Understanding Complex Urban Systems

John Fernandez MIT

Andrew Dobshinsky, AICP Wallace, Roberts & Todd

Paul Brown, AICP CDM Smith, Inc.

• Integrate the many dimensions of urban function (transportation, utilities, energy)

• Simulate/model the interactions between land use, infrastructure, and environment

• How do land use patterns and infrastructure design affect sustainable performance?

• Feedback loops – causes & effects – Bottom up: agent based

– Top down: urban metabolism

Understanding Complex Urban Systems

Understanding Complex Urban Systems Developing & Measuring Alternative Scenarios

Andrew Dobshinsky Associate / Planner, Wallace Roberts & Todd

Connections 2040 Cedar Rapids, IA

Connections 2040 Overview

Long-Range Transportation Plan Year Population 1980 150,000 2010 200,000 2040 290,000 (projected)

Connections 2040 Community Exercise

Connections 2040 Considerations

The Costs of Alternative Development Patterns: A Review of the Literature. Frank, James E.Washington, DC: The Urban Land Institute.

Municipal Capital Costs for Infrastructure

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

30 15 12 10 5 3 1 0.25

Mu

nic

ipal

Cap

ital

Co

sts

P

er

Ho

usi

ng

Un

it

Dwelling Units Per Acre

Leapfrog, 10 mile

Contiguous, 10 mile

Leapfrog, 5 mile

Contiguous, 5 mile

Leapfrog, 0 mile

Contiguous, 0 mile

Infill

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

BASE

Afternoon 2

Afternoon 3

Evening 1

Evening 4

Afternoon 5

Average

Afternoon 4

Afternoon 1

Evening 2

Evening 3

Low Density Residential

Medium Density Residential

High Density Residential

Mixed-Use

20-30% low density

40-50% low density 25-35% high density

40-60% low density 10-20% high density

85% low density 5% high density

Connections 2040 Community Exercise Results

Slope Water/ Sewer Service

Floodplain

Road Access

School Access

most likely to be developed

least likely to be developed

Connections 2040 Factors Influencing Growth

Road Access

most likely to be developed

least likely to be developed

Connections 2040 Likelihood of Development

Connections 2040 Future Land Use Plans

Connections 2040 Existing Development

85% low density residential 10% medium density residential 5% high density residential No mixed use 25,081 new acres urbanized Municipal cost to provide services to residences $1.42 billion

Connections 2040 Scenario 1

50% low density residential 20% medium density residential 20% high density residential 10% mixed use Includes downtown redevelopment in Cedar Rapids and Marion 21,841 new acres urbanized (13% less than Scenario 1) Municipal cost to provide services to residences $1.25 billion (12% less than Scenario 1)

Connections 2040 Scenario 2

25% low density residential 40% medium density residential 20% high density residential 15% mixed use Includes downtown redevelopment in Cedar Rapids and Marion and other redevelopment nodes 19,897 new acres urbanized (21% less than Scenario 1) Municipal cost to provide services to residences $1.16 billion (18% less than Scenario 1)

Connections 2040 Scenario 3

Preferred Scenario between Scenarios 1 and 2 Grey represents existing and preferred scenario development Colored areas are excess capacity

Connections 2040 Excess Capacity

Imagine Austin Austin, TX

• Natural and Sustainable

• Prosperous

• Livable

• Mobile and Interconnected

• Educated

• Creative

• Values and Respects People

Draft Vision “Word Cloud”

The Austin we Love is:

Imagine Austin Vision Statement

• Population and employment are projected to grow over the next 30 yrs

Employment Projection

+300,000 new jobs

(+ 1.5 – 1.3% Per Year)

Population Projection

+750,000 new residents

(+ 1.9 % Per Year)

in Austin and ETJ 2010 – 2039 Based on City of Austin projections

Develop a Future Scenario for Austin

Imagine Austin Chip Exercise

Base Map

Imagine Austin Chip Exercise

Mixed Use

Residential

Commercial Industrial

Transportation

Open Space

1 mi

1 mi2

Imagine Austin Chip Exercise

Imagine Austin Chip Exercise

A Distributed B Crescent C Centers D Linear Trend

Imagine Austin Alternative Scenarios

Best estimate of how Austin will develop if current trends continue.

