Post on 06-Sep-2018
- 1 -
25 January, 2008
Dr. Dr. IjazIjaz Shafi GilaniShafi GilaniChairman Gallup PakistanChairman Gallup Pakistan
UNDERSTANDINGUNDERSTANDINGELECTIONSELECTIONS
IN PAKISTANIN PAKISTAN
- 2 -
11Prospects forProspects for
Elections 2008Elections 2008
22Electoral Electoral BehaviourBehaviour and and the History of Riggingthe History of Rigging
- 3 -
ELECTIONS 2008ELECTIONS 2008
PAKISTANPAKISTAN’’S S 88thth NATIONAL ELECTIONSNATIONAL ELECTIONSO Yahya
1970O Bangladesh
O PNA
O Zia ul Haq
O IJI/Nawaz
Tenure 1
Tenure 2
Tenure 2
O Party less
O Benazir Tenure 1
O Nawaz
O Benazir
O Nawaz
O Pervez Musharraf
?2008
2000
1997
1993
1990
1988
1985
O Bhutto1977
Past History
- 4 -
3 3 DECISIVE FACTORSDECISIVE FACTORS
Geography or TurfElectoral Arenas
Behaviour PatternsVoting Patterns
System EffectsRules of the Electoral
Game
- 5 -
GEOGRAPHY OR TURFGEOGRAPHY OR TURF
NA SEATS
272+ ~~
Population: 165 Million
Registered Voters: ~ 80 Million
PAKISTANContinued…
- 6 -
Continued……… GEOGRAPHY OR TURFGEOGRAPHY OR TURF
Seats:5
Seats:6
Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:5
Seats:4
Seats:3
Seats:4
Seats:4Seats:6
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:5
Seats:6 Seats:11
Seats:3
Seats:2 Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:7
Seats:5
Seats:5Seats:4
Seats:13
Seats:7
Seats:4
Seats:5Seats:3
Seats:7Seats:3
Seats:2
Seats:5
Seats:6
Seats:2
Seats:3Seats:5
Seats:4
Seats:3Seats:4
Seats:4
Seats:6Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2Seats:5
Seats:6 Seats:11Seats:3
Seats:2 Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:7
Seats:5
Seats:5Seats:4
Seats:13
Seats:7
Seats:4Seats:5
Seats:3
Seats:7Seats:3
Seats:2
PUNJAB 150Southern Punjab 44Bahawalpur 5Multan 6Rahimyar Khan 6Muzaffargarh 5Vehari 4Khanewal 4Bahawalnagar 4Dera Ghazi Khan 3Rajan Pur 2Lodhran 2Pakpattan 3Central Punjab 57Lahore 13Gujranwala 7Sheikhupura 7Sialkot 5Kasur 5Okara 5Gujrat 4Sahiwal 4Narowal 3Mandi Bahauddin 2Hafizabad 2Western Punjab 33Mianwali 2Khushab 2Bhakkar 2Sargodha 5Layyah 2Jhang 6Faisalabad 11Toba Tek Singh 3Northern Punjab 16Rawalpindi 7Islamabad 2Attock 3Jhelum 2Chakwal 2
NA SEATS
150+ ~~ PUNJABPUNJAB Population: 55%55% Continued…
- 7 -
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:4
Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:3
Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:6
Seats:2Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:20
SINDH 61
Karachi City 20Interior Sindh 41Sakkur 2Ghotki 2Khairpur 3Nawabshah 2Naushero Feroz 2Larkana 4Shikarpur 2Jacobabad 3Mirpur Khas 3Tharparkar 2Sanghar 3Hyderabad 6Badin 2Thatha 2Dadu 3
NA SEATS
61+ ~~ SINDHSINDH Population: 25%25% Continued…
Continued……… GEOGRAPHY OR TURFGEOGRAPHY OR TURF
Sindh
- 8 -
Seats:4
Seats:2
Seats:2Seats:3
Seats:2
Seats:1Seats:1
Seats:1Seats:2
Seats:1Seats:2
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:2
