Post on 14-Aug-2019
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 1
TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER
November 2013
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 2
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 3
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 4
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 5
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 6
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 7
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 8
Tw.I-2013 Tw.II-2013 Juli Agustus September
1 Batubara 16,6 -7,3 -8,7 4,4 -4,1 -8,0
2 Minyak Nabati 12,1 -14,2 8,3 -42,1 -20,7 -19,3
3 Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil 8,8 -0,3 2,8 21,0 -18,4 4,6
4 Alat Listrik, Ukur dan Fotografi 7,4 -3,8 -3,9 -0,1 -3,4 -5,4
5 Karet Olahan 6,4 -6,1 -22,0 -2,6 -19,6 -4,5
6 Barang dari Logam Tidak Mulia 5,7 -9,5 2,6 -4,5 -9,3 -26,7
7 Makanan Olahan 3,5 -4,2 9,3 19,1 9,6 1,5
8 Kertas dan Barang dari Kertas 2,5 -8,0 -6,4 -3,9 -13,6 -4,2
9 Produk Kimia 2,3 -1,6 -7,5 -10,2 -13,9 -6,6
10 Kayu Olahan 2,3 -6,1 8,1 18,2 -8,5 9,3
No Rincian PangsaPertumbuhan Nominal (%,yoy)
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 9
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 10
%,mtm Kontribusi (%, mtm)
Deflasi
Daging Ayam Ras 7.17 0.12
Bawang Merah 13.02 0.11
Telur Ayam Ras 4.75 0.04
Tomat 18.79 0.05
Kentang 3.58 0.01
Wortel 6.48 0.01
Cabe Rawit 3.30 0.01
Inflasi
Cabe Merah 39.85 0.18
Jeruk 3.03 0.02
Mie Instan 2.48 0.01
Beras 0.20 0.01
Kelapa 3.63 0.01
Sumber : BPS
KomoditiOktober 2013
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 11
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
01-J
an-0
8
01-M
ar-0
8
01-M
ay-0
8
01-J
ul-
08
01-S
ep-0
8
01-N
ov-
08
01-J
an-0
9
01-M
ar-0
9
01-M
ay-0
9
01-J
ul-
09
01-S
ep-0
9
01-N
ov-
09
01-J
an-1
0
01-M
ar-1
0
01-M
ay-1
0
01-J
ul-
10
01-S
ep-1
0
01-N
ov-
10
01-J
an-1
1
01-M
ar-1
1
01-M
ay-1
1
01-J
ul-
11
01-S
ep-1
1
01-N
ov-
11
01-J
an-1
2
01-M
ar-1
2
01-M
ay-1
2
01-J
ul-
12
01-S
ep-1
2
01-N
ov-
12
01-J
an-1
3
01-M
ar-1
3
01-M
ay-1
3
01-J
ul-
13
01-S
ep-1
3
Nilai Tukar (dep (+)/apr (-), %, yoy)
Indeks Harga Impor (proksi Imported Inflation, % YOY) *)
Inflasi Core Tradable (%, yoy), RHS
*) Indeks komposit harga global dengan weigted average (berdasar prosentase impor dan bobot di IHK) dari komoditas pangan
(CPO, gandum, gula, jagung dan kedelai) , minyak dunia (WTI), emas, kapas, dan besi.
