Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations · 2019. 7. 29. · to 63 years old are far more...

April10,2017revisionForNBERconferencevolume,WomenWorkingLonger

Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations

ClaudiaGoldinHarvardUniversityandNBER

LawrenceF.Katz

HarvardUniversityandNBER

Abstract

Americanwomenareworkingmore,throughtheirsixtiesandevenintotheirseventies.Theirincreasedparticipationatolderagesstartedinthelate1980sbeforetheturnaroundinoldermen’slaborforceparticipationandtheeconomicdownturnsofthe2000s.Thehigherlaborforceparticipationofolderwomenconsistsdisproportionatelyofthoseworkingatfull-timejobs.Increasedlaborforceparticipationofwomenintheirolderagesispartofthegeneralincreaseincohortlaborforceparticipation.Cohorteffects,inturn,aremainlyafunctionofeducationaladvancesandgreaterpriorworkexperience.Butlaborforceparticipationratesofthemostrecentcohortsintheirfortiesarelessthanthoseforpreviouscohorts.Thesefactorsmaysuggestthatemploymentatolderageswillstagnateorevendecrease.Butseveralotherfactorswillbeoperatinginanopposingdirectionandleadsustoconcludethatwomenarelikelytocontinuetoworkevenlonger.Acknowledgments:WeareindebtedtotheUniversityofMichigan,DavidWiseandthestaffattheNBER,especiallyMohanRamanujan,forenablinguseoftherestrictedaccessversionoftheHRS.WethankourresearchassistantswholaboredovertheCPS,HRSandtheSocialSecurityearningsfiles:AmiraAbulafi,NataliaEmanuel,Celena(Yuezhou)HuoandJonathanRoth.WethankourdiscussantKatharineAbrahamandothersattheconferenceforprovidingvaluablecommentsandtoMariaFitzpatrickforthe“everateacher”variablecode.WegratefullyacknowledgethefinancialsupportoftheAlfredP.SloanFoundation’sWorkingLongerprogramundergrantno.2013-6-16,“WomenWorkingLonger.”

GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-1-

WomenhavebeenworkinglongerforalongtimeinU.S.history.Theirlabormarket

participationincreaseddecadeafterdecadeduringthetwentiethcentury,asmorewomen

weredrawnintothelaborforce.Butthatisanoldstory.Thenewstoryisthatalarge

portionofwomenareworkingalotlongerintotheirsixtiesandeventheirseventies.Their

increasedparticipationatolderagesstartedinthelate1980sbeforetheturnaroundin

oldermen’slaborforceparticipationandbeforetheeconomicdownturnsofthe2000s.1

Women’sincreasedparticipationbeyondtheirfiftiesisachangeofreal

consequence.Ratherthanbeinganincreaseinmarginalpart-timeworkers,thehigher

laborforceparticipationofolderwomendisproportionatelyconsistsofthoseworkingat

full-timejobs.Womenareremainingontheirjobsastheyageratherthanscalingdownor

leavingforpositionswithshorterhoursandfewerdays.2

Whyhavewomenasagroupincreasedtheirparticipationatolderages?Increased

laborforceparticipationofwomenintheirolderages,wewillemphasize,ispartofthe

generalincreaseincohortlaborforceparticipationrates.Successivecohorts,forvarious

reasons,increasedtheirparticipationatallages,resultinginanupwardshiftof

participationbybirthcohort.Asmorewomengraduatedfromcollege,heldjobswith

greateradvancementpotential,enjoyedtheirjobsmore,werenotcurrentlymarriedor

weremarriedtomenwhoalsoextendedemploymentintotheirsenioryears,more

remainedactiveinthelaborforceintotheirsixtiesandbeyond.

Risingcohorteffectsinlaborforceparticipationacrosssuccessivebirthcohortsof

U.S.womenareclearlyvisibleinthemicro-datafromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)1AccordingtoOECDdata,mostnationsfromaround2000havehadincreasedlaborforceparticipationofwomenintheirsixties.Thesecountriesinclude:Canada,France,Germany,Sweden,andtheUK.Increaseshavealsobeenexperiencedamongwomen65-69yearsold.Intermsoflevelsfor60-64-year-olds,theUSandJapanhadbeenthehighestbutmostarenowataboutthe50percentlevel.Levelsaremuchlowerfor65-69yearoldsandconsiderablylowerthanthatfortheUS.OtherthantheUSandpossiblySweden,part-timeworkisreasonablyhighforolderwomeninthenationsmentioned.Inonlyafewcasesarechangesinsocialsecurityregulationsobviouslyrelatedtotheseincreases.Forthedata,seetheIntroductiontoThisVolumeandOECD.STAT,LFSbySexandAge,Indicators,http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=LFS_SEXAGE_I_R2Maestas(2010)discussestheemergenceofnontraditionalretirementpathsincludingtheincreasingroleforplannedtransitionsoutofretirementandthegreaterfractionofthosewhostatetheyareretiredbutwhohavepositiveandoftensubstantialhoursofwork.

AnnualSocialandEconomicSupplement(ASEC)andtheHealthandRetirementSurvey

(HRS).Butthesecohorteffectsareconsiderablydampenedwheneducationisconsidered.

Higherparticipationatallageshasbeenduetogreaterlevelsofeducation,particularly

collegegraduation.Theincreaseincohorteffectsinlaborforceparticipationforwomenin

theirlatefiftiesandearlysixtiesisalsolessenedbyincludingworkexperienceatyounger

agesandbyaddinginformationonthemainprioroccupation.Wefindsome(negative)

impactonemploymentatolderagesfromhavingbeenateacheranddiscusswhythatis

thecase.

Mostimportantisthatwefindthatthosewho“enjoyed”theirjobsearlierinlife

remainedemployedformuchlongerlaterinlifeindependentoftheirhoursandearnings

onthejobsixtoeightyearsearlier.Thedifferencebetweenthosewhoagreewiththe

statementaboutenjoyingtheirjobversusthosewhodisagreewiththestatementis10

percentagepoints(onabaseof70)andtheeffectistwicethatbetweenthosewhostrongly

disagreewiththestatementandthosewhoagree.Womenwhoworkmorehourswhen59

to63yearsoldarefarmorelikelytohaveworkedmorehourssixyearsbefore.Butthatis

inadditiontotheirgreatersatisfactioninthejobearlierandtheirgreaterfulfillment

contemporaneously.Thatisclearlynotthecaseforallolderworkers,butitisthecasefor

Manyofthecohortsweconsiderwerethosethatalsoexperiencedgreaterdivorce.

Therefore,currentmaritalstatusisrelatedtoemploymentatolderages.Becausecouples

oftencoordinatetheirworkandleisure,currentemploymentofthespouseisanadditional

correlateofwhetherawomanisworkinglonger.

Mostofthefactorsjustmentioned,particularlyeducationalattainmentandearlier

employmentcontinuity,weredeterminedpriortotheemploymentdecisionunder

question.Theadditionofthesefactorsalmostnullifiesthecohorteffects,exceptinone

importantcase.Forthemostrecentcohortsofcollegegraduatewomenwecanstudyto

theirsixties(thosebornfrom1949to1955),thepredetermined,observablefactorsdonot

eliminatethecohorteffect.Somethingelse,yetundetermined,iskeepingtheminthelabor

forceatolderages.

Laborforceparticipationratesofwomenintheirearlysixtiescanbeobservedtoday

forcohortsbornuptothemid-1950s.Participationratesofforty-andfifty-yearoldwomen

borninthelate1950sandearly1960shavenotincreasedrelativetothoseofpriorcohorts.

Lifecyclecohortlaborforcefunctionsarenolongerthehumpedfunctionstheyoncewere.

Theyhavebecomeflatlines,morelikethoseofmenthantheyhadbeen.Theseflatlines,

moreover,haveintersectedthehumpedlifecycleparticipationfunctionsofpriorcohorts,

showingthedecreaseinparticipationrelativetopreviouscohorts.Butthesenewand

flatterparticipationfunctionsappearnottobedecreasingatolderagesrelativetoprior

cohorts.Thatmayindicatethatwomenwillcontinuetoworklongereventhoughtheir

participationratesatmid-agehadstagnatedrelativetopriorcohorts.3

SeveralfactorsmayoperatetooffsetthestagnationordipintheparticipationofUS

womeninmid-age.Oneofthereasonsforthedipinwomen’sparticipationintheirlate

thirtiesandearlyfortiesisthatwomeninthesecohortshavehadtheirchildrenlater.

Therefore,thediphadbeenaccompaniedbyanincreaseintheirparticipationintheir

twentiesrelativetopreviouscohorts.

Wefindinourexplorationofthecorrelatesofparticipationthatcollegegraduate

womencurrentlyintheirearlysixtieshavepositivecohorteffectsthatremainsubstantial

evenaftercontrollingfortheirearlierlifecycleparticipationrates.Today’syoungerwomen

willlikelyretirelaterthanonewouldhavepredictedbasedontheireducationalattainment

andlifecycleparticipationrates.Thefindingisparticularlynoteworthysincefemalecollege

graduationratesarecontinuingtoincreasebybirthcohort.4

3SeeGoldinandMitchell(2017)onchangesinlifecyclelaborforceparticipation.HurdandRohwedder(2014)usequestionsintheHRSonsubjectiveprobabilitiesofemploymenttopredictfuturelaborforceparticipationrates.SeealsoMaestasandZissimopoulos(2010)forparticipationforecastsatolderagesto2030andforanexcellentsummaryoftheissues.4Thecollegegraduationrate(thesharewithabachelor’sdegree)forwomenaged25to29yearsincreasedfrom30percentin2000(forthe1971to1975birthcohorts)to39percentin2015(forthe1986to1990birthcohorts).SeeU.S.DepartmentofEducation(2015),table104.20.

A. Labor Force Participation Rates

1. By Age, Sex and Education Level

Thecentralfactsconcerningthelaborforceparticipationofwomenbyageare

showninFigure1,whichusestheMarchCPS-ASECmicro-datasamplesandgives

contemporaneouslaborforceparticipationratesduringthesurveyreferenceweekfor

womenbyfive-yearagegroupssince1962.Throughoutmuchtheperiodshown,

participationratesincreasedforwomeninthe35to54-yeargroup.The35-49-year-old

groupflattensoutintheearly1990s.Incontrast,ratesforwomen55yearsandolderwere

flatuntilthe1980s,whenanalmostcontinuousincreaseensued,evenforthe70to74-

year-oldgroup.

Thelaborforceparticipationdataarealsogiven,inFigure2,forcollegegraduate

womensinceschoolattainmentincreasesbybirthcohort.Theseriesisrestrictedto

currentlymarriedwomenbecausealargefractionoftheearliercohortsofcollegegraduate

women—thosebornfromthe1890stothe1910s—nevermarriedormarriedlate.In

consequence,alargefractionofcollegegraduatewomen,eventhosewhoeventually

married,neverhadchildrenandhadhigherlaborforceparticipationrates(Goldin1997).

