Post on 18-Dec-2015
The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy
Security
Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.)
Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationOctober 16, 2007
Calgary, Alberta
Accenture Energy Advisory Board
Accenture Energy Advisory Board
The Challenge of Climate Change 2
MenuMenu
U.S. Climate Science, Technology, and Policy
State of the Science U.S. Climate
Initiatives “20 in 10” Plan Climate Change
Technology Program Energy Policy Act of
2005 Advanced Energy
Initiative 110th Congress
Post-Kyoto Framework: New International Directions
Major Economies Meeting
UNFCCC and the Montreal Protocol
Technology Transfer Adaptation Strategies
GEOSS
The Challenge of Climate Change 3
State of the ScienceState of the Science
Bottom Line: there is general scientific agreement that anthropogenic activities are increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and driving climate change.
Areas of Uncertainty: Sensitivity of global systems to increased GHG
emissions Impacts of identified regional climate changes Timing of impacts and rate of changes Magnitude of changes and impacts at specific scales
Research: research is crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change and guiding public policy.
Climate Change Science Program—World’s largest climate science research Program. Funded at approximately $1.7 billion/year ($10.7 Billion 2002-2006).
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U.S. Climate InitiativesU.S. Climate Initiatives
20 in 10 Reduce U.S. gasoline consumption
by 20% in 10 years Promote alternative fuels Increase CAFE standards
Climate Change Technology Program Multi-agency research and
development program; funded at approximately $3 billion/year
Goals include: Reducing emissions from
energy use and supply Capturing and sequestering
CO2
Improving capability to measure & monitor GHG
Energy Policy Act of 2005 $10 billion in clean technology
tax incentives Requires use of 7.5 billion
gallons of renewable fuel (ethanol and biodiesel) to be used in gasoline by 2012
Provides 30% tax credit for installation of alternative fuel stations (up to $30,000/year).
Federal Energy Management Plan Federal Government is the
largest energy consumer in U.S. Plan promotes energy efficiency
and use of renewable energy resources at federal sites.
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U.S. Climate Initiatives:Advanced Energy Initiative
U.S. Climate Initiatives:Advanced Energy Initiative
Fueling Vehicles Develop advanced battery
technology for plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (40 mile range solely on battery charge)
Make cellulosic ethanol competitive with corn-based ethanol by 2012
Make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles widely available by 2020.
Powering Homes & Businesses Clean coal technology
FutureGen: public-private partnership to develop technologies for coal-fired power plants that capture and store CO2, rather than release it into the atmosphere
Develop a Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, and improve the domestic regulatory process
Reduce the cost of solar and other renewable energy sources.
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion
Hydrokinetic Offshore windHydrokinetic
GeneratorKinetic Energy Systems
Offshore Wind FarmNantucket
Two pronged approach: (1) change the way vehicles are fueled; and (2) change the way homes and businesses are powered.
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Climate Bills in the 110th Congress
Climate Bills in the 110th Congress
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Stabilization TriangleStabilization Triangle
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative, The Stabilization Triangle: Tackling the Carbon and Climate Problem With Today’s Technologies. Available at http://www.summits.ncat.org/docs/Wedges_Concept_Game_Materials_2005.pdf
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Today’s Technology
Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation
Coal-Fired Power Plants
Build 1,000 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants (in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO2 capture and storage)
Geologic Sequestration
Install 3,700 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project (0.27 MtC/year)
NuclearBuild 500 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)
EfficiencyDeploy 1 billion new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg
Wind EnergyInstall capacity to produce 50 times the current global wind generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)
Solar PhotovoltaicsInstall capacity to produce 1,000 times the current global solar PV generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)
Biomass fuels from plantations
Convert a barren area about 15 times the size of Iowa’s farmland (about 30 million acres) to biomass crop production
CO2 Storage in New Forest
Convert a barren area about 30 times the size of Iowa’s farmland to new forest
*Giga-Tonnes = 109 Metric-Tonnes (1000 Kilograms) **See CCTP Strategic Plan p. 38.
