1

2

Structure of Argument

• Science of climate change• Implications of science for structure of

economics• Key economic issues: some questions• Responding to the global challenges: the

basis for international action

3

The Greenhouse Effect

Met Office Hadley Centre

4

Strong Global Warming Observed

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchBased on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)

5

Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850:

Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)

6

Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT

0

5

10

15

20

25

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Gt C

O2

7

Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources

Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.

Energy – 25.6 Gt 61%Consuming fossil fuels

Land Use changes 7.6 Gt 18% primarily deforestation

Agriculture 5.6 Gt 14%mostly from soils & livestock

Electricity & Heat Generation

Transport

IndustryOther energy

All GHG in CO2 equivalent

8

9.4

5.4

4.1

5.8

1.5

7.6

16.8

9.3

5.6

8.1

1.9

7.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

PowerGeneration and

Heat Plants

Transport Industry Agriculture Waste Land Use

Global emissions are forecast to grow from all sources transport & power generation growing fastest

+2.1%

+2.1%

+1.1%

+1.2%

annual average forecast % growth in emissions to 2030

Source: International Energy Agency, US Environmental Protection Agency, CO2 equivalent

+0.7%

2002 actual emissions

2030 projected emissions

9

Projected Changes in Global Average Temperature to 2100 under Different IPCC Emissions Scenarios

(highest – A1FI, lowest – B1)

10

Change in the 2050s, based on IPCC Scenario A1

Warming will lead to major changes in water availability across the globe, with

consequences for droughts and floods

Source: Arnell (2004)

11

Increase in global temperature (relative to pre-industrial levels) for different stabilisation levels

(expressed as CO2 equivalent).

   Temperature change by 2100

(relative to pre-industrial)Temperature change at

equilibrium (relative to pre-industrial)

Stabilisation Level (CO2

equivalent)

Temperature change - based on

IPCC 2001 climate models

Temperature change - based on 2004 Hadley

Centre ensembles

Temperature change -

based on IPCC 2001 climate

models

Temperature change -

based on 2004 Hadley Centre

ensembles

400ppm 1.2 - 2.5C 1.6 - 2.8C 0.8 - 2.4C 1.3 - 2.8C

450ppm 1.3 - 2.7C 1.8 - 3.0C 1.0 - 3.1C 1.7 - 3.7C

550ppm 1.5 - 3.2C 2.2 - 3.6C 1.5 - 4.4C 2.4 - 5.3C

 

Source: Based on den Elzen and Meinhausen (2005).

12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

US WestEurope

China Russia Japan India Africa Mexico Brazil

Larger developing countries account for much of the forecast rise in emissions

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT Energy Information Administration Reference Scenario, Energy emissions only

39%

11%

145%

32%5%

95%78%

63%99%

Projected emissions, 2025

2002 emissions

Gt C

O2

Energy Emissions only

13

Although current emissions per capita are higher in developed countries

20

1110

9

43

21

0

5

10

15

20

United Statesof America

RussianFederation

Japan EuropeanUnion (25)

World China Brazil India

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT

2002 CO2Energy Emissions only

Ton

nes

per

pers

on p

er y

ear

CO

2

14

To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must start to fall soon & developing countries

must be part of the solution

Business as usual

(A2)

Source IPPC