Growth and new development distributed throughout the planning area.

Distributes growth in a crescent, conserving open space to the west.

Most mixed-use activity centers.

Concentrates development along north-south axis.

Imagine Austin Indicators

Imagine Austin Indicators

Imagine Austin Public Preferences

Scenario D (linear) received the highest percentage of 1st choice votes (58%) Scenario C (centers) received the highest percentage of 2nd choice votes (52%)

Imagine Austin Growth Concept Map

Thank You

urban metabolism

John E. Fernández, MIT

David J. Quinn

Noel Davis

Jonathan Krones

Karen Noiva

To Kien (Singapore)

2012 National APA Conference: Los Angeles | April 14-17, 2012

Urban Material Flows

• Goods & Services

• Built Env. &

Infrastructure

• Transportation

Addition to Stock Imports:

• Water

• Energy

• Materials

• Biomass

Domestic

extraction

Air emissions,

waste disposal,

etc.

Exports

Input Urban System Output

Adapted from EUROSTAT (2003)

33

Master diagram – urban material flows – UrbMet.org

Domestic Material

Consumption

eq. 1: I + E = O + S + stock

eq. 2: DMC = (I + E) – O

Flows

I: inputs (imports)

O: outputs (exports)

E: domestic extraction

S: domestic sink

Socioeconomic drivers

UAs: urban activities

(urban provision)

Urban Metabolism of Singapore

34

1960 1975 1990 2005

1.6

5

2.2

5

2.7

4

3.3

5

Pop

.

imports

exports

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

GFCF as % of GDP

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

(GFCF)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

GFCF per year (billion S$)

Singapore city-wide data

0 20 40 60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

GNI ('000 S$/cap.)

DMC (MT/cap.)

0 20 40 60

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

GNI ('000 S$/cap.)

Thousa

nds

Electricity (kWh/cap.)

0 20 40 60

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

GNI ('000 S$/cap.)

Water (m3/cap.)

37

Urban Resource Visualizer Demo

UNDERSTANDING URBAN COMPLEXITY WITH VALUE-FOCUSED MODELING

Improving the Design Process for High Performing Outcomes

The Challenge of Sustainable Cities

We agree as an industry on what

sustainability means, and we have good

ideas on how to achieve it.

But we struggle to achieve sustained

improvements in sustainability metrics,

even after investments in green

technologies in carefully executed

projects.

The challenge is the complexity of the

city as a system, and the lack of tools to

test our design alternatives.

Our Value Proposition

We work with planners, designers and program developers to incorporate dynamic system simulation tools into the urban planning and design process so that investment decisions can be based on quantifiable environmental, economic and social benefits

Embedding Simulation in the Process

Envision and draw urban plans to ‘feed’ into model

Urban Plan “Maps”

Ou

tpu

t Met

ric

Decision Variable

Alternative C

Alternative A

Alternative B

Target

Output, Analysis, and Decisions

Dynamic, integrated simulation in Urban Systems Model

Model Input Application

GIS Application

PowerSim Simulator

Output Tools

Urban Planners, Designers, and Architects

Staff from Public Agencies / Developers

Community Interests and Individuals

Public Agency / Developer Managers

Iterative Input and Feedback in Design and Planning

Process

Differences from Conventional Models

Not a static report card or rating system – although it can automatically fill out rating “forms”

Map-based platform and multiple building types that mirror the actual design

Forecasts actual performance under expected and unexpected environmental conditions and user demands

Hourly time-step reflecting daily demands not monthly or annual averages

Traffic and materials flows and management not just water and energy

Fully-integrated sub-systems and comprehensive performance reporting

Urban Systems Model

Gre

en

ho

use

Gas

es Water

Energy

Ecosystems

Buildings

Transportation

Solid Waste

Syst

em M

ap

Fin

anci

al A

nal

ysis

Activities

Urban Sectors

Fully Dynamic Integration

Complex Systems

". . . the hallmark of complex systems is their capacity to display counter-intuitive or just plain surprising behavior."

