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FUTURE HORIZONSPresents
The Global
Semiconductor
Monthly Report
December 2009
Q4s Off To A Great Start
Is Plan B In Your Back Pocket?
In This Issue:Executive Overview ...................................................................................... 1
Market Summary ........................................................................................... 5
Industry Capacity ........................................................................................ 10
World Economic Round Up ........................................................................ 15
Russia/CIS Down In The Dumps.............................................................. 20
Economic Case Study Brazil: From Ruin To Reform............................... 22
Market Trends WiMax Mobile, Running Out Of Time?.......................... 25
Semiconductor Spotlight Semiconductor LEDs ....................................... 27
plus Exchange Rate Trends & FH Reports & Upcoming Events
Sign Up Now For IFS2010Future Horizons Annual Industry Forecast Seminar
Jan 26, London, England / Jan 27, Geneva, Switzerland(Visit Our Website www.futurehorizons.com for Further Details & Registration)
Future Horizons Ltd, 44 Bethel Road, Sevenoaks, Kent TN13 3UE, England
Tel: +44 1732 740440 Fax: +44 1732 740442Wholly-Owned Subsidiary In Moscow, Russia. Affiliates In Tokyo, Japan, Israel & San Jose, California, USA
www.futurehorizons.com e-mail: mail@futurehorizons.com
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The Global
Semiconductor
Monthly Report
December 2009
A CEO favourite, the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report provides
analysis and commentary on the global semiconductor industry and its impacton Future Horizons semiconductor market forecast, as published in the Annual
Semiconductor / Semiconductor Application Markets (previously called Key
Market Drivers) Reports. These three reports provide a comprehensive in-depth
analysis of the worldwide semiconductor, electronics equipment and economic
environment. Together they provide the latest information on developments in the
semiconductor industry, the companies involved, the changes in the markets, and
the impact of the global economic and political situation.
If you like this Report, by all means share it with your colleagues or post it on
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licence available for only 3,370 p/a. Please email Future Horizons onreports@futurehorizons.com. Please call too for pricing in UK or US$.
Copyright 2009 by Future Horizons, Republication Prohibited
The Global Semiconductor Industry Analysts
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval
systems, or transmitted in any form or by any means (mechanical, electronic,
photocopying, duplicating, microfilming, video-tape or otherwise) without the prior
written permission of Future Horizons. This information is not furnished in connection
with a sale offer to sell securities, or in connection with the solicitation of an offer to buy
securities. This firm and/or its officers, stockholders, or members of their families may,
from time to time, have a position or may sell or buy such. The information contained in
this report has been derived from statistical and other sources deemed to be reliable butits completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are based on
our studies and interpretations of available information. They reflect our judgement at
that time and are subject to future change. Whilst the report has been prepared in good
faith, Future Horizons bears no responsibility for any consequences whatsoever aroused
to the buyer through the reading of, or acting upon, any data or information, etc.
contained in the report.
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Executive Overview
Figure E1 shows the 12/12 worldwide monthly growth rates for IC sales in dollars,
units and ASP for January 1997 to October 2009 inclusive. They need to be
looked at in conjunction with the other 12/12 and rolling 12-month charts
provided in the Market Summary section of this report.
October set the fourth quarter off with a blast, with IC units up 9.2 percent versus
the same period last year and a staggering 22.8 percent versus September 2009.
More importantly ASPs were up 5.3 percent versus October 2008, bringing the
October 12:12 growth in value to plus 15.1 percent. This is the first such positive
growth since July 2008. Octobers strength also makes our 3 percent fourth
quarter growth incredibly conservative, with no sign at all of a near-term industry
bust. With industry struggling to keep pace with second half-year demand, there
has been no chance yet for inventories to be replenished after their Q4-08/Q1-09
purge. We are now condemned to enter 2010 with tight fab capacity and no
excess stock. Already device lead times are starting to feel the pinch; no one we
speak to yet believes what the data is saying.
Figure E1 - 12/12 Worldwide IC Monthly Growth Rates
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-97
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-98
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-99
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-00
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-01
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-02
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-03
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-04
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-05
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-06
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-07
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-08
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-09
Apr
Jul
Oct
IC UnitsIC Value
IC ASP
Total IC Units ASP Value
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 9.2% 5.3% 15.1%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 22.8% -7.7% 13.4%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
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Figure E2 shows the 12:12 monthly total semiconductor sales trend versus our
2009 forecast. Ignoring the structurally (and typically) wild individual monthly
fluctuations which simply means no single months data is a good indicator of
the underlying trends Octobers result places us safely within our current minus
10 percent 2009 growth estimate.
Having said that, even this revised estimate is now looking too pessimistic given
future monthly 12:12 numbers will be measured against a dynamic whereby the
2009 numbers are trending up whereas the 2008 numbers were trending down,
amplifying the impact of the 2009 positive monthly trends. We are on track for
November to be the month when the monthly 12:12 growth rate breaks back intopositive territory, as predicted in our October 2009 Report (Augusts WSTS data).
Figure E2 2009 12:12 Monthly Forecast Sales Trend
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Jan 2009
vs Jan
2008
Feb 2009
vs Feb
2008
Mar 2009
vs Mar
2008
Apr 2009
vs Apr
2008
May
2009 vs
May
2008
Jun 2009
vs Jun
2008
Jul 2009
vs Jul
2008
Aug 2009
vs Aug
2008
Sep 2009
vs Sep
2008
Oct 2009
vs Oct
2008
Nov 2009
vs Nov
2008
Dec 2009
vs Dec
2008
2009Growth
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Monthly12:12G
rowthRate
2009 F'Cast Value
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons
Based on Octobers data, it is now very difficult to see anything less than a 20
percent growth year for the semiconductor market in 2010 (our current forecast
still look at plus 22 percent, as reported in last months Report) just based on the
current industry momentum (i.e. a fourth quarter growth of around 6 to 7 percent)
and a very average quarterly growth pattern for 2010. Indeed we are now
starting to see the first industry guidance revisions that tend to indicate even this
range might be low.
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For sure the global economic outlook is worryingly fragile and there are many
structural problems remaining largely unresolved. There are also new sources of
volatility to be dealt with but the emerging economies are still in much better
structural shape than the over-indebted rich world and these will continue to grow
at around twice the rate of the established world economies, a structural trend that
first started around 20 or so years ago.
Despite these macro economic concerns and unknowns, the fact of the matter is
whilst there is an obvious link between the chip market and global economic
growth rates this relationship is statistically very weak. The semiconductor
market growth rate can thus fare much better (or for that matter much worse) thanthat of the overall economy due to the fact other factors such as ASPs, under/over
capacity and inventory adjustments play a critical determining role in the overall
market behaviour.
It is also important to remember that the absolute size of the world economy is
still very big similar in size to what it was in 2007 and there was no chip
market bubble preceding the 2009 downturn. Yet no one I have spoken to has any
real confidence in our analyses or the numbers, or for that matter in the longer-
term industry outlook!
