Post on 28-Nov-2014
description
1/13/2014
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The Labor Market Situation in December
― January 13, 2014
― Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Chief Economist U.S. Department of Labor
Office of the Chief Economist
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Payroll survey: unexpectedly weak
1-month change, in thousands
• December 87
• November 226
• October 217
12-month change, in thousands
• December 2012 to 2013: 2,211
• Average: 184
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But the longer trend still shows steady growth
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However, still 4.2 million jobs below full employment
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Employment growth by super-sector this month
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Employment growth by super-sector over the year
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Weak data confluence of idiosyncratic factors?
Poor weather:
– Construction down 12,000
Volatility:
– Motion pictures down 14,000
Slow ramp-up to tax season:
– Accounting and bookkeeping down 25,000
Measurement error?
– CPS also showed bad employment data
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Construction employment edged down in December, but is up 122,000 over the year
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Losses in information sector driven by motion picture and sound recording industry
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Unemployment dropped sharply
December 2013 6.7 %
November 2013: 7.0 %
October 2013: 7.2 %
December 2012: 7.9 %
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But fall in LFP explains ⅔ drop in unemployment
December 2013: 62.8 %
November 2013: 63.0 %
October 2013: 62.8 %
December 2012: 63.6 %
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Long-term unemployment rate remains highest since 1983
December 2013: 2.5 %
November 2013: 2.6 %
October 2013: 2.6 %
December 2012: 3.1 %
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Long-term unemployed are less likely to find a job
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Census Poverty Analysis from SIPP
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2004 and 2008 Panel
www.census.gov/sipp/source.html
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Poverty lessons
Very common to fall briefly into poverty
–31.6% at least 2 months 2009-2011
Less common to be always poor (chronic)
–3.0-3.5%
But chronic poor contribute much to total months poverty
Poverty rates rose in recession, especially non-chronic
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Thank you!