The three CAFE policy scenarios

Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Wolfgang Schöpp, Fabian Wagner

Assumptions

• CAFE baseline “with climate measures” for 2020

• Agricultural projections without CAP reform

• Further measures for road emissions taken

• Meteorology of 1997

Costs for gap closures between CLE and MTFR

*) excluding costs for road sources

CLEMTFR

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Gap closure between CLE and MTFR

Billion Euro/year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Acidification optimized PM optimized Eutrophication optimized Ozone optimized

Composite gap closure indicatorsSum of gap closure percentages of all environmental end points

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

PM optimized Ozone optimized Acid optimized Eutro optimized Joint optimization

PM Acidification Eutrophication Ozone

Targets selected for the optimization

CLE Case “A”

Case “B”

Case “C”

MTFR

Years of life lost due to PM2.5 (EU-wide, million YOLLs)

137 110 104 101 96

Acidification (country-wise gap closure on cumulative excess deposition)

0% 55% 75% 85% 100%

Eutrophication (country-wise gap closure on cumulative excess deposition)

0% 55% 75% 85% 100%

Ozone (country-wise gap closure on SOMO35)

0% 60% 80% 90% 100%

Emission control costsfor three ambition levels for the four targets*)

*) excluding costs for road sources

0

10

20

30

40

MTFR Case "C" Case "B" Case "A" CLE

Billion Euro/year

PM optimized O3 optimized Acidification optimizedEutrophication optimized Joint optimization

Effects in 2000 and for CAFE medium ambition 2020

PM Eutrophication Ozone

Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat.

Optimized emission reductions for EU-25of the D23 scenarios [2000=100%]

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5

% of 2000 emissions

Grey range: CLE to MTFR Case "A" Case "B" Case "C"

Costs per pollutant for EU-25on top of CLE

0

10

20

30

40

Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" MTFR

Billion Euros/year

Road sources SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM

Measures taken in the D23 medium ambition scenario

• SO2

– Low sulphur coal

– Low sulphur heavy fuel oil

– Flue gas desulphurization

• NOx

– Combustion modifications

– Selective non-catalytic and catalytic reduction

– NOx reduction from light- and heavy-duty diesel vehicles

• PM– High efficiency dedusters

– New boiler types in the residential sector

– Good housekeeping measures on oil boilers

– Low sulphur fuels for (national) sea traffic

Measures taken in the D23 medium ambition scenario

• Ammonia– Application of pig and cattle

manures with low ammonia application measures

– Substituting ammonium nitrate by urea

– Covers on manure storage for pigs and cattle

– Changes in feeding strategies

• VOC – Control of fugitive losses in

organic chemical industry

– Switch emulsion bitumen in road paving

– Paint application (coatings)

– Stage II VOC controls

– Liquid fuel production (improved flare and reduction of fugitive losses)

Distribution of costs[€/person/year]

0

20

40

60

80

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Den

mar

k

Est

onia

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Irel

and

Italy

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mbo

urg

Mal

ta

Net

herla

nds

Pol

and

Por

tuga

l

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

EU

-25

Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) Low ambition Medium ambition

0

20

40

60

80

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Den

mar

k

Est

onia

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Irel

and

Ital

y

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mbo

urg

Mal

ta

Net

herla

nds

Pol

and

Por

tuga

l

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

EU

-25

Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) Low ambition Medium ambition High ambition

*) excluding costs for road sources

Distribution of physical benefitsCAFE Case “B”

% point improvements in total European effect indicators*), sum over four effects

*) between CLE and MTFR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Den

mar

k

Est

onia

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Irel

and

Ital

y

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mbo

urg

Mal

ta

Net

herla

nds

Pol

and

Por

tuga

l

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

YOLL gains Eutrophication Acidification Ozone

Conclusions

• Three cases calculated for three ambition levels: costs of 6, 11 and 15 billion €/year

• For targets on PM, eutrophication, acidification and ozone

• Resulting emission reductions are cost-effective and have equitable distributions of costs and physical benefits