•You Make the Call!: (Leslie Wanek and David Brown) x3!•…Jaret Rogers and SPC’s David Bright

•Workshop: David Craft, Valerie Scheele, Paul Iniguez, Jessica Nolte, Gregory Harris and all the presenters/partners of SAWS.

Customer Needs and Service Innovation - analyzing the forecast process:

Who is your customer?What is most important to them?

How can you serve them best?

Customer Needs and Service Innovation - analyzing the forecast process:

Who is your customer?What is most important to them?

How can you serve them best?Where will the impact be?When will “events” occur?

Customer Needs and Service Innovation - analyzing the forecast process:

Who is your customer?What is most important to them?

How can you serve them best?Where will the impact be?When will “events” occur?

1st Briefing – SuperBowl XLII FAA/Homeland Security

Who? What? How?

Phoenix WFO AFD outline:Identify primary customers and their concernsIdentify most significant hazards to emphasize

Some important customers/partners:• ARTCCs, ATCTs, TRACONs, AFSSs, FBOs, Nat./Reg. Airlines, GA, Military,

??? Required Weather Information (NWS Directive10-803

Support to Air Traffic Control Facilities) – not limited to:• Convective weather including thunderstorm timing, tops, movement,

intensity, and character such as broken and solid lines or large clusters

• Operationally significant ceilings/visibility, cloud tops• Winds and temperatures (surface and aloft), wind shear• Operationally significant pressure changes• Precipitation• Turbulence• Icing• Volcanic ash

Some important customers/partners:• ARTCCs, ATCTs, TRACONs, AFSSs, FBOs, Nat./Reg. Airlines, GA, Military,

??? Required Weather Information (NWS Directive10-803

Support to Air Traffic Control Facilities) – not limited to:• Convective weather including thunderstorm timing, tops, movement,

intensity, and character such as broken and solid lines or large clusters

• Operationally significant ceilings/visibility, cloud tops• Winds and temperatures (surface and aloft), wind shear• Operationally significant pressure changes• Precipitation• Turbulence• Icing• Volcanic ash

2nd Brief – Tuesday Morning 22/15Z

Zonal Flow

SNEAK PEEK!!!!!!

2nd Brief – Tuesday Morning 22/15Z

Pueblo WFO AFD outline:Who will be affected?

What might occur?

Southern Rockies: With broad zonal flow across the Rockies,

occasional moderate mountain wave turbulence should be expected

Mountain wave most likely over and up to 500 miles east of north-south oriented ranges (perpendicular to flow)

Hot spots include areas east of the Colorado Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in NE NM

Traffic flow will likely move through this region regardless of moderate turbulence (re-route if reliably severe)

3rd Brief – Monday Evening 29/00Z

3rd Brief – Monday Evening 29/00Z

ZAB CWSU Partner Briefing (freeform):What kind of useful information might we be

able to provide to Air Traffic Managers?

Model trends: Stronger trough Spaghetti is significantly more coordinated,

indicates greater forecast confidence GFS (bold dark height contour) shows consistency

over one week period with trough depth/position GFS shows a more progressive pattern than other

models

4th Brief – Saturday Evening 03/00Z

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN CA TO GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...

SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED AS STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ACROSS NV/AZ TO FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

PHX

4th Brief – Saturday Evening 03/00Z

ZAB CWSU Partner Briefing (freeform):What kind of ATC problems would the 80kt jet at FL180

induce?Who would be affected?

+80kt jet at FL180 from Blythe, CA to Phoenix, AZ: Low-mid level occasional moderate turbulence,

particularly over and east of mountain terrain Compression along ARLIN approach to PHX!

5th Brief – Sunday Evening 03/2330Z

5th Brief – Sunday Evening 03/2330ZPHX Aviation Forecaster:

Write your 04/00Z TAF

PHX

PHX

PHX

PHX

PHX

PHX

PHX

PHX

PHX

PHX

PHX

KPHX GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/03/2008 1800 UTC DT /FEB 4 /FEB 5 /FEB 6 HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 N/X 48 55 41 58 41 TMP 58 54 53 52 51 48 50 52 53 51 48 45 43 43 50 55 56 52 48 43 55 DPT 39 42 42 42 43 43 39 38 37 35 33 33 33 32 30 27 25 28 29 31 29 CLD BK BK BK OV OV BK OV BK SC SC CL CL CL CL CL FW FW CL CL CL SC WDR 17 19 15 23 26 25 27 27 28 26 32 30 36 32 32 29 26 27 09 10 10 WSP 07 15 13 17 09 06 08 11 10 07 06 07 05 04 03 04 04 02 03 04 03 P06 42 43 41 24 11 1 0 0 0 0 2 P12 50 48 11 2 1 Q06 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 1 1 0 0 0 T06 6/ 1 5/ 3 3/ 0 6/ 0 4/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 T12 5/ 3 6/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 3 0/ 0 POZ 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 6 0 0 1 2 1 4 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 CIG 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