This attitude is clearly entrenched in the recent WSTS fall 2009 forecast,
published only a few weeks ago, which calls for a 0.5 percent growth in Q4-09and 12.2 percent growth in 2010. This is also pretty much where the global
industry consensus currently sits. The current reality is very different.
For only 0.5 percent growth in Q4 means a market size of US$62.2 billion. With
October already at US$22.1 billion, November plus December would be only
US$40.2 billion. This means both must be lower than Octobers run rate, which
would indicate the market had already now peaked. There is absolutely no
evidence to support this position; quite the opposite in face, there is every reason
to believe that the market is strengthening, not weakening.
Even if Q4 were 0.5 percent growth, to then have only 12.2 percent growth in
2010 would require a quarterly growth pattern of something like: Q1 = -4 percent /Q2 = +0 percent / Q3 = +8 percent / Q4 = +2.5 percent. This implies a market
collapse in the first half of 2010 followed by a very slow recovery for the second
half of 2010. This too is not what is currently being experienced. There is no
company out there experiencing or forecasting this kind of an outlook.
Even if November and December were flat versus October, Q4 would exhibit 6.4
percent growth over Q3. This now represents the bottom end of the likely range.
In reality the odds are growth will be in the 7 to 8 percent growth.
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Ignoring this upside, with Q4-09 at plus 6.4 percent growth, to keep 2010s
growth at the plus 12.2 level would need a 2010 quarterly growth rates of: Q1 = -6
percent / Q2 = -2 percent / Q3 = +5 percent / Q4 = +2 percent a truly
cataclysmic year and something that at this stage is simply not realistic.
Alternatively holding the original 2010 quarterly growth pattern constant but with
a 6.4 percent Q4-2009 increases 2010s growth from 12.2 to 18.8 percent, not a
whole lot different from our 22 percent number, Figure E3.
Figure E3 2010 Growth rate Scenarios
Secnario FH Scenario A FH Scenario B FH Scenario C FH Oct F'Cast WSTS Fall F'Cast WSTS Q4 Impact
Q1-09 44.221 44.221 44.221 44.221 44.221 44.221
Q2 51.711 51.711 51.711 51.711 51.711 51.711
Q3 61.929 61.929 61.929 61.929 61.929 61.929
Q4 63.787 65.025 66.264 65.882 62.238 65.892
2009 221.647 222.886 224.125 223.743 220.099 223.753
Q1-09 -15.3% -15.3% -15.3% -15.3% -15.3% -15.3%
Q2 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9%
Q3 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8%
Q4 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.4% 0.5% 6.4%
2009 -10.8% -10.3% -9.8% -10.0% -11.5% -10.0%
Q1-10 -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -4.0% -4.0%
Q2 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q3 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.3% 8.0% 8.0%
Q4 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5%
2010 22.4% 24.1% 25.7% 22.0% 12.2% 18.8%
Q1-10 62.511 63.725 64.938 64.564 59.749 63.256Q2 63.761 64.999 66.237 64.564 59.749 63.256
Q3 71.412 72.799 74.186 71.214 64.529 68.317
Q4 73.555 74.983 76.411 72.638 66.142 70.025
2010 271.239 276.506 281.772 272.981 250.168 264.855 Source: WSTS/Future Horizons
The chances are 2010 will show much stronger quarterly growth rates than our
current forecast is assuming, especially if prices start to harden during the first half
year due to shortages, increased lead-times and product allocations.
We remain absolutely convinced that the industry has lulled itself into a false
sense of security, which will hold for the first half of 2010 due to the normal firsthalf year seasonal slowdown, only to collapse with a vengeance under the second
half-years strength, by which time it will be impossible to do anything about it.
Only another major economic crisis can now derail the market recovery; in the
absence of such a calamity, the baseline numbers have never looked as strong.
Our New Years message to industry is thus, By all means plan your budget and
operations for a modest growth year but you better have a more aggressive Plan B
in your back pocket. Happy 2010 and a prosperous new decade.
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Market Summary
Figures M1 and M2 show the worldwide and European 12/12 industry growth
rates for ICs, Opto, and Discrete Devices from January 1998 to date. These show
the current month as compared with the same period 12 months ago, and are a
useful industry momentum indicator. Figures M3a-M3h show 15-month rolling
worldwide and European sales by major product category. Figure M4a-M4h show
the comparable worldwide unit and ASP trends.
Figure M1 - World Sales By Product Category 12/12 Growth Rate
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
IC Opto Disc
Figure M2 - Europe Sales By Product Category 12/12 Growth Rate
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
IC Opto Disc
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons
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Figure M3 - 12 Month Rolling Worldwide & Europe Sales By Product(Billions Of US$)
M3a - Total WW Semiconductor
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
M3b - Total Europe Semiconductor
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 13.8%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 14.9%
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 1.7%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 19.1%
M3c - Total WW IC
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
M3d - Total Europe IC
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 15.1%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 13.4%
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 1.8%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 16.6%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
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Figure M3 - 12 Month Rolling Worldwide & Europe Sales By Product (Cont)(Billions Of US$)
M3e Total WW Optoelectronics
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
M3f Total Europe Optoelectronics
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.23
0.25
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 7.9%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 25.1%
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 -5.5%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 28.3%
M3g Total WW Discretes
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
A
ug
Sep
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Ja
n09
Feb
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Ju
n
Ju
l
A
ug
Sep
O
ct
M3h Total Europe Discretes
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.38
0.40
A
ug
S
ep
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Jan09
F
eb
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Jun
Jul
A
ug
S
ep
O
ct
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 7.7%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 21.9%
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 6.4%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 32.6%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
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Figure M4 - 12 Month Rolling Worldwide Unit Sales & ASPs By Product(Units In Billions & ASP In US$ Dollars)
M4a Total Semiconductor Units
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
M4b Total Semiconductor ASP
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 14.6%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 20.8%
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 -0.7%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 -4.9%
M4c Total IC Units
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
A
ug
Sep
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Ja
n09
Feb
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Ju
n
Ju
l
A
ug
Sep
O
ct
M4d Total IC ASP
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
A
ug
S
ep
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Jan09
F
eb
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Jun
Jul
A
ug
S
ep
O
ct
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 9.2%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 22.8%
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 5.3%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 -7.7%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
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Figure M4 - 12 Month Rolling Worldwide Unit Sales & ASPs By Product (Cont)(Units In Billions & ASP In US$ Dollars)
M4e - Total Optoelectronics Units
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
M4f - Total Optoelectronics ASP
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 29.7%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 28.7%
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 -16.9%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 -3.0%
M4g - Total Discretes Units
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
A
ug
Sep
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Ja
n09
Feb
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Ju
n
Ju
l
A
ug
Sep
O
ct
M4h - Total Discretes ASP
0.055
0.060
0.065
0.070
0.075
0.080
0.085
A
ug
S
ep
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Jan09
F
eb
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Jun
Jul
A
ug
S
ep
O
ct
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 13.4%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 17.7%
Oct 2009 vs Oct 2008 -5.0%
Oct 2009 vs Sep 2009 3.6%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
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Industry Capacity
Overall MOS wafer fab capacity decreased a further 0.7 percent in Q3 versus Q2-
09, from 1890k 200mm equivalent wafer starts per week to 1877k, Figure C1.
