Post on 10-Jun-2015
description
Social Finance: The New Influential's (v 1.0)
1
INTRODUCTION This research represents state-of-play analysis of the most influential conversations about investments on the social web.
The social network analysis was sponsored by MindfulMoney.co.uk as part of our ongoing initiative to help facilitate a more mindful and social conversation about investments by embracing new and unconventional voices, channels and views.
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Background to the research .....................................................................................................................4
Methodology & Research Objectives.......................................................................................................5
Key findings...............................................................................................................................................6
Learning points for key audiences:IFAs, corporate, UK Govt and regulators, Media & Mindfulmoney.co.uk.................................................7
Future Phases of Research.......................................................................................................................8
Network Map & Profiles: The Top 20 ......................................................................................................9-50
How to read the map ................................................................................................................................10
About MindfulMoney..................................................................................................................................51-52
3
The view from the UK
In the UK the reach and influence of socially networked conversation was found to be equally pervasive with 43 per cent of people having bought financial services as a result of a recommendation via social networking friends.
Furthermore, the UK-based study found that, amongst a range of other products and services recommended by friends on social networks, financial services were the most trusted referral, leading to the most frequent purchases with 43 per cent of referrals leading to financial services purchases compared with clothing (26%) and car hire (25 %).While the reports highlighted the centrality of the social web to investment-related influence and decision-making they focussed mainly on friend and family networks typically with no more than 150 members.
But commentators and researchers such as Malcolm Gladwelland Jakob Nielsen have argued that socially networked conversations are driven by the law of the few and all voices are not equal.
MindfulMoney set out to discover if their claims were valid. Could we identify super-connected influential's who influenced
friend and family-
Could Gladwellinvestment-related conversations on the social web?
Background to the research
During 2010 the findings of two influential reports demonstrated unequivocally the importance of the web
and the US.
The view from the US
In the US financial websites, blogs and friends on social networks were found to be the top influences on individual investors, especially amongst so-called
more heavily influenced by family, friends and work colleagues than are older investors. (Harris interactive 2010)
4
Methodology & Research Objectives
The impetus for this research was provided by Josh Brown aka The Reformed Broker (recently dubbed by the NYT as the
snarkadvisors take on current market events, heavily laced with sarcasm and mordant irony.
His periodic table of top blogs and bloggers was the starting point
finance space.
clue to how he thinks but this set us thinking about how we might
preference, no matter how fascinating and insightful such preferences happen to be.
The purpose of this network map is to provide a visualization tool in order to better understand the relationships between financial bloggers and the mainstream media, and to allow readers to get a
players are and who links to whom.
The resulting cartographic landscape was created using co-link analysis software, which from a starting point of 25 bloggers generated a map which includes 84 separate sites.
In producing this network map we were not necessarily interested in establishing a hierarchy amongst blogs (although this was one output of the research) but more in understanding their relationships with each other, and specifically, how they relate to the mainstream media.
Research objectives
Do super-connecters really exist?
If so, what accounts for their extraordinary reach and influence? Who are they and where (geographically, professionally, psychologically) are they coming from?
Are the super-connectors themselves connected to one another?
Are they functioning as individuals or do they constitute an executive level social web all of their own?
The UK is a leading financial centre, is it a leader in the financial conversation?
5
established media players (the Economist and FT)
mainstream media nor the city.
The collective intelligence displayed by the network has proven its anticipatory sense-making capacity and has demonstrated predictive capability in relations to the market in both the short and the long term
The network covers the issues in depth in a way that the mainstream
and picking apart complex cause-effect relationships.
The network has been credited with helping investors respond more mindfully to market developments than coverage by the mainstream media and trades.
Key Findings
The research confirms the existence of a network of investment super-connectors with extraordinary media influence and reachThese super-established voices in the media but individual bloggers who fiercely champion their independence.
However, these individuals operate as a connected network, influencing one another as they debate and discuss key topics, issues and themes.
The network has both influence (links to the mainstream media, government, thought leaders) and reach (38million) however the mainstream media is not at the heart of the network where the most influential super-connectors are located.
