Understanding Human Decision-Making and Behavior during Tornado Warning Events

Nicholas HumphreyDepartment of Interdisciplinary Studies

South Dakota State University

AcknowledgementsDr. Katherine Erdman-Becker,

Interdisciplinary Studies, SDSUDr. Michael Wimberly, GIS Center of

Excellence, SDSUDr. Mark Anderson, Earth and Atmospheric

Sciences, UNLDr. Katherine Sherman-Morris, Geosciences,

Mississippi State UniversityKim Klockow, PhD candidate, Geography, OU Support from family and friends!

Defining the Problem

Photo by Wikipedia user Ks0Stm

Defining the ProblemThe National Weather Service issues tornado

warnings to provide urgent information and help people protect themselves from a dangerous meteorological hazard.

However, evidence suggests that many do not respond properly to warnings with protective action.

Evidence gathered via National Weather Service post-event assessments as well as other scientific survey/interview research.

Tuscaloosa, AL Tornado (2011)

Photo by Mike Wilhelm

Joplin, MO Tornado (2011)

Photo by David Eulitt

Call-to-ActionCall-t0-Action Statement:

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOUCANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF ASTURDY BUILDING NOW.

Tornado Warning ComplianceThe behavior by which an individual takes

protective action in response to a tornado warning can be referred to as compliance.

Compliance can be further defined by the terms hard, soft, and non-compliance.

Hard Compliance: “Instant” intent to take action.

Soft Compliance: Delayed intent until condition is met.

Non-Compliance: No intent to take action.

Research QuestionsWhy do people behave the way they do

during tornado warnings? How can compliance with tornado warning

call-to-action statements for protective action be improved?

Sub-Disciplines Weather Forecasting MeteorologyHazard GeographyCognitive PsychologySocial Psychology

MethodologyInterdisciplinary Research Process

Disciplinary Literature ReviewIdentifying ConflictsFinding common ground through integration

techniques

Literature Review – Key TheoriesRisk Communication TheoryDifferentiation and Consolidation TheorySignal Detection TheoryTheory of Planned BehaviorSocial Exchange Theory

Conflict between TheoriesRisk Communication Theory explains the

communication process from the reception of the warning to the response. The process of how one actually believes, personalizes and responds are not explained.

Psychological theories provide variables for decision-making and behavior. The theories do not deal with the communication process leading to the response to warnings.

Integration Strategy and Resultant Interdisciplinary Theory

Theory ExtensionThe extension in the scope of a disciplinary

theory to encompass the variables of other disciplinary theories.

Extended Risk Communication TheoryIntegrates Risk Communication Theory and the

psychological theories of decision-making and behavior.

ImplicationsIndividuals go through circular decision-

making processes by which they ultimately respond to a tornado warning.

Process may take time and may be accompanied by criteria by which must be met before responding. Explains why most individuals are “soft compliant”.

Tornado warnings are treated as individual phenomenon to people as opposed to geographical phenomeon.

Recommendations for Meteorologists/Emergency Managers

When a tornado warning is issued, provide as much impact-based information as possible.

Change attitudes toward taking protective action and the value of such action.

Meteorologists must understand they are not the only source of influence within the minds of people who are making decisions during tornado warnings.

Questions?