SCARBOROUGH PROFILE Understanding and explaining poverty in Scarborough & Northern Scarborough (East Steeles Nexus) John Stapleton Open Policy Updated January 2019

Acknowledgements • This slide show would not be possible without the strong

assistance of: • J. David Hulchanski and Richard Maaranen

Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto)

• Harvey Low: City of Toronto • Jordan Raghunandan: USTC student • Mimi Lau: Scarborough Community Renewal

Organization • Yvonne Yuan (Open Policy)

The East Steeles Nexus 2

Scarborough 23 % of City Population

ESN and NIA 3

1970-2015: CHANGE OVER TIME From Neighbourhood Change CURA

The East Steeles Nexus 4

The East Steeles Nexus 5

1980: 3 poverty pockets

The East Steeles Nexus 6

1990: Kingston road & Housing

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1995: central & north Scarborough

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2000: Scarborough part of City 3

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2005: Very low poverty for 1st time

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2007most tracts in poverty

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2010: Only near the lake not in poverty

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2012: Unbroken line of poverty away from the lake

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2015: Deep Poverty in Scarborough north emerges

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The East Steeles Nexus 15

JOBS 2006-2016

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The East Steeles Nexus 17

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A CLOSER LOOK Scarborough

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November 1, 2017 20

Working Poverty in Scarborough is concentrated in Northern Scarborough

The East Steeles Nexus 21

• Working poverty in the East Steeles Nexus is unbroken from the 404 to Scarborough Pickering Town Line

Working Poverty in Markham is in south perched on Steeles

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Highest concentration of working poor in York Region is in the East Steeles Nexus

SUBSIDIZED HOUSING IN SCARBOROUGH

The East Steeles Nexus 23

ESN and NIA 24

ESN and NIA 25

ESN and NIA 26

DOUBLE OR NOTHING! NO NIA’S IN NORTH SCARBOROUGH Poverty and Neighbourhood Improvement Areas in Toronto

The East Steeles Nexus 27

Neighbourhood improvement areas noted in light blue –Toronto only

Toronto East Steeles Nexus

(None)

The East Steeles Nexus 28

ESN and NIA’s

ESN and NIA 29

City of Toronto: Low after tax and shelter cost income

in poorest 48 neighbourhoods (All NIA’s are in poorest 48)

ESN and NIA 30

Blue: NIA’s. Yellow: Non NIA low income

The East Steeles Nexus 31

Double or nothing? • Double or nothing refers to the evidence that most NIA’s

are concentrated in neighbourhoods with much more subsidized housing units

• Areas with subsidized housing have higher after shelter income .

• The poor who live in unsubsidized housing have less after shelter income than the poor who live in subsidized housing

• But almost all the NIA funds go to neighbourhoods with subsidized housing because they are poorer.

The East Steeles Nexus 32

Why no NIAs in North Scarborough? • ESN is slightly richer than the NIA’s but poorer than the

rest of Toronto

The East Steeles Nexus 33

Double or Nothing: East Steeles Nexus subsidized housing 1/3 or less than NIA’s –

lowest in City

ESN and NIA 34

Total yearly income and yearly after rent incomes of Ontario Works, ODSP recipients and seniors living in subsidized (RGI) apartments in Ontario. All tenants assumed to have no outside or work income Family configuration

and Program Basic needs or

seniors benefits + Tax Credits

Social assistance or seniors’ RGI rent

Total yearly Income

Percentage of income spent on

Rent

OW single $5,131 $1,020 $6,151 16.6%

1+1 $12,859 $2,232 $15,091 14.8%

1+2 $20,129 $2,712 $22,841 11.9%

1+3 $27,473 $3,228 $30,701 10.5%

OW and ODSP rates differ along with their designated RGI rents.

ODSP single $8,979 $1,308 $10,287 12.7%

ODSP couple $12,543 $2,388 $14,931 16.0%

In seniors’ calculation below: seniors’ income does not add to rent

Senior Single $21,146 $6,344 $21,146 30.0%

Senior Couple $32,687 $9,806 $32,687 30.0%

The East Steeles Nexus 35

NIA, Housing and the ESN District Total

Population Low Income Population

Social Housing Units

SHU per Total Population

SHU per Low-income Population

ESN (8) 265,794 68,830 4,382 1.65% 6.37%

All NIA (31) 615,133 176,510 30,170 4.90% 17.09%

Scarborough NIA (8) 182,441 53,490 10,036 5.50% 18.76%

Non Scarborough NIA (23) 418,995 124,520 19,896 4.75% 15.98%

Toronto (140) 2,731,571 583,070 89,752 3.29% 15.39%

Data Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2016; Low-Income Measure After Tax (LIM-AT), Taxfiler data (T1FF), 2012 from Statistics Canada; Soc

