The Future of ScholarlyPublication and Communication

Martin GrötschelKonrad-Zuse-Zentrum für Informationstechnik and

Technische Universität Berlin, Germany

May 7, 1999

Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

ContentsContents

Technological Developments, their Impact on Communication, Visions

Searching for Contents, Fears, Transition Crisis

Observations: Where is the Publication Crisis? The Players: Intentions and Obstacles The Challenges: How do the Sciences Act?

Contents - 1Contents - 1

Technological Developments,

their Impact on Communication,

Visions

Current Technological DevelopmentsCurrent Technological Developments

Computer speed Storage growth Network bandwidth Internet growth Cost reduction

Exponential growth

Bright future

Visions from thePITAC - Report to the President

Visions from thePITAC - Report to the President

Information Technology Research:

Investing in Our Future

President's Information Technology Advisory CommitteeReport to the President, February 24, 1999

www.ccic.gov

1.1 Transforming the Way We Communicate

1.2 Transforming the Way We Deal With Information

1.3 Transforming the Way We Learn

1.4 Transforming the Practice of Health Care

1.5 Transforming the Nature of Commerce

1.6 Transforming the Nature of Work

1.7 Transforming How We Design and Build Things

1.8 Transforming How We Conduct Research

1.9 Transforming Our Understanding of the Environment

1.10 Transforming Government

Information Technology:Transforming our SocietyInformation Technology:Transforming our Society

1.1 Transforming the Way We Communicate

1.1 Transforming the Way We Communicate

Vision: At least one billion people worldwide can access the Internet simultaneously and engage in real-time electronic meetings, download the daily news, conduct secure financial transactions, or talk to friends and relatives around the world. This can be done regardless of the language the participants speak, since language translation can be done instantaneously, and regardless of physical limitations of the individual, because devices can accept and provide input and output in many different ways.

1.2 Transforming the Way We Deal With Information1.2 Transforming the Way We Deal With Information

Vision: An individual can access, query, or print any book, magazine, newspaper, video, data item, or reference document in any language by simply clicking a mouse, touching a computer screen, talking to a computer, or blinking an eye. Individuals can easily select among modes of presentation: data, text, images, or audio. Information can be referenced and derivations can be incorporated in many new ways, adding value and revealing insights through networked and software-enabled tools. Entertainment can be richer and more personalized, enabling individuals to access music, videos or live events that appeal to them.

1.3 Transforming the Way We Learn

1.3 Transforming the Way We Learn

Vision: Any individual can participate in on-line education programs regardless of geographic location, age, physical limitation, or personal schedule. Everyone can access repositories of educational materials, easily recalling past lessons, updating skills, or selecting from among different teaching methods in order to discover the most effective ways of learning. Educational programs can be customized to each individual's needs, so that the information revolution reaches everyone and personal digital libraries provide a mechanism for managing ones accumulated knowledge resources. Learning involves all our senses, to help focus each student's attention and better communicate educational material.

1.4 Transforming the Practice of Health Care 1.4 Transforming the

Practice of Health Care Vision: Telemedicine applications are commonplace.

Specialists use videoconferencing and telesensing methods to interview and even to examine patients who may be hundreds of miles away. Computer-aided surgery with Internet-based video is used to demonstrate surgical procedures to others. Powerful high-end systems provide expert advice based on sophisticated analysis of huge amounts of medical information. Patients are empowered in making decisions about their own care through new models of interaction with their physicians and ever-increasing access to biomedical information via digital medical libraries and the Internet. New communications and monitoring technologies support treatment of patients comfortably from their own homes.

1.5 Transforming the Nature of Commerce1.5 Transforming the Nature of Commerce

Vision: Any company can be easily reached by its customers, regardless of location. It can receive immediate customer feedback, and rapidly adjust marketing strategies, prices, or product inventories based on that feedback. Consumers can shop for the best products, services, and prices from the convenience of their hotel room, home, or office. Electronic purchases can be made securely and with total privacy, providing suppliers and retailers with immediate access to cash generated by sales and consumers with automated statements detailing spending and purchases that allow for improved personal financial management.

