Post on 05-Sep-2020
Analyst Meeting 17 May 2013
The Bangchak Petroleum PLC.
World Oil Situation
1Q 2013 Highlights
Financial Performance
2013 Overview
Agenda
2
World GDP Growth Outlook
Global economic prospects have improvedagain but the road to recovery in theadvanced economies will remain bumpy(U.S. fiscal problems and uncertainty inEuro zone problems). Lower outlook in OECD countries asGovernment spending cuts in the US andthe Euro zone problems. However, IMF welcoming the BOJ'saggressive new monetary stimulus.
Source : IMF, Apr 13
(%)
3.2 3.3 4.0
2.2 1.9 3.0
-0.6 -0.3 1.1 2.0
1.6 1.4
7.8 8.0 8.2
4.0 5.7 6.2
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2012 2013 2014
World
US
EU
Japan
China
India
5.7
8.0
1.6
-0.3
1.9
3.3
5.9
8.1
1.2
-0.1
2.1
3.5
India
China
Japan
EU
US
World
Previous Current
2013
6.2
8.2
1.4
1.1
3.0
4.0
6.3
8.5
0.7
1.1
3.1
4.0
India
China
Japan
EU
US
World
Previous Current
2014
3
Oil Market Outlook: Demand
89.78 90.60
91.82
88.5089.0089.5090.0090.5091.0091.5092.00
2012 2013 2014
Africa
2012
2013
Europe
Source : IEA, May 2013
*Include Biofuel Demand
Global Oil Demand Growth (KBD)
Global Oil Demand* 2012-2014 (MBD)
+1.22, 1.35%
+0.82, 0.91%
Latin America
North America
FSU
Asia
2014
Middle East
Oil demand from non-OECD countries, led by Asia and the Middle East, could overtake that of OECD countries during the second quarter of this year. Gasoline demand growth will outpace gasoil as sales of larger vehicles would higher than the smaller cars in China through 2020. Although global gasoil demand was relatively week, industrial activity did show signs of picking up momentum over the course of the year. 4
-290
0 -40
-600 -330
-90 130 130 130
660 640
700 Middle East250 180 250
140 170 170 DDDDDDD
Latin America220 160 180
Oil Market Outlook: Supply
IEA expect Non-OPEC production to increase by 1.0 MBD to 54.4 MBD in this year. Continued growth in North American light/tight oil output are the most of an increase. South Sudan production restarted in early April for export via Sudan, ending a thirteen-month outage.
For full year 2013, the call on OPEC was also lowered to an average 29.6 MBD.
5
Source : IEA May, 13
*Include Biofuel
53.4 54.4 55.8
6.3 6.6 6.7
31.3
0
89.8 90.6 91.8
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2013
OPEC Supply OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Supply Total Demand
Wor
ld o
il ba
lanc
e (M
BD)
66 777777
Call on OPEC 29.3 MBD
0000000
Call on OPEC 29.6 MBD
2014
Oil Market Outlook: Price Outlook
WTI
Brent DB
$/bbl
ME tension
2H2013 ≈ 104-108 $/BBL Y2013 ≈ 105 $/BBL
New refining capacity U.S. and China recovery OPEC meeting
6
DUBAI Price Outlook:
Refinery return from maintenance @ late Q2 Saudi Arabia’s demand for power generation in Summer Tension in Middle East, Iran nuclear U.S. economic recovery Monetary policy from major central bank (U.S., EU, Japan) Chinese demand- New Refining Capacity Hurricane season in Q3 and winter season in Q4
U.S fiscal problem/ Debt ceiling EU zone debt problems Slower than expect growth in China South Sudan resume crude export Non-OPEC supply
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
1Q12 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q
Oil Market Outlook: Cracks Movement
-15
-5
5
15
25
GO-DB Avg. 2013 17.66
UNL95-DB Avg. 2013 14.97
FO-DB Avg. 2013 -5.43
Light and middle distillate crack will be relatively strong in 2013
$/bbl
GO-DB Avg. 2013 17.66
UNL95-DB Avg. 2013 9714.9
FO-DB Avg. 2013 - 35.43UNL95-DB GO-DB
FO-DB
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Crack spread outlook
7
Re : FO based on new conversion (6.35) 2013 GO-DB based on Gasoil 0.05%S
World Oil Situation
1Q 2013 Highlights
Financial Performance
2013 Overview
Agenda
8
29.94 31.12 30.82
116.45 107.53 108.09
Refinery Business Highlights
Exchange Rate (THB/$)
Avg. Dubai Price ($/BBL)