Consideringonlythegroupwhowerecurrentlymarrieddampenstheselectionproblem

butdoesnoteliminateitbecauseoflatermarriageages.Participationratesforcollege

graduatewomen,therefore,declinesomewhatovertimeastheirmarriageandchild

bearingratesbecomemorelikeothersintheircohort.

Ifoneignorescohortsbornbeforearound1920,theseriesforallwomenandthat

forcollegegraduatewomen55yearsorolderarefirstrelativelyconstantandthen

increase,particularlyafterthemid-tolate-1980s.5Thepercentagepointincreaseduring

thepast25years,showninTable1,isnotmuchdifferentbetweentheaggregategroupof

womenandthecollegegraduates.Butbecausecollegegraduatewomenhavehad

considerablyhigherparticipationratesthanlesser-educatedwomen,theshifttoward

5Forthe60to64-year-oldgroup,participationratesafter1980areforindividualsbornafter1920.

collegehasincreasedparticipationratesforolderwomenandthegrowthofwomen’s

employmentatolderages.

AlsoclearinTable1isthattheincreasedparticipationofolderwomenexceedsthat

ofoldermeninthelast25years,bothabsolutelyandrelativetothebaselevels.Among60

to64-year-oldwomen,forexample,participationincreasedby17percentagepointsona

baseof34percentbutformalestheincreaseisjust6percentagepointsonabaseof55

percent.Thepercentagepointincreasefor65to69yearoldsmalesandfemalesissimilar

inabsolutemagnitude,buttheinitialbaseforwomenisfarlower(15versus26percent).

Therelativeincreaseforolderwomenhasmeantthatthegendergapin

participationatolderageshasgreatlydecreased,ascanbeseeninFigure3.Differencesin

participationbysexhave,ofcourse,decreasedmoregenerally.Buttheabsolutepercentage

pointdifferenceatsomeoftheolderagesisnowsmallerthanfortheyoungeragegroups.

For60to64yearolds,forexample,thedifferenceinparticipationratesbetweenmenand

womenwasabout50percentagepointsin1962.In2014,thedifferencewasjust9

percentagepoints,whenthatformalesandfemalesintheirthirtiestomid-fortieswas

around16percentagepoints.

Menandwomenaredoingmoreofthesamethingsthroughouttheirlivesandthisis

eventrueratolderages.Butisthatalsotruewithincouples?Theansweristhat,forwomen

59to63yearsoldandpresentlymarried,farmoreofthesecouplesarebothcurrently

workingthancurrentlyretired.6Inaddition,in2014aboutasmanyofthesecoupleshada

wifewhowasworkingandahusbandwhowasnotthanthereverse.Morewomenare

workingintotheirsixtiesandmorearecoupledwithmenwhoarealsoworking.Butthere

arealsosubstantialnumbersofwomenwhoareworkingintotheirsixtieseventhough

theirhusbandsareretired.Wereturntotheissueofjointemploymentandleisurebelow.

2. Full-time versus Part-time Employment of Women at Older Ages

Thelaborforceparticipationrateforolderwomenincreasedlargelybecauseofan6ThisstatementistrueforHRScouplesinwhichthewifeisbetween59and63yearsold.Forcouplesinwhichthewomanis62or63years,thestatementholdsbeginningin2008.

increaseinthoseworkingfull-timeandfull-year.Theexpansionoffull-timeemployment

amongparticipantshasbeenespeciallyevidentforthe65yearsandoldergroup.

AsseeninFigure4,thefractionof65to69-year-oldwomeninthelaborforcewho

workedfull-timeandfull-yearincreasedfromaround30percenttoalmost50percent,

withmuchoftheincreaseoccurringafter2000.7Thefractionof70to74-year-oldlabor

forceparticipantsworkingfull-timeandfull-yearincreasedfrom20percenttoalmost40

percent.WeemphasizethatFigure4givesthefractionworkingfull-time,full-yearamong

thoseinthelaborforceratherthanamongthepopulationinthatagegroup.Althoughthe

timingcouldindicatetheimpactofchangesintheSocialSecurityearningstest,theincrease

beganbefore2000forbothyoungerandolderagegroupsofwomen.8

3. Cohort Trends

Increasedemploymentamongolderwomenwouldappeartoberelatedtotheir

increasedparticipationearlierintheirlives.Theconclusioncanbededucedfromthefact

thatallcohortsinFigure5.Athathavehadincreasedparticipationintheirsixties,relative

toearliercohorts,alsohadincreasedparticipationrelativetothesamecohortswhenthey

wereyounger.Thatis,thecohortsthathavebegunto“worklonger”hadhigher

participationratesthroughouttheirlifecyclesthandidpreviouscohorts.

Figure5beginswiththecohortbornin1930,butthepatternjustmentionedis

evidentaswellforsomeoftheearlierbirthcohortsnotshown.However,cohortsbornin

theearly1920sshownodiscernibleincreaseinparticipationamongwomenintheirsixties

7Thepre-1970dataalsoshowsomewhathighfractionsworkingfulltimeamongparticipantsanditisnotclearwhytherewasasubsequentdecrease.8Theretirementearningstestwaschangedin2000toapplyonlytoindividualsbelownormalretirementage(NRA).TheNRAhadbeen65buthasbeengraduallyincreasedto67yearsforthosebornafter1959.EarningstaxedabovetheexemptamountsarerepaidafterNRA.From1975to1982theupperagewas71anditwasdecreasedto69until2000.SeeGelber,JonesandSacks(2016)ontheretirementearningstest,itshistoryandimpact.Changesformenmay,however,berelatedtothechangeintheretirementearningstest.SeeGustmanandSteinmeier(2009)andMastrobuoni(2009).Gelber,Isen,andSong(ThisVolume)showthataslowdownintherateofgrowthofSocialSecuritybenefitsstartinginthemid-1980salteredwomen’sretirement.

despitemodestincreasesearlierintheirlives.9Thedataforcollegegraduatesgivenin

Figure5.Brevealsimilarfindingsbutparticipationlevelsarehigher.

Aswillbeemphasizedlater,regressionsofthelaborforcerateatolderagesonbirth

cohortdummiesindicatethatcohorteffectsaregreatlymutedbytheadditionofvarious

predeterminedfactorssuchaseducation,earlieremploymentcontinuity,andwomen’spast

occupations.Thatis,cohortdifferencesinlaborforceparticipationlaterinlifearelargely,

butnotentirely,afunctionofearlierchangesinhumancapitalaccumulation.Thesehuman

capitaladvancesoccurredbecausewomenperceivedthattheirinvestmentswouldpayoff

inthelabormarketandthattheiremploymentwouldbehigherandmorecontinuousthan

forpreviouscohorts.

Wenotedbeforethatthefunctiontracingoutlifecyclelaborforceparticipationwas

transformedfrombeinghump-shapedtobeingalmostaflatlineafterthemid-1950sbirth

cohorts.Participationratesaroundage25totheearly30sgreatlyincreasedfromthe

1930stothe1950sbirthcohortsbecausewomenwithinfantshadmuchhigherlaborforce

participationandbecausethebirthratedecreased.

Thenewflattercohortlifecyclefunctionshavebeguntocrosseachother.The

crossingcreatesaninteresting“twist”inparticipationforthemostrecentcohortsin

Figures5.AandmoresoforcollegegraduatewomeninFigure5.B.Thetwististhecohort

analogoftheoft-mentioneddecreaseintheparticipationofwomenintheirthirtiesand

forties.10Oneclearwaytoseethechangeistoobservethatslicingthecohortgraphsatages

30and50yieldstheusualcohortprogression.Youngercohortshavehigherparticipation

ratesthanoldercohorts.Butslicingthecohortgraphsinbetween,sayatage40,doesnot

yieldhigherratesforthemostrecentcohorts,suchasthosebornfrom1959to1973.The

cohortlinesappeartohavetwisted.

Doesthismeanthatparticipationratesforthesewomenintheirfifties,sixtiesand

9ThesegeneraltrendsarealsoapparentinFigure1.Forexample,theparticipationlineforthose65to69yearsbeginstoincreasearound1987,thereforeforwomenbornintheearly1920s.10SeeGoldinandMitchell(2017)foradiscussionofthe“newlifecycleofwomen’semployment.”

beyondwillalsobelower?Theirincreasededucationandlaborforceparticipationintheir

youngeryearswouldarguetheopposite.Whytheyhavedecreasedparticipationisstillan

on-goingresearchquestion,althoughsomeoftheanswersconcernthedelayofbirths,on

theonehand,andanabsenceofmandatedleavepolicyofmorethan12weeks,onthe

other.Thedecreaseinparticipationisnotlarge,butthedisruptionoftheincreasingtrend

isclearandcouldargueforabreakintheincreaseofwomen’sworkinglonger.11

Thebottomlineforcohortchangeisthatincreasedparticipationatolderageshas

occurredforcohortsthathadgreaterattachmenttothelaborforcethroughouttheirlives.

Theupshotisthatgreaterattachmenttothelaborforceearlierintheworklife,means

longeremploymentatolderages.Wenowturntousinglongitudinalinformationfromthe

HRSmatchedtoSocialSecurityearningsrecordstounderstandtheroleofcohorteffects.

BecausewerelyontheCPSforthegeneraltrendsandtheHRSforanalysis,we

provideevidencethattheHRSreasonablytracksgeneraltrendsintheCPSforthese

cohortsandagegroups.Appendixtablesandfiguresshowthecloserelationshipbetween

CPSandHRSparticipationrates(FigureA1),maritalstatus(TableA2),education(Table

A3)andnumberofchildren(FigureA2).LaborforceparticipationratesintheHRSandthe

CPSarealmostidenticalforwomenintheirfiftiesandsixties,howevertheHRShashigher

participationratesthantheCPSforwomenintheirseventies.12

B. Exploring the Role of Cohort Effects Using the HRS

Cohortsbornlaterhavehigherlaborforceparticipationratesatolderagesthando

thosebornearlier.Weexplorewhetherthesecohorteffectsareprimarilyduetochangesin

11HurdandRohwedder(2014)notethatsubjectiveprobabilitiesoffutureworkatages62and65arereliablepredictorsofactualemploymentandthatcurrentHRSrespondentsintheirearlyfiftieshavesubjectiveprobabilitiesoffutureworkthatexceedtheactualparticipationratesofindividualsintheirsixties.LusardiandMitchell(ThisVolume)alsofindusingtheHRSthattheshareofwomenintheirearly50swhoanticipateworkingatage65continuestoriseinrecentcohortsevenaswomen’slaborforceparticipationratesintheirearly50shasflattenedacrosscohorts.Thesefindingsindicateafurtherincreaseintheparticipationratesofolderwomen.12Thereasonforthedifferenceinparticipationatolderagesisnotclearsinceeachsurveyissupposedtocoverthoseinnursinghomesandsimilarcareunits.TheHRS,inaddition,hasalowerfractionofwomenwhostatetheyneverhadafirstbirth.

factorsdeterminedlargelypriortotheretirementoption.Thesevariablescaninclude

educationalattainment,numberandagesofchildrenandearlierlifecyclelaborforce

participation.Wewillalsoconsiderthedegreetowhichtheindividualhadrelativelyhigh

earningswhenemployed,whichwetermthe“careercondition.”Theselargely

predeterminedcharacteristicswillbemeasuredinourempiricalworkpriortoaroundage

55whereastheretirementoptionisconsideredfromages59to63.

