The Human Population:The Human Population:Patterns, Processes, and ProblematicsPatterns, Processes, and Problematics

Lecture #19: Lecture #19: Ch14: DemographicsCh14: Demographics

Paul SuttonPaul Suttonpsutton@du.edupsutton@du.edu

Department of GeographyDepartment of GeographyUniversity of DenverUniversity of Denver

Ch 14: Demographics

• The material covered in Chapters 1-13 can actually be put to practical use.

• People make a living as “Demographers”– Political Planning– Social Planning– Business Planning

Defining Demography

• Demography is a small but significant academic discipline dedicated to discovering new information about population patterns and processes

• Demographics or ‘Applied Demography’ is the process of using existing theory, knowledge, and data to solve real world problems.

Uses of Demographics• Central to the U.S. Political Process

– Census for apportionment & redistricting– Allocation of tax dollars– Social security– Fiscal impacts of immigration– Campaign strategy

• Social Planning– School districting– Crime mapping/resource allocation– Day care provision– Hospital locating

• Business Planning– Marketing– Site selection– Labor pool analysis

GIS and Demography• Data is much

easier to handle and visualize. Dramatic changes taking place in demography as a result of GIS

Marketing to Hispanics in San Diego

Congressional Reapportionment & Redistricting

• State Pop Counts due to president on December 31st of year of census

• 435 congressional seats to allocate to the states• Each State gets at least one house representative.

Then use ‘Method of Equal Proportions’• In 2000 32 of 50 states neither lost nor gained

seats• If # of seats change for a state then redistricting

occurs.

Figure 14.3 What’s wrong with this picture?

So I went to the web site & got a better one

Politics & Choropleth MapsThe famous 2000 presidential Election

Republican ‘Take’Counties won:Gore – 677Bush – 2,434.

Square miles won:Gore – 580,134Bush – 2,427,039

Population of counties won:Gore – 127 millionBush – 143 million

Murder rates in counties won by:Gore --- over 13 per 100,000

Bush --- less than 2 per 100,000

By County

By State

Democratic ‘Take’Gore: 50,158,094Bush: 49,820,518Nader: 2,778,546Buchanan: 445,343

Gerrymandering Image

Gerrymandering II

“Gerrymadering is named after early 19th century MassachussettsGovernor Elbridge Gerry (later a Vice President). Drew districtsTo favor his Federalist party over the Democrat-Republicans”

Campaign Strategy• “The demography of the voting age population

within a political district is a crucial ingredient in winning an election because demographic characteristics such as age, sex, race, likelihood of voting , and to some extent political preferences.”

• Candidates are “packaged and sold” just like consumer products based on demographics.

• Demographics is the key element to understanding the electoral process and likelihood of winning an election.

Legislative Analysis• “Demographic change bears directly on the formulation

of social policy because it determines in a large part whose income or wealth is redistributed to who.”

• Baby boomers in 1970’s caused inflation• Govt. Policies tried to create more jobs for swelling labor

force• The baby boom retiring…

– That’s why 401K’s were created and allowed– That’s why Social Security is such a big deal– That a reason we have lax immigration policy

Social Planning: Education• Declining enrollment• Increasing enrollment• Shifting enrollment• Do you close some schools and open new ones

elsewhere? If so, what do you do with the closed schools?– College enrollments– Baby boomlets– Aging neighborhoods

Social Planning: Health Services

• Illegal Immigration and Emergency rooms in Private Hospitals. (Regionally serious problem)

• Aging Population and changes to health care services.

• Private – Public Disconnect a big problem

Social Planning: Criminal Justice

• Stephen Leavitt’s Controversial explanation for reduced crime rates in the early 1990’s

Demographic considerations for policy development and evaluation.

Social Planning: Transportation

Business Planning• “When it comes to understanding today’s consumer maketplace, just about

the only thing that’s certain is that uncertainty reigns. The speed of technological change, the volatile global economy, the emergence of media-savvy, ever-more-demanding customers – all have coalesced into the blur that characterizes business-as-usual at the end of the century. “Grappling with uncertainty in business planning requires more than guesswork”, warns business guru Peter Drucker. “It requires looking at what has already happened that will create the future. The first place to look,” says Drucker, “is in demographics”

• Marketing Demographics• Cluster Marketing• Site Selection (location, location, location)• Investment Demographics• Human Resource Demographics

Marketing Demographics and Segmentation

• “Demographics are used to segment and target the market for a product, and this approach has become so populatr that it has eve been suggested that a television program’s demographic base now determines its commercial success “far more than sheer audience numbers” Segmentation refers to the manufacturing and packaging of products or the provision of services that appeal to specific socio-demographically identifiable groups within the population. “consumer markets are segmented on the basis of such demographic variables as geographic location, rate or product usage, income, age, sex, education, stage in the family life cycle, religion, race and social class. Industrial markets are segmented demographically according to such variables as geographic location, kind of business, rate of product usage, and size of user. Automobile manufacturers are most famous for segmenting the market and producing different cars to appeal to different categories of people.”

The Ford Mustang (“a demographic product”)

• “Our market research showed that the youthful image of the new decade had afirm basis in demographic reality. Millions of teenagers, born in the postwar baby boom, were about to9 surge into the national marketplace. Here was a market in search of a car. Any car that would appeal to these young customers had to have three main features: great styling, strong perfomance, and a low price.” Lee Iacoca

What can you learn from this figure?

Demographics and TV• What commercials would you expect to see on:

– Sesame Street?– NFL Football games?– Friends?– Oprah?– McNeil-Lehrer News Hour– Sponge Bob Square Pants (this might surprise you)

Marketing and the Age Structure

• “People at different ages have different needs and tastes for products and differing amounts of money to spend” (duh…?)

• Baby Stuff Sellers– How many babies born in a give year?– Birth Order– Where are the grandparents?

Religious Planning

There are lots of companies that do this. There are jobs in this field.

Marketing to teenagers• 1980’s babies (Generation ‘Y’ or Millenials ?)• Parents spend the money on education &

entertainment• As the children age they have more control over

the money• Money money than earlier generations because of

smaller family size & increasing wealth• Big products: Food, entertainment, sports,

clothes, …COLLEGE

Middle Age Marketing(The Baby Boomers Now)

• Lasik Surgery• Walking (not running) shoes• SUVs• Non Fat Foods

The Young Old (65-74)

• Leisure Travel• Watches with Big #s on the dial• Health Services• Retirement Property

Racial Marketing• U.S. African American market is wealthiest

& 4th largest in world behind Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa. (35 million)

• Hispanic Market soon to Pass African-American in the U.S.– Mexican-American Los Angeles– Cuban American Miami– Puerto Rican New York• Asian – American Market growing