Post on 12-Jan-2016
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The Washington Labor Market: Is This a Recovery or What?
To: Manufacturing and Wholesale Distribution Summit
By Greg Weeks, Ph.D., Director of Labor Market & Economic AnalysisSeptember 14-15, 2010Olympia, WA
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Recessions History and Summary
Peak Trough
% Job Change,
US
% Job Change,
WA Duration Comment
1948 - Nov 1949 - Oct -5.0% -5.0% 11 1953 - Jul 1954 - May -3.1% -1.0% 10
1957 - Aug 1958 - Apr -4.0% -3.8% 8
1960 - Apr 1961 - Feb -2.3% -1.9% 10
1969 - Dec 1970 - Nov -1.2% -5.3% 11
1973 - Nov 1975 - Mar -1.6% -4.2% 16 1980 - Jan 1982 - Nov -2.2% -3.6% 34A double Dip1990 - Jul 1991 - Mar -1.1% 1.0% 8
2001 - Mar 2001 - Nov -1.2% -1.9% 8
2007 - Dec 2009 - Dec -6.1% -6.5% 24Started 2/08 in WA
2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 0.5% 0.7% 7Recovery?
Timing of 2007 recession and recovery unofficial, by author
3
Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Nevada Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Arizona
Mortgage Foreclosures Started: WashingtonMortgage Foreclosures Started: U.S.
1009080706050403020100
Sources: MBA /Haver
4
3
2
1
0
4
3
2
1
0
Though foreclosures spiked in Washington, it was far less than in states with a bigger housing “bubble”
4
NASDAQ Composite Market CapitalizationBillions, $
NYSE Market Capitalization: Billions.$
1009080706050403020100Sources: NASDAQ, World Federation of Exchanges /Haver Analytics
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
Between these equity losses in value and home prices, US households lost nearly a year’s GDP
in paper wealth
5
US Quarterly Housing Starts: 1 Unit Structures 4-qtr Change Not Seasonally Adjusted, Thous.Units
1009080706050403020100
Source: Bureau of the Census /Haver Analytics
80
40
0
-40
-80
-120
-160
80
40
0
-40
-80
-120
-160
These data show the effects of the real estate financial crisis
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Conference Board: Consumer ConfidenceSA, 1985=100
10050095908580Source: The Conference Board /Haver Analytics
150
125
100
75
50
25
150
125
100
75
50
25
Consumer confidence has recovered from record lows to “normal” recessionary levels
7
Nonagricultural Employment, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands
Nonfarm Employment, USSeasonally Agjusted, Thousands
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
3000
2925
2850
2775
2700
2625
138000
136000
134000
132000
130000
128000
The recession hit both the nation and the state about equally hard
8
Nonfarm Employment, US (Dec. 2007 = 100)Seasonally Agjusted
Nonagricultural Employment, Washington (Dec. 2007 = 100)Seasonally Adjusted
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
102.5
100.0
97.5
95.0
92.5
90.0
87.5
102.5
100.0
97.5
95.0
92.5
90.0
87.5
Both Washington and the US shed over 6% of their jobs in the recession
9
Unemployment Rate, United StatesSeasonally Adjusted, %
Unemployment Rate, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, %
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
12
10
8
6
4
2
12
10
8
6
4
2
The Washington state unemployment rate has been just below the national rate throughout the recession
10
Unemployment Rate, United StatesSeasonally Adjusted, %
Unemployment Rate, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, %
10050095908580Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
Much of Washington’s recent history has seen its unemployment rate exceed the national rate
11
Unemployment Rate, Washington (Seasonally Adjusted, %)Unemployment Rate, OregonUnemployment Rate, Idaho
Unemployment Rate, California
1009080706050403020100Sources: BLS /Haver
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Washington near the middle of the pack among state unemployment rates
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Civilian Unemployment Rate: Women, 16 Years +Civilian Unemployment Rate: Men, 16 Years +
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr +
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
12
10
8
6
4
2
12
10
8
6
4
2
This recession hit men harder than women, US data
13
U.Rate: College Graduates: 25+ Years U.Rate: < Bachelor's Degree: 25+ Years
U.Rate: HS Diploma, No College: 25+ YearsU.Rate: < HS Diploma: 25+ Years
1009080706050403020100Sources: BLS /Haver
16
12
8
4
0
16
12
8
4
0
Recession hit less educated much harder, US data
14
Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and OverSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands
Civilians Unemployed for Less Than 5 WeeksSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
3750
3500
3250
3000
2750
2500
2250
Nationally, this recession was associated with unprecedented numbers of long term unemployed
15
+ Part Time Econ Reasons + Marginally Attached
+ Discouraged Workers US Civilian Unemployment Rate: (Seasonally Adjusted)
1009080706050403020100Sources: BLS /Haver
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
US measures of labor underutilization: what is the “real” unemployment rate?
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State measures of labor underutilization: What is the “real” unemployment rate?
