Post on 30-May-2018
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Multilateral Institutions and
the Emergence of IncipientRegionalism
Professor Carl Thayer
Presentation to
Centre for Defence and Strategic StudiesAustralian Defence College
March 13, 2009
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Learning Objectives
1. Analyse the emergence of multilateral
institutions and groupings with aregional security role.
2. Assess the effectiveness of regional
institutions in contributing to agreater sense of security.
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Part I
Analyse the emergence of multilateral
institutions and groupings with aregional security role.
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Longevity in Years (2009)
Established
ASEAN (42)
FPDA (38) APEC (20)
CSCAP (16)
ARF (15) ASEM (13)
SCO (13)*
Incipient
Shangri-La Dialogue (7)
Six Party Talks (6)
East Asia Summit (4)
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1. Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN)
To accelerate the economic growth, social
progress and cultural development
To promote regional peace and stability
Bangkok Declaration, August 8, 1967
Founding members:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and
Thailand (ASEAN 5)
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Phases of Development
1. 1967-75 consultation and consensus
2. 1976-91 ASEAN norms, diplomatic
community3. 1992-1997 institutionalisation and
membership expansion
4. 1997-2002 multiple crises & recovery5. 2003 towards an ASEAN community
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ASEAN Decision-Making
Annual Ministerial Meeting (AMM)
Foreign ministers
Post-Ministerial Conference (PMC)
Dialogue partners
Meetings of other ministers
Defence (2006)
ASEAN Summit Meetings
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ASEANs Dialogue Partners
Australia (1974)
New Zealand (1975)
EU (1977) Japan (1977)
Canada (1977)
United States (1977)
UNDP (1977)
South Korea (1991)
India (1996) China (1996)
Russia (1996)
Pakistan (1997)*
*sectoral partner
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2. Five Power Defence
Arrangements (FPDA) United Kingdom withdrawal east of Suez
defence of Malaysia and Singapore indivisible
FPDA formed 1971
consultative body
annual joint training exercises
Integrated Air Defence System (IADS)
Confidence building measure between Malaysia
and Singapore
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3. Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC)
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Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University,
Australia.
University of Toronto-York University Joint Center for Asia Pacific Studies,
Canada.
Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia.
Japan Institute of International Affairs, Japan.
The Seoul Forum for International Affairs, Republic of Korea.
Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malaysia.
Institute for Strategic and Development Studies, Philippines.
Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies (formerly Singapore Institute of
International Affairs), Sinagpore.
Institute for Security and International Studies, Thailand.
Pacific Forum/CSIS, United States of America.
4. Council for Security
Cooperation in the AsiaPacific
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5. ASEAN Regional Forum
First ARF Chairman's Statement (1994):
to foster constructive dialogue andconsultation on political and security issuesof common interest and concern; and
to make significant contributions to effortstowards confidence-building and preventivediplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region.
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ARF-2: Chairmans Statement
The approach shall be evolutionary, taking placein three broad stages, namely
the promotion of confidence building,
development of preventive diplomacy and
elaboration of approaches to conflicts.
The ARF process is now at Stage I, and shall
continue to discuss means of implementingconfidence building.
Stage II, particularly where the subject matteroverlap, can proceed in tandem with Stage I.
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Decision-Making
Decisions of the ARF shall be made throughconsensus after careful and extensiveconsultations among all participants.
no voting
Move at a pace comfortable to all ARF members
Chairman of ARF is Chairman of the ASEAN
Standing Committee Chairmans Statement after annual meeting
Non-binding
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Membership Expansion (27)
Brunei China Myanmar
Indonesia European Union Cambodia
Malaysia Japan Mongolia
Philippines South Korea North Korea
Singapore New Zealand India
Thailand PNG Pakistan
Vietnam Russia Timor-Leste
Australia United States Bangladesh
Canada Laos Sri Lanka
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CBM and PD Overlap Agreed definition of Preventive Diplomacy
Four CBM/PD measures overlap:
the enhanced role of the ARF Chair
the ARF Registers of Experts/EminentPersons,
theAnnual Security Outlookand voluntary background briefing on regional
security issues
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6. Asia Europe Meeting - ASEM
Inaugural Summit March 1996
26 founding members
Ministerial meetings annually
Summits every two years
Coordinators two from each side Enlargement to 45 members
Dialogue platform
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7. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
1996 Shanghai Five
China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan,
Tajikistan
2001 SCO (Shanghai Five plus Uzbekistan)
Address security problems along borders
Highly structured inter-governmental
organisation
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Central Asia
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SCO Councils
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8. Shangri-La Dialogue
Initiated by International Institute of StrategicStudies (IISS) in 2002
Participation by defence ministers from 15countries plus 6 deputy ministers or senior officials
IISS: the best available vehicle in the Asia-
Pacific region for developing and chanellingastute and effective public policy on defenceand security.
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Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, China, France, Germany,
India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand,
Pakistan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka,
Thailand, Timor Leste, UK, US, Vietnam
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9. Six Party Talks
North Korea withdraws from Non-
Proliferation Treaty (2003)
Focus: peaceful resolution of nuclear
question on Korean peninsula
Six parties: North and South Korea, China,
Japan, Russian Federation and the U.S.
Six rounds of talks (2003-07)
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10. East Asia Summit
1st Summit held in Kuala Lumpur, December 14,2005
ASEAN members + China, Japan, South Korea,Australia, New Zealand, India
Russia has applied for membership and as of 2005,attends on observer status.
