Income: $11,250
Regional ProfileFort Yukon
• Population: 594• Population Decreasing• Median Family Income: $32,000
Regional ProfileRampart
• Population: 21• Population Decreasing• Median Family Income: $23,438
Regional ProfileStevens Village
• Population: 76• Population Declining• Median Family Income: $11,563
Regional ProfileVenetie
• Population: 188• Population Increasing• Median Family Income: $21,429
Standards for Incorporation
• Alaska Constitution, Article X
• Alaska Statutes
• Alaska Administrative Code
• Bottom Line - Yukon Flats area appears able to meet all requirements
Borough Structure Options
• Three Classifications of Boroughs– Home Rule Borough– First-Class Borough– Second-Class Borough
Existing Boroughs in Alaska16 organized boroughs
• Home Rule (8 of 16)– Sitka, Juneau, Anchorage, Yakutat, Lake and
Peninsula, Denali, Northwest Arctic, North Slope.– Over half of Alaska’s population– Four of Five most recent boroughs
• 2nd Class (7 of 16)– Bristol Bay, Ketchikan, Gateway, Kodiak, Kenai,
Mat-Su, Fairbanks, Aleutians East
• 3rd Class – No Longer Allowed by Law (1 of 16)– Haines
Decision to Form Borough• Multiple Criteria
– Quantitative Impacts• Costs• Revenues• Etc.
– Qualitative Impacts• Quality of life• Political• Social• Etc.
How do we consider all issues and “calculate” an answer?
Decision Analysis• Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
– Identify the decision– Identify the criteria applicable to the decision– Prioritize the criteria– Develop pair-wise comparison matrices of
each alternative with each criteria– Determine if the consistency level is
acceptable– Calculate final ranking
Decision Analysis
• Decision– What type of government structure is best for Yukon
Flats?
• Alternatives– Unorganized Borough– Home Rule Borough– 1st Class Borough– 2nd Class Borough
• Criteria– Surveys
Decision AnalysisSurvey to Prioritize Criteria for AHP
• Demographic Information Requested– Name– Location of residence– Title or affiliation– Description of personal interest in topic of
borough formation
Decision AnalysisSurvey to Prioritize Criteria for AHP
• Prioritize the following in order of importance:– Cost of new borough government– Local planning, platting, and land use powers– Avoidance of annexation– Local control and financing of Public Education– Tribal Government– Tax $$$ from TAPS– Tax $$$ from future gas line– Tax $$$ from future Yukon Flats oil and/or gas
development
Decision AnalysisSurvey to Prioritize Criteria for AHP
• Identify other critical issues or criteria associated with borough formation in the Yukon Flats
• Do you believe the area would benefit from the creation of a borough government? Why or why not?
Decision Analysis• Criteria Considered Ranking
– Tribal Government 0.27– Annexation 0.23– Cost of Government 0.16– Tax on TAPS 0.12– Tax on Future Gas Line 0.06– Tax on Future Oil & Gas 0.05– Property Tax 0.04– Public Education 0.03– Area-wide Powers 0.02– Planning, Platting, and Land Use 0.02
Decision Analysis• Pair-Wise Comparison
Annexation
Unorganized Borough Home Rule First Class Second Class
Unorganized Borough 1.00 0.11 0.11 0.11
Home Rule 9.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
First Class 9.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Second Class 9.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Total 28.00 3.11 3.11 3.11
Decision Analysis• Calculation of Weights of Pair Wise Comparison
Normalized Annexation
nmax = 4.000 CR= -1E-16
Unorganized Borough
HomeRule
First Class
SecondClass
Row Average
Unorganized Borough 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035
Home Rule 0.321 0.321 0.321 0.321 0.321
First Class 0.321 0.321 0.321 0.321 0.321
Second Class 0.321 0.321 0.321 0.321 0.321
Decision AnalysisDevelopment Options
Borough Option Final Ranking
Unorganized 0.26
Home Rule 0.27
1st Class 0.24
2nd Class 0.24
Recommended Borough Structure
• Home-Rule– Provides Greatest Degree of Self-
Determination– Charter Powers Offer Flexibility– Unified Home Rule with absorption of City of
Ft. Yukon would probably be most efficient
Path to Incorporation
• Preliminary Study– Can enough money be raised to support a local
government?– Will people support a local borough government?