John L. Casti, Would-be Worlds: How Simulation is Changing the

Frontiers of Science.

Building Groups: Building groups will be specified

spatially and then described by

their percent composition of

building types.

General, Spatial Total Area Location Elevation

Composition Percent makeup, each building type

Library of Building Types

Urban Form

Building (and Land) Types: Building types are pre-defined

as appropriate to local project.

Each will include parameters

relevant to resource calculations

and energy modeling.

Occupancy Area per person

Building usage Gender ratio

Daily patterns

Resources (unit) Energy demand Water demand

Waste generated

Location Information Elevation

N-S, E-W location Orientation

Energy zone

Building Geometry Shape Footprint, roof area(s) Number stories Height

Land Properties Area Hardscape Soil Vegetation

Roof and Envelope Construction Material Color/Reflectivity Insulation Glazing

Technology - Water

Water Sector

GHG

Onsite Water

Reuse

Irrigation Reuse

Indoor Building

Reuse (graywater)

Used Water

Rain

Rooftop Rain Capture

& Storage

Rainwater

Management (water quantity and

quality)

System Supplies - Potable

- Recycled Water

Water Sector

• Water Demand Mgmt • Alternative Supplies • Water Reuse • Stormwater Mgmt

Key Features and Functions

• Supply and Demand Dynamics • Centralized vs Decentralized • ‘Closing the Loop’

Other Sectors/Layers

• Energy Consumption • Sludge & Biosolids Mgmt • GHG Emissions • Capital and Operating Costs

Technology - Energy

Energy Sector

GHG

Rooftop Solar PV

Rooftop Solar Hot Water

Bldg Integrated

Solar PV

Wind Turbines (at roof or ground)

System Supplies - Central ‘Grid’

- Local, Alternative

- Electricity, Gas, ‘Thermal’

Energy Efficient

Building Design Electricity Storage (electric vehicles,

batteries, “smart grid”)

Energy Sector

• Energy Demand Mgmt • Alternative Supplies • Electricity Storage • Smart Energy Systems

Key Features and Functions

• Cogeneration at Facilities • Centralized vs Decentralized • District Heating , ‘Waste Heat’

Other Sectors/Layers

• Solid Waste Management • GHG Emissions • Capital and Operating Costs

Transportation

Transportation Sector

Inter-town

private vehicle

Inter-town mass

transit

Intra-town,

multiple-mode

Transportation Sector

• Transportation demand • Inter- and intra-town tracking • Multiple modes • Transportation fuel demands

Key Features and Functions

• Modal split estimate • Influenced by urban form • Walking and cycling networks

Other Sectors/Layers

• GHG Emissions • Fuel demands • Electricity demands for electric modes (train, electric fleet)

GHG

Greenhouse Gases

GHG Layer

• Detailed GHG Accounting • Custom User-Input and Setup • Flexible Pivot-Chart Output • Linked to GIS Mapping

Other Sectors/Layers

• All Sectors Report Emissions • Include Cost of Carbon

Vehicles

Process (landfill, incineration)

Power Plant

Emissions

Energy Use

Refrigerants Atmosphere

Emissions

C02

Sequestered Energy

Use Energy

Use

Energy

Use

Wastewater

Emissions

Water

Ecosystems

Energy

Buildings

Transportation

Solid Waste

Qu

alit

y o

f

Life

Energy ProducedRoof Area for Rain Capture

En

erg

y

De

ma

nd

Waste Generated

Water Demand, Wastewater Generated

Urb

an

He

at Is

lan

d

Te

mp

era

ture

Shading

Urban Heat Island

Index

Quality of Life

Eco Index

Wa

ter

Atte

nu

atio

n

Air Emissions

To

tal E

ne

rgy U

se

Em

issio

ns

GH

G

Re

du

ce

d D

em

an

d

Re

liab

ility

Grid

Re

qu

ire

me

nt

Re

ne

wa

ble

En

erg

y

Pe

ak P

ow

er

Sh

ave

d

Water Demand

(cooling)