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How Big is a Gigaton*?Using Today’s Technology, These Actions Can Cut
Emissions by 1 GtC/Year**
How Big is a Gigaton*?Using Today’s Technology, These Actions Can Cut
Emissions by 1 GtC/Year**
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The Post-Kyoto Framework:New International
Directions
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The Future of International Climate Policy
The Future of International Climate Policy
President Bush’s Vision has 3 Components: Create post-2012 framework among major economies by
the end of 2008 Strengthen U.N. climate initiatives Advance global adoption of clean energy technologies
The new direction in climate policy must enhance energy security and promote economic development.
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Post-Kyoto Framework:Major Economies Meeting
Post-Kyoto Framework:Major Economies Meeting
17 major economies represented, including the U.N.
Launched process to identify long-term global GHG emissions reduction goals (e.g., 2050).
Discussed commitments to national mid-term goals with binding elements (e.g., 2020, 2030), according to national circumstances.
Each country to establish its own targets, goals, and programs that are binding domestically.
Discussed need to harmonize emission measurement and accounting systems.
Participants focused on five key areas: low carbon fossil power generation, transportation, land use, market penetration and energy efficiency, and finance.
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Post-Kyoto Framework:Major Economies Meeting
Post-Kyoto Framework:Major Economies Meeting
Key Points for a long-term GHG reduction goal: Guided by Article 2 of the UNFCCC; Science-based; Underpinned by environmentally effective and measurable near-
and mid-term actions; Take into account countries’ differing circumstances and common
but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities; Understand the future availability of key low carbon technologies,
and the feasibility of delivering technologies at different scales and time periods;
Take into account the costs of adaptation in the context of broader development strategies.
Take into account historical cumulative emissions, per capita emissions, and development needs of developing countries.
Next Steps The participants agreed that there is value in convening another
meeting of Major Economies after the U.N. climate meetings in Bali.
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Post-Kyoto Framework:UNFCCC & The Montreal Protocol
Post-Kyoto Framework:UNFCCC & The Montreal Protocol
Conference of the Parties in Bali, December 2007
Report outcome of Major Economies Meeting
New MEM Framework will Reinforce Existing Work Programs in the U.N.
Land Use Sustainable forest and agricultural
management, stop deforestation and illegal logging
Adaptation Build on international development principles
Technology Sharing and Energy Efficiency Tools to open and accelerate markets for
technology
Montreal Protocol Parties recently agreed to accelerate
deadlines for phasing out HCFCs.
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Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum: focused on CO2 capture & storage.
International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy: organizes, coordinates, and leverages hydrogen R&D programs.
Generation IV International Forum: devoted to R&D on next generation of nuclear systems.
ITER: project to develop fusion as a commercial energy source.
Methane to Markets: recovery and use of methane from landfills, mines, oil and gas systems, and agriculture.
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development & Climate: accelerates deployment of technologies to address energy security, air pollution, and climate change.
Global Bioenergy Partnership: Italian G8 initiative to support wider, cost effective, biomass and biofuels deployment, particularly in developing countries.
Global Nuclear Energy Partnership: U.S. initiative to develop worldwide consensus on enabling expanded use of economical, carbon-free nuclear energy to meet growing electricity demand, using a nuclear fuel cycle that enhances energy security and promotes non-proliferation.
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Post-Kyoto Framework:International Partnerships
Post-Kyoto Framework:International Partnerships
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Post-Kyoto Framework:Technology Transfer
Post-Kyoto Framework:Technology Transfer
Developing Nations Must be Part of the New Equation!