Theretirementdecisionmayinsteadbedeterminedprimarilybyfactorsthatare

contemporaneous,suchasasetofshocksortransitoryfactors.Thesefactorsmayhave

servedtoincreaseparticipationatolderyearsinthepost-1980speriodandmayinclude

maritalstatuschange,fluctuationsinthevaluerealestateorfinancialassets,pension

losses,reductionsinSocialSecuritypayments,anddeterioratinghealthstatus.

Theevidencepointstoalargeimpactofchangesinthepredeterminedfactors.

Educationreducescohortdifferencesinlaborforceparticipationfromages59to63by

aboutahalf.Lifecyclelaborforceparticipationfrom35to44yearsproducesan

overshootingofthecohorteffects.Ourmeasureofhighcareerearningsdoesnotperform

betterthanthesimplermeasureoflifecycleparticipation.

Oncethesevariablesareconsidered,addinginformationonthenumberandbirth

yearsofchildrenhasnoimpact.Childrenservetoreduceparticipationinthe25to44-year

rangebuthavenoseparateeffectinlaterlife.13Themanycontemporaneousfactors

mentionedarerelatedtothevariancewithincohortsbutdonotdomuchtoexplain

changesacrosscohorts.

Theoneinterestinganomalyconcernsthemostrecentofthecohortsofcollege

graduatewomenthatcanbefollowedtotheirsixties.Thosebornfrom1949to1951have

higherparticipationatages59to63evengivenmeasuresoftheirlifecycleparticipation

priortoage55andtheireducationalattainment.Thatis,thecohorteffectforthe1949to

13LumsdaineandVermeer(2015)findthatagrandchild’sarrivalincreasesthehazardofawoman’sretirementindependentofheropportunitycost.Itisnotclearthatthepartialortotalgrandchildeffecthasdecreasedwithtime,thusthatitcanhelptoexplaintheworkinglongerphenomenon.

1951groupremainssignificantevenincludingthevariouspredeterminedfactors,

includinglifecycleparticipation.

Thefindingthatlatercohortshavehigherparticipationgiventheirearlierlifecycle

participationmaybeusefulinforecastingwhatmorerecentcohortswillbedoingwhen

theyreachtheirsixties.Recallthatlaborforceparticipationratesacrossthelifecyclehave

becomerelativelyflatfromages25to45andthatthemostrecentcohortsofwomendonot

alwayshavehigherparticipationcomparedwithpreviouscohorts.Infact,themostrecent

dataindicateabacktrackingofyoungercohortsofwomenintheirforties.Thatis,forthe

collegegraduategroup,aswellasforothers,participationrateshavenotincreasedrelative

topriorcohortsandhaveevendecreasedatvariousages.

Thefindingaboutthosebornbetween1949and1951mayindicatethat

participationratesforevenyoungercohortsmaybehigherstillintheirsixtiesand

seventiesthanpriorgenerationsatleastforcollegeeducatedwomen.

Toexploretheroleofcohortandpredeterminedvariables,datafromtheHealthand

RetirementStudy(HRS)areusedtogetherwithinformationontheearningshistoryofthe

respondentsfromSocialSecurityearningsdataandW-2forms(startingwith1980).14Each

oftherespondentstotheHRS,beginningwiththefirstcohortsin1992,wasaskedwhether

herSocialSecurityearningshistorycouldbelinked.Iftheindividualagreedtothelinkage,

thenallpastrecordswerelinked.15Ifnot,thentheindividualwasaskedagaininthe

subsequentbiennialsurvey.Therefore,theoldercohortshadmorechancestoagreetoa

linkagethantheyoungercohortsandlinkageratesarehigherinconsequence.

Acrossallcohortsabout80percentofrespondentsagreedtothelinkagewithSocial

14TheW-2dataarealsoprovidedfor1977-79butareincompleteintheHRS-SSAlinkeddata.15AcuriousaspectoftheHRSisthatuntil2006individualswereaskedeveryyeariftheywouldcontinuethelinkagetotheSocialSecurityearningsdata.Ifatanypointtheydecidednotto,thepriordatawereallowedbutthecontemporaneousandfuturedatawerenot.FormostHRSrespondents,thebreakinthelinkagewillnotmattersincetheHRSitselfcollectedinformationonlaborsupplyandearnings.ButthebreakwillmatterforaspousewhoenteredtheHRSatayoungerageandwhowasfoldedwhentheindividual’sbirthcohortrelevantHRScohortwasadded.SeeAppendix,especiallythesectionSocialSecurityEarningsRecordLinkageintheHRS,fordetails.

Security(andW-2)records.Forbirthcohortsfrom1931to1945theresponserateranges

from85to90percent;therangeis71to79percentforbirthcohortsfrom1946to1951.

(LinkageratesaregiveninAppendixTableA1bybirthcohort.)Whenweuseinformation

onlifecyclelaborforceparticipation,wemustrestrictthesampletoindividualswhogave

permissiontohavetheirSocialSecurityearnings(andW-2forms)linked.Otherwisethe

fullHRSsampleisused,givenageandotherrestrictionsthatmayapply.

Wemainlyexplorelaborforceparticipationratesofwomen59to63yearsoldand

alwaysincludethree-yearbirthcohortdummies.WebegininTable2,cols.(1)to(5)by

includingcharacteristicslargelydeterminedpriortoage55,suchaseducational

attainmentandlifecycleparticipationduringvariousintervals.16Weaddincol.(6)current

maritalstatusandasummarymeasureofcurrenthealthstatus.

Table3dividesthegroupintotwoeducationlevels,collegegraduatesandthose

whodidnotgraduatecollege.17Cols.(1)to(4)ofTable3includethepredetermined

characteristicsandcols.(5)and(6)addcurrentmaritalstatusandhealthstatus.Table4

includesonlycollegegraduatewomen.Inadditiontothepreviousvariables,weadd

informationonwhethertheindividualwaseverateacher.About45percentofcollege

graduatewomeninthe1930scohortswereteachersformuchoftheirworkinglifetimes

andteachersgenerallyhaddefined-benefitpensions.

TheuseoftheHRSlinkedtotheSocialSecurityearningsrecords(calledthe“linked”

sample)reducesthenumberofobservations,lesssofortheearlierthanforthemore

recentcohortsaspreviouslymentioned.WhenweusethedatawithSocialSecurity

earningsweadjusttheHRSpersonweightsforselectionintothelinkedsample.18InTables

16Theadditionofvariablesforchildreneverbornaddsnoexplanatorypowerforolderwomen’slaborforceparticipationafterincludingcontrolsforearlierlifecycleparticipation.Thus,wedonotreportspecificationsaddingcontrolsforchildren.17SimilarregressionstothoseinTable3forwomen56to58yearsoldareinAppendixTableA5.18Theadjustmentmultipliesthepersonweightbytheinverseofthepredictedlinkagerate,basedonindividualpredeterminedcharacteristicsatthetimeoftheirbirthcohort’sentryintotheHRS.LinkageratesarepredictedusingalogitmodelforwhetherthewomanallowedthelinkageonHRScohortwavedummiesandHRSmeasuresofemploymenthistory,race,maritalstatus,educationandfinancialwealthatHRScohortentry.

2and4weexplorethesensitivityoftheresultstousingthefullHRSsampleandthelinked

sample.BecausetheHRSisalongitudinaldataset,manyoftherespondentsareinthe

samplemorethanoncebetweentheagesof59and63andweclusterthestandarderrors

attheindividuallevel.Wealsoincludedummyvariablesforthesingle-yearages.

InTable2,col.(1)thebaselineregressionisprovidedforthefullsampleandcol.(2)

givesthebaselineforthesmallerlinkedsample.Thevariablesofinterestarethose

showingtheeffectofbirthcohortinthree-yearbinsfrom1931to1951(where1931-33is

theomittedcohortgroup).19

Theimpactsofbirthcohortonlaborforceparticipationfromages59to63are

highlysimilarbetweenthetwosamplesandbothdemonstratetheincreaseinparticipation

atolderagesforbirthcohortsafter1943andespeciallyafter1949.Themostrecentcohort

thatcanbeanalyzedforthe59to63-year-oldgroup,bornfrom1949-51,hasa

participationratethatisaround10percentagepointshigherinthefullsample(9forthe

linkedsample)thanforcohortsborninthe1930s.Theonlyadditionalcovariatesincluded

inthefirsttwocolumnsaresingleyearofageandracedummies.

Educationalattainmentisaddedincol.(3)andlifecycleparticipationbetweenages

35and44isincludedincol.(4).Thelifecyclelaborforcevariablesgivethefractionofyears

intheintervalthatthewomanwasinthelaborforce.Thesehavebeencomputedmainly

fromtherestricted-accessSocialSecurityearningsdata(since1951)andW-2forms(when

available).AdditionalinformationisusedfromtheHRStoaddlaborforcedatafor

individualsexemptfromSocialSecuritytaxesgenerallybecausetheyweregovernment

employees,suchasteachers.TheHRSprovidesinformationconcerningtwoperiodsprior

tothestartoftheHRSinterviewsinwhichtherespondentwasagovernmentemployee.

WhenHRSsurveyresponsesareavailableregardingparticipation,theyareusedinplaceof

SocialSecurityearningsandW-2data.(Formoredetails,seeAppendix:Constructionof

Variables.)Variouslifecycleemploymentvariableswerecreatedforeachofthethree

decadesfromage25to54andfortheentireperiod.

19ThelastyearoftheHRSavailableis2012.The1952-54cohortisincompleteandthusisomitted.

Theadditionofeducationalattainmenteliminatestheeconomicandstatistical

significanceofthecohortcoefficientsforallbutthemostrecentofthebirthcohorts.

Althoughonlythelinkedsamplecoefficientsaregiven,thoseforthefullsamplechangein

thesamemanner.Theadditionofthelifecycleparticipationvariableincol.(4)further

reducesthecoefficientforthemostrecentofthebirthcohortstoaslightlynegativevalue.

Italsoproducessomemodestreductionoftheimpactofeducationalattainmentsincethe

moreeducatedhavegreatercontinuityinemployment.

Insteadofavariablethatmeasureslifecycleparticipation,onethatmeasuresthe

degreetowhichawomanreachessomecareerlevelmaybemoreimportantin

determiningfutureparticipation.Sincewomenwithgreaterprioremploymentwhenfirst

beginningtheircareershavegreaterattachmenttothelaborforcelaterinthelives,those

withhigherearningswhenemployedshouldhaveevengreaterattachment.

Totestwhetheremploymentperseoryearsofbetterearningperformancematter

wecreateavariablegivingthefractionofanageintervalthata“careercondition”wasmet.

