The brain is fundamentally a lazy piece of meat.“Gregory Berns

Fake Graph #1B

rain

Dev

elop

men

t

Time – Lots of It

Fake Graph #2In

form

atio

n

Time

Two Fake GraphsB

rain

vs.

Info

Time

It’s not information overload, it’s filter failure.Clay Shirkey

“

Multitasking is the ability to screw everything up simultaneously.Jeremy Clarkson

“

M

1

U

2

L

3

T

4

I

5

T

6

A

7

S

8

I

10

K

9

G

12

N

11

I

13

S

14

M

15

Y

16

T

17

H

18

I

19

C

20

A

21

L

22

2x as long to finish a single task

Up to 50% more errors

Overall: 40% drop in productivity

Brain fatigue

1 REST 2 EAT

3 MOVE 4 PLAN

5 CHEAT

There can be as much value in the blink of an eye as in months of rational analysis.

Malcolm Gladwell

“

A bat and ball cost $1.10.The bat costs $1 more than the ball.How much does the ball cost?

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antiwar demonstrations.

Bank Teller

FeministBankTeller

TornadosLightningAccidents

AsthmaBotulismDiabetes

vs.

Box A Box B50 Yellow Balls50 Green Balls

? Yellow Balls? Green Balls

But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.“Donald Rumsfeld

1 Surface temperature of the sun?

2 The year of Alexander the Great’sbirth?

3 Area of the Asian continent?

From Software Estimation by Steve McConnell (Microsoft Press, 2006) and is © 2006 Steve McConnell. All rights reserved.

The average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.“Philip Tetlock

How old was Gandhi when he died?

33.927.4 48.6

33.927.4 48.6

55.5

Actor-observer bias | Ambiguity effect | Anchoring | Anthropic bias | Attentional bias | Availability heuristic | Bandwagon effect | Beneffectance | Bias blind spot | Choice-supportive bias | Clustering illusion | Confabulation | Confirmation bias | Congruence bias | Conjunction fallacy | Consistency bias | Contrast effect | Cryptomnesia | Déformation professionnelle | DunningKruger effect | Egocentric bias | Endowment effect | Exposure-suspicion bias | Extreme aversion | False consensus effect | Focusing effect | Forer effect | Framing | Frequency illusion | Fundamental attribution error | Gambler's fallacy | Halo effect | Herd instinct | Hindsight bias | Hostile media effect | Hyperbolic discounting | Illusion of asymmetric insight | Illusion of control | Illusion of transparency | Illusory correlation | Impact bias | Information bias | Ingroup bias | Irrational escalation | Just-world phenomenon | Lake Wobegon effect | Loss aversion | Ludic fallacy | Mere exposure effect | Modesty bias | Neglect of prior base rates effect | Neglect of probability | Notational bias | Obsequiousness bias | Observer-expectancy effect | Omission bias | Optimism bias | Outcome bias | Outgroup homogeneity bias | Overconfidence effect | Planning fallacy | Positive outcome bias | Post-purchase rationalization | Primacy effect | Projection bias | Pseudocertainty effect | Reactance | Recency effect | Reminiscence bump | Rosy retrospection | Selective memory | Selective perception | Self-fulfilling prophecy | Selfserving bias | Status quo bias | Subadditivity effect | Suggestibility | Survivorship bias | System justification | Telescoping effect | Texas sharpshooter fallacy | Trait ascription bias | Ultimate attribution error | Unacceptability bias | Unit bias | Von Restorff effect | Zero-risk bias

Douglas Hofstadter

Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.“

We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.“Daniel Kahneman

1 SLOW DOWN 2 WBS IT

3 GO OUTSIDE 4 PRE-MORTEM

5 BE SAD 6 REMEMBER

Memory is fiction… not just a replaying, but a re-writing.“Daniel Levitin

RestTiredAwakeDreamSnoreBedEat

SlumberSoundComfortPillowWakeNight

Rest

Sleep

Aardvark

Night

Never memorize something that you can look up.“Albert Einstein

“Piers Steel

Motivation =Expectancy x Value

Impulsiveness x Delay

Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.“Cyril Parkinson

1 EXTERNALIZE 2 BREAKDOWN

3 WORST 1ST 4 PUBLIC

5 OBSTACLES 6 FOCUS

The best way to reduce stress in your life is to stop screwing up.“Roy Baumeister

Blog, slides, references:

www.carsonpierce.comcarson@carsonpierce.com

@carsonpierce