Sismologia na era da comunicação digital

Susana Custódio

susana@fc.ul.pt

ESB, 23/Fev/2017

Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011

A nossa Terra

ETHZ-HPCSED

Placas litosféricas que se movem

NASA

O que é um sismo

ISC, 1960 – present

O que é um sismo?

Geração de ondas sísmicas

L. Matias, FCUL

[Hayes, Wald, et al.]

Destruição causada por sismos

Sichuan, China, M7.9, 2008

Haiti, M7, 2010

Christchurch, New Zealand, M6.3, 2011 Lorca, Espanha, M5.1, 2011

Mega-sismos: Sumatra, 2004, M9.1

Mega-sismos: Sumatra, 2004, M9.1

Perdas humanas e económicas

[Roger Bilham, Univ Colorado]

Como reduzir as perdas causadas pelos sismos?

REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)

Long-term Hazard Mapping

Long-term Forecasting

Short-term Forecasting

Early Warning ShakeMaps &

Rapid Loss

Aftershock Forecasting

Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours

Minutes to Days

Earthquake

Estimar os impactos dos sismos

decades years days

Early

W arning

Long- Term

Forecast ing

Short - Term

Forecast ing

& Predict ion

Long- term

Hazard

Mapping

ShakeMaps

&Rapid Loss

Assessm ent

0 m inutes

Ear thquake

seconds days/

m onths

Aftershock

Hazard

The different time scales of the

earthquake process

From an original figure of

Tom Jordan redrawn by

Stefan Wiemer

REAL-TIME SEISMOLOGY 1. Fonte

2. Propagação

3. Sítio

4. Vulnerabilidade & Inventário

REAKT

Sismologia em tempo real

Long-term Hazard Mapping

Long-term Forecasting

Short-term Forecasting

Early Warning ShakeMaps &

Rapid Loss

Aftershock Forecasting

Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours

Minutes to Days

Earthquake

REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)

Sismologia em tempo real com dados sísmicos

Kanamori, Nature 1997

Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?

Localização do Hipocentro (< 1 min)

SeisComP3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008 Guralp

Shakemaps (5-7 min)

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

• ‘Ground Motion

Prediction Equations’

(propagação das

ondas sísmicas)

• Interpolação entre

estações

Antecipar o movimento do solo

decades years days

Early

W arning

Long- Term

Forecast ing

Short - Term

Forecast ing

& Predict ion

Long- term

Hazard

Mapping

ShakeMaps

&Rapid Loss

Assessm ent

0 m inutes

Ear thquake

seconds days/

m onths

Aftershock

Hazard

The different time scales of the

earthquake process

From an original figure of

Tom Jordan redrawn by

Stefan Wiemer

REAL-TIME SEISMOLOGY 1. Fonte

2. Propagação

3. Sítio

4. Vulnerabilidade & Inventário

REAKT

Estimativa de danos

PAGER

M 7.8, IRAN-PAKISTAN BORDER REGIONOrigin Time: Tue 2013-04-16 10:44:20 UTC (15:14:20 local)

Location: 28.11oN 62.05

oE Depth: 82 km

PAGERVersion 6

Estimated Fatalities Estimated Economic Losses

Created: 7 hours, 31 minutes after earthquake

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake ShakingESTIMATED POPULATION

EXPOSURE (k = x1000)- -* - -* 135k* 2,600k* 1,682k 377k 2k 0 0

ESTIMATED MODIFIEDMERCALLI INTENSITY

PERCEIVED SHAKING Not felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Violent Extreme

POTENTIALDAMAGE

ResistantStructures

VulnerableStructures

none

none

none

none

none

none

V. Light

Light

Light

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate/Heavy

Moderate/Heavy

Heavy

Heavy

V. Heavy

V. Heavy

V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within the map area.

Population Exposure population per ~1 sq. km from Landscan

Orange alert level for shaking-related fatalities.Significant casualties are likely and the disasteris potentially widespread. Past events with thisalert level have required a regional or nationallevel response.

Yellow alert level for economic losses. Somedamage is possible. Estimated economic lossesare less than 1% of GDP of the Islamic Republicof Iran.

Structures:Overall, the population in this region residesin structures that are highly vulnerable toearthquake shaking, though some resistantstructures exist. The predominant vulnerablebuilding types are adobe block andunreinforced brick with timber floorconstruction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI levels):

Date

(UTC)

Dist.