Theconditionusedhereisachievinganearningslevelthatissomefraction(50percentin

thiscase)ofthemedianearningsofafull-time,year-roundmaleworkerfortheten-year

agegroupconsideredduringtherelevantperiod.20Thatis,thecareerconditionfora

womanwhenshewasinanagegroupisjudgedrelativetotheearningsofthemedianmale

inthesameagegroupduringtheidenticalperiod.Womenwhowereneverinthelabor

forceintheageintervalareassignedavalueofzero,asdothosewhoneverearnedmore

thantheconditionbutwereinthelaborforce.Wefindthatthevariablegivingthecareer

condition,incol.(5),isrelatedtolateremploymentbutlessstronglythanthesimpler

variablegivingthefractionoftheintervalawomanwasemployed.

20Earningsofthemedianmale,inthesameagegroupandyear,areused.Thesedataareavailableinpublisheddocuments(U.S.CensusBureauP-60Reports)priortothemicro-datafortheCPS,whichbeginsin1962.Thecalculationofallthecareerconditionsconsideredrequiresdatafrom1956(1931+25years).Afractionofthemalemedianisusedbecausethemedianistoohighabarforemployedwomenduringmuchoftheperiodconsidered.Womenintheexemptoccupationsareassumedtoexceedthebar.SeeAppendix:HealthandRetirementSurvey:ConstructionofVariables.

Col.(6)augmentsthecol.(4)specificationbyaddingtwocontemporaneous

variables:currentmaritalstatusandcurrenthealthstatus.Thebirthcohortcoefficients

werealreadyextinguishedwithcontrolsforeducationandearlierlifecycleparticipation,

andtheaddedcontemporaneousvariableshavelittlefurtherimpactonthecohorteffects.

Theadditionofhealthstatusreducestheimpactofeducationand,inmostinstances,

almosthalvestheschoolinglevelcoefficientsincol.(4).Themorehighlyeducatedarealso

thehealthiestor,atleast,theyconsiderthemselvestobeso.Thecoefficientonearlier

lifecycleparticipationremainssubstantialandisonlyslightlyreduced.

Itisusefultoexploretheimpactofcurrentmaritalstatusevenifitdoeslittleto

changethebirthcohortcoefficients.Beingcurrentlymarrieddecreasesparticipationfor

olderwomenbuttheeffectisreducedifthewoman’sspouseisemployedandthetotal

impactisaboutequaltothatoftheomittedgroup(nevermarried)andtowidowed

women.21Divorcedwomenhaveparticipationratesabout8percentagepointshigherthan

thebasegroupofnevermarriedwomen.22

Disaggregatingbyeducation,asinTable3,revealssubstantialdifferencesbetween

thehigher(collegegraduate)andlower(belowacollegegraduate)educatedgroupsinthe

correlatesoftheirlateremployment.Notethatwithinthecollegegraduategroup,dummy

variablesareaddedfordegreesabovethebachelors(MAandthevariousgraduateand

professionaldegrees)and,withinthenon-collegegroup,dummyvariablesareaddedfor

highschooldiplomaandhavingsomecollege.

Theregressionsincols.(1)and(2)ofTable3includeonlycohorteffects(plusage,

raceandeducationdummies).Cohorteffectsforcollegegraduates(relativetothe1931-33

cohorts)aremodestbutthemostrecentofthecohortshasaparticipationrateabout12.6

percentagepointshigher.Forthegroupthatdidnotgraduatefromcollege,cohorteffects

areinsubstantial.Becausetherewasupgradingwithineachoftheeducationgroupsas

21Wediscuss,below,changesinthejointemploymentandretirementofcouples.22Notethatthemeanlaborforceparticipationrateforawomanage59,whoisotherraceandinthe1931-33birthcohortisgivenbytheconstanttermincol.(2).

moreattendedcollege,participationratesfortheentiregroupincreasedbybirthcohort,

eventhoughwithineachofthegroupstherewasnobirthcohorttrend.

Incols.(3)and(4)weaddlifecycleparticipationvariablesincludingwhetherthe

womanwasneverinthelaborforceduringtheinterval.Theadditionofthelifecycle

measureshaslittleimpactonthecohorteffectforthecollegegraduatewomenbornmost

recently.Earlierlaborforceparticipationmattersmoreforthelesseducatedgroupthanfor

thecollegeeducated.Forcollegegraduates,whatmattersmostiswhetherthewomendid

notworkatallintheinterval,eventhoughthatgroupissmall.Themuchhigherlaborforce

participationforthe1949-51cohortofcollegegraduatewomenremainsunexplainedeven

withcontrolsforcurrentmaritalandhealthstatus,asseenincol.(6).

Lastly,Table4looksinmoredepthatcollegegraduatesinpartbecausetheir

participationratesarethehighestatallages,especiallyamongthoseintheirsixties.In

addition,thefractionofolderwomenwhoarecollegegraduateshasgreatlyexpandedand

willcontinuetodosogiventheincreaseofcollegegraduatesatyoungerages.Boththe

increaseofcollegegraduationforfuturecohortsandtheirhigherparticipationatolder

ageswouldimplyanincreaseinthefutureemploymentofolderwomen.

Table4includesthepredetermined(lifecycleparticipationandeducation)and

contemporaneous(maritalandhealthstatus)variables.Inaddition,weincludewhether

thewomanwaseveremployedasateacher.

CohorteffectsarelargeforthemostrecentinTable4,echoingthefindingfor

collegegraduatewomeninTable3.Thecoefficientremainslargeandstatistically

significantdespitetheinclusionofcurrentmaritalstatusandlifecycleparticipation

variables.Onlyincol.(5),withtheinclusionofthefractionofyearsfrom25to54thatthe

womanwasinthelaborforcedoesthecoefficientgreatlydecline.

Teachingwasthesinglemostimportantoccupationforcollegegraduatewomen

amongmanyofHRScohorts.Around45percentofcollegegraduatewomeninthecohorts

bornfrom1931to1941wereteachersatsomepoint,asseeninFigure6.Amuchsmaller

fractionofwomen(around30percent)forthelatercohortsconsideredhere,1945to1951,

wereteachers.Andanevensmallerfraction(around20percent)wereteachersinthelate

1950sbirthcohort,agroupstilltooyoungtobeobservedintheirsixties.

Thosewhowereeverateacherhadparticipationrateswhentheywere59to63

yearsoldthatwereabout5percentagepointslowerthanothercollegegraduatewomen.

Theimpactofeverbeingateacherincreaseswhencontrollingforlifecycleparticipation,

showingthatteachersworkmorethanothersearlierintheirlivesbutarelesslikelyto

worklaterintheirlives.Theirearlierworkwouldindicatetheywouldbemorelikelyto

worklater,buttheyarelesslikely.Partofthereasonwhyteachershaveloweremployment

astheyageisduetotheirdefined-benefitpensions,andthustheirlong-termplanstoretire

afterafixedperiod.Otherpossibilitiesinclude“burnout”onthejobandlackof

advancement.23

TheTable4analysisreinforcesthefindingsfromTable3thatthecohorteffectfor

themostrecentbirthgroupisnotextinguishedbytheothercovariatesevenwhenthe

lifecycleparticipationratevariableisincluded,asincols.(3),(4)and(5).Thecoefficient

forthe1949-51birthcohortisaround10to12percentagepoints,abitsmallerthan

withoutthe“everateacher”variablebutstilllargeandsignificant.

Anotherimportantfindingforforecastingwomen’sfutureparticipationatolder

agesisthatemploymentinthe45to54-year-oldrangeisthebestpredictorofwhetheran

individualwillremainemployedintoherearlysixties.Therefore,eventhoughparticipation

rateshavetwisted,asnotedinthediscussionofFigure5,thefactthatparticipationisstill

higherforthemostrecentcohortswhentheyhavereachedtheirfiftiessuggeststhatrecent

cohortsofcollegegraduatewomenwillremaininthelaborforcethroughtheirsixtiesand

seventiesevenmorethandidtheirpredecessors.Thesamedoesnotappeartrueforthe

non-collegegraduategroup.

23Fitzpatrick(ThisVolume)exploresreasonsforthedecreaseinemploymentatolderagesamongthosewhowereeverateacher.

WehavealsorunthesameregressionsasinTables2,3,and4wheretheoutcomeis

workingfull-time,ratherthanjustbeinginthelaborforce.Theresults(giveninAppendix

TableA4fortheTable3comparison)forfull-timework,forbothcollegegraduatesand

thosebelowcollegegraduationlevel,revealsimilarcohorttrends.24Thus,thecross-cohort

increasesinlaborforceparticipationforolderwomenaresubstantiallydrivenbyincreases

infull-timework.ThesefindingsareconsistentwiththosefromtheCPS,giveninFigure4,

showinganincreaseinthefractionoffemalelaborforceparticipantsemployedfulltime

amongthose55to74yearsold.

Whatabouttheroleofjobenjoyment?TheHRSallowsustoexploretheanswerfor

women59to63-year-oldforwhominformationexistsontheirattitudetowardstheirjob

sixyearspreviously.Becauseoftherestrictiononhavingajobsixyearsago,weomitthe

earlierbirthcohortsandincludethosebornfrom1937to1951.Weaskhowawoman’s

attitudeaboutherjobsixyearsearlierimpactshercontemporaneousemployment.The

attitudevariableinquiredinallyearsexcept1992whetheranemployedpersonenjoyed

herjobalotornotatallinfourgradationsofstrength.

Wepresenttheanalysisinseveralways.InTable5cols.(1)to(5)weincludeall

whowereemployedsixyearsbeforeandincol.(6)weaddthosenotemployedsixyears

previouslyandgivethemaseparatedummyforthejobattituderesponse.Cols.(1),(2),(4)

and(6)containthebasicvariablesandcols.(3)and(5)addthelifecyclelaborforce

variable,maritalstatus,spousalworkandhealthstatus.

Col.(1)providesbaselineresultsexcludingtheattitudevariablebutusingthesame

samplelimitedtothoseemployedsixyearsago.Cols.(4)and(5)explorethecharacteristics

ofthejobheldsixyearspriorbyaddingthatthehoursandearningsonthatjob.

Thosewhohadexpressedgreaterenjoymentabouttheirjobssixyearspreviously24WealsorunthesamelaborforceregressionsasinTables2,3,and4forwomen56to58yearsoldandgivetheTable3resultsinAppendixTableA5.Usingwomen56to58yearsoldallowsustoincludeanotherbirthcohort,1952-54.LiketheTable3results,collegegraduatewomenincohortsbornafter1948showlargercohorteffectsthanforearliercohorts.Includingthefullsetofpre-existingcharacteristicslowersthecohorteffectestimatesforthemorerecentcohortsatage56to58somewhatmorethanfortheoldergroupofwomeninTable3.

haveahigherprobabilityofbeinginthelaborforcefrom59to63yearsold.25The

differences,moreover,arelarge:10percentagepoints(onabaseofaround70)between

thosewhoagreeanddisagreewiththestatementand20to22percentagepointsbetween

thosewhostronglydisagreeandthosewhoagreeorstronglyagree.26

Theadditionofthejobattitudequestionresultsinfewchangesintheother

coefficients.Mostimportantisthattheimpactofeducationisaboutthesame,ascanbe

seenbycomparingthecoefficientsforeducationincols.(1)and(2).Therefore,theimpact

ofjobenjoymentaddstotheinfluenceonworkinglongerofthetypeofjobsthatmore

highlyeducatedwomenhave.Self-reportedjobenjoymentisnotthemediatingfactorfor

whyeducationmattersinwomen’sworkinglonger.