ESN and NIA 36

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Scarborough

ESN and NIA 37

Total yearly income and yearly after rent incomes of Ontario Works & ODSP recipients and seniors living in subsidized (RGI) apartments vs. tenants in the private market. Compares rents at SA maximums and at 50% of total income Family configuration and Program

Total yearly

Income in RGI

housing using S.A.

rental scale

Basic needs or seniors

benefits + tax

credits in private market

After rent

income in RGI

After rent income in

private market

rental at SA maximums

Difference in after rent

incomes private vs RGI rental

At SA maximums

After rent

income in private

market rental where rent is 50% of income

Difference in after rent

incomes private vs RGI rental

where private rent

is 50% of income

Monthly rents at 50% of total

income (private rental)

OW single $6,151 $9,811 $5,131 $5,229 +$98 $4,906 -$225 $409 1+1 $15,091 $20,503 $12,859 $12,794 -$65 $10,252 -$2,607 $854 1+2 $22,841 $28,493 $20,129 $20,116 -$13 $14,247 -$5,882 $1,187 1+3 $30,701 $36,545 $24,473 $27,482 +$3,009 $18,273 -$6,200 $1,523 ODSP single $10,287 $14,943 $8,979 $8,981 +$2 $7,472 -$1,507 $623 ODSP couple $14,931 $21,915 $12,543 $12,535 -$8 $10,956 -$1,587 $913 Note Below: seniors’ incomes do not relate to social assistance maximums Senior Single $21,146 $21,146 $14,802 n/a n/a $10,573 -$4229 $881 Senior Couple $32,687 $32,687 $22,881 n/a n/a $16,343 -$6,538 $1,362

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Housing Affordability: Paying more than 30% for rent

Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough Only)

The East Steeles Nexus 39

Higher Household size in East Steeles Nexus

Toronto by Household Size East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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Housing suitability

Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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Rooming houses are illegal in Scarborough & Markham Toronto’s Legal Rooming houses Rooming house pilot in East

Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only

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Rooming Houses illegal in Scarborough and Markham • Rooming house illegality may be contributing to the

proliferation of rooming houses • With housing and rental demand at all time highs, illegal

rooming houses can act freely as tenants encouraged to stay quiet.

• Illegal operators don’t report their rental for taxation periods and have greater control over tenants who face eviction if they raise issues

• Many Illegal operators prefer illegal status as they are not required to make needed repairs or report income.

• Those found to be illegally operating see it as the price of doing business in a highly lucrative market

• 2:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. parking bans have little or no effect in Scarborough and increase poverty by forcing working families out of Scarborough.

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DATA APPENDICES

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NEW IMMIGRANTS & REFUGEES Appendix 1

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Visible Minorities

Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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ESN has highest concentration of visible minorities

83.40%

63.75% 68.04%

63.27%

51.50%

9.03% 10.62% 7.30%

11.02% 6.88%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

ESN (8) All NIA (31) Scarborough NIA (8) Non Scarborough NIA (23) Toronto (140)

Immigration Status

Visible Minority (%) Recent Immigrants (%)

ESN and NIA 47

Refugees since 1980

Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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Non –official mother tongue

Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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No knowledge of French or English

Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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TRANSPORTATION Appendix 2

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Getting to work takes longer: percentage of commutes taking longer than 45 minutes

Mid Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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High and Low Percentages of 45 minute commute times

Mid Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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Leaving earlier… Commute by Departure Time Mid Toronto

Leaves later – travels less East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough Only)

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Average Travel times in minutes: Public Transit

Toronto Scarborough

No data for East Steeles Nexus

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Map of average travel time in minutes Public transit

Mid Toronto East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only)

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Subway Lines (noted in red)

Toronto

East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough map but includes Markham)

The East Steeles Nexus area has no subway or LRT service

The Stouffville GO train has three stops in the Nexus: Milliken, Agincourt and Unionville

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North-South 400 Series Highways GTA and East Steeles Nexus

GTA (6) East Steeles Nexus (0)

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VOTING PATTERNS Turnout and comparisons

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INCOMES & RELATED DATA Appendix 3

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Food Bank visits are rising

Toronto Scarborough (No data for East Scarborough nexus)

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Toronto’s highest growth in Food Bank Visits in 3 East Steeles wards

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The surge in Food Bank Visits in Scarborough

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THANK YOU Questions?

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