Seats:1 Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:2
Seats:1
Seats:1
NWFP 35
Peshawar (Valley Region) 13Peshawar 4Nowshera 2Charsadda 2Mardan 3Swabi 2
Southern NWFP 7Kohat 1Karak 1Bannu 1Hangu 1Lakki Marwat 1D. I. Khan 2
Malakand 8Malakand 1Shangla 1Swat 2Upper Dir 1Lower Dir 1Chitral 1Buner 1
Hazara Division 7Abbottabad 2Mansehra 2Haripur 1Kohistan 1Batagram 1
Continued……… GEOGRAPHY OR TURFGEOGRAPHY OR TURF
NA SEATS
35+ ~~ NWFPNWFP Population: 15%15% Continued…
- 9 -
Calculus of Electoral Politics in Pakistan2007
Seats:2
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
BALUCHISTAN 14
Quetta Sub Region 6Quetta 1Quetta, Chagi, Matsang 1Pishin, Ziarat 1Loralai 1Zhob, Killa Saifullah 1Killa Abdullah 1
Kalat Mekran Sub Region 8Kohlu, Sibi, Dera Bugti 1Nasirabad 1Kachhi 1Kalat, Mastung 1Khuzdar 1Awaran, Lasbela 1Panjgur, Kharan 1Kech, Gwadar 1
Continued……… GEOGRAPHY OR TURFGEOGRAPHY OR TURF
NA SEATS
14+ ~~ BALOCHISTANBALOCHISTAN Population: 5%5% Continued…
- 10 -
Significant PointsSignificant Points
1- Provinces are vastly different in Size
2- Each Province has its unique DIVERSITY in Voting Behaviour
Sindh: Urban-RuralBalochistan: Pashtun-BalochNWFP: Peshawar Valley
Hazara DivisionSouthern DivisionsMalakand Division
PUNJAB: NorthCentralSouthWest Continued…
- 12 -
Vote Bank
All Pakistan Voting Pattern
Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002
% of votes 23% 30% 37% 40% 45% 39%No. of seats 18 54 106 72 134 99*% of votes 39% 38% 37% 38% 21% 26%No. of seats 81 93 44 86 18 61% of votes 38% 30% 26% 22% 32% 35%No. of seats 39 57 57 58 52 109**
PML and PML-led AlliancesPPP and PPP-led Alliances
Others
- 13 -
Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002
% of votes 45% 47% 42% 51% 32% 37%No. of seats 18 31 24 33 18 27 % of votes 25% 27% 18% 15%No. of seats 13 15 12 13 % of votes 55% 28% 31% 48% 50% 48%No. of seats 9 2 7 13 16 21
Boycott
PPP and PPP-led Alliances
MQM NA
Others
Sindh Voting Pattern
Continued….. Vote Bank
Continued…
- 14 -
Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002
% of votes 27% 18% 18% 41% 13% 18%No. of seats 2 3 2 10 2 3 % of votes 56% 65% 48% 38%No. of seats 13 14 12 13 % of votes 73%* 26% 17% 59% 26% 44%No. of seats 5 0 0 8 2 6
BoycottMQM
Others
NA
PPP and PPP-led Alliances
Urban Sindh Voting Pattern
Continued….. Vote Bank
Continued…
- 15 -
Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002
% of votes 51% 68% 58% 57% 42% 45%No. of seats 16 28 22 25 16 24 % of votes 3% 3% 0% 5%No. of seats 0 1 0 0 % of votes 49%* 29% 40% 43% 58% 49%No. of seats 4 0 7 3 12 15
BoycottNA
PPP and PPP-led Alliances
MQM
Others
Interior Sindh Voting Pattern
Continued….. Vote Bank
Continued…
- 16 -
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:4
Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:3
Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:6
Seats:2Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:20