Only 300mm leading edge capacity showed any increase in the quarter, at around
6.7 percent growth, Table C1 and Figures C2 and C3. These cutbacks add to the
previous quarters 2.7 percent decline and compared with a 1.1 percent quarterly
growth this time last year.
Whilst some of the decline can be attributed to closing of older lines due to the
recession, new lines were also affected as a direct result of the deliberate
slowdown in capital expenditure that began mid-2007 before the recession started
is now really starting to bite. Overall MOS capacity is now on a par with where it
was in the first half of 2007.
Figure C1 - MOS Wafer Fab Capacity By Feature Size(200mm Equ Wafer Starts/Week x000)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
1Q -05 2Q -05 3Q -05 4Q -05 1Q -06 2Q -06 3Q -06 4Q -06 1Q -07 2Q -07 3Q -07 4Q -07 1Q -08 2Q -08 3Q -08 4Q -08 1Q -09 2Q -09 3Q -09
200mmEquWSpWx
100
0.7m & A bo ve < 0.7m t o 0.4m < 0.4m t o 0.3m < 0.3m t o 0.2m
< 0.2m to 0.16m < 0.16m to 0.12m < 0.12m to 0.08m < 0.08m
Table C1 Q3-09 vs Q2-09 Wafer Fab Capacity Increase By Wafer SizeWafer Technology wsw (k) Q3 vs Q2
Total MOS -12.8 -0.7%
200mm Wafers in MOS Total -12.9 -1.9%
300mm Wafers In MOS Total 64.1 6.7%
150mm & Below Wafers in MOS Total -64.0 -25.4%
BIPOLAR (5 inch equivalents) -21.1 -14.2%
TOTAL IC's (8 inch equivalents) -21.1 -1.1%
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
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Figure C2 - MOS Wafer Fab Capacity By Wafer Size(200mm Equ Wafer Starts/Week x000)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
1Q-05 2Q-05 3Q-05 4Q-05 1Q-06 2Q-06 3Q-06 4Q-06 1Q-07 2Q-07 3Q-07 4Q-07 1Q-08 2Q-08 3Q-08 4Q-08 1Q-09 2Q-09 3Q-09
150mm & Under 200mm 300mm
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
Figure C3 - MOS Wafer Fab Mix By Feature Size(200mm Equ Wafer Starts/Week x000)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q-05
2Q-05
3Q-05
4Q-05
1Q-06
2Q-06
3Q-06
4Q-06
1Q-07
2Q-07
3Q-07
4Q-07
1Q-08
2Q-08
3Q-08
4Q-08
1Q-09
2Q-09
3Q-09
200mmEquWSpWx1000
0.7m & Above < 0.7m to 0.4m < 0.4m to 0.3m < 0.3m to 0.2m< 0.2m to 0.16m < 0.16m t o 0.12m < 0.12m to 0.08m < 0.08m
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
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At 644.8k wafer starts per week, Q3-09 200mm capacity continued its absolute
value decline, from 679.7k in Q2-09, a fall of 1.9 percent. 200mm capacity is
now down 21.1 percent versus the same period last year.
300mm wafers now account for 54.5 percent of the total MOS capacity, up from
50.7 percent in Q2-09 and 47.6 percent from the same period last year. 300mm
wafers now account for over half the total capacity, with 200mm in second place
at 35.5 percent, down from 36.0 percent in Q2-09 and 39.4 percent in Q3-08.
Advanced capacity (i.e. 0.08 micron and below) grew 6.1 percent or 55.9k 200mm
equivalent wafer starts per week, Figure C4, similar to last years equivalent 7.7
percent growth.
Figure C4 - MOS Wafer Fab Life Cycle By Feature Size(200mm Equ Wafer Starts/Week x000)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1Q-99
3Q-99
1Q-00
3Q-00
1Q-01
3Q-01
1Q-02
3Q-02
1Q-03
3Q-03
1Q-04
3Q-04
1Q-05
3Q-05
1Q-06
3Q-06
1Q-07
3Q-07
1Q-08
3Q-08
1Q-09
3Q-09
0.7m & Above < 0.7m to 0.4m < 0.4m to 0.3m < 0.3m to 0.2m
< 0.2m t o 0.16m < 0.16m to 0.12m < 0.12m to 0.08m < 0.08m
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
As predicted in our Q1-09 capacity review (June 2009 Report), due to the capacity
cutbacks and recovering IC demand, total MOS IC Q3-09 utilisation rates
continued their Q2-09 bounce back reaching 87.0 percent, Figure C5. The
comparable figure for Q3-08 was 87.5 percent. Advanced IC capacity, i.e. 0.08
micron and below, also rebounded reaching 94.2 percent (from 90.2 percent in
Q2-09), Figure C6, whilst 300mm and 200mm wafers checked in at 96.1 percent
(Q2 = 91.9 percent) and 80.2 percent (Q2 = 72.3 percent) respectively, Figure C7.
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Figure C5 - MOS Wafer Fab Capacity Utilisation(Percent Of Total)
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
1Q-99
1Q-00
1Q-01
1Q-02
1Q-03
1Q-04
1Q-05
1Q-06
1Q-07
1Q-08
1Q-09
200mmW
aferStarts/Week
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Utilisation
Total MOS Capacity Uti li sati on %
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
Figure C6 - Advanced MOS Wafer Fab Capacity Utilisation(Percent Of Total)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1Q-99
1Q-00
1Q-01
1Q-02
1Q-03
1Q-04
1Q-05
1Q-06
1Q-07
1Q-08
1Q-09
200mmWa
ferStarts/Week
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Utilisation
A dv an ced MOS Cap acit y Utilis at io n %
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
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Figure C7 - MOS 200mm & 300mmWafer Fab Capacity Utilisation(Percent Of Total)
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q-99
1Q-00
1Q-01
1Q-02
1Q-03
1Q-04
1Q-05
1Q-06
1Q-07
1Q-08
1Q-09
200mm Utilisation % 300mm Utilisation % Full Capacity
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
As already mentioned, the fall in Q4-08/Q1-09 utilisation rates was the result of
the massive order cancellations and demand collapse triggered by the September
2008 Lehman Bros collapse and was much faster and deeper than the 2001 dot-
com driven recession. The Q2/Q3-09 bounce back reflected the start of the
inevitable correction from this massive over-reaction, aided and abetted by a
fundamental lack of overall capacity.
Given the significant cutbacks in cap ex since mid-2007, we expect to see
utilisation rates remain at these levels throughout the first half of 2010, tightening
still further during the second half of the year. For utilisation rates to be so high atthe beginning of the recovery cycle has no historic precedent.
