www.solentlep.org.uk

Solent Careers Summit Summer Term

10 July 2020

Siobhan Flynn, Local Growth Programme Manager, Solent LEP

www.solentlep.org.uk

The Solent • Most urbanised area in southern England outside

London

• 2 coastal cities of Portsmouth and Southampton

• Nearly 350 miles of coastline – a world class

environment

• Three islands and three peninsulas present

unique challenges and opportunities that that

influence economic growth

• Three world class Universities and global

research assets

www.solentlep.org.uk

• We want the Solent to be the best place to live, work and trade in the UK. Our vision is thatthe Solent in 2050 will be:• At the helm of coastal renaissance and pioneering approaches to mitigating climate

change• Our mission to achieve this vision has five emerging principles:

• To secure our position as the number one economy for maritime.• To become an engine for pioneering approaches to climate change adaptation - and

there is an opportunity to build real expertise in this area that other regions – nationallyand globally – can learn from.

• To be the UK’s capital for coastal renaissance, harnessing new technologies andapproaches to revitalise coastal communities and ensure growth is inclusive.

• To have one of the UK’s most thriving coastal visitor economy, capitalising on theSolent’s superb natural beauty and rich maritime history.

• To be a global leader in developing people for the economy of the future, helpingpeople at all points of their career build the skills they need to take part in an innovativeknowledge-based economy.

2050

www.solentlep.org.uk

Skills Advisory Panels

• Bring together local employers and skills providers to pool knowledge on skills and labourmarket needs, including informing / supporting the provision of T levels.

• Understand & address key local challenges - current and future opportunities;

• Support analysis of their local skills and labour markets to understand the local position; gaps sufficiency, pipeline;

• Support colleges, universities and other providers deliver the skills required by employers, now and in the future;

• Strong local governance, advisory to LEP Board on skill priorities & how these will be met through local provision over time;

• Support strong Local Industrial Strategies;

www.solentlep.org.uk

• Chaired by the LEP Private sector Board member with lead for skills.

• Consist of up to 20 members

• 7 other private sector representatives.

• Local Authorities,

• Further Education, Higher Education, & Private Training Provider

• Community and Voluntary sector representative

• One Employment Specialist - DWP / JCP

• One pre-16 representative

• One Royal Navy representative

Skills Advisory Panels

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Solent Economy

• The structure of Solent’s economy has changed substantially over the past three decades, employment has continued to shift towards private services such as professional, scientific & technical activities.

• Manufacturing employment has been declining but manufacturing remains one of the most important industrial sectors across Solent.

• Solent is home to a number of smaller and future key growth sectors such as high-technology manufacturing, marine & maritime, the visitor economy and transportation & logistics. The maritime sector alone creates 152,000 jobs and as such is a substantial contributor to the economy.

• Demography, globalisation, competition, and technological change are some of the most important drivers behind the changing the pattern of demand for employment and skills in Solent

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• Sluggish growth since the recession but strong in 2017

• Relatively strong business growth driven by micro businesses

• Productivity and median wages below national average

Productivity*

£52,000 per job

£34.7 per hour

0.8% growth since 2009

SE - 2.1% & UK 1.9%3.1% below UK average

1.2% above UK average

2.1% p.a. since

recession- but mostly

micro business growth

Earnings

£23,600 workplace

£23,200 resident

1.5% below UK average

3.5% below UK average

Source: ONS (2019), *estimate based on the ‘old’ LEP geography

Economic Output

£30.1 bn in 2018

Businesses

42,000 in 2019

Economic Overview

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Economic Activity

610,000 in 2019

79.1%

0.4% p.a. since 2004

< UK/South East

above UK average

gap with South East

Above UK average

gap with South East

Jobs

610,000 in 2017

0.78 per resident

job density gap with

UK/South East

Source: ONS (2019)

Workforce

770,500 in 2019

Employment

587,800 in 2019

76.3%

• Large workforce but projected to decrease

• Labour market outcomes generally compare favourably with the national average

• High levels of labour market self-containment

Labour Market Overview

www.solentlep.org.uk

Intermediate

154,000, 20% (L3)

