Post on 04-Feb-2018
STATE OF WISCONSIN
DETI-17957-WAK-P (R. 3/2018)
2017 ECONOMIC ANDWORKFORCE PROFILE
Waukesha County
Percentage of Total Popula on, Ages 65 and Older
1
Wisconsin now has more people employed and more private sector jobs than at any me in its history. As of this wri ng, the state added 56,100 jobs during 2016 and 2017 . Employment increased in almost all industry sectors, with prominent gains in construc on, manufacturing, and healthcare.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is near lows not seen in a genera on, decreasing from 4.3 percent in January 2016 to 3.2 percent in December 2017, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Wisconsin faces a worker quan ty challenge. The number of re ring Baby Boomers nearly match the influx of new workers, resul ng in a slow growing workforce and placing constraints on the ability by employers across all industries to hire talent. Many businesses report that the lack of available workers has hindered expansion and, in some cases, even curtailed their ability to meet current product orders.
The blue‐line, orange‐line graph to the right illustrates the situa on in Wisconsin and other upper‐Midwest states. While Wisconsin's popula‐
on will con nue to grow over the next twenty years, the workforce faces serious constraints.
The labor force par cipa on rate (LFPR), defined as the labor force (sum of employed and unemployed) divided by the total popula on ages 16 and older, measures the popula‐
on's engagement in the workforce and serves as an indicator in deter‐mining how Wisconsin's workforce will be constrained.
The overall LFPR peaked in the late 1990s and has been trending lower ever since. The LFPR of peaks across the 30‐55 age cohort at over ninety percent and decreases rapidly into the single digits by age seventy. Baby Boomers have and con nue to exit with respect to their LFPR. The mass of Baby Boomers has moved into the work lifecycle stage of declining
LFPRs, with the tail end of the cohort turning 55 in 2019.
A recent development is the change in the labor force par cipa on rate trend. The LFPR of older workers (those aged 55 years and older) has turned upwards, resul ng in fla en‐ing of the overall LFPR. More boom‐ers are staying in the workforce longer, which may portend higher workforce growth over the coming years. Due to the size of the Baby Boomer cohort and the sensi vity of the LFPR to workforce growth rates, a rela vely small change in the LFPR of older workers would significantly boost the number in the workforce.
Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
Source: Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
2
Popula on and Demographics
The chart above lists Waukesha County’s ten largest municipali es and compares popula on growth since 2010
at the municipal, county, state, and na onal level. Popula on growth in Wisconsin and Waukesha County was
slow as compared to the United States, although Waukesha's growth rate was somewhat higher than the
state’s. County growth of 6,558 residents or 1.7 percent was distributed differently among municipali es. The
City of Pewaukee, with growth of 7.2 percent during the period, was the fastest growing municipality listed.
The Village of Menomonee Falls grew at half the rate of Pewaukee, but due its larger size, added the most resi‐
dents.
The graph to the right displays the components of
popula on growth in Waukesha County, the state,
and the na on. The components include migra on,
which is movement of residents into and out of the
area, and natural increases and decreases resul ng
from births and deaths.
Unlike Wisconsin, which lost more people to migra‐
on than it gained, net migra on in Waukesha
County was posi ve.
Natural increases in popula on are closely correlat‐
ed with age demographics. Strong natural increases
generally occur in younger popula ons, which have
higher fer lity and birth rates and lower death
rates. At 42.8 years, the median age of Waukesha
County residents was older than the state median of
Source: Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administra on
Source: Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administra on
Components of Popula on Change
3
Labor Force Dynamics
39.0 and the
county’s rate of
natural increase of 0.9 percent was correspondingly lower.
The graph above tracks the monthly unemployment rate in Waukesha County since 2000 and compares it to
state and na onal rates during the same me. Since this unemployment data has not been seasonally adjusted,
or smoothed, the graph also shows seasonal employment varia ons within each year. The seasonality of the
county’s labor market is moderate and typical, with normal peaks of unemployment early in the year and again
in summer as students enter the
job market in search of work, and
normal troughs late in the year.
A er peaking in early 2010, rates
fell steadily as the economy recov‐
ered from the Great Recession.
Waukesha County’s average annu‐
al unemployment rate in 2016 was
3.6 percent, substan ally lower
than the na onal rate of 4.9 per‐
cent and state rate of 4.1 percent.
The unemployment rate repre‐
sents the por on of an area’s la‐
bor force that is unemployed. The
chart to the le displays those
components as annual averages
Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
4
Industry Employment and Wages
and tracks labor force growth over me. Between 2000 and 2016, Waukesha County's labor force grew by 13,678
labor force par cipants or 6.5 percent, which was higher than 4.9 percent state average labor force growth dur‐
ing the same period.
The employment and wage distribu on graph above displays the economic impact of the various industry sectors
in Waukesha County from both an employment and payroll perspec ve. Some data has been suppressed for con‐
fiden ality. Waukesha County’s job base grew by 3,292 jobs or 1.4 percent during 2016. Average annual
statewide job growth was also 1.4 percent in 2016. Strongest employment growth occurred in professional and
business services, with the management subsector accoun ng for 73 percent of the 948 job gains in the industry.