2009s Cap Ex spend remains at ludicrously low levels with no significant
increase anticipated until mid-2010. That means capacity will be tight through at
least mid-2011. We have said it before and we say it again. There will not be
enough 2010 capacity in place to meet demand, 2011 will be even worse this is
a serious fab shortage about to happen. It will kill the fashionable - but
fundamentally flawed - fab lite strategy stone dead.
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World Economic Round Up
World Economy
The worlds developed economies emerged from recession in the third quarter.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says
growth and recovery are expected in 2010 in just about all world regions. For its
30 member countries, rich nations including the US and UK, it has more than
doubled its growth forecast to 1.9 percent for the next year, from 0.7 percent.
However, the OECD warns progress will not be a smooth ride.
The main danger for economic recovery among rich nations is highunemployment. Experts predict unemployment may continue to rise within the
European Union until 2011, whilst in America it is only slightly better news with
people predicted to lose their jobs at a faster rate than they are created until
sometime in the first part of 2010. The OECD has warned governments reducing
stimulus too early may be costly later.
However, there is a very different outlook for emerging nations; Asia is leading
the recovery with India boasting a GDP of 7.9 percent. Brazil and South Korea
are set to rebound and expand by 5 and 4.5 percent in 2010. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the world to mitigate flaws in the dollar-based
global monetary system by reducing demand for dollar reserves and exploringalternative reserve assets.
There is an international call for China to appreciate the Renminbi. China has
kept the currency stable since summer 2008 but its link to the falling dollar has
left it acutely undervalued giving Chinas export sector an unfair trade advantage.
Long dated oil prices have risen to near US$100 a barrel in a sign that investors
expect high prices to return after the recession.
Lastly, worldwide investors have been left on edge following Dubais
announcement that its state-controlled holding company Dubai World would need
a six-month moratorium on its debt payments.
UK
The UK is the last G20 nation still in recession with the economy having
contracted for six consecutive months. Experts predict the economy will grow by
2.1 percent in 2010 and 4 percent in 2011. The Bank of England (BoE) forecast
growth to be slow hindered by weak bank lending and the governments need to
slash spending. October saw inflation rise to 1.5 percent. Inflation is predicted to
hit its 2 percent target, and growth will return in the medium term, signalling the
economy is ready to be weaned off its stimulus.
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At the end of October, public sector net debt stood at 829.7 billion. This jump in
inflation allowed the sterling to hit a two-month high vs euro. House prices are
currently rising at their fastest rate since 2006 and the number of mortgage
approvals rose for the 11th month in a row. In October, new car sales recorded
their biggest increase so far this year, helped by the car scrappage scheme.
Unemployment is still rising, although at a slower rate. There are now 2.46
million people without a job in the UK. Youth unemployment rose to 19.8
percent, a record high and 1.64 million claimed unemployment benefit in October.
Local authorities in Englands most deprived areas have been given 40 million in
attempt to tackle unemployment. Consumer borrowing through bank loans andhire purchase fell in October, signalling people are paying off loans rather than
saving during a time when interest rates are low.
Growth in British manufacturing activity slowed unexpectedly in November
leaving question marks over the longer-term outlook and the possibility of a
double-dip recession. However the Purchasing Managers Index for the service
sector rose in October to the highest level since before the credit crunch began.
Retail sales rose 5.9 percent in October compared to a year earlier. Interest rates
will be kept at the record low of 0.5 percent.
North America
The US economy grew at a seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent annual rate in the third
quarter from the previous quarter. Growth is expected in the fourth quarter at 3.1
percent but economists believe high unemployment, insignificant wage rises,
weak job growth and low consumer spending will make the US recovery weak
and erratic. Unemployment hit a record high in October at 10.2 percent, its
highest since 1983. The rate fell back to 10 percent in November as the economy
shed the fewest jobs since the recession started two years ago.
However the US has a long way to go before they start growing jobs and getting
Americans back to work. The Federal Reserve (Fed) affirmed its plan to keep
interest rates low for an extended period and purchase mortgage backed
securities in order to spur growth. The rest of the world are challenging these policies warning that the zero-percent fed-funds rate were flooding Asia with
excess dollars, causing asset bubbles and undercutting global growth.
Meanwhile October saw new home sales unexpectedly climb. Sales of single-
family homes increased 6.2 percent and consumer spending, a key growth
indicator, bounced back to rise 0.7 percent. Added to this, unemployment benefits
declined by 35,000 to 466,000 in November, which was the lowest claim figure
since September 2008. In a sign that the economy remains sluggish, demand for
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long-lasting goods unexpectedly fell in October and a barometer of capital
spending by businesses tumbled. Manufacturers orders for durable goods
decreased 0.6 percent along with demand for military goods.
The US has regularly expressed their desire for a strong dollar but it seems they
are doing nothing to arrest its slide. The dollar is likely to remain weak and
economists believe that if the value of the dollar was raised, the Fed would also
need to raise rates, thereby increasing the return investors get on dollar assets.
However, that could hurt the economys recovery, which is threatened by
weakness in the labour market and tight bank lending.
Europe
The Eurozone economy has emerged from recession after a modest growth of 0.4
percent between July and September (third quarter), marking an end to five
quarters of recession. Recovery will be slow with expansion predicted at just 1
percent in 2010. Powering the rebound are Germany and Italy, who saw GDP rise
by 0.7 percent and 0.6 percent respectively. Austria and Slovakia also emerged
from recession in the third quarter but France and Germany grew by less than
expected.
Rising unemployment, the end of government stimulus measures and the strong
euro are set to weigh on Europes recovery in 2010, although it is unlikely they
will fall back into recession immediately. The Eurozone recovery out of recession
will be patchy, for example the UK is on track to shrink 4.6 percent this year and
expected to grow 0.9 percent in 2010 and again 1.9 percent in 2011 outpacing the
Eurozone, whilst countries such as Spain and Ireland are forecast to remain in
recession until 2011.
Eurozone industrial production rose 0.3 percent in the third quarter, although
lower than expected it still points to strong production gains overall. Industry
experts warn unemployment in the Eurozone may continue to increase after the
economy recovers. Brussels have called for 13 members of the European Union
to get their budget deficits back in line. EU requirements mean they should not
have exceeded 3 percent of GDP, however since the financial crises mostcountries have broken this rule.
The euro climbed past US$1.51 in November with economists warning that this
could cause exports to suffer, especially if demand outside the currency zone
softens as expected. The European Central Bank are keeping Interest rates at 1
percent. Inflation appears to be settling at around an annual 0.5 percent in the near
term, but experts believe it will rise in 2010.
India
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Indias economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate of 7.9 percent in the three
months to September (the predicted rate was 6.3 percent), compared to the same
period last year. The growth was helped by government stimulus spending, a
boost in manufacturing, services and agriculture output. However this does not
take into account the poor monsoon season. This growth will allow India to ease
back on its stimulus efforts in 2010.