17
U. Rate: Wholesale and Retail Trade, USU.Rate: Manufacturing,, USU.Rate: Construction ,US
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Construction and manufacturing industries hit particularly hard
18
Wholesale Trade Employment (Thousands)Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)Construction Employment (Thousands)
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
Construction and manufacturing shed over four million jobs during the recession
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US Wholesale Trade Employment, December 2007 = 100US Manufacturing Employment, December 2007 = 100US Construction Employment, December 2007 = 100
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Nationally, construction employment dropped 25% while manufacturing shed 15% of its employment
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Durable manufactured goods more cyclical than nondurable manufactured goods
Washington Durable Goods Mfg. EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted
Washington Non-Durable Goods Mfg. EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted
10050095Sources: Haver Analytics
280000
240000
200000
160000
120000
80000
40000
280000
240000
200000
160000
120000
80000
40000
21
Mfrs' Shipments: All Manufacturing IndustriesSeasonally Adjusted, Millions $
All Employees: ManufacturingSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands
10050095908580757065Sources: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
Manufacturers shipments have recovered more than employment
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US Wholesale Trade Employment (left)Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
US Merchant Wholesale Sales: (right)Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $
1005009590858075Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
6750
6000
5250
4500
3750
3000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Nationally, wholesale sales have recovered stronger than employment
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All Employees: Wholesale Trade, Washington 3-month avg Change SA
All Employees: Wholesale Trade, Washington 1-month Change SA
1009080706050403020100Sources: Haver Analytics
1200
800
400
0
-400
-800
-1200
1500
750
0
-750
-1500
-2250
Anemic recovery in wholesale trade employment
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Washington state lost 192,700 jobs during the recession (Feb 2008 – Dec 2009)
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, Washington 3-month avg Change, Seasonally Adjusted
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, Washington 1-month Change, Seasonally Adjusted
100908070605040302010099Sources: Haver Analytics
40000
20000
0
-20000
-40000
40000
20000
0
-20000
-40000
25
All Employees: Service-Providing, Washington200712=100
All Employees: Goods-Producing, Washington200712=100
1009080706050403020100Sources: Haver Analytics
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
Within the state, the goods producing industries dropped about one-fifth of their employment
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All Employees: Manufacturing, Washington200712=100
All Employees: Construction, Washington200712=100
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
In Washington, construction lost over 35% of its employment while manufacturing dropped 15%
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These industries may have bottomed out
Washington Professional & Business Svces EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted
Washington: Retail Trade EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted
10050095Sources: Haver Analytics
360000
320000
280000
240000
200000
160000
360000
320000
280000
240000
200000
160000
28
These industries weathered the recession with no major job losses
All Employees: Educational & Health Svcs, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted
All Employees: Information, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted
10050095Sources: Haver Analytics
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
29
US Professional & Business Service EmploymentDecember 2007 = 100
US Retail Trade EmploymentDecember 2007 = 100
1009080706050403020100Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
100.0
97.5
95.0
92.5
90.0
87.5
100.0
97.5
95.0
92.5
90.0
87.5
These industries lost about eight percent of their employment, but business services is stronger lately
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WA Specialty Trade Contractors, Dec. 2007 = 100WA Hvy and Civil Engineering Constr, Dec. 2007 = 100
WA Construction of Buildings, Dec. 2007 = 100
1009080706050403020100Sources: Haver Analytics
105.0
97.5
90.0
82.5
75.0
67.5
60.0
105.0
97.5
90.0
82.5
75.0
67.5
60.0
Washington heavy and civil engineering construction employment may have bottomed out
31
All Employees: Leisure & Hospitality, WashingtonDecember 2007 = 100
All Employees: Educational & Health Svcs, WashingtonDecember 2007 = 100
1009080706050403020100Sources: Haver Analytics
112.5
105.0
97.5
90.0
82.5
75.0
112.5
105.0
97.5
90.0
82.5
75.0
Health services employment remained relatively strong throughout the recession
32 32
Total, all industries - Hires: Washington 4-qtr MovingAverage
090807060504030201009998979695
Source: Haver Analytics
640000
600000
560000
520000
480000
440000
400000
640000
600000
560000
520000
480000
440000
400000
Washington statewide hiring dropped substantially, but did not disappear during the recession
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Washington Hires, Wholesale Trade (4 qtr ave)Washington Hires, Manufacturing (4 qtr ave)Washington Hires, Construction (4 qtr ave)
090807060504030201009998979695
Sources: Haver Analytics
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
Washington labor markets are dynamic -- hiring happens even in the depths of recession
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Washington Local Employment Dynamics: employment and new hires, by sector
Source: Local Employment Dynamics Partnership, US Census Bureau and LMEA, ESD
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Greg Weeks, Email: gweeks@esd.wa.gov(360) 438-4804www.workforceexplorer.com
Thank you for your time and attention. Please direct any additional questions, comments, or suggestions to
me at the email or telephone number below