(km)

Mag. Max

MMI(#)

Shaking

Deaths

1989-12-07 389 5.9 VIII(127) 0

1994-02-23 339 6.1 VII(508) 6

2003-12-26 386 6.6 IX(70k) 26k

Recent earthquakes in this area have causedsecondary hazards such as landslides thatmight have contributed to losses.

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage.Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/pager Event ID: usb000g7x7

Selected City Exposurefrom GeoNames.org

MMI City Population

VII Khash 70k

VI Zahedan 552k

VI Iranshahr 131k

VI Rudbar 11k

VI `Alaqahdari Dishu 9k

VI Mirabad 14k

V Zaranj < 1k

V Turbat 76k

V Zabol 122k

V Chah Bahar 47k

IV Gwadar 52kbold cities appear on map (k = x1000)

Sismologia em tempo real

Long-term Hazard Mapping

Long-term Forecasting

Short-term Forecasting

Early Warning ShakeMaps &

Rapid Loss

Aftershock Forecasting

Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours

Minutes to Days

Earthquake

REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)

Aviso Antecipado

Aviso Antecipado

1.

As primeiras ondas (P)

têm menor amplitude.

2.

As primeiras ondas (P)

contêm informação sobre

a magnitude dos sismos.

Allen et al, 2003

Aviso Antecipado

JMA

Aviso Antecipado

Allen et al, SRL 2009

REDES DE CIDADÃOS

“CITIZEN EMPOWERED SEISMOLOGY”

CROWDSOURCING

Did You Feel It?

IPMA

Did You Feel It?

Wald et al, AG 2012

M 4.2, VA M 4.4, CA

Detecção de sismos por acessos à página do EMSC

Detecção de sismos por acessos à página do EMSC

Bossu et al, AG 2012

Detecção de sismos por Tweets

Earle et al, AG 2012

“earthquake”, “gempa”, “temblor”, “terremoto”, “sismo”

Redes de MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical Systems)

Quake Catcher Network

O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas?

Clayton et al

O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas?

Clayton et al

O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas?

Clayton et al, AG 2012

E em Portugal?

As magnitudes dos sismos

Zoback and Gorelick, 2012

Fast Earthquake W arnings

Email SMS

Radio Fax

Telefone

Civil Protection

W arnings [ operator validat ion]

Delay after Origin Time: 3m40s Delay after 1º record: 3m31s Delay after minimum set of records (10): 2m43s

SeiscomP 2.6, SEISAN 8.1 (modified) and in-house software

Portugal: Hipocentro e Magnitude

Imagem cedida por F. Carrilho, IPMA

Shakemap: Portugal

Sentiu um sismo?

Alguns links…

• IPMA: – https://www.ipma.pt/pt/geofisica/sismologia/

• EMSC: – http://www.emsc-csem.org

– http://www.citizenseismology.eu/index.html#materials

• USGS: – http://earthquake.usgs.gov

Webpages

• PAGER: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/pager/

Aviso Antecipado

Aviso Antecipado

Ondas sísmicas

Um século de sismos

Ammon et al., SRL 2010

Detecção de sismos por Tweets

Earle et al, AG 2012

W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor)

Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

W-phase

Lockwood and Kanamori, G3 2006

W-phase

W phase source inversion group http://wphase.unistra.fr/

Onda de longo período (100 – 1000 s)

W-phase

Seth and Wyssession, Blackwell Publishing 2003

Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões

Source

Source

Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões

Source

Propagação das ondas

Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões

Source

Propagação das ondas

Modelado

Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões

Source

Propagação das ondas

Modelado

Dados

Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões

Source

Propagação das ondas

Modelado

Dados

Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões

W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor)

Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor)

Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Redes de MEMS

QCN

Mwp

Tsuboi, GRL 2000

W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor)

Actualização dos Shakemaps e dos danos previstos

Mapas de velocidade de pico cumulativa Terashake

Human and economic losses

[Roger Bilham, Univ Colorado]

This is how much

we borrowed

from Troika

Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?