1.6 Transforming the Nature of Work

1.6 Transforming the Nature of Work

Vision: The workplace is no longer confined to a specific geographic location, as workers can easily access their tasks and colleagues from alternate locations or while en route. Workers can do their jobs without regard to physical proximity to major metropolitan areas. They can choose where they live based on nearness to family or lifestyle preference rather than job market opportunities. A highly flexible workplace is able to accommodate each individual's needs, from working parents to workers with disabilities.

1.7 Transforming How We Design and Build Things

1.7 Transforming How We Design and Build Things

Vision: Products and structures, from the highly complex, such as automobiles and buildings, to those used in everyday life, such as consumer appliances and fashion, can be designed with computer simulations that accurately represent the physical properties of the systems being built. Designers, manufacturers/builders, suppliers, and end-users participate in the design process, providing one another immediate feedback. Multiple designs and manufacturing processes can be rapidly explored yielding safer products, higher quality, and lower costs.

1.8 Transforming How We Conduct Research

1.8 Transforming How We Conduct Research

Vision: Research is conducted in virtual laboratories in which scientists and engineers can routinely perform their work without regard to physical location -- interacting with colleagues, accessing instrumentation, sharing data and computational resources, and accessing information in digital libraries. All scientific and technical journals are available on-line, allowing readers to download equations and databases and manipulate variables to interactively explore the published research.

1.9 Transforming Our Understanding of the Environment

1.9 Transforming Our Understanding of the Environment

Vision: Information technology can help us to improve a variety of problems from water and air quality to controlling the effects of toxic material. For example, reliable climate models permit us to determine the rate and regional distribution of climate change to support accurate projections by sector and region. Sophisticated models accurately predict the response of ecosystems to changes in temperature, water availability, and atmospheric composition. Fully integrated models allow scientists and policy makers to consider information on climate trends, population trends, resource utilization, and the value of natural and economic resources when making decisions regarding technically feasible and cost-effective options to reduce environmental impacts or adapt to climate change.

1.10 Transforming Government1.10 Transforming Government

Vision: Government services and information are easily accessible to citizens, regardless of their physical location, level of computer literacy, or physical capacity. Intelligent systems guide citizens by providing a one-stop shopping experience for locating requested information. Documents and forms can be accessed, completed, and submitted electronically. Automated business processes allow nearly instantaneous response to citizens' requests. In times of natural emergencies, emergency crews have instant access to three-dimensional building models, risk analysis and assessment, high-resolution local weather predictions, stress analyses of damaged structures, rapid evacuation planning tools, and emergency agency coordination.

PITAC CommitteePITAC Committee

Co-Chairs

Bill Joy (Sun)

Ken Kennedy (Rice Univ)

Members: Eric A. BenhamouVinton Cerf, Ph.D.Ching-chih Chen, Ph.D.David M. Cooper, Ph.D.Steven D. DorfmanDavid W. DormanRobert H. EwaldDavid J. FarberSherrilynne S. Fuller, Ph.D.Hector Garcia-Molina, Ph.D.Susan L. Graham, Ph.D.James N. Gray, Ph.D.W. Daniel Hillis, Ph.D.Robert E. Kahn, Ph.D.John P. Miller, Ph.D.David C. NagelRaj Reddy, Ph.D.Edward H. Shortliffe, M.D., Ph.D.Larry SmarrJoe F. ThompsonLeslie VadaszAndrew J. ViterbiSteven J. WallachIrving Wladawsky-Berger

Impact on CommunicationImpact on Communication

Personal E-mail Newsgroups and mailing lists Internet archives Software exchange Data transport

Encourages speed-up, growth, quality increase,etc. in (group) communication.

Phantastic!

Newspapers and Journals:Newspapers and Journals:

Hypertexts allow new quality of reading Multimedia revolutionizes teaching Best courses/lectures available in the Internet Search engines help find everything Latest scientific news at your fingertips

Everything accessible from everywhere at any time by everybody!

TRUE?

Contents - 2Contents - 2

Technological Developments, their Impact on Communication, Visions

Searching for Contents, Fears, Transition Crisis

SearchingAltaVista, Excite, InfoSeek, HotBot, etc.