SINDH 61
Karachi City 20Interior Sindh 41Sakkur 2Ghotki 2Khairpur 3Nawabshah 2Naushero Feroz 2Larkana 4Shikarpur 2Jacobabad 3Mirpur Khas 3Tharparkar 2Sanghar 3Hyderabad 6Badin 2Thatha 2Dadu 3
NA SEATS
61+ ~~ SINDHSINDH Population: 25%25% Continued…
Sindh
Continued….. Vote Bank
- 17 -
Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002
% of votes 22% 21% 12% 7% NA 17%No. of seats 0 2 2 0 3 3*% of votes 2% 7% 15% 18% NA 10%No. of seats 0 1 2 1 0 0% of votes 21% 17% 19% 10% NA 19%No. of seats 1 4 2 2 2 6% of votes 45% 19% 29% 22% NA 33%No. of seats 3 2 3 4 2 3% of votes 10% 35% 25% 42% NA 22%No. of seats 0 2 2 4 1 2
Others
PML and PML-led AlliancesPPP and PPP-led AlliancesReligious Parties (Primarily JUI)Regional Parties (Balochistan
Balochistan Voting PatternContinued….. Vote Bank
Continued…
- 18 -
Seats:2
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
BALUCHISTAN 14
Quetta Sub Region 6Quetta 1Quetta, Chagi, Matsang 1Pishin, Ziarat 1Loralai 1Zhob, Killa Saifullah 1Killa Abdullah 1
Kalat Mekran Sub Region 8Kohlu, Sibi, Dera Bugti 1Nasirabad 1Kachhi 1Kalat, Mastung 1Khuzdar 1Awaran, Lasbela 1Panjgur, Kharan 1Kech, Gwadar 1
NA SEATS
14+ ~~ BALOCHISTANBALOCHISTAN Population: 5%5% Continued…
Continued….. Vote Bank
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Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002
% of votes 14% 23% 23% 16% 10% 12%No. of seats 1 8 5 5 0 2*% of votes 27% 27% 24% 32% 37% 18%No. of seats 7 8 8 10 15 4**
% of votes 33% JUI-F: 11%
JUI-F: 20 %
PIF: 11% MDM: 2% IJM: 11%
JUI-F: 8% JI
Boycott
MMA: 45%
No. of seats 6 4JUI-F
(4)
PIF (2) MDM (1) IJM (2)
0MMA (29)
% of votes 19% 18% 15% 15% 19% 9%No. of seats 3 2 6 3 9 0% of votes 7% 21% 18% 13% 26% 16%No. of seats 8 3 3 2 1 12
PPP and PPP-led AlliancesPML and PML-led Alliances
ANP***
Religious Parties (Primarily JUI, JI and MMA in 2002)
Others
NWFP Voting PatternContinued….. Vote Bank
Continued…
- 20 -
Seats:4
Seats:2
Seats:2Seats:3
Seats:2
Seats:1Seats:1
Seats:1Seats:2
Seats:1Seats:2
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:2
Seats:1 Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:1
Seats:2
Seats:1
Seats:1
NWFP 35
Peshawar (Valley Region) 13Peshawar 4Nowshera 2Charsadda 2Mardan 3Swabi 2
Southern NWFP 7Kohat 1Karak 1Bannu 1Hangu 1Lakki Marwat 1D. I. Khan 2
Malakand 8Malakand 1Shangla 1Swat 2Upper Dir 1Lower Dir 1Chitral 1Buner 1
Hazara Division 7Abbottabad 2Mansehra 2Haripur 1Kohistan 1Batagram 1
NA SEATS
35+ ~~ NWFPNWFP Population: 15%15% Continued…
Continued….. Vote Bank
- 21 -
Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002
% of votes 23% 38% 49% 45% 59% 52%No. of seats 10 45 92 52 107 85*% of votes 42% 40% 39% 39% 22% 27%No. of seats 62 53 14 47 0 33% of votes 35% 22% 12% 16% 19% 13%No. of seats 10 17 9 13 7 20
PML and PML-led AlliancesPPP and PPP-led Alliances
Others
Punjab Voting Pattern
Continued….. Vote Bank