Octobers inflation rate was 1.34 percent and experts believe it will climb to 6.5
percent by March 2010. Due to the droughts, prices of food have climbed and
prices of manufactured goods have inched up as the global economy has found its
footing. India has cut its interest rates to 4.75 percent in the last year, keepingIndias factories and mines busy as the low interest rates and stimulus packages
have stirred demand for automobiles, steel and cement. Exports have pulled out
of their slump and overseas investors-drawn by Indias strong economic
fundamentals have poured billions into the countrys stock market.
Japan
Japans economy rebounded in the third quarter by 1.2 percent in the three months
from July to September. The growth was fuelled by government stimulus
measures and exports to their rapidly growing Asian neighbours. Stimulus
measures were credited with lifting consumer spending and capital spending rose
but analysts say growth will slow as wages stay low and jobs remain scarce.
Japanese companies capital expenditure fell at a faster than expected rate of 24.8
per cent from a year earlier in the quarter ending September. A rising yen and
signs of deflation prompted managers to hold off on new investment. This is
predicted to cut Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from its previous 4.8 percent
figure. Deflation tends to weigh on capital spending and Japans financial
minister has commented that deflation is getting very severe. During the third
quarter, the domestic demand deflator (a measure of changes in prices of good and
services except exports and imports) fell 2.6 percent, its fastest pace since 1958.
Japan has a history of struggling with deflation; the 1990s is referred to as
Japans Lost Decade because of its ten year struggle with deflation. This returnof deflation, the first time since 1996, will dampen confidence. Japan has agreed
to a 7.2 trillion yen (US$81 billion) stimulus plan to prevent the countrys
economy slipping back into recession and combating deflation.
Yet many economists are sceptical whether the stimulus package will be effective
in doing so. The yen recently hit a 14 year high against the dollar, making
Japanese exports more expensive in the US and global markets. The Bank of
Japan (BoJ) kept interest rates unchanged at 0.1 percent.
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China
Chinas economy is ending the year on a strong note laying the foundations for a
solid expansion in 2010. They have largely recovered from the global downturn
thanks to aggressive pro-growth measures adopted a year ago. Economists believe
China is on track to reach the forecasted 11 percent Gross Domestic Product
growth.
Manufacturing is gaining greater steam and experts predict Chinese domestic
product to grow by more than 10 percent this quarter compared with a year earlier.
Although exports were down 13.8 percent in October from a year earlier, this was
a smaller decline than the 15.2 percent in September. Economists predict exportswill increase further in December and expand more than 8 percent in 2010.
There is also good news for the employment market and November 2009 figures
show employers demand for workers rising 14.2 percent in the third quarter from
a year earlier, the first increase after four straight quarters of decline. Economic
data also suggests that industrial production grew year on year at a level faster
than expected. Retail sales also rose by more than analysts had predicted, while
consumer prices continued to fall.
China needs to concentrate on boosting domestic demand for products its factories
manufacture, as it is unlikely to be able to rely on US consumers in the years
ahead in the same way it could before the financial crises. Finally, there is
pressure on China from the US, Europe and the IMF to allow its currency to
strengthen as a way to get Beijing to boost domestic demand and to rely less on
exports, they argue such rebalancing is necessary to produce more sustainable
global growth.
Asia Pacific
Rising inflation is posing a threat to South Asia. In the third quarter of 2009,
inflation in South Asia, comprising of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh,
Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives, hit an average 10.9 percent
compared to just 2.9 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. It appears thesituation is most worrying in the Maldives where a foreign currency black market
has emerged and their budget deficit is predicted to be 33 percent by the end of the
year. Indias economic stability and growth will be hampered by its widening
budget deficits.
Dubai who placed itself as a trading and tourism hub with global ambitions has
said it would have to delay repaying some of its debt, asking creditors of the state-
owned Dubai World and Nakheel to agree to a standstill on billions of dollars of
debt as a first step towards restructuring.
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The result was the Dubai main stock markets falling at least 7 percent, a decrease
in both Asias and Europes share markets and the biggest underlying fear is that
Dubais problems could reignite the financial turmoil of the credit crisis. That
would lower global demand for a whole range of commodities, including oil.
On a more positive note, Singapore has declared its recession over after two
straight quarters of growth. Singapores economic outlook for 2010 will be
closely linked to global conditions.
Russia/CIS Down In The DumpsThe ex-communist economies have not collapsed, but finding new ways to catch
up with the West will prove difficult. Even at the height of the ex-communist
countries boom in 2006, almost half of their citizens felt that living conditions
were worse than in 1989. Despite this, the glum verdict on 17 years of
liberalisation, privatisation and stabilisation was tempered by another finding.
Most of those polled by the World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction
and Development (EBRD) said they were optimistic about their childrens
prospects.
The worry is, that the global economic crisis has dented confidence in the future
and intensified gloom about the present. Fast growth eased dissatisfaction withcorrupt politicians and bossy bureaucrats but at least it offered the chance of better
health care and education, which lags far behind western standards. The average
decline in Gross Domestic Profit (GDP) during 2009 is a huge 6.2 percent and
recovery is expected to be slow. East Europeans face higher taxes, bigger debts,
less public spending, lower pay and fewer jobs. They do not have the same shock
absorbers as in the west - which is where, in the eyes of many, the crisis
originated.
That could prove a toxic mix, yet so far the fallout has been limited. After initial
hesitation, support from the European Union, the IMF and other lenders was
unprecedented in size, scope and speed. Tens of billions of dollars of outsidersmoney staved off a catastrophe and so far, no currencies have collapsed; no
country has defaulted; no banks have faced runs or been cut adrift by foreign
owners. Politicians preaching protection, state control or other charlatanism have
remained on the fringes. In its latest annual transition report, the EBRD says
reform has largely stalled, but not reversed. In countries such as Latvia and
Hungary, governments have shown a masochistic delight in following IMF
prescriptions for fiscal tightening, even at the cost of likely electoral oblivion.
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It makes little sense to talk of the ex-communist countries as a single region.
Resource-dependent economies such as Russia and Kazakhstan have one set of
problems, such as diversifying and spending export revenues wisely. Open
manufacturing economies such as Hungary and Estonia have another, chiefly,
maintaining competitiveness. Poland, bolstered by strong domestic demand, will
be the only economy in the EU to grow during 2009, although the worry here is its
rising public debt. Two ex-communist countries, Slovenia and Slovakia, have
already adopted the euro and Estonia may be next. Countries to the east and south
tend to be poorer, more miserable and not as well run.
For those in, or close to the EU, growth came from strong exports of goods andservices and big inflows of capital. The net effect was beneficial but the
disadvantages are now apparent with heavy dependence on single industries, e.g,
cars in Slovakia, and on west European demand. Foreign capital inflows may
have been too big or too quick, leading to a consumption and construction splurge,
which then fuelled reckless lending to firms and households, often in foreign
currencies. Inflows of money from abroad have fallen dramatically, or in some
cases even reversed. The volume of syndicated loans going to the region has
fallen to roughly a sixth of the pre-crisis level. Restarting these capital flows is a
high priority - preferably with more prudent rules for the credit market.