SearchingAltaVista, Excite, InfoSeek, HotBot, etc.

Extensive search results: Covering gigantic amounts of digital material But essentially only based on "words" within texts Often resulting in huge lists of unstructured search

results without "quality aspects"

SearchingSearching

What does science need? Subject specific results

(say, references to material in mathematics only)

Very problem specific results (say, references to graph theory or coloring theory only)

Immediate access to abstracts and full texts (Quality Guarantee)

SolutionSolution

Put all literature (and everything else) into the Internet!

Is it there? Is it accessible?

Why Not?

A new market develops The rules of the new market have not

emerged yet Every player is afraid of losing its power

and market share

We are in a "Transition Crisis"We are in a "Transition Crisis"

authors readers publishers libraries

database providers distributors financial funding

institutions

The players of the old publication markethave not found their new rules:

Some FearsSome Fears

Authors distribute directly to readers, eliminating everybody else (LANL server in physics)

Publishers offer books and journals electronically, from their own archives, making libraries obsolete (E-Journals from Elsevier Science Direct, Springer Link)

Scientific libraries publish literature produced in their institutions, making publishers obsolete(HighWire Press)

One virtual book shop eliminates all other book shops(Amazon.com)

The Web and its search engines make databases superfluous (Alta Vista)

Contents - 3Contents - 3

Technological Developments, their Impact on Communication, Visions

Searching for Contents, Fears, Transition Crisis

Observations: Where is the Publication Crisis?

Some ObservationsSome Observations

Despite electronic hype, paper prevails The number of books and journals increases Publishers go bankrupt and/or merge Purchasing power of library budgets shrinks Electronic journals are not catching on

At the same time,Information Flood & Information Shortage

In the USA and, between the consumer price index increased by the cost of monographs increased by the price of health care increased by the cost of sholarly journals increased by the price of subscriptions to online

databases grew even more rapidly, in the most notorious case by over in a single year

Looking at PricesLooking at Prices

1986 and 199644 percent

62 percent

84 percent

148 percent

350 percent

From: To Publish and Perish,Policy Perspectives, Co-sponsored by ARL/AAU/PEWSpecial Issue, March 1998, Volume 7, Number 4www.arl.org/scomm/pew/pewrept.html

Looking at Libraries

Massive cancellations of serial subscriptions Specialized libraries/collections Interlibrary loan - instead of buying books Remote collections - instead of local archives Consortia: Purchase alliances for E-Journals

Looking at PublishersLooking at PublishersSecond, inflexible pricing strategies led to a 50 percent decline in personal subscriptions in the last twenty years.... As a result, publishers lost billions of dollars in annual revenue, which they recovered by raising the price of subscriptions to libraries at a rate greatly exceeding inflation.

from "Designing Electronic Journals with 30 Years of Lessons from Print" [Tenopir/King 1999]

Looking at Funding InstitutionsLooking at Funding Institutions

Deterioration of local investments (interlibrary loan instead of purchase, administration and transport costs instead of books)

Transition to external archives (LOC, OCLC, publishers instead of libraries)

individual -> library -> consortium -> ?bookshop -> publisher -> publishing empire -> ?

Continuous erosion of the library as a local information provider

Looking at the ReaderLooking at the Reader

The scientific reader (in the paper world) must expect to buy more and more literature on his own to spend more time on searching to wait longer for articles and books to miss the access to an increasing number of

older/sold-out documents and books

A Summarizing View (of the Paper World)

A Summarizing View (of the Paper World)

The price spiral has resulted in publishers losing circulation scientists spending more time on obtaining articles libraries paying more fees for fewer journals funding sources becoming uncertain over their

allocation of funds

That lose-lose-lose-lose pricing situation happened gradually and the parties do not seem to know how to reverse it.

[ARL/AAU/PEW 1999]

So,why don't we go

electronic?

So,why don't we go

electronic?

Contents - 4Contents - 4

Technological Developments, their Impact on Communication, Visions

Searching for Contents, Fears, Transition Crisis Observations: Where is the Publication Crisis?

