Afghanistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan WarPakistan War

It’s significanceIt’s significance

AFGHANISTAN

PAKISTAN

Our questionsOur questions

What is the war all about in What is the war all about in the local context?the local context?

Why should we care? Is it Why should we care? Is it worth American lives?worth American lives?

Fundamental questionsFundamental questions

What’s at stake in the war What’s at stake in the war with the Taliban / Al Qaeda?with the Taliban / Al Qaeda?

Why should we put our young Why should we put our young people there?people there?

Below

Shibar

Pass

Bottom

of

Shibar

Pass

Above the Shibar Pass

Village Village in in

BamianBamian((Qala-e-Qala-e-Sabzi).Sabzi).

Historical BackgroundHistorical Background

1993 – 1973 Zaher Shah1993 – 1973 Zaher Shah 1973 – 1978 Da’ud Khan1973 – 1978 Da’ud Khan 1978 – 1992 Afghan 1978 – 1992 Afghan

CommunistsCommunists1979 [Dec 25] Soviet 1979 [Dec 25] Soviet Union invadesUnion invades

Mujahedin – Soviet WarMujahedin – Soviet War1980 – 19891980 – 1989

““Mujahedin” form [1978-1980]Mujahedin” form [1978-1980] American and Saudi supportAmerican and Saudi support Pakistan’s function as conduit of Pakistan’s function as conduit of

American and Saudi supportAmerican and Saudi support The seven “organizations” The seven “organizations”

[“Parties”][“Parties”]

Pakistan’s great ideaPakistan’s great idea[with CIA approval][with CIA approval]

Invite other zealous Muslims Invite other zealous Muslims to join the holy warto join the holy war

The “Arab Afghans” [from The “Arab Afghans” [from Arab world, Chechnya, Arab world, Chechnya, Bosnia, Uzbekistan, Bosnia, Uzbekistan, Philippines, etc. Philippines, etc.

Osama Bin LadenOsama Bin Laden

The final throes of the war The final throes of the war and of the Soviet Unionand of the Soviet Union

1989 Soviets withdraw from 1989 Soviets withdraw from AfghanistanAfghanistan

1991 December, Soviet Union 1991 December, Soviet Union vanishesvanishes

““Arab Afghans” rejoice, Arab Afghans” rejoice, believe they defeated the believe they defeated the second greatest power on second greatest power on earth, begin to think about earth, begin to think about attacking the U.S. attacking the U.S.

Mujahedin – Afghan Mujahedin – Afghan Communist War [1989- Communist War [1989-

1992]1992] 1989- 1992 [spring] Kabul 1989- 1992 [spring] Kabul

regime hold’s out against the regime hold’s out against the MujahedinMujahedin

1992 Collapse of the Kabul 1992 Collapse of the Kabul Communist regime [After Soviet Communist regime [After Soviet collapse in December, 1991]collapse in December, 1991]

Mujahedin Internecine WarMujahedin Internecine War1992-19961992-1996

1992 Spring Mas’ud’s army 1992 Spring Mas’ud’s army [Tajiks] takes over Kabul[Tajiks] takes over Kabul

1992 Spring-Summer the 1992 Spring-Summer the Hazaras demand a better Hazaras demand a better place in governmentplace in government

Fighting among the Mujahedin in Fighting among the Mujahedin in several places, especially Kabulseveral places, especially Kabul

Breakdown of social order: Breakdown of social order: Fighting in Kabul wrecks the Fighting in Kabul wrecks the citycity

Mujahedin leaders take over the Mujahedin leaders take over the provincial areas > “Warlords”provincial areas > “Warlords”

Rise of the TalibanRise of the Taliban

1994 In Kandahar, Mullah 1994 In Kandahar, Mullah Muhammad Omar and his students Muhammad Omar and his students [“taliban”] to attack an abusive [“taliban”] to attack an abusive warlordwarlord

1994-1995 Young Pashtun men from 1994-1995 Young Pashtun men from many places rally to the “Taliban,” many places rally to the “Taliban,” many of them from Pakistanmany of them from Pakistan

1994 - 1995 Many other groups 1994 - 1995 Many other groups join them: join them: Young men from Pakistani Islamic Young men from Pakistani Islamic

schools [taught by Saudi teachers]schools [taught by Saudi teachers] Pakistan military appropriates Pakistan military appropriates

themthem The Pakistan shipping industry The Pakistan shipping industry

provides money and support provides money and support Benazir Bhutto opens the whole Benazir Bhutto opens the whole

institutional system of Pakistan to institutional system of Pakistan to them. them.