Running alongside this problem is another, which is finding a way to share the
pain of restructuring private-sector debts among governments, borrowers and
bankers. Dealing with the product of past excesses causes policymakers much
thought searching. Debt overhangs of over 100 percent of GDP in some countries
will curb growth in future years, which will hurt everyone.
Outside support has headed off a vicious circle of falling exchange rates, lower
investor confidence and failing banks, although that may still loom in Ukraine,
where vote-hungry politicians have just shredded a deal with the IMF. Many
states face another grim outcome, years of low growth caused by uncompetitive
exchange rates and sluggish productivity. That is what happened to Portugal after
it joined the euro in 1999. For ex-communist countries in the euro, pegged to it or
hoping to adopt it soon, the Portuguese example merits careful study.
The ex-communist economies competitive advantage may have reduced, but it is
still a big asset. Cutting costs in Western Europe may produce more outsourcing
to the east but some also hope to find new niches based on brainpower and
creativity, while also making their countries work better. According to the EBRD,
four areas stand out.
Firstly will be improving the legal system. Slow and unpredictable justice is a
turn-off for foreign investors worried about contracts and property rights.
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Secondly, better regulation. Despite improvements from EU membership,
businesses still battle with profit-choking red tape. Thirdly there would be a better
social safety net. A feeling that life is unfair and precarious sharpens the divide
between winners and losers and risks political upsets. Fourthly is competition.
Informal barriers to entry and old networks of communist-era pals still keep bits of
the economy off limits to outsiders, at huge cost to efficiency.
Getting state institutions to function better is easier to discuss than to accomplish.
It has long been clear that intangible factors to do with national culture and levels
of social trust play a bigger role than explicit rules in ex-communist countries
fortunes. The EBRD highlights values, attitudes and practices in determiningwhat constitutes acceptable behaviour within a firm or by government officials.
Economics offers little guide to this.
Economic Case Study Brazil: From Ruin To Reform
Brazil is the largest national economy in Latin America and is the largest country
by geographical area, occupying nearly half of South America. It is the fifth most
populated country in the world (192 million) and has the worlds tenth largest
economy at market exchange rates and the ninth largest in Purchasing Power
Parity (PPP) which reflects the purchasing power of the same currency in differentcountries.
Although Brazil is a developing country it offers great opportunities for
investment, partnerships and commerce. Like most growing countries it naturally
faces difficulties, yet economists believe that providing it is able to hold its current
position of economic stability, it has the potential to become one of the worlds
five biggest economies by the middle of the century.
There is no denying Brazil has had its fair share of problems in the past. 1825 saw
Brazil become independent from Portugal bringing in a sudden flood of
manufacturers who intended to take advantage of this emerging market. Despite
this influx, real income per person remained stagnant throughout the 19th century.
The early 20th century did not prove to be any more fruitful. Inflation hit 2,489
percent in 1993, productivity growth went into reverse, and the country was left
with huge foreign debt. Crime therefore increased causing Brazil to be likened to
Nigeria.
The turnaround for Brazil came in 1994 with the Finance Minister, Mr Cardoso,
introducing a new currency, the Real. Within just one year the Real had curbed
price rises. 1999 saw the abandonment of the exchange-rate peg and the currency
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was allowed to float, allowing the central bank to concentrate on managing
inflation.
These reforms also brought about discipline to the governments finances, forcing
them to live within their means. It allowed them to pay off the majority of their
dollar-denominated foreign debt that caused instability every time the economy
wobbled. Inflation has always, and still is to an extent, been Brazils biggest
problem, however in 2006 they saw GDP outpace inflation for the first time in
over 50 years.
Despite the global economic melt down, Brazil has many good things going for it.
Fernando Henrique Cardosos reign from 1995-2003, created a stable and predictable macroeconomic environment in which business could flourish. New
President Luiz Incio Lula de Silva has kept these reforms whilst adding some of
this own. Whilst the rest of the world was on the brink of collapse, Brazil was
able to cut interest rates and inject money into the economy. The economy shrank
for only two quarters and is now growing again, and Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) is 30 percent up on the year before compared to 14 percent in other global
countries.
Exports are also booming, creating a new generation of tycoons. Major export
products range from sophisticated aircraft to coffee, and from to steel to corned
beef. The country has been expanding its presence in international financial andcommodities markets, and is regarded as one of the group of four emerging
economies called BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The biggest investment
boom in history is under way. In 2007 Brazil launched a four year plan to spend
US$300 billion to modernise its road network, power plants and ports, which will
help make future importing and exporting easier. In 2007 Brazil discovered a
large amount of offshore oil, likely to make them a big oil exporter by the end of
next decade.
Today Brazil has a well-developed organisation of science and technology. They
have both public and private research institutes allowing Brazil to become
involved in some very interesting projects e.g. plans are in the pipeline to build thecountrys first nuclear submarine. Brazil has become a research hub to companies
such as Motorola, Samsung, Nokia and IBM, who have all built large R&D
centres there.
Brazils relatively low costs and highly sophisticated skills of technical manpower
are indeed an attraction to setting up Research & Development and Investment.
More significantly is the Informatics Law, which exempts companies from certain
taxes of up to five percent of the gross revenue of high technology manufacturing
companies in the fields of telecommunications, computers and digital electronics.
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With global warming high on the worlds agenda, Brazil has the opportunity to
become a large ethanol supplier to developed countries who are looking for
alternative forms of fuel to reduce pollution. Brazil is currently producing dual
energy vehicles running on petrol or alcohol, or even a mixture of both. This
market is forecast to grow rapidly in the next few years, and Brazil more than any
other country, has exceptional conditions to become a large world supplier, as it
can make use of available land and highly developed technology in the sector.
Conversely, social and economic problems prevent Brazil from becoming an
effective global power. Despite its recent success in exporting, Brazil still views
free trade with suspicion. Its faith in Government intervention in business is high,even if it gets in the way of profit making and creating jobs. They are constantly
plagued by high interest rates and have a disinclination to save.
The volatile decades, which followed the 1970s oil shock, are still seen today in
the form of crime, poor education and health care and a dysfunctional legal
system. Interest rates are currently 8.75 percent, a rate higher than anywhere in
the world. Productivity growth is slow and if the government wants a long-term
loan in its own currency, it still has to link its bonds to inflation, making debt
expensive to service.
Other challenges include:
Brazils size usually requires exporters to develop a regional strategy
There are additional Brazil costs i.e. a Merchant Marine tax of 25 percent of
international freight
Poor infrastructure
Customs clearance in Brazil can be very time consuming
Despite these challenges, Brazil has made real progress. Regardless of being
criticised for having the highest global interest rates, rates have actually fallen
from an average of 764 percent between 1990-1995 to below 9 percent in 2009.
There is still a lot to be accomplished in terms of infrastructure, decreasingdeprivation and consistent government investment in policing and education.
