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© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au
The Hume Workforce Development Committee
Hume Regional Development Australia
Manufacturing Labour Market SnapshotWorkforce Planning Australia | March 2012
Manufacturing Industry
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The Manufacturing industry includes 6 key sectors:
Source: Manufacturing Skills Australia, Environmental Scan 2012
Manufacturing
Aerospace
Process Manufacturing
Furnishing
Textiles, Clothing
and footwearMetal, Engineering and boating
Laboratory operations
National Industry Overview
Industry Overview
• Australia’s Manufacturing industry plays an important role in the Australia economy. The industry is the countries:
― Largest contributor to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).― Third largest exporter― Fourth largest employing industry (1 million people)
• Industry employment has fallen by 5.7% in the past 12 months (53,800 positions) and is forecast to reduce further over the next 5 years by 3.1% (30,400 positions).•Factors impacting employment in the Manufacturing industry include:
― high value of Australian dollar― overseas competition ― economic turmoil― high levels of regulation― uncertainty about carbon tax
• The industry is experiencing skills shortages mostly in technical and trade areas.• Manufacturing is in a state of transition as products, markets, jobs and enterprises
strive to become sustainable for the long term.• 35% of employees are based outside of state capital cities.
4 |Source: Manufacturing Skills Australia, Environmental Scan 2012
Industry Employment
The Manufacturing industry is the 4th largest industry in Australia employing 945,600 people (8.3 % of the total workforce) across 250,000 enterprises.
5 |Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, February 2012 data. DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011
Industry Employment Level February 2012
Historical Employment GrowthManufacturing
Over the last decade, employment in the Manufacturing industry has decreased by 86,000 (down 8.3%) Australia wide. Employment has fallen by 100,500 over the last three years.
6 |Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data) DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011
Figure: Employment Level (‘000)- 2001-2011
Sectoral Employment inManufacturing
Employment by sector has changed considerably in the five years to August 2011. Food Product Manufacturing is the largest sector accounting for 21.1% of all jobs.Employment has declined in 10 of the 15 sectors over the five years with the largest decline in Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (down 31.8%).
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Figure: Sectors- Employment Growth (‘000) five years to 2011
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data) DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011
Main Employing Occupations
The largest employing occupation in 2010 was Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers, followed by Production Managers and Metal Fitters and Machinists.
8 |Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data); DEEWR projections to 2014-15
Figure: Main Employing Occupations
Manufacturing Employment Prospects
Manufacturing is the only industry in which employment is expected to decline (0.6% annually equating to 30,400 jobs), reflecting sustained overseas competition and more recent strengthening in the Australian dollar.
9 |Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data); DEEWR projections to 2014-15
Sectors- Projected Employment Growth (‘000) – five years to 2015-16
Full-time/Part-time and Gender
86.1% of people employed in Manufacturing work full-time. Higher than all other industries. Female workers are also underrepresented making up just 26.1% of workers.
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Figure: Employment by Gender & Full-time/ Part-time (% share) - 2011
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data) DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011
Drivers of Workforce Change
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Manufacturing
Trading terms
Regulation
Competition for skills
International ContextWorking through
TransitionTechnology
Sustainability
Source: Manufacturing Skills Australia Environmental Scan 2012
There are several drivers of workforce change affecting Manufacturing.
Drivers of Workforce Change
Trading terms― The high Australian dollar, low market demand, high cost of raw materials and global financial turmoil
make turning a profit a challenge.― Minimal fat to take losses.― Competing countries do not have the same regulatory environment, have lower standards of
employment and lower quality products.
Regulation― Keeping up with Regulation is an ongoing concern for manufacturing enterprises. “The compliance
burden associated with business regulation is rising not falling” CEO National Survey on Business Regulation 2011.
― Enterprises find regulation too complex and inflexible. Current requirements act as a constraint on productivity.
― Uncertainty around environmental regulation and carbon pricing.