129,000, 16.8% (L2)

strong growth but

gap with both UK/SE

higher proportion and

faster growth than in

UK/SE

higher proportion

than in UK/SE

Low skilled142,000, 18.5%

No skills42,000, 5.4%

Lower proportion of

unskilled than in UK/SE

Source: ONS (2019)

High skills (L4+)

274,000

35.8%

Apprenticeships

26,400

3.4%

• Rising proportion of people educated to a degree or higher qualification

• Above average concentration of upper & lower intermediate skills

• Above average concentration of low skilled but relatively few with no qualification

Skills Overview

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Marine and Maritime

Autonomy and Robotics

Advanced Manufacturing

Priority Sectors

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Transport & Global Logistics

Defence

Visitor Economy

02392 603 650

Priority Sectors

www.solentlep.org.uk

Aerospace

Life Sciences and Health

Low Carbon

Creative & Digital

Priority Sectors

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Changing occupational demand 1981-2036

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Total Vacancies in the Solent 2017 by Industry

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Source: CE (2019) LEFM Model of the Solent Economy

• Based on net Job openings of approximately 240,000

Projected Skills Demand 2019-2028

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• Expansion demand is one source of jobs & skills demand

• Much of future demand for skills will come from replacement demand

• Positive net requirement across all occupations (industries)

-20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Managers and senior officials

Professional occupations

Associate professional and technical

Administrative clerical & secretarial

Skilled trades occupations

Personal service occupations

Sales and customer service

Process plant & machine operators

Elementary occupationsex pansion demand

replacement demandSource: CE/IER (2019)

2018-2028

Jobs demand - SLEPJobs demand by occupation - SLEP

0

100

200

300

400

500

2018-2028 2018-2036

expansion

replacement

thou

sand

Expansion and Replacement Demand by Occupation

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• Impact of technological change on both jobs and future skills requirement –

• 10% grow 70% change 20% shrink

• The case for continuing professional development and lifelong learning

Impact of Technological Progress on Skills

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• Judgement and Decision Making

• Fluency of Ideas

• Active Learning

• Systems Evaluation

• Originality

• Learning Strategies

• Deductive Reasoning

• Complex Problem Solving

Changing pattern of skills demand (occupational data)

Source: Emsi (2019)Source: Nesta (2018)

Skills most likely to be in greater demand up to 2030

Changing patterns of Skills Demand for Soft Skills

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• Balanced economy – with strengths in marine & maritime industries , high-tech

manufacturing, visitor economy, transport & logistics.

• Employment continued to grow across all sectors – indicating adaptation to

changing job/ skills requirements

• Some areas within Solent less resilient & over reliant on few key sectors.

• GVA & productivity challenge – boosting productivity in under-performing

sectors & well as encouraging high performing / growth sectors, & latent

workforce capacity.

• Lower than average wages – affordability issues & graduate talent retention

• Significant skills gaps - potential drag on economy

• Labour market self-containment & ageing workforce

Summary

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Local Skills and labour Market Evidence Base

• https://solentlep.org.uk/media/3114/solent-lep-skills-and-

local-labour-market-report-june-2020-final.pdf

• https://solentlep.org.uk/media/3115/solent-lep-skills-and-

local-labour-market-report-executive-summary-june-2020-

final.pdf

www.solentlep.org.uk

• Worst case scenario loss of nearly £11 billion to economy

• The Solent's gateway economy could feel the impact of the closure of global economies more than most

• 46,265 people across the Solent are claiming Universal Credit. An increase of 30,520 on the same period last year.

• The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) 134,600 workers are currently furloughed, with the two cities making up the largest cohorts, equal to 23% of the workforce

• 85% fall in apprenticeship vacancies for June

Coivd-19 Impact

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Covid 19 Impact on Jobs

• At Risk • Accommodation & food • Arts and Entertainment & more broadly

the visitor economy • Cruise industry • Air and public transport • Retail

• Growth • Health and pharmaceutical • Courier pick-up

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• Interim Skills Action Plan – as part of the Economic Recovery Plan

• Local Skills Report

• Align with government initiatives• cash incentives for apprenticeships; • new money and greater scope for Traineeships; • new Kickstart scheme to provide temporary work placements for

young people who would otherwise be unemployed

Next Steps