Air Emissions

GHG

Eco Intrusion Index

Fuel Demand

Ve

hic

le M

iles, H

ou

rs T

rave

led

Qu

alit

y o

f L

ife

Pro

xim

ity M

etr

ics

Impervious Surface, Runoff

Electric Vehicle

Demand

Air Emissions

Ma

teria

l F

ate

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

n D

em

an

d

Energy Generated

(Waste to Energy)

Energy Demand

Water Demand, Wastewater Generation

Wa

ter

Ava

ilab

le

Re

liab

ility

De

ma

nd

Re

du

ctio

n

On

site

Ca

ptu

re

an

d R

eu

se

Flo

od

Mitig

atio

n

Energy Demand

(process)

Po

llutio

n

Bicycle

Auto

Bus

Light Rail

Transport Modes

TransportationDemand

Origin/Destination

Population

Trips

Built Areas

Natural Area

Surface Water Area

Open Area

Infrastructure

Area Summary

Inp

uts

- R

ain

Se

rie

s

- E

T S

erie

s

- D

em

an

d F

acto

rs

Inp

uts

- S

ola

r S

erie

s

- W

ind

Se

rie

s

- D

em

an

d F

acto

rs

- G

rid

Typ

e

Inp

uts

- M

od

es

- N

etw

ork

De

scrip

tio

n

- V

eh

icle

typ

es

- T

rip

s/d

estin

atio

ns

Inp

uts

- R

ou

tin

g o

ptio

ns

Inp

uts

- B

uild

ing

de

sig

n

- S

ite

la

yo

ut

- U

rba

n d

esig

n

- P

op

ula

tio

n

- B

uild

ing

usa

ge

- P

er

ca

pita

de

ma

nd

s

Inp

uts

- C

lima

te

- T

op

og

rap

hy

- W

ate

rsh

ed

an

d

b

io c

ha

racte

ristics

Water Sector

Energy Demand

Demands• Indoor Potable• Indoor Nonpotable• Cooling• Irrigation

Discharge

Rain Capture

Treatment

TreatmentPumping Storage

Pumping Storage

StorageRooftop Runoff

Municipal WTP

Municipal WWTP

Pumping

Municipal Supply

Greywater

Recycled Water

Rainwater

Losses Consumption Electric Power Demands

Solar EvaporativeCooling

Ground SourceHeat Pump

RainwaterCooling Exchange

Surface WaterCooling Exchange

SolarHeat Exchange

SewerHeat Exchange

Waste-to Energy

Building Solar PV

Building Hydro Power

Fuel Cells

Grid Power

Site Wind

Site/City Solar PV

Biogas (WW)

Electricity

OtherSector

Demands

AirCooling

Lighting

WaterHeating Water

PumpsPlug

Loads

Co

-Ge

ne

rati

on

FuelDemand

WaterSector

Energy Sector

Solid WasteGeneration

He

igh

t

AmbientTemperature

BuildingOrientation

Angle ofSunlight

Area

TreeShading

Landfill

Process Process Process

Waste-to-EnergyRecycleCompost

WaterSector

EnergySector

WasteGeneration

Biogas Energy

Greenhouse Gas Layer

Hourly Output Example

Value-Focused Modeling

Performance of decentralised technologies

Waste minimisation and reuse

Capital and operating lifecycle cost reductions

Comprehensive tracking of GHG emissions

Maximizing synergy among technologies and avoiding redundant or low-yield investments

Resilience under both normal and extreme conditions

Holistic innovation that improves quality of life

Q & A