The Winners

Losers in the move to

Real-Time Cloud Communications

Structure

• The Facts

• Why do we need APIs?

• Why all the big numbers?

• Mapping the Cloud Communications API landscape

• Where to Focus?

• Where is the Telecom Application Developer Ecosystems going?

• Who are the winners and losers?

2

© 2010 Alan Quayle Business and Service Development

No developed market telco has successfully engaged

mobile application developers with Telecom

APIs

BUT Telecom API successes have come from

using APIs internally

AND Telecom API successes have come from

using APIs with existing partners

APIs reduce business friction. This means the value is not ‘in

the API’ it’s in the service or data delivered through the API.

Mobile Application Developers ONLY care about direct access to

a large engaged customer base that is prepared to pay.

Apple and Android fulfill this need, Telcos are IRRELEVANT

This is the Most Important Slide in the Pack R

eve

nu

e

Product

Internal Telco Developers

Partner Developers

Telecom App Developers

Mobile App Developers

Long Tail Developers

‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on

app platforms (10Ms)

IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app

platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms)

What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?

Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure

(10ks)

All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles

Developers that recognize they build telecom apps

today

‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on

app platforms (10Ms)

IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app

platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms)

What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?

Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure

(10ks)

All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles

Developers that recognize they build telecom apps

tomorrow

What is an API?

• http://www.telco.com/api.php?action=remove_friction

APIs reduce business friction by making it easy for software systems to work together using existing well understood web technology that any IT person can understand

Why do we need Telecom APIs?

1995 2000 2005 2010

Why do we need a Web site?

Of course we have a Web site

Why do we need an API?

Of course we have an API

Innovation Upsell

New business

Operational efficiency Increase footprint Accelerate internal projects

Extend products / services

Make churn harder Partner opportunities

New distribution Device and mobile support

Telecoms is the ‘vital spice’ of any successful business ecosystem

Process automation

Show me the money? graphic

Where’s the Money in External APIs?

Mobile payments revenue, source BI Intelligence. Includes Apple, Android, Square, Visa Mobile, etc. $244B by 2017

$157B by 2018 Total Telecom API revenue, source Mind Commerce. Payment, Communications, Identity, Cloud, etc.

$18B in 2016

Alan Quayle’s view is the revenues will be $18B and dominated by payment and communication service revenues by 2016

Juniper predicts DCB (Direct Carrier Billing) growing from $2.5B in 2012 to $13B in 2017 (this assumes only digital downloads, not goods and services)

Easy and Economical 90%

Global comms clouds Laggards 10%

Telco becomes the “path of last resort” as apps use “easy and economical” APIs for 90% of

comms Applications

Customers

Telco

What if a Telco does nothing?

Mapping vendors across the API landscape

Cloud / BOSS Assets

IT / Service Assets

Network Assets

IMS Assets

Transactional APIs

e.g. call control

Informational APIs

(e.g. customer profile)

Developer

Community

Developer

Portal

API

Management

API

Services

Network

Gateway

API Publishers Tropo, Twilio,

etc.

API Management (including API Security) Intel Software (Mashery), CA (Layer 7), Apigee

Mapping vendors across the API landscape

Cloud / BOSS Assets

IT / Service Assets

Network Assets

IMS Assets

Transactional APIs Informational APIs

Developer

Community

Developer

Portal

API

Management

API

Services

Network

Gateway

Intel (Aepona), Ericsson, Huawei, Oracle, Open Source

Apigee, Intel (Mashery), Layer 7 (CA), SOA Software, 3Scale, IBM, Open Source

2600Hz, Aculab, Apidaze,

Bandwidth, hSenid Mobile,

OnMobile, OpenCloud,

Plivo, Restcomm, Solaiemes,

TelAPI, Tropo, Twilio, etc.

Where are External Telco APIs going?

• External Telecom API Roadmap

o Payments: whether to expand beyond digital downloads

o Communications: across all VAS not just calls – RCS, messaging,

number provision, WebRTC, etc.

• Focus on building a businesses around the APIs rather than

publish and wishful thinking

o Sales, marketing, business development and critically support

o Traditional transition from tech-focus to business-focus

Customers

Services

Fixed Voice

($325B)

Mobile Voice

($615B)

Fixed Data

($275B)

Mobile Data

($275B)

Regulated Services($1.5T)

Un-regulated Services($650B)-5 to -7%

5.5 to 9%

3 to 4%

0 to 2%

0-2%

Total Telecoms Services($2.15T)

3-6%

+ =

Over the Top Messaging hits SMS growth

Mobile substitution of fixed broadband with LTE

OTT substitution, saturation, competition

Mobile and OTT substitution

Sources: operator averages across developed and developing markets, supplier estimates, Alan Quayle

1-3.3%

Threats to Revenue

There’s just 2 things we need to focus on

Make Telecoms an Essential Spice for every Business Recipe

Do more VAS!

Telecom Application Developer Ecosystem R

eve

nu

e

Product

Internal Telco Developers

Partner Developers

Telecom App Developers

Mobile App Developers

Long Tail Developers

‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on

app platforms (10Ms)

IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app

platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms)

What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?

Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure

(10ks)

All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles

Developers that recognize they build telecom apps

tomorrow

No Gatekeeper Focus

Motivation

www.tadsummit.com