Unit : $/BBL Total GRM
Market GRM
GRM Hedging
Inventory G/L
Crude Run (KBD) 100.99
84.76 99.95
5.36
-2.22
4.19
0.49
1.24
0.28
6.68 10.64
7.97
12.53 9.66 12.44
1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
9
Refinery Business Highlights
1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
Crude Feed
13% 13% 17%
53% 55% 49%
12% 10% 11% 20% 21% 20%
1% 1% 2%
1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
LPG
GASOLINE
JET
DIESEL
FO
Product Yield
Local 46% Far
East 35%
Middle East 14%
Other 5%
Local 60%
Far East 40%
Local 48%
Far East 50%
Middle East 2%
10
Integrated Performance
12.53 9.66 12.44
2.65 2.71
2.32
1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
Accounting GIM ($/BBL)
15.18 12.37 14.76
Customer 1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 Retail 670.39 705.95 729.21 Industrial 560.45 490.11 526.93 Supply Sales 266.20 234.75 247.02 Export 158.83 164.41 254.06
Total 1,655.88 1,595.22 1,757.22
Total Sales Volume
Unit: Million Liter
11
560.45 490.11 526.93
670.39 705.95 729.21
1,230.84 1,196.06 1,256.14
1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
Industrial Retail Total Sales
Marketing Business Highlights
1Q2013:
Marketing Sales Volume 1,256 ML (87.79 KBD)
increased 2.1% YoY.
Retail Sales volume increased 8.8% YoY.
Industrial sales volume decreased by 6.0% YoY.
664 656 709
1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
6.8% YoY 8.1% QoQ
98 110 127 48 55 81 37 55
69 3
11 15
1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
GASOHOL E85
GASOHOL E20
GASOHOL 95
GASOHOL 91
57.6% YoY 26.8% QoQ
185 230
292
Diesel Sales Volume Gasohol Sales Volume Unit: MM Litre
Unit: MM Litre
Sales Volume through Marketing Channel
2.1% YoY 5.0% QoQ 1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
MKM 0.62 0.66 0.50
Unit: Baht/Litre
12
Marketing Business Highlights
STANDARD 489 488 503
CO-OPERATIVE 578 584 603
No. Service* stations (Sites)
*Number has deducted closed stations from total
Thailand Market share in retail market
Gasoline All Product
Note: (1) PTT figure was exclude PTT RM (2) All figures are LPG excluded +0.7 YoY
No. Service stations with
Y2012 1Q2013 Target 2013
E20 581 640 700
E85 51 51 100
EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222200000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888855555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555
13
+1.2 YoY
Data: Jan-Mar 2013
N de PTT RM excluded
Other Other
Diesel Club
Marketing Business Highlights
Non Oil (Sites)
INTHANIN 232 249 350
Mini BIG C 7 10 70
BAICHAK MART 105 107 53
Y2012 1Q2013 Target 2013
CRM Program
114,000 148,000
Y2012 1Q2013
GSH Club
554,000 635,000
Y2012 1Q2013
554,000635,000
114,000148,000
Members: Members:
Avg. sales volume Avg. sales volume Unit: ML/MO Unit: ML/MO
A
As of: As of:
14
* * Replace by Mini Big C
Solar Power Business Highlights
EBITDA
Sales Revenue
* Included compensation from BI amounted 73 MMTHB
Y2012 1Q2013
Phase 1 (38 MW) 378 196
Phase 2 (32 MW) - 33
Total 378 229
Phase 1 (38 MW) 423 186
Phase 2 (32 MW) - 32
Total 423 218
Phase 1 (38 MW PPA) Fully started Commercial Operation on July 16th, 2012
Phase 2 (32 MW PPA) Supplied to Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA)
Site#1: (16 MW PPA) at Bam Net Narong District, Chaiyaphum – COD in March 6th, 2013
Site#2: (16 MW PPA) at Bang Pa Han District, Ayudhaya – COD in April 5th, 2013
*
Unit: THB Million
15
Biofuel Business Highlights
Bangchak Biofuel Co. Ltd., (BBF)
Capacity 360,000 litre per day
Capacity Utilization 92% in 1Q2013
Avg. Production Volume increased 13.8% YoY
B100 sales volume grew 11.1% YoY
EBITDA (THB Million)
B100 Sales Volume (MM Litre)
1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
40.14 37.69 44.61
61 31 94
Avg. Production Volume (Litre/Day) 0.29 0.33 0.33
Note: Capacity Expansion from 300,000 litre per day to 360,000 litre per day in July, 2012.