Continued…
- 22 -
Seats:5
Seats:6
Seats:2
Seats:3
Seats:5
Seats:4
Seats:3
Seats:4
Seats:4Seats:6
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:5
Seats:6 Seats:11
Seats:3
Seats:2 Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:7
Seats:5
Seats:5Seats:4
Seats:13
Seats:7
Seats:4
Seats:5Seats:3
Seats:7Seats:3
Seats:2
Seats:5
Seats:6
Seats:2
Seats:3Seats:5
Seats:4
Seats:3Seats:4
Seats:4
Seats:6Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2Seats:5
Seats:6 Seats:11Seats:3
Seats:2 Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:2
Seats:7
Seats:5
Seats:5Seats:4
Seats:13
Seats:7
Seats:4Seats:5
Seats:3
Seats:7Seats:3
Seats:2
PUNJAB 150Southern Punjab 44Bahawalpur 5Multan 6Rahimyar Khan 6Muzaffargarh 5Vehari 4Khanewal 4Bahawalnagar 4Dera Ghazi Khan 3Rajan Pur 2Lodhran 2Pakpattan 3Central Punjab 57Lahore 13Gujranwala 7Sheikhupura 7Sialkot 5Kasur 5Okara 5Gujrat 4Sahiwal 4Narowal 3Mandi Bahauddin 2Hafizabad 2Western Punjab 33Mianwali 2Khushab 2Bhakkar 2Sargodha 5Layyah 2Jhang 6Faisalabad 11Toba Tek Singh 3Northern Punjab 16Rawalpindi 7Islamabad 2Attock 3Jhelum 2Chakwal 2
NA SEATS
150+ ~~ PUNJABPUNJAB Population: 55%55% Continued…
Continued….. Vote Bank
- 23 -
PunjabElectoral Performance of Muslim League(s)
(1970-2002)
23 %
38 %
49 %45 %
59 %
52 %
10 (seats out of 82)
45 (seats out
of 115)
92(seats out of 115)
52(seats out
of 112)
107(seats out of 114)
85(seats out
of 149)
5101520253035404550556065707580859095
100105110
1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002Elections
Per
cent
age
of v
otes
/ N
umbe
r of
NA
sea
ts
5101520253035404550556065707580859095100105110
% of votes No. of seats
The Decisive Contest in Punjab
- 24 -
PunjabElectoral Performance of Pakistan People's Party
(1970-2002)
27%22 %
39 %39 %40 %42 %
0(seats out
of 114)
47 (seats out of 112)
14(seats out of 115)
53 (seats out of 115)
62 (seats out of 82)
33 (seats out
of 149)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002Elections
Per
cent
age
of v
otes
/ N
umbe
r of N
Ase
ats
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
% of votes No. of seats
The Decisive Contest in Punjab
- 25 -
P u n ja bE le c to ra l P e rfo rm a n c e o f P a k i s ta n P e o p l e 's P a r ty
(1 9 7 0 -2 0 0 2 )
2 7 %2 2 %
3 9 %3 9 %4 0 %4 2 %
0( s e a ts o u t
o f 1 1 4 )
4 7 ( s e a ts o u t o f 1 1 2 )
1 4( s e a ts o u t o f 1 1 5 )
5 3 ( s e a ts o u t o f 1 1 5 )
6 2 ( s e a ts o u t o f 8 2 )
3 3 ( s e a ts o u t
o f 1 4 9 )
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
5 5
6 0
6 5
1 9 7 0 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 2E le c tio n s
Per
cent
age
of v
otes
/ N
umbe
r of N
A
seat
s
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
5 5
6 0
6 5
% o f vo te s N o . o f s e a ts
P u n ja bE l e c to ra l P e r fo rm a n c e o f M u s l i m L e a g u e (s )
(1 9 7 0 -2 0 0 2 )
2 3 %
3 8 %
4 9 %4 5 %
5 9 %
5 2 %