The Players: Intentions and Obstacles

Motives and Intentions for participating in the scientific publication market

Obstacles against the move into the electronic world

Intentions/Obstacles: The ReaderIntentions/Obstacles: The Reader

Readers are the group of persons for which the publication systems are designed (Really?)

does not want to read from screen, readers require paper pleasant interface looks for high quality, new and original ideas, filtered and

certified information (to save time) wants information immediately at the desk

What does the reader provide? payment (sometimes) acknowledgement (that's what the author longs for)

Intentions/Obstacles: The AuthorIntentions/Obstacles: The Author

wants to distribute his ideas wants to communicate with his peers and colleagues looks for acknowledgement (from his competitors) intends to establish priority looks for an item on his curriculum vitae for promotion seeks for prestige and reputation

is afraid that his ideas are stolen/copied in the Internet fears to loose his advantage wants to earn some money (?)

Intentions/Obstacles: The PublisherIntentions/Obstacles: The Publisher

make profit being attractive for good authors

paper publication system has a long history copy right

Intentions/Obstacles: The LibrarianIntentions/Obstacles: The Librarian

provide the scientist/student an excellent service help find items classification, archiving, indexing, retrieval keep his job administer a big budget have a beautiful building

electronic media can be accessed without the librarians help

Intentions/Obstacles: The EditorIntentions/Obstacles: The Editor

wishes to define what quality is wants to serve the community and execute power hopes to obtain reputation/prestige wishes to earn some money (?)

electronic media may do without him

What is the Real "Ware"?

Reader gives Interest, receives Originality Author provides Quality, gets

Acknowledgement Publisher provides Dissemination, gets Profit Librarian provides Access, gets Budget Editorprovides Quality, gets Influence

Money and ware are decoupled to a great extent.Primary exchange object:

Prestige, ReputationPrestige, Reputation

Summarizing ViewSummarizing View

Money and commercial value is by far not the only driving force

prestigevanity influencequality aspects

are of at leastequal importance

Summarizing ViewSummarizing View

For a successful move into the electronic world we have to introduce the sametrusted structurereward system

and providesuperior services

Contents - 5Contents - 5

Technological Developments, their Impact on Communication, Visions

Searching for Contents, Fears, Transition Crisis Observations: Where is the Publication Crisis? The Players: Intentions and Obstacle

The Challenges: How do the Sciences Act?

What is being done?What is being done?

IuK-Initiative of Learned SocietiesMathNet IMU CEIC

Die IuK InitiativeInformation und Kommunikation

der wissenschaftlichen Fachgesellschaften in Deutschland

Die IuK InitiativeInformation und Kommunikation

der wissenschaftlichen Fachgesellschaften in Deutschland

elfikom.physik.uni-oldenburg.de/IuK/

MathNet: A Network for Mathematics

Prototype developed in Germany atKonrad-Zuse-Zentrum für Informationstechnik (ZIB)

and several participating mathematical departmentswww.math-net.de

Now to be extended to a worldwide system

supported by the International Mathematical Union (IMU)

Prototype developed in Germany atKonrad-Zuse-Zentrum für Informationstechnik (ZIB)

and several participating mathematical departmentswww.math-net.de

Now to be extended to a worldwide system

supported by the International Mathematical Union (IMU)

Vision

Mathematical information at your fingertips

World wide electronic information and communication system(for mathematics to support research and teaching)

Aims of the MathNet Project

Distributed, electronic information and communication system for mathematics: user-driven and user-friendly high quality

Basis: local electronic information offers

provided by the mathematical departments Central navigation and retrieval system for a

more precise browsing and search

Technical Standards

Openness (technical and organizational)

Use of international standards (Internet, WWW)

Remote Examination

MathNet project partner MathNet participant

MathNet Database

Putting it all together

Usage of a (MySQL) database for storing the links from the local MathNet page of each institution

Access via the MathNet Navigatorbrowsing and accessing each institutioncreate virtual views

Structuring Local Information

Short-term solution: Local MathNet Guide

Long-term solution: Use of Metadata Principle: the authors add some data to their

information (Metadata), e.g., author, title, MSC-classification.

Who encodes Metadata in digital Documents ?

