Post on 20-Jun-2020
1
SSP/RCP-based scenarios: Implementation
Detlef van Vuuren
RCPsClimateSSPs
Starting point: Causal chain
Drivers (population
, GDP)
Energy use,
Land useEmissions Conc./
forcing Climate
ImpactExposed population, ability to adapt
Forc
ing
leve
l (W
/m
2)
8.5
6.0
4.5
2.6
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSP4 SSP5RCPsClimateSSPs
NarrativesQuantitative
drivers
IAM reference scenario(e.g., SSP3-Ref)
IAM SSP-RCP scenario(e.g., SSP3-4.5)
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
IAV study
Socioeconomicinformation
Climateinformation
Forc
ing
leve
l (W
/m
2)
8.5
6.0
4.5
2.6
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSP4 SSP5
Different socioeconomic pathways, butclimate “consistent” with RCP 4.5 forcing
Same socioeconomic pathway, different mitigation; climate “consistent” with each RCP’s forcing
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
RCP = trajectory of emissions and land-useleading to a specifc forcing level
SSP = Shared socio-economic pathway: story about how population, GDP, income etc. would
develop in the future.
SPA = description of mitigation (to move down a column) and adaptation policies (to deal with
climate policy)
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSP4 SSP5
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
Challenge to adaptation
Cha
lleng
e to
miti
gatio
n
Challenge to adaptation
Cha
lleng
e to
miti
gatio
n
SSP1:SustainabilityRapid technologyHigh environmentalAwarenessLow energy demandMedium-high economic growthLow population
SSP2:Middle of the Road
SSP3: FragmentationSlow technologyDevelopment (dev-ing)Reduced tradeV. Slow ec. growthVery high population
SSP4: InequalitySlow technologyHigh inequalityLow energy demandSlow economic growthHigh population
SSP5: Conventional dev.Rapid technology for fossilHigh demandHigh ec. GrowthLow population
Key SSP elements(three main products + IAV variables)
SSP StorylinesSSP Storylines
Population(age, sex,
mortality, fertility, education)
Urbanization(national)
Economic development(regional/national)
Quantitative drivers
Energy(technology,
resources, etc)
Emissions(forcing,
temperature)
Land-use(productivity,
diets, etc)
IAM Scenarios
1
2 3
Iterative Process
How low can we go? Detlef van Vuuren – 2 February 2009
Qualitative / quantitative(population)
VariableSSP5 SSP3 SSP2 SSP1
Fertility D: lowI: High
D: highI: low
D: MedI: Med
D: LowI: medium
Mortality D: lowI: low
D: highI: high
D: MedI: Med
D: LowI: Low
Migration high low Medium HighHigh economic
growth and education of
women leads to drop of fertility
High economic growth and
investment into health services leads to drop of
mortality
Globalised world has high migration rates
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Global population
Urbanization Projection Results
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
% u
rban
pop
ula
tion
Year
Western Europe
Latin America
China
Eastern Africa
SSP1
Fast
SSP2
Central
SSP3
Slow
SSP4
Fast/Central
SSP5
Fast
Source: O’Neill & Jiang,
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
GDP pe
r cap
its ($/cap
‐PP
P) SSP5
SSP3
SSP2
SSP4
SSP1
Economic projections
4 juni 201411 How low can we go? Detlef van Vuuren – 2 February 2009
Global Orchestration
Order from Strength
Adapting Mosaic TechnoGarden
Energy demand
lifestyle assumptions and energy efficiency investments based on current North American values
regionalized assumptions
regionalized assumptions
lifestyle assumptions and energy efficiency investments based on current Japan and West European values
Energy supply market liberalization; selects least-cost options; rapid technology change
focus on domestic energy resources
some preference for clean energy resources
preference for renewable energy resources and rapid technology change
Climate policy No no no yes,
PopulationGDP
IncomeElasticity
Energy demand
Costs of differentenergy sources
Depletion Technologydevelopment
Preferences
Energy supply
Costs of differentenergy sources
Depletion Technologydevelopment
Trade restrictions
PricesPriceElasticity
Climate policy(Carbon tax)
Socio-economic challengesfor adaptation
Soc
io-e
con
omic
chal
len
ges
for
mit
igat
ion
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100E
J0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Primary Energy
SSP3IMAGE
SSP5REMIND
SSP2MESSAGE
SSP4AIMSSP1
GCAM
Mitigation, including land-based mitigation
Cha
lleng
e to
miti
gatio
n
Challenge to adaptation
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2002000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
30
60
90
120
150
180 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
30
60
90
120
150
180
Emis
sion
s2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
30
60
90
120
150
180
Emis
sion
s
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
30
60
90
120
150
180
4.5 W/m2
Sulphuremissions
baseline
4 juni 201415
Reconciling the old and the new:
Van Vuuren, Carter, 2014
4 juni 201416
Process of the quantification group GDP and population data : finished March 2013 (IIASA, OECD, PIK) IAM teams elaborating scenarios (IIASA, PIK, PBL, GCAM, NIES,
FEEM….). June/July 2014: final submission Special Issue on SSPs in GEC (storylines, GDP, population, IAMs) From Summer 2014: Data available for impact/mitigation studies Summer 2014?: Decisions on use of scenarios in CMIP6
4 juni 201417
Conclusions SSPs: combination of storylines and initial, global, quantification Storylines can be the basis of downscaling / use outside original
domain:– SSP1: Sustainable dev. world (env. tech, good governance, low
popultation, wealthy, social/env goals important)– SSP2: Medium– SSP3: Fragmented world (regional competition, low tech., little
trade, poor)– SSP4: Fragmentation in regions (strong rich/poor divide, poor on
average)– SSP5: High economic growth (strong technology, fossil fuel
driven, consumption, human development)
4 juni 201418
SSP database: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb