Post on 04-Jan-2016
The Outlook for Ethanol, Corn, and Beef
Chad HartCenter for Agricultural and Rural Development &Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
Iowa State Universitychart@iastate.edu
515-294-9911
Beef Quality Summit: Beef Quality in the Ethanol EraOmaha, NebraskaNovember 8, 2007
Outline
•Look at key variables for ethanol, crops, and beef sectors
•FAPRI March 2007 Baseline
•FAPRI August 2007 Update
Model Interactions
Current ethanol capacity: 131 plants, 6.92 billion gallons/year
Total capacity under construction and expansion: 6.56 billion gallons/year
73 new ethanol plants and 10 expansion projects underway
U.S. Ethanol Industry
2.2 billion bushels of corn were used in producing fuel ethanol in 2006/2007 marketing year.
3.2-3.5 billion bushels of corn are expected to be used in producing fuel ethanol for 2007/2008 marketing year.
Projected U.S. Ethanol Production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2008 2010 2012
billion gallons
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Aug-07 Mar-07
Wholesale Gasoline and Ethanol Prices
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
2006 2008 2010 2012
US$/gallon
Unleaded Gasoline Ethanol
Projected U.S. Corn Acreage
75
80
85
90
95
2006 2008 2010 2012
million acres
75
80
85
90
95
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Corn Production
10
11
12
13
14
15
2006 2008 2010 2012
billion bushels
10
11
12
13
14
15
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Corn Prices
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
3.20
3.25
3.30
3.35
3.40
2006 2008 2010 2012
$/bushel
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
3.20
3.25
3.30
3.35
3.40
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected Utilization of U.S. Corn
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
million bushels
Feed Fuel HFCS Seed Food, Other Exports
Projected U.S. Wheat Acreage
55
57
59
61
63
65
2006 2008 2010 2012
million acres
55
57
59
61
63
65
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Wheat Prices
4.00
4.20
4.40
4.60
4.80
5.00
5.20
2006 2008 2010 2012
$/bushel
4.00
4.20
4.40
4.60
4.80
5.00
5.20
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Soybean Acreage
60
65
70
75
80
2006 2008 2010 2012
million acres
60
65
70
75
80
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Soybean Prices
6.00
6.40
6.80
7.20
7.60
8.00
8.40
2006 2008 2010 2012
$/bushel
6.00
6.40
6.80
7.20
7.60
8.00
8.40
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Soybean Meal Prices
170.00
180.00
190.00
200.00
210.00
220.00
2006 2008 2010 2012
$/ton
170.00
180.00
190.00
200.00
210.00
220.00
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Hay Acreage
60.0
60.5
61.0
61.5
62.0
62.5
2006 2008 2010 2012
million acres
60.0
60.5
61.0
61.5
62.0
62.5
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Distillers Grains Production
15
25
35
45
2006 2008 2010 2012
million tons
15
25
35
45
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Distillers Grains Prices
85.00
95.00
105.00
115.00
2006 2008 2010 2012
$/ton
85.00
95.00
105.00
115.00
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Beef Cows (Jan. 1)
30
31
32
33
34
35
2006 2008 2010 2012
million head
30
31
32
33
34
35
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Cattle and Calves (Jan. 1)
95
96
97
98
99
100
2006 2008 2010 2012
million head
95
96
97
98
99
100
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Beef Production
25
26
27
28
29
30
2006 2008 2010 2012
billion pounds
25
26
27
28
29
30
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Beef Domestic Use
27
27.5
28
28.5
29
29.5
30
2006 2008 2010 2012
billion pounds
27
27.5
28
28.5
29
29.5
30
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Cattle Prices
1100-1300 lb. NE Direct Steers
80
83
86
89
92
95
2006 2008 2010 2012
$/cwt.
80
83
86
89
92
95
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Beef Retail Prices
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
2006 2008 2010 2012
$/lb.
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
Aug-07 Mar-07
Projected U.S. Cow-Calf Net Returns
-50.00
-25.00
0.00
25.00
50.00
75.00
100.00
2006 2008 2010 2012
$/cow
-50.00
-25.00
0.00
25.00
50.00
75.00
100.00
Aug-07 Mar-07
Thank You