Agricultural labour in the UK

Stephen Devlin, Economist

2 key questions

1. What does the agricultural labour market look like right now?

2. What are the key factors that are going to cause it to change in the future?

Small (tiny!)

Percentage of working people employed in agriculture and fishing in the UK: 1841-2011

Source: UK Census data

Thin on the ground

Employment per unit area on EU farm holdings

Source: Eurostat

Uneven

Labour intensity of different farm types (number of jobs per hectare)

Source: UK Agriculture departments June Survey/Census of Agriculture

Male

Gender of farm managers (2013) and seasonal, casual or gang labour (2014)

Source: Farm Structure Survey 2013, Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2014

Old

Age of farm managers (2013)

Source: Farm Structure Survey 2013

Badly paid

Gross weekly pay

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

All employees Skilled agricultural and related trades

£- £100 £200 £300 £400 £500 £600 £700 £800 £900

£1,000

Insecure

Workers/employees: collective bargaining power eroded, irregular/seasonal work

Farm owners/renters/managers: precarious business conditions

Divided

farm managers workers

skilled unskilled

domestic migrant

What does the future hold?

Productivity and technology

Skills, training and public perception

Globalisation, trade and the EU

Environment and public health

Productivity and technology

Skills, training and public perception

Globalisation, trade and the EU

Environment and public health

Productivity and technology

Partial factor productivity indicators for UK agriculture (1973 = 100)

Source: Defra

Productivity and technology

Technological progress on

farms

Labour moves to

higher value sectors

Labour gets more

expensive (food stays

cheap)

Farms want to reduce

labour requirements

Productivity and technology

Productivity and technology

Key questions

How far can agricultural automation go?

Exactly what type of jobs will remain?

How can the benefits of automation be shared?

Productivity and technology

Skills, training and public perception

Globalisation, trade and the EU

Environment and public health

Skills, training and public perception

Education and training (further education) participation in agriculture, horticulture and animal care

Source: Skills Funding Agency

Skills, training and public perception

Key questions

Is “upskilling” really so great?

How big a job is it to rehabilitate the reputation of farming as a career?

Productivity and technology

Skills, training and public perception

Globalisation, trade and the EU

Environment and public health

Globalisation, trade and the EU

-£400,000 -£200,000

£- £200,000 £400,000 £600,000 £800,000

£1,000,000 £1,200,000 £1,400,000

UK net imports (£000) by category, 2013

Source: Defra Note: some categories have been excluded to reduce complexity

Globalisation, trade and the EU

Globalisation, trade and the EU

Key questions

What is the net employment impact of the government export drive?

Does it matter if labour market opportunities primarily benefit migrants?

Productivity and technology

Skills, training and public perception

Globalisation, trade and the EU

Environment and public health

Environment and public health

Environment Less but better meat

Environmentally beneficial production methods

Public Health Less but better meat; more fruit and

vegetables Fewer processed and sugary foods

Environment and public health

Key questions

Will technology erode labour required for environmental/health reasons?

Does it or does it not mean increased food prices?

A million jobs in food and farming?

Why? For the environment, health, reducing unemployment? All of the above?

Take account of the counterfactual Different motivations for quantity and

quality How to navigate the politics around

migration and food prices?

www.neweconomics.org@NEF

Email: stephen.devlin@neweconomics.orgTwitter: @_StephenDevlin