Post on 02-Jul-2015
description
Global Challenges to 2030&
Long-Range Strategic Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean
ForUN ECLAC – CEPAL
Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project
When this begins to
happen, the speed and capacity of AI for AI will
make
far more
change than Moore’s Law
Artificial Intelligence, teaching artificial intelligence to be more intelligent, will be able to teach more intelligently worldwide
Some Global Future ImpactsSome Global Future Impacts• How many researchers, service agents, lawyers and other
professionals will IBM’s Watson replace by 2020, 2030, 2050? • What new capabilities will be created by Google’s artificial brain
and the brain projects of US, EU, and China by 2030?• How many traffic police, and taxi, bus, and truck drivers will
driverless vehicles replace by 2030? • How many call center employees will interactive voice AI systems
replace? • What could the impact of 3D printing and robot manufacturing on
international trade?
Robot Farming replacing how many farmers?
Self-Assembly Robotic AI manufacturingcould build these one day in Patagonia
Vertical Farming, Carbon Sink, Art
New concepts of work and economics needed
• Capitalism/Socialism/Communism – early industrial age systems
• Next system too complex to understand to day – but some seeds can be; 32 seeds identified and assessed by the Millennium Project
• Non-ownership - Means of Production available to all, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership (e.g. The Internet and open source software)
• Decentralized Autonomous Organization peer to peer “work for software” but NO central – human managed or owned corporation (like the internet, but just one piece of AI software is the “company.”
• One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet—individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs
Next Mega Trend: Conscious-TechnologyWhen the distinction between these two trends
becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post-Information Age
HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS
BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT
19852000
20152030
Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time
Agricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical
Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear
Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible
Conscious-Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented
Distillation of History and Future Direction
If\then Nano-technology
Synthetic Biology
Internet of Things
3D Printing Conscious-Technology
Augmented Reality
Nano-technology xxx Synthetic Biology xxx Internet of Things xxx 3D Printing
xxx Conscious-Technology xxx Augmented Reality xxx
Emerging Technologies Table
15 Global Challenges: A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity
Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
Challenge 3: How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?
Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?
Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and
poor?
Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be
reduced?
Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions
change?
Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass
destruction?
Challenge 11: How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?
Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and
sophisticated global enterprises?
2013 State of the Future Index
World World Report CardReport Card
Where are We Winning?
Where are We Losing?
World World Report CardReport Card
What is Unclear or not Changing?
World World Report CardReport Card
ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition
The World is in a Race
Between implementing
and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems.
Global Collective Intelligence can help…
Win the Race
Some Implications for Latin America
• Latin America is way too dependent on high commodity prices for its future• It has to re-orient it’s concepts of growth, employment, and economics.• True, it has to improve governance and the rule of law, but without a new vision of future, change is not
likely.• So, how to change the future view from commodities to the next economics?
• Presidential Future Strategy Units (Chilean Council of Prospective and Strategy)
• Produce annual state of the future of the nation report
• State of the Future Index for each country and the LAC region
• National Collective Intelligence System
• Create and maintain national and regional futures situation chart online
• Establish a permanent Committee for the Future in national legislatures
• Need global organized crime strategy – right now, who provides more opportunities to young people government or organized crime?
• Participate in RIBER with former President Leonel Fernández of the Dominican Republic
• Many organizations in the LAC Region
Futuristic Management for LAC
1. Hierarchy
2. Networks
3. Intersection of Networks: Nodes
4. Connecting Nodes into Fields of Play
5. Connecting Fields of Play
Development projects should leap frog as mush as possible
• Pure meat without growing animals• Seawater agriculture – shore line and in water - Youth Corps to plant seagrass• 3-Printing – reduce imports and costs• Synthetic biology – totally new capabilities• Computational science – acceleration and dissemination of knowledge • Tele-education, tele-medicine, tele-nations, tele-everything• Internet of things with universal high speed Internet• Increasing intelligence (individual and national)• Nanotechnology• Retrofitting buildings for energy production• One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)
One-Person Businesses
Find markets around the world for what you are interested in doing
not non-existing jobs
LAC Public Situation Chart – Like Wiki
Leap-Frog Activities
Current Status Next Steps CommentsSynergies
Sea Water Agriculture
FAO, World Bank,Eritrea (Seawater Forest Initiative), Mexico (Seawater Foundation, Bahia Kino), UAE (UAE University), Australia (Seawater Green House), Oman, others
National Youth Corps to plant seagrass, contact Seawater Greenhouse (UK) Seawater Foundation (US), See investments (in-water and on-beach agriculture)
IDB, China, FAO, USAIS, PAHO for food process plant feasibility study, Youth Corps for production and consumption
Growing meat and leather without animals
Initial demonstration-tions to attract investors
Review Univ. of Maastricht and others research, contact New Harvest, others
Improved protein and iron foods, Meals for Youth Corps, FAO global PR plan, invite business investors
Tele-LAC Nations Brain drain programs filing, alternative: Tele-Jamaica
Create website to match development needs with Caribbean clubs overseas
Integrate all development programs into tele-Caribbean Basin web site
Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc.
First 3D Printed Kidney’s but not readyfor transplant as they only live 4 months
UCLA’s Solar Cell Windows
3-D Printed Shoes
Yet, The Future may be slipping through our fingers
Nature does not care…
about what is politically feasible… 450 vs. 350 ppm CO2 equivilant
or Equitable … CO2/capita
Meanwhile the long-term trend of prices are going up
High Food Prices – Long-Term
1. population growth2. rising affluence especially India &
China3. diversion of corn for biofuels4. soil erosion5. aquifer depletion6. the loss of cropland7. falling water tables and water
pollution8. Increasing fertilizer costs (high oil
prices) 9. Market speculation
10. diversion of water from rural to urban11. Increasing meat consumption12. global food reserves at 25-year lows13. climate change
13. Increasing droughts 14. Increasing flooding15. Melting mountain glaciers reducing
water flows16. And eventually saltwater invading crop
lands
Salt Water Agriculture: Saves H2O for Cities, Sequests Carbon, new food, paper products
Growing Pure Meat without Growing Animals
August 5th a London chef cooked and served first public taste test for hamburgers grown from cow’s cells with growing/killing a cow
How to increase Individual Intelligence1. Responding to feedback
2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment
3. Nutrition
4. Reasoning exercises
5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect)
6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations
7. Software systems and gaming
8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry)
9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy
10. Low stress, stimulating environments, music, color, fragrances improves performance
Longer term:
1. Reverse engineering the brain (US, EU, and China national programs)
2. Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering
3. Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons
1. Human Brains: Ideally 100 Reviewers per Global Challenge plus subscribers and 50+ Nodes around the world
2. Data, Information, Intelligence, maybe wisdom: 10,000+ pages of futures research by The Millennium Project
3. Software: Real-time Delphi (exert and crowd sourcing), State of the Future Index, Computer Models, Text and Data Mining
How to increase national intelligence with national collective intelligence system
Collective Intelligence
• It emerges from the integration and synergies among• data/info/knowledge• software/hardware• experts and others with insight
• that continually learns from feedback
• to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions
• than these elements acting alone.
An Application of Collective Intelligence:
… May become a TransInstitution
The Millennium Project
50+ Millennium Project Nodes...
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
For further information:
Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org
202-686-5179
StateoftheFuture.org
themp.orgGlobal Futures Intelligence System
For further information
The Millennium Project4421 Garrison Street, NW,
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org
www.StateoftheFuture.orgwww.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)