Competition for skills― Skills shortages remain high following the impact of the GFC, despite an expected decline in
employment. ― Workers are being drawn away by higher-paid jobs in resources with aggressive recruitment
campaigns run Australia wide. ― High skills and labour shortages is leading to a broadening of recruitment focus to include a more
diverse group (e.g. women, indigenous, people with disabilities and skilled migrants)
12 |Source: Manufacturing Skills Australia, Environmental Scan 2012
Drivers of Workforce Change
International Context― Enterprises are impacted by global trade conditions, emerging economies and disasters globally
(impact supply).― Asian alliances are important to Australian manufacturing. Enterprises globally are watching
developing markets in Brazil, Russia, India and Africa.― As cost in China rise it is moving low-value work offshore.― US manufacturing has been gutted with majority of manufacturing moved offshore and shedding of 2
million jobs. But a rebound is occurring in the US with some manufacturing returning.― UK manufacturing is still being impacted by economic turmoil.
Working through Transition― Economic conditions are driving industry restructuring that is forcing enterprises to re-direct and re-
organise their operations. Options include:o Improve efficiencies and make adjustments (right skills)o Moving production overseas, restructuring or refocusing product lines (retrench or retrain)o Demise (early intervention)
― Investment in innovation is required to pursue transition options and discover ways to increase value-add activity and get more from the resources boom.
13 |Source: Manufacturing Skills Australia, Environmental Scan 2012
Drivers of Workforce Change
New and Emerging Technology (demand)― Manufacturing will be hugely impacted by changes in technology (nanotechnology & biotechnology )
and increasing levels of use. ― Support for on-the-job training as a methodology to improve skills. ― There is a growing need to raise the information technology and communication (ICT) literacy and
problem-solving skills. 75% of manufacturing workers did not have adequate problem solving skills. (Australian Literacy and Life Skills Survey.)
Sustainability― Transition to a sustainable future and cleaner, greener products and processes is making progress.― Changes to work practices and implementation of new technologies.― Lean manufacturing practices to reduce waste.― New training packages to skill the workforce in sustainability improvements.― Introduction of carbon pricing.― Need for innovation.
14 |Source: Manufacturing Skills Australia, Environmental Scan 2012
Victoria
Industry Overview (Victoria)
• Manufacturing is the state’s third largest employer with 10.8% of total employment.• There are approximately 16,500 enterprises which employ around 159,000 people .• While the Victorian training budget has increased it has been directed to other sectors
including recreation and fitness (+440%), business and clerical (+94%), tourism (+66%) and wholesale and retail (+62%).
• Manufacturing skills are essential to meet the needs of industry and address Victoria’s growing skill shortages
16 |Source: Manufacturing Skills Australia, Environmental Scan 2012
Skills Shortages in Manufacturing in Victoria 2012
• Australian Government Skills Shortages in Manufacturing in Victoria in 2012― Automotive Electrician― Motor Mechanic(General)― Diesel Motor Mechanic― Sheetmetal Trades Worker― Metal Fabricator― Welder (First Class)― Fitters― Meal Machinist (First Class)― Panelbeater― Vehicle Painter
17 |Source: DEEWR Skills Shortage List, Victoria, Dec 2011
Hume region
What’s happening in Hume in Manufacturing?
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• While manufacturing is declining across Australia and Victoria some sectors within the industry have recorded employment gains. The largest growth has been in the Food Product Manufacturing sector It remains Australia’s fourth-largest employing industry.
• Manufacturing is a significant economic contributor to the region especially around Wodonga and Wangaratta, with manufacturing accounting for a larger proportion of employment in Hume than Melbourne.
• The most employment growth in the last decade has been in manufacturing and construction.
• Manufacturing is a key employer in Lower Hume particularly for residents living in the southern part along the Hume Freeway and who commute to the northern suburbs of Melbourne.