The top 20 network is international with a strong US>UK biasThe network is heavily weighted toward the US (10% UK/90%US) In the US, the network functions as the unofficial voice of Wall Street & the US federal bank with no mainstream media players at the centre of the network
"Financial blogs have covered the events leading up to the credit crisis much better than mainstream media. Thanks to them, I have made good money from the crisis!"
Björn A Jörgensen. Private investor
6
Corporations
conversations on the social web can provide insights into how to frame communications in such a way that they resonate with the current
IFAs
opportunity to make new connections.
reverse the decreasing influence of financial advisors on the social web.
between friends on social networks can enable IFAs to become strategically important to investor relations professionals.
Learning points for key audiences
INVESTORS
Investors can usefully glean news and data from mainstream
-depth, consistent expert coverage as well as covering stories before they break in mainstream media.Some investors credit the social web with an anticipatory function which has offered them novel investment opportunities
Mainstream media
technical knowledge and offer an alternative source of non-mainstream viewpoints.
7
Future phases of research
future releases we will be data-mining the map to shed light on single issues, creating alternative maps with different starting points and probing deeper into some of the questions and issues brought to light by
Questions we will be exploring in future research releases and news stories on the MindfulMoney.co.uk website include:
Why such a disparity between the UK and the US investment blogosphere?Is the blogosphere a better guide to investing than the mainstream media commentators?
Can the investment blogosphere help to alert us to early signals of another financial crisis?
How should established institutions, ordinary investors and IFAs relate to the unofficial voice of finance?
What is the appropriate role of regulators to the burgeoning blogosphere and what role could the network play in TCF initiatives?
What are the risks of increasing levels of correlation (or groupthink) and contagion across social networks as ordinary
Trust is migrating from established intermediaries, advisors and
maverick voices to be trusted?
Where are the controls, the rules, the norms in an era when everything is up for grabs?
If you would like to receive social finance research updates let us know.
8
Network Map & Profiles: The Top 20 Financial Blogs 1. Naked capitalism2. Infectious Greed3. The Big Picture4.5. Zero Hedge6.7. Calculated Risk8.9. FT Alphaville10. Ludvig von Misses Institute
11. The Market Trader12. WSJ Blogs13. The Epicurean Dealmaker14. Credit Writedowns15. Dealbreaker16. China Financial Markets17. Max Keiser18. Angry Bear19. The Economist20. Jr. Deputy Accountant
9
HOW TO READ THE MAP WHAT ARE THE NODES ON THE NETWORK?The map shows the top 20 blogs in the context of a wider network which comprises 50 sites in total.
WHAT DO THE COLOURS MEAN?Blue nodes are dot.coms, green nodes are dot.orgs and red nodes are dot.govs and the links between them show relationships between commercial, not for profit and governmental organisations.
HOW IS THE SIZE OF THE NODES IN THE NETWORK MEASURED? The size of the nodes is drawn by the in-degree count.
BY WHAT MEASURE ARE THE CLUSTER MAPS GENERATED? Maps are generated on the basis of in-degree centrality.
-DEGREE CENTRALITY?In-degree centrality: An actor who receives many ties are characterized as prominent. The basic idea is that many actors seek to direct ties to them and so this may be regarded as a measure of importance.
10
Profile
-Naked
Capitalism is one of the most highly regarded and highly read financial blogs you can find. You should check out: her nonsense
be taken
1. NAKED CAPITALISM
11
MINNYANVILLE
MAX KESIER
FT
FEDERAL RESERVE
BASELINE SCENARIO
CROSSINGWALLSTREET
ECONBROWSER
THE EPICUREAN DEALMAKER
ZERO HEDGE
12
Who links to Naked Capitalism
1. NAKED CAPITALISM
13
2. INFECTIOUS GREED
investor, speaker, writer, media guy, and entrepreneur. In his spare time he is a dangerous Twitterer, columnist/contributor for Bloomberg Media (formerly for CNBC), and the editor of Infectious Greed, one of the most
You should check out: Thought provoking articles like
Profile
MINNYANVILLE
DOLLAR COLLAPSE
CROSSINGWALLSTREET
THE EPICUREAN DEALMAKER
ZERO HEDGE
14
2. INFECTIOUS GREED
Who links to Infectious Greed
15
3. THE BIG PICTURE
When Nouriel Roubini
with a knack for seeing through the statistical fog of
You should check out: The entire site, but the Macro notes are great:
Profile
ECONBROWSER
MINYANVILLE
DOLLARCOLLAPSE
THE EPICUREAN DEALMAKER
CROSSING WALL STREET
MAX KEISER
16
3. THE BIG PICTURE
Who links to The Big Picture
17
A reflective take on market coverage, with quite a lot of charts and vintage posters. An antidote to the break neck real time financial news. Check out: His daily charts.
