Virus Propagation Modeling

Chenxi Wang, Christos Faloutsos

Yang Wang, Deepayan Chakrabarti

chenxi@cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University

Center for Computer and Communications Security

Internet Viruses and Worms

• Computer viruses/worms are a prevalent threat – SQL Slammer worm infected 90%+ of the vulnerable

hosts within the first 10 minutes

• Existing defenses are not adequate– Largely ad hoc– Require human intervention

• Analytic models can help

Epidemiological Modeling

• Previous models – Homogeneous

– BA Power-law graphs

• Epidemic threshold

out diesinfection . . . . . . if

endemic . . . . . . ratedeath

ratebirth if

Epidemiological Modeling

• Previous predictions are not general

• Homogeneous

1

2k

k

• Power law graphs

Epidemiological Modeling Our threshold prediction

1

1

1, largest eigenvalue

Captured in one

parameter Works for arbitrary graphs! [WCWF03]