Theresultsarenotmateriallyalteredbytheadditionofvariouscovariatesincluding

currenthealth,maritalstatusandthefractionofyearsthewomanworkedfromage35to

44.Alsoofinterestisthattheadditionsofthehoursandearningsinthejobsixyearsprior

havelittleimpactontheattitudinalcoefficients.Thosewhoworkedlongerhoursinthe

pastaremorelikelytoworknow,andthatisinadditiontotheirenjoymentonthatjob.

Thesummaryfindingisthatolderwomenhavehadsubstantialincreasesinlabor

forceparticipation.Theinclusionofcovariates,suchaseducationandlifecycle

participation,reducesthepatternofrisingcohorteffects.Butforthecollegegraduate

group,thelaborforceincreaseforthemostrecentcohortsnowintheirsixtiesisnot

reducedbytheinclusionoftheadditionalcovariates.Themostrecentcohortswithless

thancollegecompletion,however,havehadsmallerincreasesandthesedoget

extinguishedwiththeexpandedsetofpredeterminedcovariates(detailededucation

attainmentandearlierlaborforceparticipation),althoughtheincreaseineducationwithin

thenon-collegegraduategroupservedtoincreaseparticipationrates.

25Wehavealsodonethesameregressionsforworkeightyearspreviouslywithsimilarresults.26Thefractionagreeingwiththestatementaboutenjoyingacurrentjobislarge,around60percent.Anadditional25to30percentstronglyagreedwiththestatement.Onlyabout10to15percentdidnotagreewiththestatementandcollegegraduatewomenhadasomewhatlargerfractionwhogreatlyagreedwiththestatement.

Anotherfindingofnoteisthatjobenjoymentsixyearsearlierhasastronginfluence

onwomen’slateremployment.Asjobsbecomelessonerousandmoreenjoyableandas

occupationsbecomepartofone’sidentity,womenworklonger.

C. Lifecycle Labor Force Participation

Giventheimportanceoflifecyclelaborforceparticipationforlaterwork,wenow

explorehowlifetimeemploymentchangedacrosscohortsbornfrom1931to1954.27We

dividelifetimeemploymentintofivequintiles—from0to20percentoftheyearsunder

considerationto80to100percent.Figure7,partA,showsthepercentageinthelabor

forceinthefivequintilescoveringthe30yearsfromage25to54forallwomen.PartB

givesthesefiguresforthegroupintheyoungestten-yeargrouping,25to34yearsold.To

avoidcomplicatingthefigure,weshowonlytheearliestandthemostrecentcohorts:1931-

1936and1949-1954intwo-yearbrackets.

Thefractionofwomeninthelaborforce80to100percentofthetimewhenthey

were25to54yearsoldexpandedfrom20percenttomorethan50percentacrossthese

cohorts(seeFigure7,partA).Theflipsideisthesharpdecreaseofthosewhospentfewer

than20percentofthe30-yearperiodshowninthelaborforce.Themiddlethreequintiles

changedlittleintermsofthefractionofthetotal.

Moreextremechangesoccurredforwomeninthe25to34-year-oldgroup(see

Figure7,partB)thanfortheotherten-yearagegroups(notshown).Onceagain,the

middlethreequintilesshowlittlechange.Allthechangearisesbecauseofanincreasein

thehighestandadecreaseinthelowestquintiles.

Theearliestcohortsshownhadlifecycleparticipationratesthatwerealmost

uniformlydistributedacrossthequintiles.Butbythe1949to1954cohortsabout50

percentwereinthelaborforceformorethan80percentofthe30yearsandfewwerein

thelaborforceforlessthan20percentoftheinterval.

27ForadetaileddiscussionoflifecyclelaborforceparticipationseeGoldinandMitchell(2017).

Tomakesenseoftheselifecycletrajectories,theconceptsofheterogeneityand

homogeneitywillbeuseful.28Whenparticipationratesforabirthcohortincreasewithage,

allwomeninthecohortcouldbeworkingmoreweeksperyearormorewomencouldbe

enteringthelaborforce.Thatis,changecouldbeattheintensiveorextensivemargins(ora

combination).Thegroupthatexhibitsmoreoftheformeristermed“homogeneous,”since

allwomenareincreasingtheirworklevel,andthegroupthatexhibitsmoreofthelatteris

termed“heterogeneous,”becauseonlysomewomenincreasetheirparticipation.The

weightoftheevidencehistoricallyisthatmostwomenare“heterogeneous”andthat

persistenceissubstantial.

LookingbackattheconstructedcohortlinesinFigure5,themostrecentcohorts

displayflatandevensomewhatdecreasingparticipationratesovertheirbrieflifecycles.

Thatis,participationratesarehigherattheloweragesthanatthemiddle.Butifmost

workingwomenpersistinthelaborforce,thenthefindingthatearlyparticipationmatters

significantlyimpliesthatthereductioninparticipation,ortheabsenceofanincrease,for

themostrecentcohortsintheirmidyearswillnotmattermuchfortheiremploymentlater

inlife.Thekeypointisthatforearliercohorts,womenwhoentered(orreentered)the

laborforceinmid-lifewereprobablytheleastpersistent.

D. Working Women, Working Couples

Theregressionsrevealedacommonlyknownrelationshipthatcouplesgenerally

worktogetherandenjoyleisureandconsumptiontogether.Currentlymarriedwomenare

farmorelikelytobeinthelaborforceintheirolderyearsiftheirhusbandsarealso

working.IntheTable2,col.(6)regression,marriedwomenwithaworkingspouseare20

percentagepointsmorelikelytobeinthelaborforcethanareothermarriedwomen.

Figure8demonstratestwoadditionalpoints.Thedatausethreecategoriesof

women59to63yearsold:thosecurrentlymarriedwithahusbandworking,those

28SeeGoldin(1989)andHeckmanandWillis(1977)ontheconceptsofheterogeneityandhomogeneityappliedtolaborforceparticipationoverthelifecycle.Olivetti(2006)modelsanunderlyingreasonforgreaterpersistenceinthereturnstoexperienceanddemonstratestheincreasedreturnsfromthe1970stothe1990s.

currentlymarriedwithanon-workinghusbandandthosenotcurrentlymarried.

Participationratesofallcurrentlymarriedwomenroserelativetothethirdgroup.In

addition,theratesforcurrentlymarriedwomenwithaworkingspouseincreasedthemost.

Agreaterfractionofmarriedcouplestodayarebothworkingratherthanbeing

retiredtogetherwhereas20yearsagoagreaterpercentagewasretiredtogether.29For

marriedcouplesinwhichthewifewasbornfrom1931to1936,34percentwereboth

retiredand25percentwerebothworkingwhenshewas59to63yearsold.Those

fractionshavechangedtojust22percentretiredtogetherforthemostrecentcohorts

(1949to1951birthyears)and41percentbothworking.Furthermore,inthemostrecent

cohortsanalmostequalfractionhadthewifeworkingandthehusbandnotworking(18

percent)ashadthehusbandworkingandthewifenotworking(19percent).

E. Concluding Remarks

Wehaveexploredtheincreaseinthelaborforceparticipationofolderwomen.Our

mainfindingsandconclusionsregarding“womenworkinglonger”are:

• Increasedparticipationofwomenfromtheirlatefiftiesandbeyondbeganinthelate

1980s,beforetheriseinoldermen’slaborforceparticipationandlongbeforethe

economicdownturnsofthe2000s,especiallytheGreatRecession.

• Theincreaseshavebeenlarge.Amongwomen60-64yearsold,participation

increasedfrom34to51percentduringthelast25yearsandfrom45to61percent

forcollegegraduates.

• Increasedlaborforceparticipationofolderwomenhasbeendisproportionatelyfor

thoseworkingfull-timeandfull-year.

• Womenwhoworkedmorewhenyoung,workmorewhentheyareolder.

• Womenareworkinglongernotmainlybecauseofaninsufficiencyinretirement

savings,althoughthatisanimportantissueformanyinrecentyears.Betterhealth

29Thesefindingsareconsistentwiththecomplementarityoftheleisuretimeofolderhusbandsandwives.Schirle(2008)demonstrates,forthreecountries,thattheincreaseinwomen’slaborforceparticipationatolderageshasledtoincreasedmen’sparticipation.SeealsoBlau(1998).

isamediatingfactor;thosewithlowwealtharefarmoreofteninworsephysical

condition.

• Agreaterfractionofmarriedcouplesarenowworkingtogetherratherthanbeing

retiredtogether,whereas20yearsagoagreaterfractionofcoupleswereboth

retired.

• Womenwhoenjoyedtheirjobssixtoeightyearsbeforetheirsixties,arefarmore

likelytoremainemployed.

Whataboutthefutureofwomenworkinglonger?Thetwo-decadestagnationof

participationratesforwomenintheirthirtiesandfortiescouldindicatethatincreasesat

laterageswillnotcontinue.Butthestagnationmaynotimpactworkinglongerbecause

therehavebeenupticksforcohortsintheirfortiesandthereisanincreasedfractionofthe

populationwhoarecollegegraduates.Thecohorteffectforcollegegraduatesinthemost

recentbirthcohortthatcanbeexplored,thatfrom1949to1951,remainslargeand

statisticallysignificantevenaftercontrollingforearlierlaborforceparticipation.The

currentchallengeistounderstandhowthevariousfactorsincludedinouranalysisare

likelytoimpactthelaborforceparticipationofcurrentcohortsastheyage.

Figure1:FemaleLaborForceParticipationbyFive-YearAgeGroups,1962to2014

Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2014.

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54

55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

55-5950-54

Figure2:FemaleLaborForceParticipationbyFive-YearAgeGroupsforCurrentlyMarriedCollegeGraduates,1965to2013(three-yearcenteredmovingaverages)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

50-5445-49

Figure3:GenderGapinLaborForceParticipationatOlderAges,1962to2014:CPS

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

55-59 F 60-64 F 55-59 M 60-64 M

Female, 55-59

Female, 60-64

Male, 55-59

Male, 60-64

Figure4:WomenEmployedFull-Time,Full-YearamongLaborForceParticipantsduringtheYear,1963to2013:CPS

Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2013.Notes:Bothnumeratoranddenominatorrefertothecalendaryear.A“laborforceparticipantduringtheyear”isanyonewhoworkedduringtheyear.Three-yearcenteredmovingaveragesareshown.Full-time,full-yearworkersarethosewhoworked40ormoreweeksand35ormorehoursperweek.