Profile
ZERO HEDGE
MAX KESIER
18
19
5. ZERO HEDGE
economic and political information available to the
Check out: Among their highly critical articles, their forum.
Profile
MINNYANVILLE
MAX KESIER
FT
FEDUPUS
CROSSINGWALLSTREET
THE EPICUREAN DEALMAKER
20
Who links to Zero Hedge
5. ZERO HEDGE
21
With over a million visitors a month, this is one of the most widely read economic blogs on the web.
Profile
FEDUPUSA
URBANDIGS
MAX KEISER
MINYANVILLE
DOLLARCOLLAPSE
ECONBROWSER
ZERO HEDGE
22
23
They built a cult following as an early predictor of the US Housing Bubble.
7. CALCULATED RISK
Profile
BASELINE SCENARIO
MINYANVILLE
MAX KEISER
24
7. CALCULATED RISK
Who links to Calculated Risk
25
Nobel Prize winning economist blogs at the New York
especially charts and tables, which are crucial to the way I Krugman)
Check out: His rows with other economists and newspapers gunna haul out the next guy who calls
8. KRUGMANS BLOG
Profile
ECONBROWSER
BASELINESCENARIO
26
8. KRUGMANS BLOG
27
An influential and widely read blog which has been touted
average, good news on FT Alphaville is associated with 1-week ahead outperformance. Conversely, on average, bad news for a company on FT Alphaville is associated with 1-week ahead under-performance. The same effect is not evident in our database as a whole, indicating that there is
Check out: Market Live, a daily real time discussion of the market.
9. FT ALPHAVILLE
Profile
THE EPICUREAN DEALMAKER
CROSSINGWALLSTREET
FT
28
9. FT ALPHAVILLE
Who links to FT Alphaville
29
The Ludwig von Mises Institute is the research and educational centre of classical liberalism and the Austrian School of economics. Its mission is to promote the tradition of thought represented by Ludwig von mises. The Wall Street Journal covered the institute in a piece
10. LUDWIG VON MISES INSTITUE
Profile
URBANDIGS
CONTRARY ADVISER
DOLLARCOLLAPSE
ZERO HEDGE
30
10. LUDWIG VON MISES INSTITUE
Who links to Ludwig von Mises Institue
31
The Market Ticker is written by Karl Denninger, who received the Reed Irvine Accuracy In Media Award for Grassroots Journalism for his coverage of the 2008 market meltdown. This is why one reader follows his blog:
and read an article.
11. THE MARKET TICKER
Profile
MAX KEISER
DOLLARCOLLAPSE
ZERO HEDGE
FEDUPUSA
32
11. THE MARKET TICKER
Who links to The Market Ticker
33
A wide ranging selection of blogs from Wall Street Journal editors and reporters who provide real-time news and analysis around the clock, with contributions from outside experts.
12. WSJ BLOGS
Profile
ECONBROWSER
DEALBREAKER
THE EPICURIAN DEALMAKER
URBAN DIGS
BASELINE SCENARIO
34
12. WSJ BLOGS
Who links to WSJ Blogs
35
Written by a New York investment banker who offers an
was recently referenced in the New Yorker.
13. THE EPICURIAN DEALMAKER
Profile
BASELINE SCENARIO
CROSSINGWALLSTREET
36
13. THE EPICURIAN DEALMAKER
Who links to The Epicurean Dealmaker
37
14. CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
A news and opinion site dedicated to bringing a well-informed view of finance, economics, markets, and foreign policy into the mainstream consciousness.Contributors include Marc Chandler, former chief currency strategist for HSBC and Marshall Auerback, economic consultant to PIMCO.