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 13
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
Vol DF O/N (RHS) Vol PUAB O/N (RHS)
rBI Rate rPUAB O/N
rDF O/N
Rp T%
Avg Vol DF: Rp 98.8 TRRT Vol PUAB : Rp 11.1 T
rPUAB : 5.70%
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
2-4 Hari 1 Minggu
2 Minggu 1 Bulan
bps
Spread PUAB to O/N (bps)
*rata-rata tertimbang suku bunga beri (%)
Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Ags Sep
BI Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.25
Penjaminan Deposito 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.75 6.25 6.25 7.00
Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang) 5.39 5.42 5.40 5.49 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 6.19 6.73*
Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK) 11.78 11.73 11.70 11.68 11.61 11.49 11.49 11.45 11.44 11.44 11.46 11.41 11.66 11.63 11.79
Kredit Investasi (KI) 11.42 11.35 11.36 11.29 11.24 11.27 11.29 11.27 11.24 11.21 11.17 11.14 11.29 11.37 11.49
Kredit Konsumsi (KK) 13.92 13.69 13.67 13.60 13.53 13.58 13.40 13.22 13.28 13.22 13.20 13.14 13.06 13.05 13.03
20132012Suku Bunga (%)
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5
7
9
11
13
15
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Spread-rhs Sb Kredit Sb Dep 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS
%
Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 541bps
%
6.73
12.14
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 15
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Pertanian
Pertambangan
Industri Pengolahan
Listrik, Air dan Gas
Konstruksi
Perdagangan
Pengangkutan
Jasa Dunia Usaha
Jasa Sosial
Lainnya Pangsa Sept-13 (%)
Sept-13 (Kontribusi)
Sept-13 (%yoy)
Sept-13 (%ytd)
%
Indikator
Utama Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Sep
Total Aset (T Rp) 4,009.4 4,028.8 4,103.5 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 4,367.8 4,418.7 4,461.8 4,510.3 4,581.1 4,737.3
DPK (T Rp) 3,050.0 3,070.6 3,130.5 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1 3,299.4 3,349.7 3,374.4 3,392.9 3,440.2 3,526.2
Kredit * (T Rp) 2,555.9 2,585.4 2,631.0 2,707.9 2,688.1 2,718.7 2,768.4 2,824.2 2,887.5 2,959.1 3,021.1 3,067.4 3,147.2
LDR* (%) 83.8 84.2 84.0 84.0 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.6 86.2 87.7 89.0 89.2 89.3
NPLs Gross* (%) 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9
CAR (%) 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.0
NIM (%) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5
ROA (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
* tanpa channeling
20132012
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 16
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13
M2 M1 M0 BI Rate (RHS)
%, yoy %
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 17
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7Ju
l-0
7O
ct-
07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8Ju
l-0
8O
ct-
08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9Ju
l-0
9O
ct-
09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0Ju
l-1
0O
ct-
10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
ct-
11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2Ju
l-1
2O
ct-
12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3Ju
l-1
3O
ct-
13
JCI BI RATE
4,5%
1,0%
4,3%
6,4%
2,2%
1,4%
-1,5%
1,5%
9,2%
4,2%
-0,9%
2,8%
3,8%
3,9%
-4% 0% 4% 8% 12%
Indonesia (IHSG)
Vietnam
Thailand (SET)
Philippine
Kuala Lumpur (KLCI)
Strait Times (STI)
Shanghai (SHCOMP)
Hong Kong (Hang Seng)
India (SENSEX)
England (FTSE)
Japan (Nikkei)
US (Dow Jones)
EM ASIA
World
4,5%
4,8%
4,5%
6,9%
9,7%
2,0%
2,2%
1,6%
0,3%
4,9%
-3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12%
IHSG
Infrastructure
Mining
Finance
Basic Industry
Misc. Industry
Consumption
Trade
Agriculture
Property
Monthly Changes
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net Beli/Jual (RHS) IHSG
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 18
-120
-90
-60
-30
0
30
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
Spread Okt 2013 - Sept 2013Sep-13Oct-13
% bps
Tenor
(1,9)
1,4
5,2 5,8 5,3
4,1
2,8
(2,9)
(11,0)
1,4
(1,6)
5,7
7,3
(5,8)
(2,9)
4,1
(3,9)
(8,6)
3,7
(7,7)
3,5
(2,0)
5,5
(2,8)
0,6
2,0
(5,6)
4,4 4,6
(8,9)
(1,8)(2,1)(1,7)
7,5
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
(15,0)
(10,0)
(5,0)
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
Jan
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
rM
ay
Jun
eJu
lyA
ug
ust
Se
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
rM
ei
Jun
iJu
liA
gu
stu
sS
ep
tO
kt
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
rM
ei
Jun
iJu
liA
gu
stu
sS
ep
tem
be
rO
kto
be
r
2011 2012 2013
Short Term Mid Term Long Term 'yield SBN'
Rp T%
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 19
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 20
Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Sep Oct
SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM
Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) 4.75 4.77 4.80 4.84 4.86 4.87 4.89 5.02 5.28 5.52 5.86 6.96 -
Suku bunga deposito 1 bln 2) 5.49 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 6.19 6.73 -
Suku bunga deposito 3 bln 2) 5.66 5.81 5.76 5.89 5.92 5.64 5.73 5.68 5.72 5.99 6.16 6.58 -
JIBOR satu minggu 2) 4.27 4.29 4.32 4.30 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.27 4.46 4.93 5.32 5.89 -
IHSG Indeks 3) 4,350 4,276 4,317 4,454 4,796 4,941 5,034 5,069 4,819 4,610 4,195 4,316 4,511
BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)
Uang Primer 648,106 647,979 704,843 664,007 655,486 664,935 667,122 681,508 691,678 750,446 713,448 715,662 -
M1(C+D) 774,983 801,403 841,721 787,916 786,606 810,112 832,273 822,930 858,557 879,986 855,783 864,637 -
Uang Kartal (C) 326,119 327,069 361,967 326,885 321,541 331,226 324,393 334,087 347,204 383,932 359,417 357,001 -
Uang giral (D) 448,864 474,334 479,755 461,031 465,065 478,886 507,880 488,843 511,353 496,054 496,365 507,636 -
Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 3,162,746 3,206,165 3,305,744 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,506,574 3,502,420 3,580,340 -
Uang kuasi (T) 2,377,122 2,394,355 2,453,602 2,470,101 2,483,011 2,500,342 2,515,813 2,588,094 2,543,285 2,608,175 2,625,946 2,691,309 -
Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 10,640 10,406 10,420 10,829 10,861 12,132 12,902 15,335 11,594 18,413 20,691 24,394 -
Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 3,164,504 3,207,967 3,307,577 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,506,574 3,502,420 3,580,340 -
Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 990,455 989,138 965,442 960,233 937,714 947,362 940,165 935,590 833,821 849,697 879,470 972,111 -
Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 2,174,049 2,218,829 2,342,135 2,308,612 2,342,764 2,375,225 2,420,822 2,490,768 2,579,616 2,656,876 2,622,950 2,608,229 -
Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 285,784 313,325 389,827 378,366 361,337 366,902 341,302 322,822 330,871 377,080 340,332 342,381 -
Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 2,787,802 2,830,066 2,917,452 2,894,235 2,924,875 2,973,874 3,028,028 3,109,337 3,180,790 3,235,593 3,285,901 3,381,898 -
PERTUMBUHAN BESARAN MONETER (%,YOY)
Uang Primer 14.45 13.92 14.89 11.77 13.22 13.46 11.82 12.65 10.25 18.18 8.43 12.02 -
M1(C+D) 16.54 20.04 16.42 13.15 15.13 13.42 15.45 9.80 10.15 14.02 10.79 8.69 -
Uang Kartal (C) 15.92 17.20 17.61 14.20 14.79 15.39 11.53 13.34 10.34 21.74 9.89 9.66 -
Uang giral (D) 17.00 22.09 15.54 12.42 15.36 12.10 18.09 7.51 10.03 8.68 11.45 8.02 -
Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 18.11 17.46 14.89 14.50 15.11 14.10 14.82 14.52 11.87 14.76 13.35 14.52 -
Uang kuasi (T) 18.84 16.96 14.66 15.14 15.45 14.54 14.83 16.19 12.77 14.86 13.90 16.03 -
Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) -14.69 -29.43 -27.58 -19.24 -30.98 -17.86 -16.49 1.68 -30.20 42.38 70.89 112.91 -
Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 18.18 17.53 14.96 14.41 15.02 14.01 14.72 14.42 11.81 14.69 13.29 14.45 -
Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 8.48 5.26 5.84 2.80 -0.47 2.29 -2.41 -3.66 -9.91 -9.25 -7.98 -0.36 -
Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 23.19 23.97 19.19 20.05 22.66 19.47 23.12 23.10 21.26 25.26 22.80 21.17 -
Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 10.95 28.07 11.01 17.43 22.02 23.49 40.38 34.48 16.37 35.13 25.40 14.55 -
Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 22.09 21.06 22.39 21.82 21.64 20.61 20.10 20.13 20.03 21.42 22.01 22.78 -
Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) 0.16 0.07 0.54 1.03 0.75 0.63 -0.10 -0.03 1.03 3.29 1.12 -0.35 0.09
Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) 4.61 4.32 4.30 4.57 5.31 5.90 5.57 5.47 5.90 8.61 8.79 8.40 8.32
Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) 9,615 9,605 9,670 9,698 9,664 9,718 9,723 9,795 9,925 10,278 10,920 11,580 11,273
Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) 12,636 13,202 12,313 12,386 11,897 12,727 12,480 13,308 11,970 12,874 10,487 12,248 -
Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) 13,053 12,479 11,715 11,608 11,619 10,969 12,792 13,200 12,127 13,327 9,450 11,811 -
Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.6 -
Konsumsi 3.9 4.7 4.7 5.9 -
Investasi (PMTB) 7.3 5.9 4.7 4.5 -
Perubahan Stok 94.6 16.5 -0.6 -18.7 -
Ekspor 0.5 3.6 4.8 5.3 -
Impor 6.8 -0.1 0.6 3.8 -
1) minggu terakhir
2) rata-rata tertimbang
3) penutupan pada akhir periode
4) closed file
Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS
Tw.II
2012
Tw.IV
2012
Tw.I
2013
Tw.III
2013
H A R G A
SEKTOR EKSTERNAL
INDIKATOR KUARTALAN
SEKTOR KEUANGAN