1 0 ( s e a ts o u t o f 8 2 )
4 5 ( s e a ts o u t
o f 1 1 5 )
9 2( s e a ts o u t o f 1 1 5 )
5 2( s e a ts o u t
o f 1 1 2 )
1 0 7( s e a ts o u t
o f 1 1 4 )
8 5( s e a ts o u t
o f 1 4 9 )
51 01 52 02 53 03 54 04 55 05 56 06 57 07 58 08 59 09 5
1 0 01 0 51 1 0
1 9 7 0 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 2E le c t io n s
Per
cent
age
of v
otes
/ N
umbe
r of
NA
sea
ts
51 01 52 02 53 03 54 04 55 05 56 06 57 07 58 08 59 09 51 0 01 0 51 1 0
% o f v o te s N o . o f s e a ts
- 26 -
All Pakistan winner inNational AssemblyPPP PPP ahead by 19% PPP ahead by 52 seats(Winner gets 37% vote nationally)
(42:23%) (62:10*) seats for Ml(s)
PPP PPP ahead by 2% PPP ahead by 8 seats(Winner gets 39% vote nationally)
(40:38%) (53:45) seats
ML ML ahead by 10% ML ahead by 78 seats(Winner gets 37% vote nationally)
(49:39%) (92:14) seats
PPP ML ahead by 6% ML ahead by 5 seats (Winner gets 38% vote nationally)
(45:39%) (52:47) seats
ML ML ahead by 37% ML ahead by 107 seats(Winner gets 46% vote nationally)
(59:22%) (107:zero) seats
No clear winner ML(s) ahead by 24% ML(s) ahead by 48 seatsPPP (26%), PML-Q (24%), PML-N (11 %)
PML(Q) (35%), PML(N) (16%), PPP (27%)
PML(Q) (67), PML(N) (16); PPP (34) seats
National Assembly Elections
Voting Ratio: ML and PPP in Punjab
Edge of National Assembly Seats in Punjab
1970
2002
1988
1990
1993
1997
The Dramatic 5% Swing Factor in Punjab
- 27 -
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%P
erce
ntag
e E
dge
of W
inne
r ove
r Run
ner-u
p
Edge in % Votes 19% 2% 10% 6% 37% 24% 30%
Edge in % of NA seats 38% 4% 38% 2% 52% 18% 40%
1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 20022008
(Projection)
The Dramatic 5% Swing Factor in Punjab
- 28 -
FPTP System andFPTP System andHUNG PARLIAMENT THESISHUNG PARLIAMENT THESIS
FPTP works against producing Hung Parliaments
Hence despite spoken and unspoken wishes to obtain Hung Parliaments the outcome in most elections has been to
the contrary
- 29 -
Hung Parliament
1970 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of SeatsWinner AL 39% 160 53%
Runner-up PPP 19% 81 27%
1988 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of SeatsWinner PPP 39% 93 47%
Runner-up IJI 32% 54 27%Runner-up MQM 5% 13 7%
1990 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of SeatsWinner IJI 37% 105 53%
Runner-up PDA 37% 45 23%Runner-up MQM 6% 15 8%
- 30 -
1993 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of SeatsWinner PPP 38% 86 44%
Runner-up PML-J 4% 6 3%Runner-up IJM 2% 4 2%Runner-up PML-N 40% 72 37%Runner-up PIF 3% 3 2%
1997 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of SeatsWinner PML-N 46% 136 69%
Runner-up PPP 21% 18 9%
2002 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of SeatsWinner PML-Q 26% 78 29%
Runner-up MMA 11% 45 17%Runner-up NA 5% 12 4%Runner-up PPP-P 26% 63 23%Runner-up PML-N 12% 15 6%
Continued……. Hung Parliament
- 31 -
Hung Parliament?