The author of the document is willing to spend a little bit more time to write good and correct metadata (e.g. MSC-Class)

Implementation of suitable tools that help the author prepare the required metadata

Bringing it together

Harvest is a distributed search system Harvest evaluates DC-metadata Harvest allows a fulltext search

Harvest consists mainly ofgatherer broker

Harvest Architecture

Broker

departmentalbroker

regionalbroker

Germanbroker

Gatherer

WWWServer

FTPServer

Summarizer(Index)

Europeanbroker

IMUbroker

of the MathNet

Statistics

MathNet: 64 German/Austrian Mathematical Department

Preprints (MPRESS/MathNet.preprints: Germany, Austria, France, LANL, plus ...) ca. 36.000 (115 servers) ca. 10.000 with Dublin Core Metadata

Challenges

TechnicalNetwork connectivity and bandwidth

OrganizationalLocal personal infrastructure and stability

www.math-net.de

Building on the enabling resolution passed by the General Assembly

in Dresden on August 16, 1998, the Executive Committee of the

International Mathematical Union etablishes a

Building on the enabling resolution passed by the General Assembly

in Dresden on August 16, 1998, the Executive Committee of the

International Mathematical Union etablishes a

Committee on Electronic Information and Communication (CEIC)

of the International Mathematical Union (IMU)

Terms of Reference (a)Terms of Reference (a)

The CEIC shall be a standing committee of the Executive Committee

(EC) of the IMU, to be reviewed every four years by the EC at its

meeting preceding that of the GA. Members will be appointed for four year terms by

procedures identical to those for its Commissions. The Executive Committee will appoint one of its

members to serve on the CEIC.

Terms of Reference (b)Terms of Reference (b)

The CEIC may meet as necessary in each four year period, review the development of Electronic Information

and Communication as it impacts the international mathematical community and

submit a report to EC.

Terms of Reference (c)Terms of Reference (c)

The CEIC may organize or sponsor international meetings or

forums to bring together representatives of all interested parties, including societies, publishers, libraries, and researchers.

publish and otherwise disseminate proceedings, reviews of recent developments, and technical surveys for the use of the mathematical

community.

Terms of Reference (d)Terms of Reference (d)

The CEIC may recommend international standards on issues

related to electronic communication. Such recommendations should be reviewed by the

EC and, if approved, may be published and promoted in the name of the IMU.

Terms of Reference (e)Terms of Reference (e)

During its first 4 year term, the CEIC is specifically asked to address the coordination of world-wide efforts to establish web-based servers for

mathematical papers, preprints, journals and books.

This includes issues of uniformizing metadata, document identifiers and supported formats,

promoting mirroring and the development of search engines for mathematical material and coordination of existing servers.

It should publish its findings with the goal of making the use of these servers universally understood and usable by the whole mathematical community.

It is also asked to consider tranferring the World Directory of Mathematicians to an electronic freely accessible form.

Membership: * Peter Michor, chair, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Peter.Michor@esi.ac.at * Jonathan Borwein, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada; jborwein@cecm.sfu.ca * John Ewing, American Mathematical Society, Providence, USA; jhe@ams.org * Jonas Gomes, IMPA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; jonas@impa.br * Wilfrid Hodges, Queen Mary & Westfield College, London, UK; w.hodges@qmw.ac.uk * Martin Groetschel, EC member, Konrad-Zuse-Zentrum, Berlin, Germany; groetschel@zib.de * David Morrison, Duke University, Durham, USA; drm@math.duke.edu * Zhou Qin, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; * Alf van der Poorten, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia; alf@mpce.mq.edu.au * Alexei Zhizhchenco, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia;

Terms of Reference (f)

Final SummaryFinal Summary

The great perspectives are not so brightmany roadblocks

But joint worldwide efforts of individuals/learned

societies/libraries (+publishers) can establish a very useful electronic information and communication system for the sciences

To include hypertexts, images, pictures,

sound, music, multimedia documents, and similar technologically advanced documents, a big leap is still necessary. Prototyping is current game

The sciences are moving more slowly than one should expect. The Humanities creep.

We are transcending boaders. Nobody knows the new territory!

Personally, I am optimistic!