Promote peace, stability and economic prosperity
in East Asia
ASEAN driving force
4th summit set for Thailand 10-12 April 2009
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Part II
Assess the effectiveness of regionalinstitutions in contributing to agreater sense of security.
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1. ASEAN
Bangkok Declaration 1967
Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality 1971
Declaration of ASEAN Concord I 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation 1976
South East Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone 1998
Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China
Sea 2001 Declaration of ASEAN Concord II 2003
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ASEAN Security Focus
Non-traditional security issues
Counter-terrorism
Myanmar and non-intervention
ASEAN Defence Ministers (2006) ASEAN Charter
New structure of decision-making:ASEAN Coordinating Council, ASEANCommunity Councils, ASEAN SectoralMinisterial Bodies [Defence] andASEAN Secretary General with 4deputies.
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ASEAN Community 2020
Three pillars:
ASEAN Security Community
ASEAN Economic Community
ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community
2015
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2. FPDA
Integrated Area Defence System (2000)
Expanding role in addressing asymmetric
threats (2003) Facilitates cooperation in other areas
Malaysia in East Timor (currently)
Singapore and NZ in Afghanistan
Only effective multilateral military structurewith an operational dimension in SoutheastAsia.
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3. Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation
APECCounter-
TerrorismTask Force
SecureTrade in theAPEC Region(STAR)
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4.
CSCAP and the ARF
Track 1 activities in first half of year
Track 2 activities in second half of year
ARF Chair and CSCAP
Informal to formal relationship? Possible editor of annualAsia Pacific Security
Outlook
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CSCAP Working Groups
1. Comprehensive and CooperativeSecurity
2. Confidence and Security BuildingMeasures
3. Maritime Cooperation
4. North Pacific
5. Transnational Crime
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CSCAP Memoranda
No.1 The Security of the Asia Pacific Region
No.2 Asia Pacific Confidence and Security Building Measures
No.3 The Concepts of Comprehensive Security and CooperativeSecurity
No.4 Guidelines for Regional Maritime Cooperation
No.5 Cooperation for Law and Order at Sea
No. 6 Practice of Law in the Asia PacificNo. 7 Relationship Between Terrorism and Transnational
Crimes
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5. ASEAN Regional Forum
Work Program on Security Issues ASEAN and Non-ASEAN co-chair
Annual renewal of mandate
1995-97 ISM on SAR
1995-97 ISM on PKO
1995-99 ISM on Disaster Relief
2005 resumed 1995- ISG on CBMs
2002- ISM on Counter Terrorism & Trans-National Crime
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ARF Achievements
Agreed principles for dialogue and
cooperation
consensus, non-interference, pacecomfortable to all
Habits of dialogue and consultations on
political and security issuesWillingness of participants to discuss a
wide range of security issues multilaterally
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ARF Achievements
Transparency through exchange of
information on defence policy andpublication of white papers
Networking developed among national-
security, defence and military officials
Continuing CBMs as foundation
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ARF Achievements
Movement towards preventive diplomacyEnhanced role of ARF Chair
interaction with other regional andinternational organisations
ASEAN Secretariat to assist - ARF Unit
List of ARF Experts and Eminent PersonsSecurity Policy Conference (2004)
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ARF Achievements
Priority cooperation in fight against
international terrorism and transnational
crime But stalled at CBM-Preventive
Diplomacy stage
Role in conflict resolution unlikely North Korea nuclear issues
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1 Political
fight against terrorism, the management of migratory
flows, human rights, global environment challenges,
and the impact of globalisation
2 Economic and Financial
Investment, financial and social policy reform
3 Cultural and Intellectual
Cooperation in higher education
6. ASEM Three
Pillars
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7. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
Secretariat
HQ Beijing with Secretary General
Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (2004)
Focus on terrorist, separatist, extremist threats
Observers and Guests
Mongolia, India, Iran, Pakistan; ASEAN,
Afghanistan, Commonwealth of Independent
States
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8. Shangri-La Dialogue
Chiefs of Defence Staff (2003) National Security Advisors and Permanent Under
Secretaries for Defence (2004-05) + intelligence and
police Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia,
Canada, China, France, Germany, India,Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia,Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan,
Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka,Thailand, Timor-Leste, United Kingdom, UnitedStates, and Vietnam (N = 27)
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9. Six Party Talks
Our hope is that in North-East Asia we can create
the kind of community that we have already seen
created in South-East Asia
China, Japan, the Koreas and Russia should form a
new mechanism similar to the Association of
South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to help cope
with regional political problems Christopher Hill, US Assistant Secretary of State for
East Asia and Pacific Affairs, February 29, 2008
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10. East Asia Summit
Build confidence by exchange of views onissues of strategic importance to the region
poverty eradication, energy security, education,finance. Avian Influenza, natural disastermitigation, Doha Development Agenda,economic development and regional
integration, interfaith initiatives,denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,
U.S. frozen out
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Conclusion
No single security architecture [multilateral
institution] effectively covers the Asia-Pacific
Region
Multiple overlapping architectures deal with
hard and soft security challenges
The ASEAN Way embedded in ARF andEAS
No enforcement or compliance structures
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Conclusion
Spread of cooperative security norms
Emergence of ad hoc institutions
Six Party TalksShangri-la Dialogue
East Asia Summit
Growing interdependence across the Asia-Pacific RegionTsunami Relief (2004-05)
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Multilateral Institutions
and the Emergence ofIncipient Regionalism
Questions