Post on 21-Jul-2020
Center for Crops Utilization ResearchAACC International
October, 2010
The BioeconomyThe Bioeconomy2010 and Beyond
Larry JohnsonDirector Center for Crops Utilization ResearchDirector, Center for Crops Utilization Research
Director, BioCentury Research Farm
Wh t i th Bi ?What is the Bioeconomy?
The bioeconomy is the way society will obtain vital sources of carbon and energy, in the process dramatically reduce our dependence on imported petroleum.
Agriculture will make this transformation ibl b idi bi blpossible by providing biorenewable
resources to produce biofuels and biobased d tproducts.
Motivation for a BioeconomyMotivation for a Bioeconomy• Excess agricultural production
– Especially in U.S., but many countries are becoming self sufficient in food production
• Environmental quality– Local and regional (smog, acid rain, waste
disposal)– Global climate change
• National security– Reduced reliance on foreign cartels
• Rural developmentRural development– Rural economies are not thriving in many
parts of the world• High petroleum prices• High petroleum prices
– Now makes economic sense Source: USDA NRCS
New Realities in Corn and Petroleum Prices
June 28, 2008$147/b l
Summer, 2010$70-85/brl
$147/brl
June 28, 2008
Summer, 2010$3.35-3.90/bu
Ju e 8, 008$7.88/bu
What has Changed in Relative Prices of Petroleum to Corn?
Summer 2010$80/brl ÷ $3.60/bu = 22 bu/brl
Ethanol Plants
203 operating
Expanding/New constructionCurrently in production
Map as of May 2008 data as of May 2010 p g11 under construction
Map as of May 2008, data as of May 2010Data from Renewable Fuels Association
US Ethanol ProductionProduction
12 billion gal = 4 3 billion bu
Est. 12 billion gal in 2010;we have 14 billion gal capacity
12 billion gal = 4.3 billion bu 4.3 billion bu out of a 13 billion bu harvest = 33% of crop
Corn Utilization40% of40% of
Iowa corn convertedto ethanolto ethanol
Provisions of the 2007 Energy Independence & Security Act
RFS2RFS2
RFS1RFS1
Corn Ethanol Profitabilityy
Data provided by C. Hart, CARD, ISU
Biofuels HaveBiofuels HaveEndured Many Charges
• Negative energy balance• Little impact on fuel consumption• Not enough corn and soybeansNot enough corn and soybeans• Corn and soybean prices are rising• Food vs fuel, we are starving the
worldworld• Ethanol uses too much water• Rain forests are being destroyed
N l d b ht i t d ti• New land brought into production exacerbates carbon emissions
• Depleting CRP and wildlife habitat• Ethanol is unsustainable
10 Key Messages
Message 1Science and engineering will make
biofuels more cost effective.biofuels more cost effective.
Ethanol has a positive (30%) renewable f l t f il ifuel-to-fossil energy gain –
But we can do better!
2
2.5
tio
Agri Canada
Shapouri et al. Kim & DaleGraboski
Shapouri et al
NR Canada
1
1.5
rgy
Rat
W i bl tt t l Ho
Marland & Turnhollow
DelucchiShapouri et al.
K & D L
Lorenz & MorrisWang et al. Wang
Pi t l
Shapouri et al.Kim & Dale
Average of unrelated studies = 1.3
0.5
1
Ener
Chambers et al.
Weinblatt et al. Ho
PimentelKeeney & DeLuca
PimentelPimentel
PatzekPimentel & Patzek
01975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year of Publication
Adapted from Wang (2005)
Energy Efficiency of Oil gy yRefining and Electric Power
Gasoline 84%
Energy valuesolid < gas < liquid < electricity
Modern power
Coal $1/106 BTUNatural gas $12/106 BTU
$ 6plant 33%
Early refining
Gasoline $23/106 BTUElectricity $2,700/106 BTU
Not all BTUs are equal!refining 20%
Not all BTUs are equal!
Adapted from: RBAEF Project (Dartmouth) and R. Anex (ISU)
Dry-Grind Ethanol Yields(industry average)
Source: R. Wisner, Iowa State University
Many Opportunities toAdvance Grain-based EthanolAdvance Grain based Ethanol
Debran (ethanol) and degerm (oil
New hybrids (more yield, easier processing, better co-products)
Debran (ethanol) and degerm (oil, pharmaceuticals), better co-product for poultry and swine; CO2 screw pressing; corn germ protein food ingredients
Eliminate by using raw starch (ultrasonics, new hybrids, ozonation)
New enzymes (more complete hydrolysis)
CO2 screw pressing
De-emulsification,3-phase centrifugation (oil)
2 p gNo-distillationfermentation
Fungal fermentation (feed, water recycle)
Zein extraction
Expanding and extraction (biodiesel, biolubricants, neutraceuticals)Biocomposites
M 2Message 2U S food has been and still is inexpensiveU.S. food has been and still is inexpensive.
It is not about food vs fuel.
Expenditures ofDisposable Income for Food
Food23 5%
Food9.8%
23.5%
1947 2007All other All thAll other77.5%
All other91.2%
US Spending on Food vs GasolineUS Spending on Food vs. Gasoline
Source: Newsweek, July 21, 2008
Ethanol Effect on Gasoline Prices
Source Cost Savings
Ethanol Effect on Gasoline Prices
Source Cost Savings from Ethanol
USDA/DoE 20 35 centsUSDA/DoE 20 – 35 cents per gallon
CARD 29 40CARDIowa StateU i i
29 – 40 cents per gallon
UniversityMerrill Lynch 50 cents per
gallon
Food and Fuel not Food vs FuelGasoline savings per household due to ethanol (29 to 40¢/gal): $210 to $526Fuel ethanol (29 to 40¢/gal): $210 to $526
Added cost to food due to impact of ethanolon food inflation: $6 to $15Food
Net impact of ethanol on household spending:$ $
Source: USDA and ISU statistics; June 2008.
$204 to $511
Message 3Farmers deserve a larger share of food and
fuel dollarsfuel dollars.
Cost of Corn in Corn Flakes• Corn• Corn
represents 13¢ of a13¢ of a $3.25 box of corn flakes when corn costs $7 00/b$7.00/bu
• Probably less thanless than energy costscostsSource: ISU Extension