UNCLASSIFIED

Eighth Annual State of Modeling & SimulationEighth Annual State of Modeling & SimulationBriefing to Government and IndustryBriefing to Government and Industry

USSTRATCOMUSSTRATCOMMODELING & SIMULATIONMODELING & SIMULATION

OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

AGENDA

• USSTRATCOM mission and roles

• M&S Components

• M&S Current Technologies

• M&S Future Directions

THE MISSION OFSTRATEGIC COMMAND

Deter major military attack on theUnited States and its allies; and if

deterrence fails, employ forces

UNITED STATES STRATEGICCOMMAND

A War Preventer

l Deter major military attack, and ifdeterrence fails, employ forces

A Planner

l Integrate strategic deterrence policiesand requirements, thereby linkingplanning and execution. Provideplanning support to regional CINCs

An Advocate

l Primary voice for strategic forcestructure, modernization, and armscontrol implications

COMMAND RELATIONSHIPSWARTIME FORCES

COMMAND RELATIONSHIPSWARTIME FORCES

NCA

STRATCOM

TF LANT(COMSUBLANT)

ATLANTICFLEET

TF PAC(COMSUBPAC)

PACIFICFLEET

TF ABN COMM(STRATCOMM WG1)

TF ICBM(20TH AIR FORCE)

AF SPACECOMMAND

TF MED(SUB GROUP 8)

AIR MOBILITYCOMMAND

TF TANKERS(15TH AIR FORCE)

TF BOMBERS(8TH AIR FORCE)

TF RECCE(12TH AIR FORCE)

AIR COMBATCOMMAND

STRATEGIC COMMAND FORCESWARTIME POSTURE

(NOMINAL)

STRATEGIC COMMAND FORCESWARTIME POSTURE

(NOMINAL)

>200

AFANGAFRAF/ANGAF/AFRANG/AFR

TANKERs

200

200

150

5 55

SSBNs

~8 ~10

ICBM

COMMANDCONTROL

NMCC

ANMCC

NAOC

RECCE

∼ 10

∼ 5

~10

BOMBERs

∼ 20

21

∼ 56

??Arms ControlArms Control

Strategic Force ModernizationStrategic Force Modernization

Turmoil in FSUTurmoil in FSU

WMD Counter ProliferationWMD Counter ProliferationNuclear Stockpile

StewardshipNuclear Stockpile

Stewardship

Strategic DeterrenceStrategic Deterrence

Hard and Deeply BuriedTarget Proliferation

Hard and Deeply BuriedTarget Proliferation

POST COLD WARCHALLENGES

POST COLD WARCHALLENGES

StrategicSystemsStrategicSystems

WMD /Counterproliferation

WMD /Counterproliferation

Consequencesof ExecutionConsequencesof Execution

U. S. STRATEGIC COMMANDM & S MAJOR COMPONENTSU. S. STRATEGIC COMMANDM & S MAJOR COMPONENTS

CURRENT TECHNOLOGIESCURRENT TECHNOLOGIES

For Distributed Collaborative Planning/Analysis (DCP/A):

• Theater Integrated Planning System (TIPS)

• Common Operational Modeling,

Planning, and Simulation

Strategy (COMPASS)

• Collaborative Contingency

Targeting (CCT)

CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)

CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)

For Counterproliferation/Proliferation Path/NodalAnalysis:

• Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS)

CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)

CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)

For weapon lethality/target vulnerability analysis:• Air Force Research Lab’s Modular Effectiveness Vulnerability

Assessment (MEVA) - a deliberate planning tool

• Defense Threat Reduction

Agency’s Munitions Effects

Assessment (MEA) - a crisis

action planning tool

• Probability of Damage

Calculator (PDCALC)

CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)

CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)

For Consequence Analysis:• Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability & Fallout Assessment

System/Civilian Vulnerability Indicator Code (HPAC &FAS/CIVIC)

– Nuclear & conventional

weapons on NBC facilities

– Atmospheric transport

and dispersion

– Casualty prediction

Anthrax Dispersion in HPACAnthrax Dispersion in HPAC

MISSION ENVIRONMENTMISSION ENVIRONMENT

DII COEDII COECOMPLIANCECOMPLIANCE

DCP/ADCP/A

V&VV&V

VIRTUAL VIRTUAL COMMANDCOMMAND

CENTERCENTER

COMMONCOMMONDATADATA MULTILEVELMULTILEVEL

SECURITYSECURITY

FUTURE DIRECTIONSFUTURE DIRECTIONSIncreased fidelity in modeling:• Atmospheric transport & dispersion

– More accurate incorporation of meteorology

• Relocatable targets

• Underground targets in hardened geologies

• Population distribution

New Areas:• Strategic Exercise Simulation

• Information operations analysis

• Atmospheric transport and dispersion in urban terrain

• Secondary Nuclear Effects