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

Figure5:LaborForceParticipationRatesforWomenbyFive-YearBirthCohorts(1930-34to1970-74)andFive-YearAgeGroups(25-29to74-79years):CPS

A.AllEducationGroups

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54

1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74

B.CollegeGraduates

Notes:Everydatapointineachgraphcontains25birthyearsandages.

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54

1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74

Figure6:FractionofCollegeGraduateWomenEverEmployedinTeaching,for1931to1959BirthCohorts:HRS

Source:HRS,RestrictedAccessData.Notes:“Everemployedinteaching”iscalculatedwithcodeprovidedbyMariaFitzpatrick(seeFitzpatrick,ThisVolume),whichusesdetailedoccupationsofrespondentspriortotheirfirstHRSinterview.Thedashedlineisthethree-yearcenteredmovingaverage.

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960

3-year moving average

Ever a teacher

BirthYear

Figure7:LifecycleLaborForceParticipationintheHRSandSocialSecurityEarningsDataforSelectedBirthCohorts

A.AllWomen,25to54Years

B.AllWomen,25to34Years

0-20 >20-40 >40-60 >60-80 >80-100

1931-32 1933-34 1935-36 1949-50 1951-52 1953-54

1950s1930s

SourceandNotes:Figuresgivethedistributionofyearsspentinthelaborforcebywomeninvariouscohortsandbyagegroup.Laborforceparticipationisdefinedashavingatleastoneofthefollowing:(a)havingSSearningsabove(10hours´52weeks´minimumwageinthatyear)intheyearspriortotheHRSsurveyoftherespondent;(b)RespondingintheHRSthatthepersonwas“inthelaborforce”whenthepersonhasapositiveHRSweight;(c)HavingW-2earningsaboveminimumyearlywageinthatyear;(d)Workingforthestate,federalormunicipalgovernmentinyearspriortotheHRSsurvey.HRSpersonweightsareusedadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.

Figure8:LaborForceParticipationbyYearofBirth,CurrentMaritalStatusandHusband’sEmploymentfor59to63-Year-OldWomen

Source:HRSNotes:Allwomen59to63yearsoldareincluded;HRSpersonweightsapplied.

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

SpouseWorking SpouseNotWorking NotCurrentlyMarried

NotCurrentlyMarried

BirthYear

SpouseNotWorking

SpouseWorking

Table1:LaborForceParticipationRatesforMalesandFemales,55to74Years:CPSAgeGroup EducationalGroup LaborForceParticipation

RateinPercentagePointChange

c.1988toc.20131987-89 2012-14

Women 55-59 All 0.522 0.673 15.1 Collegegraduates 0.685 0.779 9.4 Non-collegegrad. 0.499 0.627 12.8 60-64 All 0.341 0.514 17.3 Collegegraduates 0.454 0.612 15.8 Non-collegegrad. 0.330 0.472 14.3 65-69 All 0.153 0.276 12.3 Collegegraduates 0.240 0.367 12.7 Non-collegegrad. 0.145 0.244 9.9 70-74 All 0.072 0.157 8.6 Collegegraduates 0.130 0.214 8.3 Non-collegegrad. 0.066 0.142 7.5 Men 55-59 All 0.796 0.779 -1.8 Collegegraduates 0.886 0.896 1.0 Non-collegegrad. 0.773 0.728 -4.6 60-64 All 0.548 0.607 5.9 Collegegraduates 0.682 0.727 4.5 Non-collegegrad. 0.516 0.543 2.8 65-69 All 0.258 0.380 12.2 Collegegraduates 0.402 0.491 8.9 Non-collegegrad. 0.231 0.321 9.0 70-74 All 0.155 0.232 7.7 Collegegraduates 0.254 0.324 7.0 Non-collegegrad. 0.141 0.191 5.0 Sources:CPS-ASECmicro-dataMarch1987,1988,1989,2012,2013,and2014.

Table2:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAge59-63Years,AllEducationGroups:HRS

LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years

Sample LinkedSample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.00810 -0.0110 -0.0139 -0.0158 -0.0128 -0.0143 (0.0192) (0.0207) (0.0203) (0.0197) (0.0201) (0.0186) 1937-39 0.0141 0.00448 0.000715 -0.0146 -0.00357 -0.00521 (0.0191) (0.0206) (0.0202) (0.0199) (0.0202) (0.0186) 1940-42 0.0163 0.0137 -0.00832 -0.0354 -0.0178 -0.0312 (0.0203) (0.0218) (0.0211) (0.0206) (0.0210) (0.0195) 1943-45 0.0464* 0.0320 -0.00461 -0.0402 -0.0184 -0.0321 (0.0229) (0.0247) (0.0239) (0.0235) (0.0237) (0.0223) 1946-48 0.0635** 0.0529* 0.00327 -0.0389 -0.0141 -0.0257 (0.0217) (0.0240) (0.0238) (0.0235) (0.0238) (0.0220) 1949-51 0.0973*** 0.0888*** 0.0300 -0.0110 0.0120 0.000839 (0.0217) (0.0259) (0.0250) (0.0246) (0.0249) (0.0234)Highschoolgrad. 0.161*** 0.121*** 0.141*** 0.0583***

(0.0180) (0.0176) (0.0180) (0.0171)Somecollege 0.251*** 0.199*** 0.217*** 0.106***

(0.0205) (0.0202) (0.0207) (0.0195)Collegegraduate 0.295*** 0.237*** 0.251*** 0.115***

(0.0252) (0.0252) (0.0260) (0.0250)MA 0.348*** 0.280*** 0.292*** 0.159***

(0.0288) (0.0286) (0.0298) (0.0276)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.468*** 0.364*** 0.400*** 0.227***

(0.0458) (0.0453) (0.0458) (0.0451)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.233*** 0.216*** (0.0174) (0.0165)Careercond.35-44 0.128*** (0.0195) Currentlymarried -0.157***

(0.0309)Divorced 0.0806*

(0.0321)Widow 0.0113

(0.0324)SpouseinLF 0.186***

(0.0146)Healthstatus no no no no no yesAgedummies Yes yes yes yes yes yes

Racedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes

Constant 0.456*** 0.430*** 0.326*** 0.261*** 0.323*** 0.165***

(0.0331) (0.0394) (0.0365) (0.0367) (0.0366) (0.0426) N 18,383 15,431 15,431 15,431 15,431 15,431R-squared 0.028 0.029 0.073 0.104 0.082 0.183Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>)andthecareercondition(Careercond.<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.The“linkedsample”indicatesthattheindividualgavepermissionforSocialSecurityearningsdatatobelinked.Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforce,careercondition35-44,andhealthstatus.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweights;theweightsareadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsampleincols.(2)to(6).Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001

Table3:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAges59to63,byEducation:HRS

LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.0234 0.0308 -0.0263 0.0346 -0.0246 0.0390 (0.0219) (0.0522) (0.0212) (0.0506) (0.0200) (0.0472) 1937-39 -0.00195 0.0182 -0.0218 0.0234 -0.0102 0.0182 (0.0217) (0.0543) (0.0212) (0.0545) (0.0197) (0.0521) 1940-42 -0.0133 0.0357 -0.0441* 0.0188 -0.0388 0.0160 (0.0231) (0.0515) (0.0223) (0.0506) (0.0212) (0.0475) 1943-45 -0.0101 0.0509 -0.0468 0.0219 -0.0370 0.0212 (0.0266) (0.0537) (0.0260) (0.0542) (0.0245) (0.0526) 1946-48 -0.00304 0.0589 -0.0470 0.0235 -0.0345 0.0377 (0.0268) (0.0522) (0.0262) (0.0527) (0.0247) (0.0489) 1949-51 0.00557 0.126* -0.0389 0.103* -0.0210 0.0980* (0.0291) (0.0498) (0.0287) (0.0504) (0.0272) (0.0486)Highschoolgrad. 0.158*** 0.115*** 0.0520**

(0.0180) (0.0176) (0.0172) Somecollege 0.249*** 0.193*** 0.101*** (0.0205) (0.0202) (0.0197) MA 0.0502 0.0420 0.0370 (0.0316) (0.0313) (0.0295)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.167*** 0.136** 0.111*

(0.0483) (0.0492) (0.0489)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.208*** 0.0739 0.192*** 0.0709 (0.0273) (0.0573) (0.0254) (0.0589)NeverinLF35-44 -0.0548* -0.153* -0.0522* -0.150* (0.0254) (0.0730) (0.0238) (0.0716)Currentlymarried -0.147*** -0.243***

(0.0350) (0.0649)Divorced 0.0613 0.119

(0.0368) (0.0638)Widow 0.00458 -0.00416

(0.0364) (0.0712)SpouseinLF 0.177*** 0.225***

(0.0160) (0.0357)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes

Constant 0.285*** 0.859*** 0.258*** 0.841*** 0.167** 0.638***

(0.0385) (0.0629) (0.0434) (0.0751) (0.0508) (0.0999) N 12,789 2,642 12,789 2,642 12,789 2,642R-squared 0.060 0.041 0.097 0.059 0.179 0.140Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatedegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001

Table4:LaborForceParticipationamongCollegeGraduateWomenatAges59to63:HRS

LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years FullSample LinkedSample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)Yearofbirth 1934-36 0.00774 0.0272 0.0308 0.0458 0.0294 (0.0497) (0.0524) (0.0507) (0.0470) (0.0508) 1937-39 0.00217 0.0169 0.0221 0.0212 0.00996 (0.0503) (0.0543) (0.0544) (0.0508) (0.0538) 1940-42 0.0389 0.0327 0.0154 0.0193 0.00204 (0.0484) (0.0518) (0.0508) (0.0473) (0.0509) 1943-45 0.0370 0.0402 0.00983 0.0179 -0.0172 (0.0503) (0.0541) (0.0543) (0.0526) (0.0550) 1946-48 0.0465 0.0482 0.0114 0.0110 -0.0256 (0.0475) (0.0525) (0.0528) (0.0503) (0.0544) 1949-51 0.0957* 0.117* 0.0931 0.105* 0.0524 (0.0452) (0.0500) (0.0505) (0.0460) (0.0510)Everateacher -0.0477 -0.0483 -0.0545 -0.0892** -0.0591 (0.0288) (0.0315) (0.0309) (0.0294) (0.0305)MA 0.0538 0.0578 0.0504 0.0381 0.0405

(0.0296) (0.0326) (0.0322) (0.0306) (0.0319)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.160*** 0.164*** 0.133** 0.107** 0.111*

(0.0447) (0.0470) (0.0479) (0.0411) (0.0461)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.0673 (0.0573) NeverinLF35-44 -0.164* (0.0731) LifecycleLFP45-54 0.379*** (0.0710) NeverinLF45-54 -0.178 (0.0973) LifecycleLFP25-54 0.355*** (0.0655)Healthstatus no no no no noAgedummies yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yesMaritalstatusdummies yes yes yes yes yesJobstatusofhusband yes yes yes yes yesConstant 0.855*** 0.876*** 0.866*** 0.580*** 0.675***

(0.0591) (0.0629) (0.0755) (0.0857) (0.0708)