Profile
ZEROHEDGE
CROSSINGWALLSTREET
ECONBROWSER
38
14. CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Who links to Credit Writedowns
39
15. DEALBREAKER
DealBreaker is an online business tabloid and Wall Street gossip site that covers the personalities and culture that shape the financial industry, offering original commentary, news and entertainment.
Profile
ZEROHEDGE
CROSSINGWALLSTREET
THE EPICURIAN DEALMAKER
40
15. DEALBREAKER
Who links to Dealbreaker
41
16. CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS
Written by Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking Guanghua School of Management.
Profile
ZEROHEDGE
FT
ECONBROWSER
42
16. CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS
43
17. MAX KEISER
Max Keiser is a film-maker, broadcaster and former broker and options trader. His site is heavily critical of the finance industry, with articles published in the Guardian entitled
Profile
ZEROHEDGE
44
17. MAX KEISER
Who links to Max Keiser
45
18. ANGRY BEAR
One of a dozen professionals, including a tax law expert, a historian, PhDs in economics, consultants and financial professionals provide perspectives on the financial world. Despite their expansive coverage of economic issues, their articles are as deep as their coverage is extensive. Topics include world trade, industrial production, U.S. Government programs, and major regulatory
Profile
ZEROHEDGE
BASELINESCENARIO
ECONBROWSER
46
18. ANGRY BEAR
Who links to Angry Bear
47
19. THE ECONOMIST
newspapers weekly coverage , offering regular updates on politics, culture and business.
Profile
FT
BASELINESCENARIO
ECONBROWSER
EPICURIAN DEALMAKER
48
19. THE ECONOMIST
Who links to The Economist
49
20. JR. DEPUTY ACCOUNTANT
Cited by blogs from FT Alphaville to The Reformed Broker, JDA writes predominantly about the FED. This is how she describes herself and gives you a flavour of what to expect.
accidental Fed savant hiding out somewhere in San Francisco since 1999. I can't tell you why I understand what the Fed is saying 97% of the time, nor why I nerd out on Fed banks (except this one) but I do and you get to
Profile
BASELINESCENARIO
50
20. JR. DEPUTY ACCOUNTANT
Who links to Jr. Deputy Accountant
What's a knowledge network?Knowledge about investing - why, how, where and when to invest - is currently the privilege of a few. Mindful Money's knowledge network is about sharing the knowledge and information of those in the know with those who aren't - yet
We will be calling on some of the smartest minds, both inside and outside the industry, to help clarify, decode and demystify the investment scene.
So, in a nutshell, we're about knowledge, we're about news, we're about community and we're a bridge between the professionals and every other type of investor.
What's mindful about Mindful Money?Mindfulness is about making the links that others don't, paying attention to history and voices from outside the industry, making the effort to speak in ordinary language, taking the long view, paying attention to contrarian insiders and keeping an eye out for black swans.
We're taking a stand against fads, groupthink, short-termism, scape-goating, media bias and FS jargon. A final thing about Mindful Money - we're not about advice - there's enough of that to go around.
Welcome to Mindful Money. www.mindfulmoney.co.uk
About Mindful MoneyMindful Money is a social news and knowledge network for the investment community and it's published by the Social Business Group.
What is social news?Mindful Money's social news is editorial content that mirrors the viewpoints, interests and conversations of the online investment community. It's editorial that's focused more on you and your interests and the things that matter to you. And less on the comings and goings of fund managers, irrelevant product launches, banal industry awards and so on - unless of course we know they are important to you.
When it comes to Mindful Money, we look for new triggers for headline-breaking topics, the 'story behind the story' and new frames for investment news.
Mindful Money also aims to help investors actually solve problems; whether that's through access to information or unconventional points of view.In that respect it's a little bit like citizen journalism, but with an investment focus.
So, as well as adding value to the stories and issues you're discussing wherever we can we'll provide you with resources (step-by-step guides, videos, background stories) and links to others who are covering the same topics.
Mindful Money is sponsored by the following Asset Managers
51
Contact Details:
Stewart Conway Managing Director, The Social Business Group, Centro 3, 19 Mandela Street, London NW1 0DU
Email: Stewart.conway@socialbusinessgroup.com
All Work in this document remains the copyright of the Social Business Group as of 2011, publishers of MindfulMoney.co.uk
52