Post on 11-Jul-2018
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Winter 2017-2018 Cold Weather Operations Wes Yeomans Vice President, Operations NYISO Management Committee January 31, 2018, Rensselaer, NY
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Cold Weather Conditions
Northeast Cold Snap: December 26 through until January 7 (13 days)
Albany, NY: Average temperature was 4.5 F between December 27 through January 2 with 7 consecutive days with minimums below 0 F
Syracuse, NY: Coldest start of January in over 100 years with January 1-7 average of 7.3 F New York City: Temperatures below 32 F for 14 days
New England: Temperatures below 20 degrees for 8 consecutive days
Coastal Blizzard: Entire east coast experienced a Coastal Blizzard which impacted NYC, Long Island, and New England on January 4-6 • NY: Mostly a snow, wind, and cold event
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Comparative to last Polar Vortex (January 2014)
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Source: US National Weather Service Albany NY
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Peak Loads
NY all-time Winter Electric Peak Load was 25,738 MW on January 7, 2014
NYISO Seasonal 50-50 Forecast was 24,365 MW
This Winter’s Actual Peak (so far) is 25,081 MW on Friday, January 5 • It was colder on January 1 than January 5 but January 1
was a holiday
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20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
2004 -05
2005 -06
2006 -07
2007 -08
2008 -09
2009 -10
2010 -11
2011 -12
2012 -13
2013 -14
2014 -15
2015 -16
2016 -17
2017 -18
Winter Peak Loads (MWs) - 2004-05 to 2017-18
Actual Load
25,54125,060
25,05725,021
24,673
24,074
24,654
23,901
24,658
25,738
24,648
23,317
24,164
25,081
Winter Peak Loads in MWs 2004 - 2018
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18% 20% 25% 29% 27% 26% 30% 29% 31% 32% 31%
36% 34%
19% 22%
17% 15% 16% 16%
15% 16% 17% 15% 15%
13% 15%
35% 32% 30%
30% 31% 32% 31% 29%
30% 29% 26% 26% 28%
2% 5% 5% 5% 5% 2% 7%
5% 6% 7% 6% 5%
5% 2% 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 5% 3% 3% 7% 5% 3% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 17% 18% 14% 13% 14% 12% 12% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MW
h (%
)
Total Actual Generation by Fuel Mix Across Day
Dual Fuel Natural Gas Nuclear Other Fossil Fuels Other Renewables Wind Hydro
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3,625 4,349 5,621 6,561 5,538 6,037 6,238 6,356 6,883 7,063 7,397 8,004 7,468
3,796 4,522
3,596 3,118
3,366 3,168 2,930 3,248 3,353 2,552 3,166 2,646 3,399
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
MW
h
HB 18
Total Actual Generation by Fuel Mix- During Peak Hours
Dual Fuel Natural Gas Nuclear Other Fossil Fuels Other Renewables Wind Hydro
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716
1,882 1,824 1,689
3,212
2,017 2,399
1,727 1,617 1,925
2,625 2,799 2,865 1,588
1,260 1,389 1,244
1,244
1,374
1,389
1,467 1,954 1,388
1,375 1,222 1,218
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
MW
Outages by Type - Over Peak Hours
Forced Scheduled
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Non Cold Related , 68%
Weather Related , 4%
Inability to get Fuel, [VALUE]
Emissions, 1%
Overall Distribution of Thermal and Hydro Forced Outages and Derates for 13 Days over Peak Hours
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79
44
304
904
665 828
799 547 805
850 1,072 1,091 128
106
106
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
MW
Thermal and Hydro Forced Outages and Forced Derates by Categories
In the December 21, 2017 Management Committee presentation,” Winter 2018 Capacity Assessment Winter
Preparedness” based on 60 months of history the projection was 3,373 MW of Hydro and Thermal Forced outages
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Other Regions Reliability & Markets
NYISO: Operations participated in conference calls with NPCC and gas pipelines
Hydro-Quebec : Recorded a new all-time peak of 39,710 MW
on January 6
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Transmission Transmission Infrastructure Performance - Excellent Transmission Owners rescheduled transmission maintenance
outages to time periods after the cold snap The two Ramapo PARs had positive impacts – full utilization
of 500 kV #5018 Central East was the primary binding constraints NYISO initiated a few NERC TLR-3 alerts
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Winter 2017-18 Observations (for the period 12/26/2017 through 01/07/2018)
Cold Snap 2017-2018 • Characterized by many days of gas prices exceeding oil prices
Natural gas prices (as indexed at Transco Zone 6 for NYC area) averaged $47.34/MMBTU during 13-day cold snap
• 1,374% increase over December 2017 (for the period 12/01/2017 thru 12/25/2017) average of $3.45/MMBTU
Load weighted electric LBMP $135.96/MWh during 13-day cold snap • 297% increase over December 2017 (for the period 12/01/2017 thru 12/25/2017) average of
$34.27/MWH
Electrical marginal energy prices did not increase as much as the gas prices primarily because the NYISO market systems selected lower-cost resources – primarily dual-fuel units capable of operating on lower cost oil
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Waiver Request to FERC for Cost Recovery On January 4, 2018, the NYISO filed for a waiver with FERC to
allow compensation for generator incremental energy costs and minimum generation costs in excess of $1000/MWh • The requested waiver period was January 6 to February 28
FERC granted the waiver request on January 12, 2018 As of January 24, 2018 the NYISO has not received any such cost
recovery requests
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Gas System
The interstate and gas LDC pipelines all remained in-service Gas Pipelines and Gas LDCs issued many of the following:
• Gas Alerts • Daily OFOs (Operational Flow Orders) • Hourly OFOs • Interruption of Transportation Services (Interruptible Gas Customers will not be able to get Gas)
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Operations
Ad Hoc Fuel Surveys No Need for Demand Response State Agencies Communications
• NY Governor press release on January 4, 2018 regarding coastal Blizzard • NYISO participation in a few NY State Agency conference calls per our State Agency Winter
Communication Protocol
NYISO Press WebEx • NYISO hosted a “Winter Operations Media Briefing” on January 4, 2018
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Fuel Monitoring
Weekly Surveys Ad Hoc Surveys Reach-out to a few for more specific information Cooperation and Accuracy of the Web Based Fuel Survey
Application was excellent
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Renewable Generator Performance
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Renewable Generator Performance
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