N 3,137 2,642 2,642 2,642 2,642R-squared 0.040 0.044 0.062 0.141 0.080Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>)andthecareercondition(Careercond.<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.*Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.The“linkedsample”indicatesthattheindividualgavepermissionforSocialSecurityearningsdatatobelinked.Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;andotherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.TheregressionsareweightedbytheHRSpersonweights;theweightsareadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsampleincols.(2)to(5).Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001

Table5:RoleofPastWorkAttitudeforEmploymentofWomen59to63Years:HRS

LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years Worked6YearsAgo All (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Enjoyjob6yrsago Stronglyagree 0.223** 0.203** 0.235** 0.212** 0.229** (0.0720) (0.0694) (0.0723) (0.0693) (0.0718) Agree 0.198** 0.189** 0.209** 0.198** 0.202** (0.0709) (0.0680) (0.0713) (0.0680) (0.0708) Disagree 0.101 0.0932 0.105 0.0983 0.103 (0.0710) (0.0686) (0.0715) (0.0686) (0.0709) Nojob6yrsago -0.322*** (0.0708)Yearofbirth 1940-42 0.00466 -0.00237 -0.0113 -0.0000308 -0.00691 -0.00659 (0.0253) (0.0255) (0.0243) (0.0255) (0.0243) (0.0182) 1943-45 -0.000282 -0.00518 -0.00894 0.000100 -0.0000508 -0.00147 (0.0281) (0.0281) (0.0271) (0.0280) (0.0270) (0.0210) 1946-48 0.00712 0.00303 0.00475 0.00565 0.0116 0.000706 (0.0285) (0.0285) (0.0270) (0.0286) (0.0271) (0.0213) 1949-51 0.0153 0.00815 0.0102 0.0157 0.0210 0.00376 (0.0290) (0.0291) (0.0282) (0.0289) (0.0280) (0.0224)Highschoolgrad. 0.0859** 0.0865** 0.0342 0.0799* 0.0304 0.0549**

(0.0326) (0.0325) (0.0329) (0.0325) (0.0329) (0.0199)Somecollege 0.145*** 0.138*** 0.0682* 0.130*** 0.0632 0.0972*** (0.0335) (0.0335) (0.0340) (0.0339) (0.0341) (0.0217)BA 0.164*** 0.153*** 0.0594 0.143*** 0.0550 0.119*** (0.0377) (0.0378) (0.0385) (0.0384) (0.0389) (0.0273)MA 0.218*** 0.210*** 0.118** 0.198*** 0.112** 0.171***

(0.0384) (0.0381) (0.0390) (0.0392) (0.0397) (0.0296)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.294*** 0.283*** 0.177** 0.257*** 0.165** 0.238***

(0.0505) (0.0516) (0.0550) (0.0539) (0.0569) (0.0445)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.0456 0.0165 (0.0265) (0.0271) (ln)Hours 0.0864*** 0.0775*** (0.0208) (0.0194) (ln)Earnings -0.00252 -0.00558 (0.00966) (0.00932) Healthstatus no no yes no yes noAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes

Maritalstatusdummies no no yes no yes noJobstatusofhusband no no yes no yes noConstant 0.560*** 0.385*** 0.293** 0.0942 0.0785 0.450***

(0.0652) (0.0936) (0.0991) (0.136) (0.136) (0.0794) N 5050 5050 5050 5050 5050 7736R-squared 0.032 0.041 0.104 0.051 0.112 0.288Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.Incols.(1)through(5)onlythosewithpositivepersonweightsandworkingsixyearsago(orwhohadamissingjobattitudequestion)areincluded;col.(6)includesthosenotworking.ForvariablesthatareidenticaltothoseinTables2to4,seenotestothosetables.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:“enjoyjob6yrsago”stronglydisagree;1937-39birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearethecoefficientsondummyvariablesforvariousmissingvariables.Theseincludemissing(orzero)hourssixyearsagoandmissingearningssixyearsago.Inaddition,thedummyvariableforthe“other”jobattitudecategory(togetherwiththesmallfractionofmissingobservationsforthatvariable)isomittedinthetable.“Enjoyjob6yrs.ago”isfromaquestionaskedofrespondentswithacurrentjobwhoareaskedtoexpressalevelofagreementwiththequestion“Ireallyenjoygoingtowork.”Cols.(4)and(5)add(ln)hours(hoursworkedperweekinmainjob)and(ln)annualearnings(sumofwageorsalaryincomeplusaddedpayandearningsfromasecondjobaswellasthosefromprofessionalpracticeortradeincome.Earningsaredeflatedto1992usingtheCPI.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001

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GoldinandKatz,Appendix-44-

Appendix

HealthandRetirementStudy:GeneralComments

TheHealthandRetirementStudy(knownastheHRSandastheUniversityofMichiganHealthandRetirementStudy)isawidely-useddataset.Moreinformationcanbefoundat:http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/andinthevolumeAppendixontheHRS.

HealthandRetirementStudy:ConstructionofVariables

LifecycleLaborForceParticipation

Lifecyclelaborforceparticipationisintendedtomeasurethefractionofaperiodduringwhichtheindividualwasinthelaborforce.Thetimeperiodweconsiderisfrom25to54yearsandwesubdividethatintothreedecades.WeprimarilyusetheinformationfromtheSocialSecurityearningsrecords(andtheW-2formsafter1977)tofigureoutwhetheranindividualwasemployedduringayear.WecandothisonlyforindividualswhogavepermissiontotheHRStolinktheirsurveytotheirSocialSecurityearningsrecords.Onaverage80percentofthesampleagreetothislinkage.

Ingeneral,wedefinesomeoneasalaborforceparticipantifduringayeartheirannualearningswereatleastequaltothefederalminimumwageinthatyeartimes10hourstimes52weeks.ComplicationsarisebecausesomeindividualswereexemptfromtheSocialSecurityearningstax.Theseexemptemployeesweregenerallygovernmentworkersandforoursampleofwomen,teacherswouldhavebeenanimportantexemptcategory.DuringtheinitialinterviewtheHRSaskedwhethertheindividualhadbeenemployedbythegovernment(includingmunicipal,stateandfederalgovernmentpositions)andifthatwasthecase,thepersoncouldlisttwoperiodsofemployment.WecounttheindividualinthelaborforceifthepersondidnotpaytheSocialSecurityearningstaxinsomeyearbutstatedthattheiremploymentwasinthegovernmentforthatperiod.ItshouldbenotedthatwhentheW-2formsbecomeavailable,thereisnoproblemwithexemptstatussincetheformsincludeallW-2income.Inaddition,someHRSrespondentsweresurveyedwhentheywereintheirearlyfiftiesandweusetheHRSsurveydatawhenitexists.ThuswedeterminelaborforcestatusonthebasisofvariouspiecesofinformationincludingtheHRSsurvey,theSocialSecurityearningsrecordsandtheW-2forms.

CareerConditionVariable

Similartotheconstructionofthelifecyclelaborforcevariable,wecreatea“careercondition”variablethatassesseswhetherindividualswhowereinthelaborforceearnedabovesomeamount.Theamountisgivenbysomefraction(wehaveusedboth0.5and

0.75)ofthemedianannualwageofa(full-time,full-year)maleworkerinthegivenyear.Becausetheperiodweareconsideringpredatesthemicro-datafortheCPS,weusethepublishedsurveystoobtainthemalemedianannualwage.Inourempiricalworkwedefinethecareerconditionbetweenages35and44years(“Careercond.35-44”)asthefractionofyearsintheageintervaltheindividualexceeded50percentoftheearningsofthemedianmalefull-time,full-yearworker.

EarningsdataforthiscalculationareobtainedprimarilyfromtheSocialSecurityearningsrecords,theW-2formswhenavailable,andtheHRSearningsdatawhenitexistsfortheindividual.Iftheindividualwasinatax-exemptemployment(anddidnothaveW-2orHRSearningsdata),weassumethattheincomewassufficienttoexceedthegiven“careercondition.”

SocialSecurityEarningsRecordLinkageintheHRS

ThefractionoffemaleHRSrespondentswhoagreedatsomepointtothelinkageoftheirHRSstudytotheirSocialSecurityearningsrecordishigh.Justaround11percentarenotlinkedfromthe1931to1942birthcohorts.Thefractionincreasesto15percentfor1943to1945andthento21percentfor1946to1948.Thehighrateofnon-linkageforthe1950scohortsisprobablybecausetheyhavehadfeweryearstoagreetohavetheirrecordslinkedsincerespondentsareaskedduringeachwave.ThefractionnotlinkedwillprobablyfallduringthenextwavesoftheHRSasmorerespondentsagreetothelinkage.

Individualswhodidnotagreetothelinkagedonotdifferbasedoneducationalattainmentandcurrentmaritalstatuswiththosewhodidagree.Themaindeterminantoflinkageisthenumberofyearstheindividualhasbeeninthedatasetand,therefore,howmanytimestheindividualhasbeenaskedpermissionforthelinkage.

ComparisonsoftheHRSandtheCPS

LaborForceParticipationRates

TheHRScloselytracksthelaborforceparticipationratesgivenbytheCPSforthesameagegroupsandbirthcohorts.Theonlymajordifferencesoccurforthose65yearsandolder.TheHRSlaborforcedataarealwaysgreaterthantheCPSdataineveryyearfrom1992to2010fortheseagegroupsbutarenotfortheyoungergroupings.Theprecisereasonisunclear.OnepossibilityisthattheCPSdoesabetterjobinterviewingindividualsingroupquarters.

MaritalStatusandEducation

BoththeHRSmaritalstatusandeducationvariablestracktheCPSwellforindividuals51to56yearsold.Cohortsbornfrom1935to1952aregiveninAppendixTablesA2andA3.TheHRSsamplesarefairlysmallandaresubjecttoconsiderablesamplingerror.Itshouldbenotedthattheeducationdistributionsfor51to56-year-oldwomendifferfromthoseforyoungerwomeninthesamebirthcohortsduetoacommonphenomenonthatindividualsgaineducation,forrealorfictitiousreasons,astheyage.

TheHRScontainsapotentialcomplicationbecausesomepeopledidnotlistadegreeandtheirhighestdegreewasinferred.AccordingtotheRANDHRSCodebook(Chien2013,pp.132-33):“ThehighestdegreeisassignedbylookingatreportsfromTrackerandallwavesofdata.Thefirstnon-missingvalueisused.”Whentheactualdegreeismissing,itisimputedandabachelor’sdegreeisgiventothosewithRAEDYRS=16or17.Interestingly,theHRSandtheCPSdataforthesameagegroupsandbirthcohortsisremarkablysimilar.

ChildrenEverBorn

TheinformationonchildreneverbornintheHRSdiffersinvariouswaysfromthatintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.Butthemeannumberofchildrenforthesamecohortsineachofthetwosourcesisnotmuchdifferent.ItappearsthatthemaindifferenceisthatthefractionofwomenwhoreportnobirthsintheHRSislowerthanreportedintheCPS.Forexample,forwomenwithacollegedegreebornfrom1947to1951thefractionwithzerobirthsintheHRS(alloftherespondentsareolderthan44years)is19percent.ButintheCPSthefractionwithzerobirthsat40to44yearsoldisabout25percent.Forwomenwithlessthanacollegedegree,thefractionwithnobirthsintheHRSforthosebornfor1947to1951is10percentbutis13percentintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.