1Q2012
Avg. Production Volumen Vol(Litre/Dayy) 0.29
16
World Oil Situation 1Q 2013 Highlights
Financial Performance
2013 Overview
Agenda
17
Unit: THB Million 1Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013
Sales Revenue 47,610 43,952 47,283
EBITDA 3,714 2,050 3,478
Depreciation and Amortization (558) (723) (679)
Other FX and Impairment 236 283 209
Financial Cost (191) (274) (268)
Pre-tax Profit 3,201 1,336 2,740
Tax (751) (190) (520)
Net Profit* 2,450 1,147 2,198
EPS (Baht/Share) 1.77 0.83 1.60
Δ QoQ (%) Δ YoY (%)
7.6 -0.7
69.7 -6.4
-6.1 21.7
-26.1 -11.4
-2.2 40.3
105.1 -14.4
173.7 -30.8
91.6 -10.3 *Net profit attributable to owners of the company
18
Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
Adjusted EBITDA 2,101 2,600 2,312
Note: Adjusted EBITDA mentioned to EBITDA excluding an impact of inventory gain or loss.
EPS (THB per Share) 1.73 0.86 1.49
Unit : THB Million 1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
Sales revenue 46,940 43,337 46,530
EBITDA 3,609 2,056 3,270
-Refinery Business 3,059 1,582 2,698
-Marketing Business 550 307 386
-Solar Power Plant Business - 167 186
Tax (740) (198) (507)
Net Profit 2,377 1,180 2,054
Δ QoQ (%)
7.4
59.0
70.5
25.7
11.4
156.1
74.1
Profit and Loss (Company)
Δ YoY (%)
-0.9
-9.4
-11.8
-29.8
-
-31.5
-13.6
19
1Q2013 Performance: Gain from Foreign Currency Forward THB 614 million
Adjusted EBITDA 2,075 2,589 2,141
PP&E increased mainly from Solar Power Plant Phase 2 (32 MW).
Book value on March 31th, 2013 was Baht 24.94 per share.
20
Financial Position (Consolidated)
Current Ratio, time
Current Portion of Long-Term Loan 1,017
Long-Term Loan 14,837
Debentures 2,295
TOTAL 18,848
IBD/E Ratio, time
0.86
0.62 0.59 0.55
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 1Q2013
Long-Term Debt Portion
1.83
2.15
1.93 1.9
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 1Q2013
7
8
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
F
Non Current Liabilities
Current Liabilities
L/T Debt*
Total Equity
Cash & Equivalents
Other Current
Assets
Other Non-Current
Assets
PP&E
Unit: THB Million
31 Mar 2013
74,178
31 Dec 2012
70,853
* Including current portion of long-term debt
1Q 2012 4Q2012 1Q 2013M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL
Market GRM 1,913 6.68 2,558 10.64 2,147 7.97
GRM Hedging 140 0.49 297 1.24 75 0.28
Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,534 5.36 (533) (2.22) 1,129 4.19
Total GRM 3,586 12.53 2,322 9.66 3,351 12.44
Other Income 41 0.14 341 1.42 45 0.17
Operating Expenses (567) (1.98) (1,082) (4.50) (698) (2.59)
EBITDA 3,059 10.70 1,582 6.58 2,698 10.02
Adjusted EBITDA 1,525 5.33 2,113 8.79 1,569 5.83
Key factors: Crude Run (KBD) 100.99 84.76 99.95 Exchange rate (฿/$) 31.12 30.82 29.94 DB ($/Bbl) 116.45 107.53 108.09
Company Only
21
Refinery BU Performance
1Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013 M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L
Net Retail Margin 546 0.81 643 0.91 494 0.68
Net Industrial Margin 211 0.38 149 0.30 131 0.25
Total MKM 757 0.62 791 0.66 625 0.50
Other Income 193 0.16 196 0.16 214 0.17
Operating Expenses (400) (0.33) (682) (0.57) (453) (0.36)
EBITDA 550 0.45 305 0.26 386 0.31
Sales volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
o Retail 46.3 223.5 48.3 235.3 50.9 243.1
o Industrial 38.7 186.8 33.5 163.4 36.8 175.6
Total Sales volume 85.1 410.3 81.8 398.7 87.8 418.7
Company Only
22
Marketing BU Performance
Unit: THB Million 4Q2012 1Q2013
Revenue 185 229
Gross profit 140 171
Other income (2) (0.7)
Operating Expense (16) (2)
EBITDA 166 218
In 1Q 2012, the solar power plant (phase 1) was seized operation due to the flood
Solar Power Plant 2 phases:
Phase 1: Bang Pa-In, Ayudhaya started COD on July 16, 2013
Phase 2: Bamnet Narong, Chaiyaphum started COD on March 6, 2013
23
Solar Business Performance
Phase 1 (38 MW) + Phase 2 (16 MW)
Δ QoQ (%)
23.8
22.1
-65.0
-87.5
31.3
Unit: THB Million 1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
Revenue 1,307 952 1,133
Gross profit 55 (10) 70
EBITDA 61 31 93
Net Profit 41 (4) 70
Δ QoQ (%) Δ YoY (%)
19.0 -13.3
- 27.3
200.0 52.4
- 70.7
Utilization rate (%) 99% 103% 92%*
24
BBF Performance
*Utilization rate in 1Q2013 was calculated based on 360,000 litre per day capacity
Stock Gain/Loss 26.07 -28.77 27.40
In 1Q 2013, Sales volume increased 11.4% YoY however, the sales price decrease.