1 = ceiling height of < 200 feet;2 = ceiling height of 200 - 400 feet;3 = ceiling height of 500 - 900 feet;4 = ceiling height of 1000 - 3000 feet;5 = ceiling height of 3100 - 6500 feet;6 = ceiling height of 6600 - 12,000 feet;7 = ceiling height of > 12,000 feet;

5th Brief – Sunday Evening 03/2330ZPHX Aviation Forecaster:

Write your 04/00Z TAF

5th Brief – Sunday Evening 03/2330ZPHX Aviation Forecaster:

Write your 04/00Z TAFA good start:

KPHX 032335Z 040024 21013G23KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080 FM0600…

KPHX 031735Z 031818 VRB05G28KT P6SM SCT070 BKN090 FM1900 23017G32KT SCT070 BKN090 FM2100 20012G22KT SCT060 BKN090 FM2300 19010KT P6SM SCT060 BKN090 FM0000 20014KT P6SM FEW050 BKN100 FM0100 19013KT P6SM BKN100 FM0200 19016KT P6SM FEW045 BKN065 BKN100 FM0300 20007KT P6SM BKN065 BKN090 BKN110 FM0400 20011G23KT P6SM BKN060 BKN075 BKN100 FM0500 26014KT P6SM FEW035 SCT060 BKN100 FM0600 31020KT P6SM FEW030 SCT065 BKN080 FM0700 32008KT P6SM SCT033 BKN100 BKN110 FM0800 32011KT P6SM FEW033 SCT045 BKN070 FM0900 31011KT P6SM FEW030 BKN041 BKN100 FM1000 29009KT P6SM FEW040 OVC060 FM1200 24015KT 4SM –RA BR BKN029 OVC040 FM1300 21006KT P6SM SCT032 BKN040 BKN080 TEMPO 1314 28017KT 6SM –RA BR FEW027 BKN030 OVC040 FM1400 25007KT P6SM –RA SCT032 BKN040 BKN080 FM1500 01013KT P6SM FEW027 BKN034 BKN043 FM1600 09009KT P6SM SCT045 BKN075 BKN100 TEMPO 1617 02015G31KT P6SM TSRA FEW030 BKN035CB BKN080 FM1700 05014KT P6SM SCT026 BKN035 BKN090 FM1800 VRB03KT P6SM FEW055 BKN090 BKN110

KPHX 031735Z 031818 21015G30KT P6SM SCT070 BKN090 FM2300 19014KT P6SM SCT050 BKN100 FM0300 20013G23KT P6SM BKN060 FM0700 31010KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100 FM1200 23008KT P6SM –RA BR SCT025 BKN040 OVC080 TEMPO 1214 25015KT 5SM –RA BR BKN030 OVC040 FM1600 08010KT P6SM SCT045 BKN075 BKN100 TEMPO 1617 02015G31KT P6SM TSRA FEW030 BKN035CB BKN080 FM1800 VRB03KT P6SM BKN090

KPHX 032335Z 040024 21013G23KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080 FM0700 31010KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100 FM1200 23015KT 5SM –RA BR BKN030 OVC050 FM1600 08010KT P6SM SCT045 BKN075 BKN100 TEMPO 1617 02015G31KT P6SM TSRA BKN035CB FM1900 09013KT P6SM SCT090

What did we learn?1. Primary customers and concerns

2. Address aviation-specific wx concerns3. Communicate increased forecast confidence

4. Aviation-specific wx forecast criteria

5. Practical “event” TAF concepts

Customer Needs and Service Innovation - analyzing the forecast process:

Who is your customer?What is most important to them?

How can you serve them best?Where will the impact be?When will “events” occur?

Matt LorentsonZAB Center Weather Service Unit

(505) 856-4691matthew.lorentson@noaa.gov