EventhoughHRSrespondentsreportalowerfractionwithnobirth,themeannumberofchildreneverborn,asgiveninAppendixFigureA2,issimilartothatgivenintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.TheHRSnumberisalmostalwaysslightlyhigher,especiallyforcohortsfromafter1945.

OnepossibilityisthatwomenintheHRSarealsoincludingadoptedandstepchildren.Thatpossibilityhasbeenexploredanddoesnotappeartobethesourceofthedifference.

AppendixFigureA1:ComparingLaborForceParticipationfortheHRSandtheCPS:Women50-54to70-74Years

Sources:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1963to2014;HRS.Notes:TheHRSisabiennialsurvey.SomeagegroupsarenotshownfortheHRSbecausethegroupisincompleteandtheparticipationratewouldbebiasedsinceitwouldomitsomeoftheolderagesinthegroup.

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69 Age 70-74HRS 50-54 HRS 55-59 HRS 60-64 HRS 65-69 HRS 70-74

AppendixFigureA2:ChildrenEverBornforWomen51to56YearsOldinHRSand40to44YearsOldinCPSinBirthCohorts1936to1951

Sources:CPSJuneFertilitySupplements,micro-data(1973to2014);HRS.

Notes:HRSpersonweightsareused;noweightsareusedfortheCPS.Childreneverbornistruncatedbelow10inbothsamples.Inbothdatasets,thevariableissupposedtogivethenumberofchildreneverborntotherespondentandnotthenumberoflivechildrenoradoptedorstepchildren

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960

CPS,40to44years HRS,51to56years

BirthYear

AppendixTableA1:FractionofFemaleHRSRespondentsLinkedtoSocialSecurityEarningsRecordsbyBirthCohort

BirthYears FractionLinked1931-33 0.8861934-36 0.8881937-39 0.8681940-42 0.8931943-45 0.8521946-48 0.7901949-51 0.7141952-54 0.682

Sources:HRS,RestrictedAccessData.

Notes:Personweightsused.LinkageusesHRSto2012.

AppendixTableA2:ComparingMaritalStatusfortheHRSandCPS:Women51to56Years

FractionCurrentlyMarried FractionEverMarriedbutnotcurrentlymarried

FractionNeverMarried

YearofBirth

HRS-SS FullHRS

CPS HRS-SS FullHRS

1931-32 . . 0.730 . . 0.230 . . 0.0401933-34 . . 0.731 . . 0.225 . . 0.0441935-36 0.737 0.730 0.716 0.236 0.246 0.237 0.026 0.024 0.0471937-38 0.741 0.730 0.712 0.230 0.240 0.244 0.029 0.029 0.0441939-40 0.739 0.734 0.704 0.214 0.222 0.244 0.047 0.043 0.0511941-42 0.641 0.647 0.684 0.330 0.322 0.262 0.030 0.030 0.0541943-44 0.552 0.537 0.678 0.378 0.387 0.273 0.070 0.075 0.0491945-46 0.716 0.731 0.683 0.229 0.221 0.259 0.054 0.047 0.0581947-48 0.647 0.643 0.669 0.302 0.305 0.269 0.052 0.052 0.0631949-50 0.628 0.604 0.666 0.314 0.328 0.259 0.058 0.067 0.0751951-52 0.676 0.684 0.661 0.266 0.266 0.261 0.058 0.049 0.078

Sources:HRS.RestrictedAccessDataforHRS-SScolumns.CPS.

Notes:TheHRS-SScolumnsrefertothesamplelinkedtotheSocialSecurityAdministrationearningsdata.ThenumberofobservationsfortheHRSsampleisabout500forthe1949-50and1951-52birthcohortsand1,000forthe1937-38and1939-40birthcohorts.Missingvalues(.)indicatelackofcoverageusingtheparticularHRScohorts.

AppendixTableA3:ComparingEducationfortheHRSandCPS:Women51to56Years

FractionCollegeEducation

andAbove FractionSomeCollegeFractionHighSchool

DiplomaFractionLessthanaHigh

SchoolDiplomaYearofBirth HRS-SS

FullHRS CPS HRS-SS

FullHRS CPS

1931-32 . . 0.121 . . 0.146 . . 0.450 . . 0.2821933-34 . . 0.127 . . 0.161 . . 0.454 . . 0.2581935-36 0.150 0.145 0.143 0.183 0.191 0.174 0.453 0.435 0.432 0.214 0.229 0.2511937-38 0.129 0.125 0.157 0.172 0.176 0.181 0.445 0.454 0.443 0.254 0.245 0.2191939-40 0.176 0.171 0.172 0.225 0.224 0.206 0.376 0.379 0.431 0.222 0.226 0.1911941-42 0.186 0.181 0.190 0.275 0.269 0.231 0.345 0.349 0.405 0.194 0.200 0.1741943-44 0.254 0.251 0.211 0.214 0.217 0.245 0.369 0.378 0.395 0.163 0.155 0.1481945-46 0.246 0.236 0.240 0.276 0.273 0.245 0.327 0.338 0.379 0.150 0.153 0.1371947-48 0.197 0.227 0.265 0.334 0.304 0.272 0.360 0.371 0.358 0.109 0.098 0.1051949-50 0.305 0.298 0.277 0.263 0.280 0.276 0.325 0.317 0.346 0.108 0.105 0.1011951-52 0.295 0.288 0.296 0.275 0.282 0.288 0.339 0.333 0.315 0.091 0.097 0.102

Sources:HRS.RestrictedAccessdataforHRS-SScolumns.CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1963to2014

Notes:TheHRS-SScolumnsrefertothesamplelinkedtotheSocialSecurityAdministrationearningsdata.

AppendixTableA4:Full-timeParticipationforWomenatAges59to63,byEducation:HRS Full-timeEmploymentatAges59to63Years

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.0340 0.0423 -0.0364* 0.0465 -0.0375* 0.0463 (0.0192) (0.0524) (0.0183) (0.0516) (0.0177) (0.0481) 1937-39 0.000660 0.0151 -0.0179 0.0205 -0.0102 0.0111 (0.0196) (0.0524) (0.0190) (0.0521) (0.0184) (0.0487) 1940-42 -0.00476 0.0349 -0.0343 0.0120 -0.0313 0.00402 (0.0209) (0.0523) (0.0202) (0.0518) (0.0198) (0.0481) 1943-45 -0.00972 0.0168 -0.0448 -0.0238 -0.0364 -0.0265 (0.0242) (0.0532) (0.0235) (0.0552) (0.0232) (0.0523) 1946-48 0.00969 0.0360 -0.0329 -0.0128 -0.0246 -0.00276 (0.0250) (0.0501) (0.0240) (0.0499) (0.0233) (0.0476) 1949-51 0.00881 0.120* -0.0347 0.0860 -0.0231 0.0853 (0.0285) (0.0521) (0.0279) (0.0506) (0.0273) (0.0479)Highschoolgrad. 0.107*** 0.0659*** 0.0276 (0.0151) (0.0149) (0.0149) Somecollege 0.177*** 0.124*** 0.0677*** (0.0187) (0.0184) (0.0183) MA 0.0810* 0.0706* 0.0612 (0.0336) (0.0332) (0.0322)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.190** 0.146* 0.118 (0.0670) (0.0677) (0.0640)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.240*** 0.139* 0.225*** 0.127* (0.0247) (0.0584) (0.0240) (0.0610)NeverinLF35-44 -0.00226 -0.152* -0.00113 -0.156* (0.0211) (0.0660) (0.0206) (0.0639)Currentlymarried -0.110** -0.258*** (0.0397) (0.0703)Divorced 0.0322 0.0736 (0.0414) (0.0746)Widow -0.0118 -0.0473 (0.0406) (0.0784)SpouseinLF 0.0688*** 0.158*** (0.0149) (0.0357)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes

Constant 0.177*** 0.653*** 0.114** 0.593*** 0.0776 0.505*** (0.0326) (0.0849) (0.0373) (0.0931) (0.0477) (0.120) N 12789 2642 12789 2642 12789 2642R-squared 0.043 0.052 0.084 0.079 0.125 0.134Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforcefull-timeand0otherwise.Awomanisinthelaborforcefull-timeifshereportedbeingemployedfor35ormorehoursperweek.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatesdegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001

AppendixTableA5:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAges56to58,byEducation:HRS LaborForceParticipationatAges56to58Years

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

NotCollegeGraduate

CollegeGraduate

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1937-39 0.00933 0.0128 -0.0184 0.0170 -0.0141 0.0120 (0.0238) (0.0552) (0.0225) (0.0531) (0.0214) (0.0509) 1940-42 0.0558* -0.0112 0.0120 -0.0311 0.0257 -0.0248 (0.0245) (0.0519) (0.0227) (0.0491) (0.0221) (0.0454) 1943-45 0.0170 0.0504 -0.0419 0.00718 -0.0334 0.00633 (0.0296) (0.0529) (0.0281) (0.0516) (0.0272) (0.0505) 1946-48 0.00282 0.0269 -0.0607* -0.0217 -0.0348 -0.0139 (0.0283) (0.0529) (0.0267) (0.0507) (0.0259) (0.0483) 1949-51 0.0357 0.0763 -0.0296 0.0324 0.00586 0.0309 (0.0301) (0.0486) (0.0289) (0.0482) (0.0274) (0.0460) 1952-54 0.00537 0.110* -0.0599 0.0516 -0.0219 0.0484 (0.0326) (0.0510) (0.0316) (0.0500) (0.0286) (0.0498)Highschoolgrad. 0.212*** 0.144*** 0.0719*** (0.0223) (0.0220) (0.0216) Somecollege 0.266*** 0.188*** 0.0999*** (0.0247) (0.0249) (0.0239) MA 0.0227 0.0137 0.0189 (0.0310) (0.0305) (0.0287)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.109* 0.0751 0.0517 (0.0456) (0.0454) (0.0446)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.302*** 0.0818 0.280*** 0.0430 (0.0315) (0.0565) (0.0297) (0.0674)NeverinLF35-44 -0.0711* -0.258** -0.0721* -0.275*** (0.0321) (0.0802) (0.0303) (0.0820)Currentlymarried -0.104* -0.276*** (0.0525) (0.0696)Divorced 0.0796 0.0120 (0.0531) (0.0457)Widow 0.0313 -0.0132 (0.0540) (0.0592)SpouseinLF 0.168*** 0.200*** (0.0207) (0.0578)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes

Constant 0.341*** 0.662*** 0.302*** 0.672*** 0.149* 0.612*** (0.0449) (0.123) (0.0484) (0.124) (0.0663) (0.124) N 7354 1649 7354 1649 7354 1649R-squared 0.049 0.022 0.123 0.060 0.199 0.130Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1934-36birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage56.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatedegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbytheHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001

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