The Best-Laid Plans of Mice and Men; Katrina

The Lessons of Space and Time

James E. Mitchell, Ph. D.IT GIS Manager

Hurricane GeorgesSeptember 1998

Venezuela

Colombia

Mexico

Guyana

Cuba

Canada

Suriname

Nicaragua

Honduras

Guatemala

Haiti

French Guiana

Panama

Costa Rica

Brazil

Belize

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Jamaica

Puerto Rico

Trinidad & Tobago

The Bahamas

Guadeloupe

Martinique

Dominica

St. LuciaBarbados

GrenadaAruba

Netherlands Antilles

Virgin Is. Antigua & BarbudaCayman Is.

Anguilla

St. Vincent & the Grenadines

Turks & Caicos Is.

British Virgin Is.

Bermuda

New Orleans

Hurricane IvanSeptember 2004

Venezuela

Colombia

Mexico

Guyana

Cuba

Canada

Suriname

Nicaragua

Honduras

Guatemala

Haiti

French Guiana

Panama

Costa Rica

Brazil

Belize

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Jamaica

Puerto Rico

Trinidad & Tobago

The Bahamas

Guadeloupe

Martinique

Dominica

St. LuciaBarbados

GrenadaAruba

Netherlands Antilles

Virgin Is. Antigua & BarbudaCayman Is.

Anguilla

St. Vincent & the Grenadines

Turks & Caicos Is.

British Virgin Is.

Bermuda

New Orleans

Hurricane DennisJuly 2005

Venezuela

Colombia

Mexico

Guyana

Cuba

Canada

Suriname

Nicaragua

Honduras

Guatemala

Haiti

French Guiana

Panama

Costa Rica

Brazil

Belize

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Jamaica

Puerto Rico

Trinidad & Tobago

The Bahamas

Guadeloupe

Martinique

Dominica

St. LuciaBarbados

GrenadaAruba

Netherlands Antilles

Virgin Is. Antigua & BarbudaCayman Is.

Anguilla

St. Vincent & the Grenadines

Turks & Caicos Is.

British Virgin Is.

Bermuda

New Orleans

Evacuation Routes Around theNew Orleans Metropolitan Area

Lafourche

St. TammanyLivingston

Tangipahoa

Terrebonne

Plaquemines

St. Bernard

Jefferson

Iberville

St. CharlesAssumption

Ascension

Orleans

East Baton Rouge

St. James

WashingtonSt. Helena

St. Mary

East Feliciana

St. Martin

St. John the Baptist

West Baton Rouge

Iberia

£¤90

£¤61

£¤190

£¤190

£¤190

§̈¦10

§̈¦55

§̈¦12

§̈¦59

§̈¦310

§̈¦510

§̈¦610

GIS Analysis to Develop aStaged Evacuation Plan

Evacuation Phases Based on GIS Analysis

One Million Guides Distributed

2005 LouisianaEmergency Evacuation Plan

1. 72 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Stage Assets and Personnel

2. 50 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase I

3. 40 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase II

4. 30 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase III - Contraflow

5. 6 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Terminate Contraflow – Secure Assets and Personnel

2006 Emergency Evacuation Plan

H-66 MOU with DOE Activated for school buses (if necessary)

H-60 LANG Provides 100 bus drivers (if necessary)

H-54 All Coaches at Staging Areas and are proceeding to Parish Pick Up Points

H-50 Phase I Evacuation Implement Waterways/Bridges Emergency Plans Coordinate Evacuation plans with neighboring states

H-40 Phase II EvacuationProvide evacuation information to ESF 15 Mobilizing Contra-flow resources

H-30 Phase III Implement Contra-flow Bus operations cease

H-24 Shut down of Staging Areas Completed

H-6 Contra-flow resources are secured

H-120 Monitoring the StormAlert DistrictsReview Plans & ProceduresDOTD EOC - Partial Activation

H-102 Mobilize Coach and Pet Transportation and Staging AreasDOTD EOC – Selected support agency representatives activated

H-96 Staff State EOCContra-flow, Levee, Waterway/Bridge Coordinators on AlertImplement LOOP Emergency Plan

H-94 Staging Areas Operational

H-90 Coaches begin arriving

H-72 Fully staff DOTD EOCDamage Assessment & Contra-flow plans activatedDOTD instructs contractors to clear construction projects on evacuation routes. Monitoring of Transportation InfrastructureCalculate and estimate the potential amount of debrisStaff State Police Traffic Control Center

HURREVACStorm Forecasts to Support Emergency Management

H-120Monitor storm, alert Districts, review plans,

and partial Activation of DOTD EOC

LNew Orleans

TropicalDepression #12

Mexico

Cuba

Canada

The Bahamas

H-102Mobilize Coach and Pet Transportation and Staging Areas, activate selected DOTD EOC support agency

representatives

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

H-96Staff State EOC, alert Contra-flow, Levee, Waterway & Bridge Coordinators implement LOOP Emergency Plan

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

H-72Fully staff DOTD EOC, activate Damage Assessment &

Contra-flow plans, instruct contractors to clear construction projects on evacuation routes, monitor

transportation infrastructure, estimate potential amount of debris, staff State Police Traffic Control Center

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

H-60LANG Provides 100 bus drivers (if necessary)

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

H-54All Coaches at Staging Areas and

are proceeding to Parish Pick Up Points

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

H-50Phase I Evacuation

Implement Waterways and Bridges Emergency Plans Coordinate evacuation plans with neighboring states

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

H-40Phase II Evacuation

Provide evacuation information to ESF 15Mobilizing Contra-flow resources

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

H-30Phase III Evacuation

Implement Contra-flow Bus operations cease

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

New OrleansMexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

(

Mexico

Cuba

GuatemalaHonduras

Canada

Belize

Jamaica

Nicaragua

The Bahamas

Haiti

Cayman Is.

H-6Contra-flow terminated and resources secured

What Really Happened?-120

-110

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

32

Plan Actual

H-49.5 - Initiation of DOTD Emergency Operations (H-72)

H-28 - Phase I Evacuation (H-50)

H-25 - Phase II Evacuation (H-40)

H-21 - Phase III Evacuation (H-30)

H+4 - Contra-flow Ceases (H-6)

ResultsThe Most Successful Evacuation of a

Major Metropolitan Area in History

• 1.38 Million People Evacuated

• 66 Hour Plan Completed in 43.5 Hours– 10 Hours of Contra-flow Added

• No Major incidents to Impede Operation– Breakdowns– Out of Gas– Crashes– Medical Emergencies

Conclusions

• Timelines are Important!– They provide a single procedure to coordinate multiple

participants– They provide guidance for what to do now, and what to do next– They provide a context for drills to practice response– They provide a yardstick for progress during an event

• Flexibility is Important!– Timeline boundaries must build-in some “play” to allow for

dynamic situations– Missing a milestone does not mean failure– Timelines can be slowed or accelerated to meet situational

needs