Trade, transporta on, and
u li es and educa on and
health services also saw sub‐
stan al employment growth,
with the retail trade and
health care subsectors com‐
prising most of the growth in
the two sectors. Manufactur‐
ing lost the most jobs in 2016
but remains Waukesha’s larg‐
est sector in terms of payroll
and second largest in terms of
jobs.
The table to the le shows
5
Employment Projec ons
annual average wage by industry in Waukesha County, compares those wages to the statewide average, and dis‐
plays the county’s one‐year change in each of the sectors. Waukesha’s average annual wage of $53,100 is the
highest among Wisconsin’s 72 coun es. It is 15.4 percent higher than the state average and increased at a slightly
faster rate, 1.6 percent in Waukesha County compared to 1.4 percent in Wisconsin. Above average wages were
paid in all sectors except leisure and hospitality and public administra on.
The table above presents ten‐year regional employment projec ons by industry sector for the W‐O‐W Workforce
Development Area, which is comprised of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington coun es. The change in the num‐
ber of jobs from 2014 to 2024 represents new jobs expected to be created during the period.
In 2014, Waukesha had the largest share of the region’s employment, with 71 percent of the region’s jobs. Ozau‐
kee and Washington coun es had 13 and 16 percent, respec vely. Ten‐year regional employment is projected to
exceed projected statewide job growth of six percent. Jobs in the three‐county area are expected to increase sev‐
en percent between 2014 and 2024, with average annual growth of 0.7 percent or 2,753 jobs per year. Employ‐
ment in the area exceeded projec ons, growing by 5,550 new jobs or 1.7 percent during 2016.
The professional and business services sector, which provides professional, technical, and administra ve services
to businesses, and educa on and health services sector and are projected to add the most jobs between 2014
and 2024. Within the larger educa on and health services sector, health services employment is expected to
grow faster than educa onal services. This is due, in part, to demographic trends, with the elderly por on of the
popula on expanding while the school‐age por on is shrinking. Large investments in new schools, classrooms,
and teaching jobs are not an cipated, however this does not mean we won’t need many new teachers.
6
Employment Projec ons
To get a be er idea of the types of jobs included in employment projec ons, we can also look at expected job
growth by occupa on. The table above displays projected total job openings through 2024, which includes both
openings resul ng from crea on of new jobs (Change column) and replacement openings in previously created
jobs that are an cipated to occur as incumbent workers leave those posi ons, necessita ng the hiring of new
workers to replace them (Replacement Openings column). Large numbers of Baby Boomers are expected to re‐
re within the next few years, which is why projected replacement openings exceed the number of openings
expected to occur because of job growth. This phenomenon is occurring not only in the W‐O‐W region, but
throughout the state economy as well. Large numbers of annual job openings are projected in sales and related,
food prepara on and serving, and office and administra ve support, which is expected to have the most job
openings despite few new projected jobs in the occupa on. And many replacement openings are projected in
other occupa ons that are not expected to grow significantly, such as produc on and educa on, training and
library. This is especially common in occupa ons with older workforces and large numbers of an cipated re re‐
ments during the projec on period, as well as low‐wage occupa ons which tend to have younger workforces
but higher rates of employee turnover.
Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, September 2015
7
The workforce age distribu on within each of W‐O‐W Workforce Development Area’s major industries displayed
above presents a detailed view of the area's workforce age demographics. Considerable differences in age com‐
posi on among industry sectors are evident. Industries which commonly base pay on seniority, such as manufac‐
turing and public administra on, employ the oldest workers. Other industries like construc on or leisure and hos‐
pitality typically employ the youngest workers because many of their jobs are physically demanding and/or sea‐
sonal or part me in nature, making them either unsuitable or unappealing to older workers.
The highest rates of workforce par cipa on are seen among those who are of prime working age, which is gener‐
ally considered to be between 25 and 54 years. Sixty‐two percent of the area’s workers in all industries are of
prime working age, with the 45‐54 age group accoun ng for 22 percent of the workforce, the largest share. Al‐
most one quarter (23 percent) of area workers in all sectors are older than age 54. Public administra on has the
highest por on of workers age 55 and older (31 percent), but it is a rela vely small sector employing only three
percent of the area’s workforce. In manufacturing, the second largest employment sector behind Trade, Trans‐
porta on and U li es, 27 percent of workers are age 55 and older. This explains, in part, why 83% of projected
Produc on occupa on openings discussed on the previous page are to replace exi ng workers rather than to fill
new jobs. The large number of older workers across all industries is concerning because when they inevitably re‐
re, employers may encounter difficulty finding younger workers with the skills and experience necessary to re‐
place them.
For More Informa on:
Wandy Miezio
Regional Economist — WOW WDA
Phone: (262) 695‐7767 Email: wandy.miezio@dwd.wisconsin.gov