Portugal: Factores de Amplificação

Teves-Costa et al, 2010

Determinação de Magnitudes

Bobby Motwani

Determinação de Magnitudes

SeisComp3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008

Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento

Source

Propagação das ondas

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Estimativa de danos

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

Magnitude

5-20 min

2-3 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

W-phase

20-50 min

5-7 min

5-20 min

Shakemaps

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

Modelos de Fonte Finita

Hayes et al., SRL 2011

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

Falha finita

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

Magnitude

5-20 min

2-3 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

>20 min

> 2 hr

5-10 min

20 min – 10 hr

W-phase

20-50 min

5-7 min

5-20 min

Shakemaps

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

Aviso Antecipado

Project REAKT, FP7

Aviso Antecipado

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33JI929aCS8 Courtesy of Aldo Zollo

T0

PRESTo PLUS Eqk

Epicenter

Vulnerable

Site

S-Waves

Station

Alert Level

Magnitude

Accelerograms P- and S-waves Windows

Depth

Courtesy of Aldo Zollo

Aviso Antecipado

Aldo Zollo

Did You Feel It?

Wald et al, AG 2012

Did You Feel It 1999 – 2011 1.6 million responses

USA Hazard Map 10%, PGA, 50 yrs

Wald et al, AG 2012

Did You Feel It?

Wald et al, AG 2012

A Terra por dentro

Wiley

Energy Released in Earthquakes

IRIS

Tectónica de placas

USGS

J. Renner

How much energy does a mega-earthquake release?

Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real?

Did You Feel It? Wald et al., AG 2012

3. Porque avança a ciência

Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real?

4. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência.

Global CMT

Localização do Hipocentro

Guralp

STA

LTA

• Ondas P

• Picks automáticos

Localização do Hipocentro

• Ondas P

• Picks automáticos

• Agregação de picks

• Actualização

automática

SeisComP3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008

Shakemaps

Input

Shakemaps

GMPE

(Groud Motion Prediction Earthquakes)

Shakemaps

Factores de Amplificação

Shakemaps

• Mapas de: – PGA

– PGV

– PGD

– SA

– Intensidade

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento

Domingues et al., GJI 2012

Detecção de sismos por Tweets

Earle et al, AG 2012

Redes de MEMS

Micro Electro Mechanical Systems

Sismologia na era da comunicação digital

Susana Custódio

susana@fc.ul.pt

Kan

amo

ri, Natu

re 19

97

ESB, 23/Fev/2017

Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real?

1. Porque reduz os danos materiais e humanos.

Communicating the warning Japan

TV and radio announcements

• 124 of 127 TV stations (98%) • 41 AM, 35 FM radio (75%)

J-Alert messages

• 226 municipalities receive the warnings • 102 announce them with public address systems

Cell phones

• 3 companies (Docomo, AU, Softbank) • 52 million can receive them (47%)

Dedicated providers serve

• power plants • factories • schools • hospitals

• shopping malls

earthquake location and

hazard

estimated shaking in your

area

Aviso antecipado, Japão Tohoku 2011 Courtesy of Richard Allen, UC Berkeley

Shakemap, M4.3 LA Worden et al., BSSA 2010

Shakemap Aviso Antecipado

Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real?

Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011

2. Porque queremos (e esperamos) saber rapidamente o que se está a passar.

Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real?

Ellsworth and Beroza Science, 1995

3. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência.

Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?

Ammon et al., SRL 2010

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

Magnitude

5-20 min

2-3 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

Magnitude

5-20 min

2-3 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

5-7 min

5-20 min

Shakemaps

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Estimativa de danos

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

Magnitude

5-20 min

2-3 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

5-7 min

5-20 min

Shakemaps

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

Magnitude

5-20 min

2-3 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

5-10 min

20 min – 10 hr

W-phase

20-50 min

5-7 min

5-20 min

Shakemaps

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

Falha finita

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

Magnitude

5-20 min

2-3 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

>20 min

> 2 hr

5-10 min

20 min – 10 hr

W-phase

20-50 min

5-7 min

5-20 min

Shakemaps

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento

Domingues et al., GJI 2012

Sismo TO Tempo

Redes Globais

Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos

Sismo TO

Redes Regionais

Portugal 3 min 5 min

Falha finita

2 hr 1 hr 30 min 15 min 5 min

Hipocentro

5-15 min

< 1 min

Magnitude

5-20 min

2-3 min

30 min 1 hr 15 min

5-7 min

5-20 min

Shakemaps

ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06

shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the

focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have

propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the

amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San

Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.

ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has

also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have

substantially better station control.

TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps

W-phase

20-50 min

>20 min

> 2 hr

5-10 min

20 min – 10 hr

Aviso Antecipado

1.

As primeiras ondas (P)

têm menor amplitude.

2.

As primeiras ondas (P)

contêm informação sobre

a magnitude dos sismos.

Allen et al, 2003

Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?