THE FUTURE IS HERE

THE FUTURE OF BANKING

AGENDA 1. Introduction

2. How we work

3. Macro-trends

4. Trends

5. Springboards

INTRODUCTION

ANY QUESTIONS?JAMES@THEFISH.CO / @JAMESWALLMAN

HOW WE FORECAST

William Gibson

“The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed.”

HOW WE FORECAST

1. Understand the macro-trends

HOW WE FORECAST

1. Understand the macro-trends

2. Investigate the innovation

HOW WE FORECAST

1. Understand the macro-trends

2. Investigate the innovation

3. Use Diffusion of Innovations curve

HOW WE FORECAST

1. Understand the macro-trends

2. Investigate the innovation

3. Use Diffusion of Innovations curve

STORY OF THE SALAD

In 2002-3, McDonald’s shares fell 56%

First quarterly loss since 1954

Then, McDonalds pushed healthy eating

Next, 36 consecutive months of sales growth

The learning: salads sell burgers and fries

THE FUTURE OF BANKING

Challenger Banking report, Burnmark

“The perfectly timed external forces coming from demographic, social, economic and regulatory phenomena have contributed to

arguably the biggest revolution in the banking world in centuries”.

Bill Gates

“Banking is necessary. Banks are not.”

MACRO-TRENDS

PLANET OF THE PHONES • iPhone launched 2007

• 7.6bn people on Earth, 5.5bn over 14

• 5bn mobile phones, 3bn smartphones

• 700m iPhones, 1.8bn Google Androids, 500m Chinese Androids

Source: Benedict Evans, partner, a16z

TECHNOLOGICAL TIMES

• AI & ML

• AR & VR

• IoT

• Blockchain

Vtime is the VR social network, with more than 0.5m downloads

EVOLUTION OF CAPITALISM

• From scarcity to abundance

• From mass produced to mass customised

• Experientialism

• Sharing economy

• The platform modelMalibu Dream Airsteam on Airbnb

HERE COMES EVERYBODY

Competition can come from anywhere today.

• GAAFA entering financial services

Dyson will invest £2bn and release an EV in 2020

WHAT BARRIERS TO ENTRY?

• New EU and UK regulations is reducing barriers to entry.

• In the UK, Open Banking…

• In the EU, PSD2…

• Banks now have to open up their data via APIs so that other financial services firms can access client data

ACCELERATING CHANGE “The pace of

technological change [is] making heads

spin”. The Economist

TRENDS

FINTECH EXPLODING

Money is pouring into fintech firms.

• £524m in the UK

• £3.6bn in California

• £1.4bn in New York Source: Burnmark

OPEN BANKING Smart banks are embracing open API banking.

• Saxo Bank opened up their APIs in 2015, so that partners, customers, and fintechs can create new ways of optimizing their trading experiences

• solarisBank wants to enable “n-to-n relationships between all parties”

HERE COMES EVERYBODY

• Challenger banks

• N26

• Monzo

• Neo-banks

• Moven

• Holvi

• Non-banks

Valentin Stalf, CEO & co-founder, Number26

“We try to reimagine how a bank should work and we tried to build something that is like using Uber or Spotify or any of these

apps you love to use.”

Brett King, CEO, Moven

“[Millennials] think of banking like they do apps: ‘What’s the best app or product or service to solve this problem I have right now — whether that’s paying off a student loan or

buying a new car or buying a home or getting insurance?’ They’re starting to cherry-pick these services.”

BORDERLESS BUSINESS

In our connected world, borders are less important.

• BBVA’s Holvi

• Transferwise’s new “borderless account”

GAAFA FINANCE • 1/5 Europeans would

use financial products from Google, Facebook, and Amazon

• Google and Facebook let users send money to friends by email

Source: Fujitsu

Starling Bank is available via Google Home

NON-BANKS The long-tail of financial services.

• Monese

• Metromile

• Myloo

NON-BANKS The long-tail of financial services.

• Monese

• Metromile

• Myloo

FREE-CONOMIC BANKING

The long-tail of financial services.

• Revolut: zero-fee foreign money card

• Robinhood: free tracking and trading

Chris Anderson’s book heralded a new price.

A.I.F.A.s Artificial intelligence financial advisors make managing money easy.

“An independent, universal banking app for my generation and anyone else who wants to make their money work harder for them.” Ed Maslaveckas, founder, Bud

A.I.F.A.s • Bud

• Pocketbook

• Tink

• YOLT

• Mint

NEXT GENERATION

A.I.F.A.s A new band of fintech startups is actively advising its users.

• FutureAdvisor

• Moola

• BettermentIn Her, Theodore Twombly’s AI is

talking to 841 other people, and is in love with 641 other people.

BLOCKCHAIN BANKING

“Blockchains could greatly reduce the time, cost, and risk of many transactions… every aspect of banking… three business areas with the highest benefits [are] reference data, retail payments and consumer lending.” IBM & The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

SPRINGBOARDS

HOW MIGHT WE…CREATE NEXT GENERATION UX?

HOW MIGHT WE…DEVELOP NEXT GENERATION A.I.F.A.s?

HOW MIGHT WE…DISRUPT OUR OWN BUSINESS?

THE FUTURE OF BANKING

THE FUTURE IS HEREJAMES@THEFISH.CO / @JAMESWALLMAN