World Oil Situation 1Q 2013 Highlights
Financial Performance
2013 Overview
Agenda
25
Crude Run (KBD) 99.95 ≈ 100-105
Market GRM ($/BBL) 7.97 ≈ 7
MK sales volume (KBD) 87.79 ≈ 85.5
Retail Margin (Baht/Litre) 0.50 ≈ 0.65
EBITDA (THB Million) 3,478 ≈ 9,600
Company Overview
Refinery 63%
Retail 20%
Solar 15%
Biofuel 2%
Y2013F
15%15%5%
Refinery63%
Reettail2000%
EBITDA, THB million Forecast FY2013
26
Actual 1Q2013
11%
55%
12%
20%
2%
2013F
LPG
Gasoline
Jet
Diesel
Fuel Oil
Refinery Business Target
Y2013:
Target Crude Run 100-105 KBD
Market GRM 7 $/BBL
Refinery project : 3E+ Project to enhance GRM (Efficiency, Energy, and Environment)
1. New CDU (100 KBD) expected to change in 2014 turnaround
2. New CCR: Continuous Catalytic Reforming Unit
3. Co-Gen: Co-Generation Power Plant
New CCR and Co-Generation are under Technology selection and Preliminary Design
Local 43 KBD
Far East 50 KBD
Middle East
9 KBD
Other 9 KBD
Production Yield
Crude selection
2013F
27
Marketing Business Target
Expected Sale through marketing channel growth ≈ 9%
Retailing Business Target is to be rank in term of market share
Expansion of Service station in strategic location
+39
+119
+49
+105
Target 2013
Service station
Service station with
Rebranding Service Stations
Service station with
Expected Marketing Margin ≈ 0.65 THB/Liter
e raY2013:
28
Marketing Business Target
Expand our non oil business to Increase brand awareness and traffic to station
Partnership with BIG C and plan to be 70 branches by 2013
Inthanin expansion plan to be 350 branches by 2013
Develop CRM program, Gasohol & Diesel Club Card
Retailing Business Target is to be rank in term of market share e ra
Y2013:
29
Project Updated
Ubon Bio Ethanol Co., Ltd. (UBE) Capacity 400,000 Litre/day; dual feed flexibility (molasses and cassava).
Commissioning in December 2012.
Started selling Ethanol to BCP and other majors oil companies.
Solar Power Plant: Phase 3 (48 MW PPA) located in the east and northeast of Thailand.
During contractor selection process and expected to start construction in August 2013.
Target COD in May, 2014.
Tail Gas Treating Unit To Reduce emission of Sulfur Dioxide from the Sulfur Recovery Unit
Under construction which the structural work was finished.
Expected completion at the end of 2013.
30
(Unit : THB Million) 2013F 2014-2016F 3-Y accumulated
Refinery Business: • Annual CAPEX • 3E+ Project
1,400
-
4,500 6,000
Marketing Business: Annual CAPEX & Network Expansion 1,000 3,000
Solar Power Plant Business: Phase III : 48 MW 5,700 -
BBF’s Expansion Project 800 -
Total 8,900 13,500
Investment Plan
31
Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.
The Bangchak Petroleum PLC
ir@bangchak.co.th Tel. +662 335 4580, 335 4583
www.bangchak.co.thclick Investor Relations
32