Taliban advances Taliban advances

Taliban arise as a Pashtun coalition Taliban arise as a Pashtun coalition [Afghan and Pakistani, supported [Afghan and Pakistani, supported by others], vs non-Pashtunsby others], vs non-Pashtuns

Taliban easily take Herat and move Taliban easily take Herat and move north;north;

They are opposed by a new They are opposed by a new coalition of warlords, the “Northern coalition of warlords, the “Northern Alliance”Alliance”

Critical events of 1996Critical events of 1996

1996 Taliban take Kabul [with 1996 Taliban take Kabul [with the help of Pakistani military]the help of Pakistani military]

1996 [late summer] Osama Bin 1996 [late summer] Osama Bin Laden arrives with two Laden arrives with two planeloads of seasoned and planeloads of seasoned and devoted followersdevoted followers

Osama Bin Laden Osama Bin Laden declares wardeclares war

1996 August, Osama issues a 1996 August, Osama issues a fatwafatwa against the US against the US

1998 spring, Osama’s group 1998 spring, Osama’s group declares war against the United declares war against the United States: States:

““to kill the Americans and their to kill the Americans and their allies – civilian and military – is allies – civilian and military – is an individual duty of every an individual duty of every Muslim…”Muslim…”

1998 August, simultaneous 1998 August, simultaneous attacks on US embassies in attacks on US embassies in Kenya and TanzaniaKenya and Tanzania

2000 Oct 12, Attack on the 2000 Oct 12, Attack on the USS ColeUSS Cole

September 11, 2001 and its September 11, 2001 and its immediate implications for immediate implications for

AfghanistanAfghanistan The American response began Oct 7The American response began Oct 7 Taliban are crushed and flee into Taliban are crushed and flee into

PakistanPakistan Pakistan gets permission to extract Pakistan gets permission to extract

its troops out of the war [!]its troops out of the war [!] Osama Bin Laden and his men flee Osama Bin Laden and his men flee

into Pakistaninto Pakistan

The American distractionThe American distraction

American administration turns its American administration turns its attention to Iraq [In 2002 pulls its attention to Iraq [In 2002 pulls its key military “assets” out of key military “assets” out of Afghanistan to prepare for war in Afghanistan to prepare for war in Iraq]Iraq]

2003 American troops race into 2003 American troops race into IraqIraq

2003 + Taliban begin reconstituting 2003 + Taliban begin reconstituting themselves in Pakistanthemselves in Pakistan

Pakistan’s Problems:Pakistan’s Problems:1. Tribal Areas1. Tribal Areas

Tribal areas are only loosely Tribal areas are only loosely controlledcontrolled Are historically autonomous Are historically autonomous zone along the northwest zone along the northwest frontier of the country; the old frontier of the country; the old northwest frontier of Indianorthwest frontier of India

Physically rugged terrainPhysically rugged terrain

Our questionsOur questions

What is the war all about in What is the war all about in the local context?the local context?

Why should we care? Is it Why should we care? Is it worth American lives?worth American lives?

Modern Modern Tangi Tangi Gharu Gharu GorgeGorge

Khan Khan Shahur Shahur Pass in Pass in

WaziristanWaziristan

The prince pointed out The prince pointed out plaques on the mountainside identifying many identifying many of the British regiments including the Khyber Rifles, that served in of the British regiments including the Khyber Rifles, that served in the area . He said they were a memorial to the twelve-hundred- the area . He said they were a memorial to the twelve-hundred- ninety-six British solders who were massacred by Pathan tribesmen in ninety-six British solders who were massacred by Pathan tribesmen in 1847.1847.

Pakistan’s problemsPakistan’s problems2. India2. India

The real war to the Pakistan The real war to the Pakistan military is with Indiamilitary is with India

The quarrel over KashmirThe quarrel over KashmirPakistan claims it according to Pakistan claims it according to

the rule that its population is the rule that its population is largely Muslim largely Muslim

Pakistan’s strategy: Pakistan’s strategy: To cultivate Islamists who will To cultivate Islamists who will

fight for Kashmirfight for KashmirPakistan creates and nourishes Pakistan creates and nourishes

several extreme Islamist several extreme Islamist organizationsorganizations

Pakistan’s ProblemsPakistan’s Problems3. Need for Energy3. Need for Energy

Turkmenistan’s gas reservesTurkmenistan’s gas reserves Plans for a pipeline through Plans for a pipeline through

AfghanistanAfghanistan Iran’s competing plansIran’s competing plans Two key port cities: Which will Two key port cities: Which will

it be? it be? Gwadar in PakistanGwadar in PakistanChaha Bahar in IranChaha Bahar in Iran

TAP Pipeline ProjectTAP Pipeline Project

The importance of the The importance of the Taliban for Pakistan Taliban for Pakistan

Pakistan military regarded Pakistan military regarded the Taliban as the most the Taliban as the most promising militia in promising militia in Afghanistan. Afghanistan.

So in 1994-1995 Pakistanis So in 1994-1995 Pakistanis engaged with them very engaged with them very early. early.