• There are employment vacancies in areas of Central Hume that are proving difficult to fill particularly for skilled manufacturing workers.
• Major food processing companies are located in the Goulburn Valley including SPA Ardmona, Campbell’s Soups and Unilever.
• The Goulburn Valley currently produces 90% of the Hume Region’s agricultural based manufacturing production.
Source: Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities 2010-2012, Skills Vic 2010
Employment in Manufacturing by LGA
Towong143 (2006)
Wodonga3,594 (2006)
Alpine678 (2006)
Mansfield162 (2006)
Hume Region BoundarySub-region BoundaryLocal Government Area (LGA) Boundary
Indigo1,344 (2006)
Murrindindi385 (2006)
Mitchell916 (2006)
Strathbogie523 (2006)
G Shepparton
Moira1,870 (2006)
Wangaratta1,994 (2006)
Benalla1,071 (2006)
4,160 (2006)
xxx (2011)
TBC (2011)xxx 2011
xxx 2011
TBC (2011)
xxx 2011
TBC (2011)
TBC (2011)
TBC (2011)
TBC (2011)
TBC (2011)
TBC (2011)
2006 Census vs. 2011 Census dataTotal Industry
16,841 (2006) 14.3%TBC (2011)
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Employment growth projections in Hume
• According to Monash projections employment is expected to decline over the period to 2016.
21 |Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-616
16.517
17.518
18.519
19.520
20.521
Manufacturing Employment
Employment
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education and Early Childhood development & third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria
Occupation growth
• Monash Projections show some growth in product assemblers, ICT managers, Telecom Engineering Professionals and Metal Casting Tradespersons
22 |Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011Usage is restricted to the Department of Education and Early Childhood development & third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria
Struc Steel & Welding Trades
Struc.l Steel Constn Workers
Supply & Distrib. Managers
Metal Casting Tradespersons
Metal Fitters & Machinists
Telecom Engineering Profs
ICT Managers
Product Assemblers
Plastics Prod. Machine Ops
Keyboard Operators
0 0.02 0.04 0.060.08 0.1 0.120.14 0.160.18 0.2
2010-12015-6
Industry Education attainment levels
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• VET education enrolment data shows an increase in course enrolments for the industry. Growth is being driven by the Cert IV, III, II, I level qualifications
Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Certificate I
Certificate II
Certificate III
Certificate IV
Diploma
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
20082011
Age profile of enrolments
• Across all occupations the majority of VET enrolments are in the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups.
• There has been the greatest growth in VET course enrolments from the 50-54 and 55-59 age groups.
24 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
20082011
Diversity of Enrolments
•There has been an increase in the diversity of enrolments across the industry in Hume.
•The greatest increase has been in the proportion of CALD students.
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Indigenous Disabled CALD0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
20082011
Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Food & Drink Factory Worker
Food & Drink Factory Worker VET Course Enrolments
27 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Certificate I in Food Processing
Certificate II in Food Processing
Certificate III in Food Processing
0200 400 600 800 100
0120
0140
0
20082011
• Enrolments of Food and Drink Factory Workers in Cert I and II in Food Processing has increased from 2008-2011. The Cert III enrolments indicates that this may be a new course or newly required for this group.
Food and Drink Factory Worker Age Profile of VET Enrolments
28 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 & over0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20082011
• The age profile of VET enrolments by Food and Drink Factory Workers indicates an increase in all age groups but particularly in the 45-60 + age groups.
Diversity of Food and Drink Factory Worker VET Enrolments
29 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Disabled Indigenous CALD0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
20082011
• Enrolments of Food and Drink Factory workers from CALD, Indigenous and disabled groups has increased from 2008-2001.
Structural Steel & Welding Trades
Structural Steel & Welding TradesVET Course Enrolments
31 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Certificate III Engineering - Fabrication Trade
Certificate III Engineering - Mechanical Trade
Certificate III Engineering - Technical
0 100 200 300 400
20082011
• Enrolments of Structural Steel & Welding Trades in Cert III Engineering - Technical and Mechanical Trade have slightly increased from 2008-2011.