Yet, Brazil presents unlimited business opportunities for domestic and foreign
investors. It has enormous economic potential, a diverse economy, and a huge
domestic market. Its natural commodities such as its large tropical forests, the
worlds biggest freshwater supply and extremely fertile land, all help to place
Brazil as one of the principal emerging countries to attract foreign direct
investment.
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Market Trends - WiMax Mobile, Running Out Of Time?
Mobile Wireless data access is already with us in the form of mobile, or cellular,
phones. Higher speed access is available using EDGE, W-CDMA and
developments of CDMA2000 1x. 3G has been evolving with higher data rates
available from High-Speed Download Packet Access (HSDPA) and High-Speed
Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA) was available in some areas during 2008 with
increasing availability in 2009. Further developments in the pipeline include LTE
and 4G, which will further increase bandwidth. These mobile phone based
technologies offer competition to WiMAX in the mobile broadband arena as
opposed to fixed line broadband replacement options.
WiMAX was originally designed for fixed wireless access and is based around a
new standard IEEE 802.16, it is also known as the WirelessMAN air interface.
This technology is to be used in the last mile in a Metropolitan Area Network
(MAN), and will deliver wireless performance comparable to cable, DSL and T1
wired connections. IEEE 802.16 is one of a hierarchy of standards that has been
created by the IEEE for the interoperability of wireless systems, Figure A1.
Uncertainty still remains on the suitability of WiMAX as a mobile technology.
Mobile radio technologies such as WDMA-HSDPA, LTE, CDMA EVDO,
IEEE802.20 or improved wireless LANs such as IEEE802.11n (in buildings) may
well give good broadband access and better mobility, Table A1.
Table A1 Wireless Mobile Broadband Technology ComparisonWiFi (N) WiMAX CDMA-HSDPA & EV-DO LTE
Data Throughput* 140 Mbits/second 20 Mbits/second 14 Mbits/second 50 Mbits/second
Rollout 2008-2011 2007-2012 2007-2010 2010-2014
Spectrum Unlicensed Licensed and Unlicensed Licensed Licensed
Voice Use
Medium (except
with QOS) Good with QOS
Good (medium using
packet)
Good (medium using
packet)
Deployment Cost Low near fixed lines Medium High High
Subscript ion Yes by use and flat Yes by use and flat fee Yes by use and flat fee Yes by use and f lat fee
Availability
Limited range from
base-station
Kilometres f rom
basestation
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Figure A1 Introduction of WiMAX into 4G Plans
Source: PicoChip/Future Horizons
Despite WiMAX infrastructure roll-out in South Korea, India, and the Middle
East, there has been delay following delay in the USA. The last but one delay was
instrumental in the US Sprint/Clearwire partnership breakup.
In other areas, such as in Europe, other projects are underway including the
PIPE/.Freedom4 rollout in the UK but with very sparse coverage compared to
other mobile broadband solutions. There are also concerns that there is little
spectrum available in Europe for additional mobile allocation. WiMAX
equipment suppliers including Alcatel Lucent and Samsung have had more
success in the Far East (Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam) and Africa rather
than in Europe and the USA.
Any delays in WiMAX deployment leaves a gap to be filled by improvements to
existing mobile broadband technology. Deployments of HSDPA are well
underway and it looks like LTE will be following closely on its heels during 2010.
The main argument for mobile WiMAX is that it would be cheaper and easier to
deploy. This has not proved to be true at least for deployment worldwide.
Spectrum is also needed for any mobile broadband technology (licensed or
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unlicensed) and there is little sign of many incumbent mobile operators with
available spectrum taking up the WiMAX option.
However, WiMAX is not yet dead despite these negative signs and we expect
WiMAX to grow through the next five years even though the next eighteen
months will be a testing time for this technology. Figure A2 shows the Future
Horizons unit production forecast for WiMAX consumer access boxes from 2004
to 2013. Production depends on increasing deployment by mobile operator
incumbents as well as new entrants to the mobile telecommunications business.
The economic downturn seen in 2008 and 2009 will delay higher growth till 2010.
Figure A2 Worldwide WiMAX Consumer Box Production, 2004-2013(Millions of Units)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
WiMAX Cons Box M.Units 0.35 0.55 1.20 1.55 3.10 4.65 9.30 16.12 29.01 44.96
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F
Source: Future Horizons
Semiconductor Spotlight - Semiconductor LEDs
LEDs have now become commonplace in backlighting for notebook PCs and TVs
replacing fluorescent backlighting in many cases. The use of these has grown from
about 8 percent to an estimated 29 percent this year. The popularity of the smaller
netbooks with smaller screens has been a key factor. LED use will spread to
larger screen formats and will represent the majority of backlight in these
applications during early 2012.
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In addition to these applications other LED lighting applications have also been
growing, especially in the last two years. As a response to this demand, Cree has
upped production capacity and staff this year. Other companies involved in LED
production include SemiLEDS, Philips Lumileds in Europe and Seol
Semiconductor of Korea.
LED lamps are now available that can replace incandescent or even fluorescent
lighting in some cases. It is already seen in flashlights, decorative lighting, traffic
lights, supermarket shelf lighting, automotive lighting and architectural displays.
Daytime Running Lights (DRLs) are likely to be more widely adopted by the
automotive industry. Canada and Scandinavia have been early adopters of DRLsand there is increasing evidence that DRLs are saving lives. Because of this,
DRLs may soon become law in other countries. In the drive to save energy,
customised LED DRLs will grow over the next few years and add to the other
lighting uses of LEDs in automotive applications.
Approximately twenty percent of global electricity consumption goes on lighting.
By 2020 at least half of this will be reduced by eliminating incandescent light
bulbs and their replacement by LED or fluorescent lamps as well as improved
lighting control. Summits like the current Copenhagen climate conference are
likely to strengthen this trend. The good news for the semiconductor industry is
that additional LED and semiconductor production will be needed to meetdemand.
Another application for LEDs is in test, measurement and medical applications.
The main use of LEDs in these equipments is in sensing, detection and analysis.
A common medical application for LEDs is in a sensor that attaches to a finger to
measure oxygen saturation levels in the blood.
LEDs can be made with either inorganic or organic semiconductors. The most
common LED is the inorganic type. White LEDs are made of an InGaN-GaN
structure that is covered with a yellowish phosphor coating. Since yellow light
stimulates the red and green receptors of the eye, the resulting mix of blue and
yellow light gives the appearance of white. These products are continuouslyimproving with several novel techniques being patented for high brightness and
ultra high brightness LEDs by the main competitors in the market, namely GE,
Osram and Philips.
Organic LEDs (OLEDs) are lighter in weight than inorganic equivalents, and
polymer LEDs have the added benefit of being flexible. OLEDs are used in
lighting and displays on curved surfaces such as lamps and wall decorations.
OLEDs are also found in mobile phones and multi-media players. Fully self-
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illuminating displays are available that use an OLED matrix and these are
currently available in some small screen TVs produced by Sony but these displays
are very expensive and require complex driver circuitry.