Also, the Taliban are Also, the Taliban are essentially Pashtuns, whom essentially Pashtuns, whom the Pakistanis believe they the Pakistanis believe they understand since about half of understand since about half of all Pashtuns live in Pakistan all Pashtuns live in Pakistan and many of the Pakistan and many of the Pakistan military are Pashtunsmilitary are Pashtuns

Current Profile of the Current Profile of the TalibanTaliban

A disparate organizationA disparate organization Mullah Muhammad Omar’s Mullah Muhammad Omar’s groupgroup

Young Pashtuns from Tribal Young Pashtuns from Tribal AreasAreas

Foreigners: from Chechnya, Foreigners: from Chechnya, Arab world, Bosnia, PhilippinesArab world, Bosnia, Philippines

The evident split over agendas:The evident split over agendas:““Afghan Taliban” [vs Kabul]Afghan Taliban” [vs Kabul]““Pakistani Taliban” [vs Pakistani Taliban” [vs Islamabad]Islamabad]

The emerging profile of The emerging profile of Pakistan’s radicalized young Pakistan’s radicalized young menmen

Al QaedaAl QaedaLeadership: Osama and Leadership: Osama and Ayman ZawahiriAyman Zawahiri

OBL’s statement of fealty to OBL’s statement of fealty to Mullah M. Omar [Taliban]Mullah M. Omar [Taliban]

Non-local groups: from Arab Non-local groups: from Arab world, Chechnya, world, Chechnya, Uzbekistan, Xingjian, Uzbekistan, Xingjian, PhilippinesPhilippines

Current Pakistan viewCurrent Pakistan view

PakistanPakistanNeed for Islamist cadres for the Need for Islamist cadres for the war on Indiawar on India

Regards Afghanistan is under Regards Afghanistan is under influence of Indiainfluence of India

Internally conflicted over many Internally conflicted over many unresolved issues in its unresolved issues in its structure: structure:

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE CONFLICTTHE CONFLICT

The GulfThe Gulf The Caucasus and RussiaThe Caucasus and Russia Central AsiaCentral Asia ChinaChina The Indian OceanThe Indian Ocean

THEGULF

Arab worldArab world

Except for Lebanon, none of the Except for Lebanon, none of the other Arab states are ruled by other Arab states are ruled by elected officials. elected officials.

Most Arab leaders crave legitimacy Most Arab leaders crave legitimacy but don’t have it.but don’t have it.

Most seek legitimacy by claiming to Most seek legitimacy by claiming to lead the struggle against Israel.lead the struggle against Israel.

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia: Internal instability [w/in the Internal instability [w/in the Royal Family; Royal Family;

Fear of internal pressures Fear of internal pressures from its “religious right” = from its “religious right” = strict Islamismstrict Islamism

Fear of IranFear of Iran

Iran: Iran: huge supplies of oil and gashuge supplies of oil and gasThreat of nuclear powerThreat of nuclear powerEvident unpopularity of Evident unpopularity of current administrationcurrent administration

Nuclear power as means of Nuclear power as means of attracting popular supportattracting popular support

CAUCASUSSTATES

Caspian areaCaspian area

Caucasus as strategicCaucasus as strategicOilOilPipelinesPipelines

Turkmenistan and KazakhstanTurkmenistan and KazakhstanHuge oil and gas reservesHuge oil and gas reservesStruggle over pipelinesStruggle over pipelines

RUSSIA

RussiaRussia

Oil and gas resourcesOil and gas resourcesStrategic locationStrategic location

Conduit of gas, oil from Central Asian Conduit of gas, oil from Central Asian statesstates

Intermediate position between Intermediate position between Europe and ChinaEurope and China

A dangerous problem: populationA dangerous problem: populationThe advance of the Chinese The advance of the Chinese

RussiaRussia

Map of oil and gas pipeline in former Map of oil and gas pipeline in former soviet union, from loose handoutsoviet union, from loose handout

CENTRAL ASIA

CHINA

ChinaChinaThirst for energyThirst for energyPipelines into Central AsiaPipelines into Central AsiaStrategic site on the Indian Strategic site on the Indian Ocean: Gwadar PakistanOcean: Gwadar Pakistan

THEINDIANOCEAN

Indian OceanIndian OceanVulnerability of the GulfVulnerability of the GulfStrategic ports in Iran and Strategic ports in Iran and PakistanPakistan

Amerian presence Amerian presence Somalian Pirates Somalian Pirates

TAP Pipeline ProjectTAP Pipeline Project

TAP-I, IPI & QP-I Pipeline RoutesTAP-I, IPI & QP-I Pipeline Routes

The Wider Setting of the The Wider Setting of the Afghanistan / Pakistan War Afghanistan / Pakistan War The demand for Central Asian The demand for Central Asian

resourcesresources India’s need for energy [linking up India’s need for energy [linking up

with Iran]with Iran] Pakistan’s need for energyPakistan’s need for energy Chinese need for energyChinese need for energy Chinese need for other minerals Chinese need for other minerals

Chinese purchase of copper rightsChinese purchase of copper rightsChinese bids on iron ore rightsChinese bids on iron ore rights

The pipeline diplomatic struggles The pipeline diplomatic struggles Pipelines from TurkmenistanPipelines from Turkmenistan Ocean ports on the Indian Ocean ports on the Indian Ocean [Gwadar vs Chah Bahar]Ocean [Gwadar vs Chah Bahar]

Pushtun ethnic issues in Pushtun ethnic issues in Afghanistan / Pakistan: How Afghanistan / Pakistan: How shall they integrate?shall they integrate?

Al Qaeda: How to contain Al Qaeda: How to contain this movement?this movement?

Nuclear powers in South Nuclear powers in South Asia: India, PakistanAsia: India, Pakistan