Post on 30-Dec-2015
description
EN 3 • 19/04/23 • © Astrium 1
The future role of The future role of satcom in civil aviationsatcom in civil aviationATN 2002, London, September 25th, 2002ATN 2002, London, September 25th, 2002
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20022
Challenges for the air transport industry – 1
1) Capacity of overall ATM “system” limits air traffic growth:
• 2015: twice as many flights as in 1997
• Already today: 30% of all delays due to capacity shortages
• Yearly cost for capacity-related delays: €6.3bn
2) Safety demands will rise with capacity increases:
• Despite air traffic growth: absolute number of incidents must be kept stable or even improved
• No additional airspace capacity without improved safety
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20023
Challenges for the air transport industry – 2
3) Economic pressures leading to drive for efficiencies:
• Seat utilisation
– Strongly linked to safety and security
• Minimisation of flight times, fast turnarounds
– Maximise use of all resources (runways, terminals, airspace, ATC, spectrum….)
• Optimum routes
• Optimum flight levels
4) Security pressures cyclic depending on world political situation:
• On-board security
• Homeland security
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20024
Cockpit services
Cabin services
ATC
AOC
AAC
APC
Classification of aircraft communications
“AirComms”
Air Traffic Control
Airline Operational Communications
Airline Administrative Communications
Airline Passenger Communications
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20025
Increasing confidentiality
Increasing public responsibility
Increasing integrity
Lower transmission delay
Lower message size/data volume
Higher service cost
Increasing likelihood of service
Comparison of aircraft communications
Cockpit Cabin
ATS AOC AAC APC
“Aircomms” LegendATS - Air Traffic ServicesAOC - Airline Operational Comm’sAAC - Airline Administrative Comm’sAPC - Airline Passenger Comm’s
narrow-band broadband
public private
safety related non-safety related
all airlines airline internal
realtime n./a.“near-realtime”
mass marketniche market
“ATM comms”
market success questionablestrong need
“APC comms”
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20026
Future importance of aircraft communications
In the future, there will be more communications from and to the aircraft.• Passenger communications
To make flying more attractive, airlines will sooner or later offer:– Telephony (Voice, Fax, Modem, ...)– E-Mail, Internet– Multimedia, live TV, ...
• Air Traffic ManagementTo increase airspace capacity and safety, much more data communications will be needed, e.g. for:
– Dependent surveillance methods– Collaborative decision making– Common information network– Airline operational communications
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20027
Satcom for aviation
Coverage• Satellites are the only reasonable means to realise a seamless global
coverage on all altitudes (incl. ground)• Issues: High density areas, coverage for high latitudes
Bandwidth• APC: satellites are the only reasonable means to provide the
bandwidth required• ATM: Traditional communication means (e.g. VHF) are about to reach
their capacity limitsCost
• Added value must be higher than cost
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20028
Satcom in APC
Today:• Inmarsat and Iridium used (mainly for voice)• High price, very low bit rate for modem connections
Under development:• Connexion, AFIS, Inmarsat IV• Very hot topic until Sept. 11th 2001, “comeback” expected
Future visions:• “Internet in the sky” (e.g. E-Mail, VPN)
– Could become successful if price < 10€/flight (flat rate)• Voice communications
– Could become successful if price < 2€/min (=GSM incl. roaming)• Entertainment, e.g. live TV
– Success uncertain due to legal and market issues
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20029
Suitability of APC satcom systems for ATM
• Bandwidth (+)– Bandwidth required for ATC, AOC (and AAC) is negligible compared to APC
• Probability of materialisation (-)– It is not yet certain whether dedicated APC satcom systems will materialise within
the next 10 years
• Coverage (-)– All satcom systems for APC are GEO systems that do not provide coverage for
high latitudes.
• Cost (-)– Reliability and availability requirements of ATM would lead to very high
investments
• Service Mix (-)– Mixing safety related and non-safety related services has implications for
certifiability
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 200210
Satcom in ATM
Today, the following requirements for an ATM communications system are known:
• Permanent global availability, special weight on high-density areas• Extremely high reliability• Low data rate• Often short response times• “Party line” capabilities• “Air-to-air” capabilities
Ways to attack the cost issue:• “Design-to-cost” • Reasonable business concept on the other hand
– Attractive service mix– Public involvement justified
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 200211
Satellite-based CNS
• Satellites allow integration of navigation and communications and thus (dependent) surveillance
• In the field of navigation, users have been quick to embrace satellite technology thanks to GPS
– Galileo offers a model of the future – “compatible” with GPS, but providing design, operational and institutional redundancy (prerequisite for certifiability) together with better service quality
• Are similar models applicable to communications and surveillance?– Gate-to-gate communications and surveillance are both essential for accurate 4D
trajectory based management– ATS communications traffic is only a small proportion of the total– Wide mix of public and private operators today
The issues are complex and there are no easy answers!The cost-benefit ratio must be proven in high-density areas.
© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 200212
Key to success?
Many good technologies have come and gone and not been adopted; they have usually failed on:
• Transition planning – how to get from the old to the new
• Unproven benefit to cost ratio
t
old
new
tra
nsiti
on
Motto: “Evolutionary approach to a revolutionary system”
Some lessons from history:• The old and the new must be able to operate alongside each
other
• A clear transition path from old to new must be mapped
• The new must offer clear benefits and be affordable
• Payback to the airlines for their investment must be within 2-3 years
• The solution must be global (European / U.S cooperation essential)