Develop Transformational Technology Increase global R&D funding and cooperation
Expand Low-Cost Finance Options Focus existing development resources and
private resources Consider new low-cost capital sources to
finance investment in transformational technologies (e.g., development banks, OPIC)
Transfer Technology Globally Eliminate tariffs and remove non-tariff barriers
to cleaner energy and environmental technologies and services
Launch global effort to share government-developed and owned technologies at low or no cost
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Government Energy R&D in Selected Industrialized
Countries,1974-2004
Government Energy R&D in Selected Industrialized
Countries,1974-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
mill
ion
s, $
US
200
4
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
US
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
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Post-Kyoto Framework:Adaptation Strategies
Post-Kyoto Framework:Adaptation Strategies
CarbonTrackerEl Nino Forecast
“It may be too late to avoid dangerous climate change…reducing carbon dioxide emissions is part of the solution. Another part is adaptation, but we haven't addressed that.”
Claude Mandil, Former IEA Executive Director
The world’s climate will continue to change for the next 50 years, regardless of any mitigating efforts we make now.
The lag in the climate system makes adaptation essential, particularly in addressing near-term impacts.
Sound adaptation policies must rest on sound science. We need better data for better decision making.
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Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
A distributed system of systems Improves coordination of observation
systems Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and
satellite networks Identifies gaps in our global capacity Facilitates exchange of data and
information Improves decision-makers’ abilities to
address pressing policy issues
GEONetCast Worldwide information distribution
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Why Earth Observations?Why Earth Observations?
Prediction Worldwide agricultural benefits of better El Niño forecasts are
conservatively estimated at $450-$550 million/year Annual costs of electricity could decrease by $1 billion if we
could improve the accuracy of weather forecasts by one degree Fahrenheit. (Source: USA Today)
Prevention More than 90% of natural disaster-related deaths occur in
developing countries.
Preparedness More than 50% of the world’s population lives within 60 km of
the shoreline; this could rise to 75% by the year 2020.
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The Path ForwardThe Path ForwardEconomic growth, sustainable development, energy security, and climate change can and must be pursued in an integrated manner. Therefore, we need:
A visionary long-term approach, based on innovation, growth, and international cooperation;
Leadership from developed nations and meaningful participation from developing nations;
A variety of near-term actions, augmented
by financial incentives; Increased investment in clean energy
technology; and A recognition that one size won’t fit all:
national/regional strategies are needed.
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Questions?
Additional Slides
The Challenge of Climate Change 23
World CO2 Emissions:2003-2030
World CO2 Emissions:2003-2030
Source: Energy Information Administration, 2006 International Energy Outlook
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Energy Market Share by Source
Energy Market Share by Source
38.8%
22.6% 22.4%
8.2% 6.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Nuclear ElectricEnergy
Renewable Energy
Source: Energy Information Administration, at http://www.eia.doe.gov\basics\energybasics101.html
The Challenge of Climate Change 25
Energy Consumption By Sector
Energy Consumption By Sector
28.3%
21.6%
10.6%
39.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Transportation Industrial Residential/Commercial Electric Power
Source: Energy Information Administration, at http://www.eia.doe.gov\basics\energybasics101.html
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U.S. Energy Trends Through 2030
U.S. Energy Trends Through 2030
Projected Population Increase: 23 %
Projected Energy Consumption Increase: 31%
Biofeuls and other nonhydroelectric renewables projected to grow rapidly
Sales of alternative vehicle technologies will account for nearly 28% of new light duty vehicle sales
However, oil, coal, and natural gas still projected to supply 86% of U.S. energy in 2030
Imports of energy will constitute 32% of total U.S. energy demand
Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007). These projections are from the “reference case,” which assumes that current energy policies impacting the sector remain unchanged throughout the analysis period. See http://www.eia.doe.gov/
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Cost:Potential 100-Year Reductions
Cost:Potential 100-Year Reductions
Comparative Analysis of Estimated Cumulative Costs Over the 21st Century of GHG Mitigation, With and Without Advanced Technology, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints
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Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE), Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis ofAdvanced Technology Scenarios. Available at http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/data/publications/CCTP_Final_Report_041007.pdf
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Scale of Biomass Land AreaScale of Biomass Land AreaLand Use Scenario ~550 ppmv
From Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Unmanaged Ecosystems
Managed Forests
Crop Land
Pasture Land
BioEnergy