• Enrolments in Cert III Engineering – Fabrication Trade has decreased by approximately 100.
Structural Steel & Welding Trades Age Profile of VET Enrolments
32 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 & over
0
50
100
150
200
250
20082011
• The age profile of enrolments by Structural Steel & Welding Trades indicates higher enrolments in the 15-24 age groups.
• From 2008 -2011 there has been a slight decrease in the 15-19 age groups and an increase in 20-24 age group.
Diversity of Structural Steel & Welding Trades VET Enrolments
33 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Disabled Indigenous CALD0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
20082011
• Enrolments of Structural Steel & Welding Trades from CALD, Indigenous and disabled groups has increased from 2008-2011.
• There has been a reasonably high increase in disabled workers for this group.
Metal Engineering Process Worker
Metal Engineering Process WorkerVET Course Enrolments
35 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Certificate II in Engineering
Certificate II in Engineering - Production Technology
20082011
• Enrolments of Metal Engineering Process Workers in Cert II Engineering have increased from 2008-2011, while enrolments in Cert II Engineering – Production Technology has decreased.
Metal Engineering Process Worker Age Profile
36 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 & over
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20082011
• The age profile of enrolments by Metal Engineering Process Workers has increased in all age groups except the 15-19 age group.
• Is this to do with changes in VET in schools or school leavers age?
Diversity of Metal Engineering Process Worker VET Enrolments
37 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Disabled Indigenous CALD0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20082011
• Enrolments of Metal Engineering Process Workers from the CALD group has increased from 2008-2011(likely due to funding support).
• Enrolments in Indigenous and disabled groups have decreased from 2008-2011.
Engineering Production Worker
Engineering Production WorkerVET Course Enrolments
39 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Certificate II in Competitive Manufacturing
Certificate II in Engineering Studies
Certificate III in Competitive Manufacturing
Certificate IV in Competitive Manufacturing
0 100 200 300 400
20082011
• Enrolments of Engineering Production Workers in all Certificate courses has increased from 2008-2011.
Engineering Production WorkerVET Enrolments Age Profile
40 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 & over
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20082011
• The age profile of enrolments by Engineering Production Workers has increased in all age groups except the 15-19 age group.
• Is this to do with changes in VET in schools or school leavers age?
Diversity of Engineering Production Worker VET Enrolments
41 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Disabled Indigenous CALD0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
20082011
• Enrolments of Engineering Production Workers from the CALD and disables groups have increased from 2008-2011(likely due to funding support).
• Enrolments in Indigenous has decreased from 2008-2011.
Future direction
What this means?
• National Industry employment has fallen by 5.7% in the past 12 months and is forecast to reduce further over the next 5 years by 3.1%. Despite this decline the Manufacturing industry plays an important role as Australia’s Largest contributor to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), third largest exporter and fourth largest employing industry (1 million people).
• While Industry employment in Hume is expected to decline over the period to 2016 some occupations will experience growth (E.g. Product Assemblers) and / or remain constant.
• There has been increase in course enrolments for the industry in Hume. Growth is being driven by the Cert IV, III, II, I level qualifications.
• The majority of VET enrolments are in the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups. There has been the greatest growth in the 50-54 and 55-59 age groups.
• There has been an increase in the diversity of enrolments across the industry in Hume from 2008-2011. The greatest increase has been in the proportion of CALD students.
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Questions
1. What are the occupations that will experience greatest growth / decline over the next 10 years?
2. What is driving the increase in VET course enrolments over the period 2008-2011 given Manufacturing is a declining industry?
3. What is driving the growth in VET course enrolments in mature aged workers (50-60 years)?
4. What is driving the increase in the diversity of course enrolments? Espcecially in the CALD students?
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