• Written Charter– Local Charter Commission– Retain Legal Expertise
• Submit Charter to the Local Boundary Commission
Path to Incorporation
• Hold Election– Vote on issue of borough formation– How to pay for local government– Elect mayor– Elect assembly members
Path to IncorporationProject Management Requirements
• Experienced & Committed PM
• Qualified Resources
• Facilities
• Schedule
• Funding
Cost Estimate for Local Government Study, Cost Analyses, and Preparation of Written Charter
Budget Category 2005Primary Functional Requirements Local Government Consultant $60,000Attorney's Fees $40,000Travel - Consultant/Atty to Fort Yukon $10,000Travel - Charter Members to Fort Yukon $60,000Per Diem $17,000Printing and Publications $5,000Telephone and Postage $5,000 Subtotal $197,000 Contingency 25% $49,250
ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE $246,250
Borough Operational Costs
• Education
• Utilities
• Government
Borough Operational CostsEducation
• Yukon Flats REAA 13– Average Daily Student Count is 307– Assume Same Needs
• Approximate annual cost is $6.5 million
• 4 mills, Phased over 4 years
Borough Operational CostsUtilities
Borough Operational CostsUtilities
• High Electricity Costs – Offset by Power Cost Equalization• Telephone, School Internet• Varied Water Sources
– Washeteria– Jugs– Community and Private Wells– Rivers, Lakes
• Sewer– Primarily Honeybuckets and Lagoons– Outhouses– Septic Tanks
• Landfills• Initial Operations and Management Budget of $1.7 million
Borough Operational CostsGovernment
• Seat of Government
• Mayor and Assembly
• Legal
• Finance
• Planning and Public Works
• Tax Assessment
• Total Initial Cost of $1.3 million
Potential RevenueState and Federal Sources
• Alaska New Borough Organizational Grant• Federal-Related PILT• Federal PILT for Schools• Power Cost Equalization• Property Tax – Oil & Gas Property• Potential Oil & Gas Revenues• North Slope Natural Gas• Shallow Coal Bed Methane• Grant Land Entitlement• Miscellaneous Federal Grants
Potential RevenueLocal Revenue Sources
• Property Tax– Real and/or Personal Property– Oil and Gas
• Sales Tax Options– General Sales Tax– Aviation Fuel Sales– Alcohol License Fees– Commercial Fisheries
• Employment Tax– Annual Head Tax
• Mineral/Timber Severance Tax• Industry-Related Payment in Lieu of Taxes• Gaming
Operational Cost Analysis
Property Tax Mill Rate
Year 8 12 16 20
2005 $470 $1,830 $3,191 $4,551
2010 -$1,894 -$712 $470 $1,652
2015 -$2,526 -$1,488 -$451 $585
All values in $1000
Operational Cost AnalysisBudget Surplus Invested at 7.5%
Property Tax Mill Rate
Year 12 16 20
2005 $1,867 $3,239 $4,612
2010 $2,336 $11,663 $20,991
2015 -$3,236 $16,579 $36,395
2020 -$15,914 $18,205 $52,324
2030 -$73,467 $8,766 $91,000
All values in $1000
Conclusions
• Local Borough Government Feasible– Home Rule
• Property Tax
• Invest Initial Surplus for Future
• More In-Depth Study Recommended
Special Thanks To
• Bruce Thomas• Dan Brockhorst• Jim Mery• Jim Whitaker• Pete Hallgren
• Robert Perkins• Bob Carlson• Leroy Hulsey• Yuri Shur• David Barnes
Photo Acknowledgements
Bill Hess
Mark Parrott
Questions
Thank You