53%47% 53%
44%
69%
29%
9%23%
37%23%27%27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002% o
f Sea
ts in
Nat
iona
lA
ssem
bly
Winner Runner-up
- 32 -
Trends in Musharraf’s Net Approval Ratings
Year
Net Approval Rating:
(Approval minus Disapproval)
Surrounding Events
1999 85% Honeymoon2000 34% Honeymoon is over2001 32% A New Phase is about to start2002 25% 2002 Elections2003 81% Post Election Government2004 70%2005 54%2006 59%
32% Moves on to hold next Elections, Seeking Third Term Presidency
7% Judicial Crisis takes its toll2008 Zero Benazir Bhutto Assassinated
2007
The Post Election Government continues
- 33 -
85%
34% 32%
25%
81%70%
54% 59%
32%
7%Zero
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Mar.2007
Nov.2007
Jan.2008
Net Performance Rating ofPervez Musharraf
(1999-2008)
Method to Calculate: The performance Ratings were sought in a 5 Point Scale. The score above is calculated by the following tabulation: - Score =(Very Good+ Good) – (Bad + Very Bad)
- 34 -
S T O R Y O F D E M O C R A C Y ( F r o m A n t i q u i t y t o 2 1 s t C e n t u r y )
D E M O C R A C Y - - - - - - - - - - - O R I G I N S
I n d i v i d u a l S o c i a l G r o u p
G e n e r a t e s P o w e r
R e g u l a t o r s o f P o w e r
b e c o m e t o o ‘ P o w e r f u l ’
D I L E M M A
R e t u r n t o R a l l y t o I n d i v i d u a l G r o u p B e h a v i o r B e h a v i o r
A n a r c h y O p p r e s s i o n
S O L U T I O N S
L e v i a t h a n S o c i a l C o n t r a c t
( O p p r e s s i v e R u l e r ) ( S e l f - G o v e r n a n c e ) O B J E C T I V E
O r d e r T a m i n g o f P o w e r
M a g n a C a r t a S h a r i n g o f
P o w e r
- 35 -
E a r l y P a r l i a m e n t s o f t h e E l i t e
I n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f P o w e r S h a r i n g A r r a n g e m e n t s
E l e c t i o n s + P a r l i a m e n t s
U n i v e r s a l S u f f r a g e + P o l i t i c a l P a r t i e s
E l e c t i o n s D i r e c t
R e p r e s e n t a t i v e D e m o c r a c y D e m o c r a c y
I N S T I T U T I O N A L I Z A T I O N D I L E M M A S
B u r e a u c r a c y D i s e m p o w e r m e n t
E f f i c i e n c y C o r r u p t i o n
S O C I A L C H A N G E S
C o n t i n u i t y C h a n g e s
O u t d a t e d H a b i t s F o r m – Y e s a r e p o w e r f u l S u b s t a n c e - N o S e l f A d a p t a t i o n
I n f o r m a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y w h i c h o u t d a t e s a s p e c t s o f t h e I n t e r m e d i a t i o n b y R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s
o f t h e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e
D e m o c r a c y
C h a n g e s i n t h e S p a c e o f D e m o c r a c y w h i c h i s t h e N a t i o n - S t a t e
• G l o b a l i z a t i o n a n d R e g i o n a l i z a t io n
• C o m p l e x i t y
o f G o v e r n a n c e ( r e q u i r i n g T e c h n o c r a t i c S o l u t i o n )
C i i
- 36 -
Satisfied, Disillusioned OR Disgusted with Democracy, 2000V O P 2 0 0 0
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
Arm
enia
Rus
sia
Ukr
aine
Cam
eroo
nM
exic
oK
azak
hsta
nG
eorg
iaC
olom
bia
Pak
ista
nC
roat
iaP
arag
uay
Per
uB
elar
usB
osni
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0
1 0
2 0
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4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
- 37 -
0
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0
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Satisfied, Disillusioned OR Disgusted with Democracy, 2005
- 38 -
0
10
20
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0
10
20
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100Satisfied, Disillusioned OR Disgusted with
Democracy, 2007