The brightness of an LED depends on its forward current, and this has to be
controlled tightly to avoid damage or severe reduction of lifetime. To meet this
requirement, there is a growing market for LED driver/current controllers supplied
by a number of companies including Cypress, Intersil, Maxim, Linear Technology,
National Semiconductors and Texas Instruments.
Although the LED market is growing, one of the barriers to wider adoption is
price. Despite the very high efficiency of LEDs in converting electrical energy tolight, they are currently four to five times the cost of an equivalent fluorescent
lamp. However, reducing costs of production in the future are almost certain if
the normal path of semiconductor development and competition holds true.
The current drive to save the planet will also help boost development and
uptake. On a more seasonal note, many more Christmas decorations supplied in
retail outlets this year, including Christmas tree lights, have LEDs instead of
incandescent lamps. In many senses of the word LEDs are, indeed, lighting the
way.
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Sign Up Now For IFS2010Future Horizons Annual Industry Forecast Seminar
IC ASP Growth Rate Transitions, 1978-2007IC ASP Growth Rate Peaks & Troughs, 1978-2007
$0.75$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Q1-78
Q1-79
Q1-80
Q1-81
Q1-82
Q1-83
Q1-84
Q1-85
Q1-86
Q1-87
Q1-88
Q1-89
Q1-90
Q1-91
Q1-92
Q1-93
Q1-94
Q1-95
Q1-96
Q1-97
Q1-98
Q1-99
Q1-00
Q1-01
Q1-02
Q1-03
Q1-04
Q1-05
Q1-06
Q1-07
Q1-08
Q1-09
-35%-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%ASP YoY %
IC ASP Growth Rate Transitions, 1978-2007IC ASP Growth Rate Peaks & Troughs, 1978-2007
$0.75$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Q1-78
Q1-79
Q1-80
Q1-81
Q1-82
Q1-83
Q1-84
Q1-85
Q1-86
Q1-87
Q1-88
Q1-89
Q1-90
Q1-91
Q1-92
Q1-93
Q1-94
Q1-95
Q1-96
Q1-97
Q1-98
Q1-99
Q1-00
Q1-01
Q1-02
Q1-03
Q1-04
Q1-05
Q1-06
Q1-07
Q1-08
Q1-09
-35%-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%ASP YoY %
IC ASP Growth Rate Transitions, 1978-2007IC ASP Growth Rate Peaks & Troughs, 1978-2007 IC ASP Growth Rate Transitions, 1978-2007IC ASP Growth Rate Transitions, 1978-2007IC ASP Growth Rate Peaks & Troughs, 1978-2007IC ASP Growth Rate Peaks & Troughs, 1978-2007
$0.75$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Q1-78
Q1-79
Q1-80
Q1-81
Q1-82
Q1-83
Q1-84
Q1-85
Q1-86
Q1-87
Q1-88
Q1-89
Q1-90
Q1-91
Q1-92
Q1-93
Q1-94
Q1-95
Q1-96
Q1-97
Q1-98
Q1-99
Q1-00
Q1-01
Q1-02
Q1-03
Q1-04
Q1-05
Q1-06
Q1-07
Q1-08
Q1-09
-35%-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%ASP YoY %
$0.75$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Q1-78
Q1-79
Q1-80
Q1-81
Q1-82
Q1-83
Q1-84
Q1-85
Q1-86
Q1-87
Q1-88
Q1-89
Q1-90
Q1-91
Q1-92
Q1-93
Q1-94
Q1-95
Q1-96
Q1-97
Q1-98
Q1-99
Q1-00
Q1-01
Q1-02
Q1-03
Q1-04
Q1-05
Q1-06
Q1-07
Q1-08
Q1-09
-35%-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%ASP YoY %
Now in its 12th year, Future Horizons annual forecast seminar is a vital link inour charter to provide industry with high quality, cost effective, market research.
Whether a seasoned veteran or industry newcomer, this seminar is invaluable to
executives from the semiconductor, electronics and related industries. The
analysis presented at our previous industry briefings has proved both accurate and
informative, and this years event promises to be no exception.
Seminar Programme Includes:
2010 Market Forecast The Key Factors Analysed
2011 Industry Outlook Blue Skies Or Stormy
Industry Application Drivers IC Content & Forecast
Market Outlook 5-Year Regional & Product Forecasts
Supply & Demand Wafer Fab Capacity Trends
Jan 26, London, England / Jan 27, Geneva, SwitzerlandFor more details and on-line registration visit: www.futurehorizons.com
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Exchange Rates
Figure R1 shows the weekly Euro exchange rate vs the US$ and UK for 2009.
Figure R2 shows the historical trend since its 1st Jan 1999 launch.
Figure R1 - 2009 Exchange Rate Trend(Euro vs. US$/UK)
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
Jan0
6-09
Jan2
7
Feb1
7
Mar0
9
Mar3
0
Apr2
0
May11
Jun0
1
Jun2
2
Jul13
Aug0
3
Aug2
4
Sep1
4
Oct0
5
Oct2
6
Nov1
6
Dec0
7
Dec2
8
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60/Euro $/Euro
Figure R2 - Exchange Rate History, 1999-To Date(Euro vs. US$/UK)
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
Jan1999
Jul
Jan2000
Jul
Jan2001
Jul
Jan2002
Jul
Jan2003
Jul
Jan2004
Jun
Jan2005
Jul
Jan2006
Jul
Jan2007
Jul
Jan2008
Jul
Jan2009
Jul
Dec28
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60/Euro $/Euro
Source: Financial Times/Future Horizons
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Annual Semiconductor Report
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Semiconductor Application
Markets ReportUpdated Annually - Over 450 Pages / 320 Figures & Tables
Digital TVHDD
Mobile
Phone
Navigation
DigitalStill Camera
Amusement
STB
H/PC
PDA
10:30
DigitalTV
DVD Player
SOCSOC
EngineEngine
Annual Analysis & Forecast Of The Top
Semiconductor Applications For The
Worldwide Electronics & SC Industry(Previously Called The Key Market Drivers Report)
Topics Include (30 Top Applications Analysed)
Mobile Phone Handsets & GPS
Personal Computers & PDAs
Automotive Electronics & Robotics
Smartcards & RF-ID Tags
DVD Recorders & Players
Bluetooth, Wireless LANs & Wi-Fi
Digital STB & Still Cameras
Video Games Consoles
- Report Covers Around 90 Percent Of The Worldwide IC Market -
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European Fabless
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BoardChip
4 Mbit
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2 Mbit
DRAM
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DRAM
DISP
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I/F
Graphic
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Annual Strategic Analysis & Reference Guide For The
European Chipless & Fabless IC Design Industry(Previously Called The European Chipless & Fabless IC Design House Report)
Topics Include
European IC Design House Phenomenon
IC Design House Industry Drivers
IP Market Development
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Over 320 Design Companies Profiled (Europe & Israel)
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