Post on 20-Aug-2019
Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Ketiga Tahun 2018
Gabenor
Bank Negara Malaysia
Ketua Perangkawan Malaysia
Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia
16 November 2018
Sidang Akhbar
Sidang akhbar akan meliputi:
Prestasi ekonomi pada suku ketiga tahun 2018
Perkembangan monetari dan kewangan
Isu khas dan inisiatif dasar Bank Negara Malaysia
2
High-frequency indicators show a moderating momentum in global
growth and trade activities
Source: Bloomberg, CPB, BNM estimates
Index %, yoy
Global Composite PMI
(Manufacturing and Services)
World Export Volume
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Jun-1
6
Aug-1
6
Oct-
16
De
c-1
6
Feb
-17
Apr-
17
Jun-1
7
Aug-1
7
Oct-
17
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug-1
8
Oct-
18
Regional Economies
Advanced Economies
> 50 = expansionary
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jun-1
6
Aug-1
6
Oct-
16
De
c-1
6
Fe
b-1
7
Apr-
17
Jun-1
7
Aug-1
7
Oct-
17
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug-1
8
Post-GFC avg. = 2.4
3
Many major and regional economies recorded slower GDP growth
in 3Q 2018
Regional Economies
2.9
2.2
1.2
6.7
6.2
5.3
4.54.1
3.3
2.83.0
1.71.5
6.56.1
5.2
4.4
2.62.3
2.0
US Euro area UK PR China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Singapore C. Taipei Korea
GDP, Annual change (%) GDP, Annual change (%)
2Q18 3Q182Q18 3Q18
Stable domestic demand amid moderating trade activities
• Investment supported by ongoing policy measures in selected economies,
with household spending increasingly weighed by higher oil-driven inflation
• Trade performance weighed by moderating global demand, amid
intensification of trade tensions
Advanced Economies
Source: National authorities, Haver
4
Expansion in domestic demand
• Labour market improvements supported
private consumption
• More moderate investment in the euro area
Malaysia’s GDP growth remained firm in 3Q 2018 despite global
headwinds and one-off supply shocks
Malaysia’s 3Q 2018 growth performance was characterised by:
Higher private
investment (6.9%)
• Increased spending in machinery
and equipment to cater to positive
demand
Lingering effects of
one-off supply
shocks
• Contraction in LNG and palm oil
production and exports
• Supply shocks lowered growth by
0.5 – 0.7 ppt
Robust household
spending (9.0%)
• Zerorisation of GST
• Strong employment & wage growth
• Positive consumer sentiments
5
-2
0
2
4
6
8
3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18
Agriculture Mining Construction
Manufacturing Services GDP Growth
The Malaysian economy expanded by 4.4% in 3Q 2018
On the demand side, growth continued to be
anchored by higher private sector spending
6.25.9 5.4 4.5 4.4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18
Private consumption Private investment Public consumption
Public investment Change in stocks Net exports
GDP growth
Annual change, % /
Ppt contribution to GDP1
Annual change, % /
Ppt contribution to GDP
On the supply side, services and manufacturing
sectors remained the key drivers of growth
1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties component
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
6
6.25.9
5.44.5 4.4
The Malaysian economy grew by 4.7% in the first three quarters, on
track to register a growth of 4.8% for 2018
In the absence of commodity shocks, growth
could have been 0.5 ~ 0.7 ppt higher
*Numbers do not sum up to 100 due to exclusion of import duties
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and BNM estimates
Annual change, %
Real Gross Domestic Product
7
5.4
4.5 4.44.2
5.9 5.0 5.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1Q 2Q 3Q
2016 2017 2018
Estimated Impact of Commodity-Related ShocksActual GrowthEstimated Growth (excl. Commodity-Related Shocks)
• For the first three quarters of 2018,
82%* of the economy grew by 6.2%
• 17%* of the economy (agriculture,
mining and quarrying) contracted
by 1.3%
Growth in other sectors (82% of the economy)
continued to be firm
Moderation in exports and imports
External Trade
(Annual change, %)
Share, %
(2017)2017
2018
1Q 2Q 3Q
Gross exports 100 18.8 5.5 8.3 5.2
Domestic
exports1 85 17.7 -1.0 0.2 -0.2
Manufacturing 82 18.6 8.3 10.7 7.4
E&E 37 19.2 11.8 9.8 10.7
Non-E&E 45 18.1 5.6 11.4 4.7
Commodities 17 18.0 -6.1 -3.8 -3.0
Gross imports 100 19.7 -0.7 8.5 6.3
Intermediate 57 20.0 -10.5 -4.7 -1.5
Capital 14 15.3 -13.0 11.7 1.1
Consumption 8 6.1 2.3 -2.8 5.5
Others 21 28.9 37.6 51.6 32.0
Trade balance
(RM bil)- 98.5 33.4 27.1 25.2
Higher E&E exports amid a smaller decline in
commodity exports
Going forward, export growth will remain
supported by:
Recovery of commodity output(e.g. CPO and LNG)
Higher production capacity(especially E&E and primary related manufacturing)
Continued demand from major trade partners(United States, regional economies)
1 Domestic exports is defined as gross exports excluding re-exports. This is a newly published time series data by the Department of Statistics Malaysia.
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
8
Current account registered a surplus of RM3.8 billion
Current account supported by goods surplus
Current account balance
Current account to remain in surplus
going forward
• Sustained goods surplus
– Continued global demand and
support from commodity exports
• Services and income accounts to
remain in deficit
– Continued reliance on foreign service
providers
– Sizeable income accrued to foreign
investors
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
1.2 1.1
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18
% of GNIRM billion
Goods
Services
Primary Income
Secondary Income
Current Account Balance, % of GNI (RHS)
9
In the first 3 quarters of 2018, Malaysia’s
current account registered a cumulative
surplus of RM22.7 billion (or 2.2% of GNI)
Monetary and Financial Developments
10
Headline inflation declined during the quarter and is expected to be
low in 2018
• Headline inflation declined mainly due to
the impact from the GST zerorisation
• The annual average headline inflation
will be low in 2018
• Going forward, headline inflation is
projected to increase primarily due to
higher projected global oil prices and the
floating of domestic fuel prices
– While the impact of the consumption tax
policy will contribute to higher inflation in
2019, it will lapse towards the end of the
year
– Underlying inflation is expected to
remain contained
*Note: Core inflation, which is a measure of underlying inflation, excludes the estimated direct impact of the GST zerorisation
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
Contribution to Headline Inflation by Component
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2017 2018
Net impact of consumption tax policy changesOther price-administered itemsFuelPrice-volatile items (e.g. fresh food items)Core inflation (ppt)Headline inflation (%)Core inflation* (%)
%, percentage points
11
Monetary policy remains accommodative and supportive of the
economy
• The Malaysian economy is expected to
remain on a steady growth path
‒ Rising risks to the global growth could
cause headwinds to the domestic
economy
• Headline inflation is expected to increase
in 2019
‒ Underlying inflation, however, will be
contained in the absence of strong
domestic demand pressures
• Domestic financial markets remain
orderly with domestic monetary and
financial conditions supportive of
economic growth
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
%
Overnight Policy Rate
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MPC maintained the Overnight Policy Rate
at 3.25% since the increase in January 2018
R
12
Financial institutions remained well-capitalised, with sufficient liquidity to support intermediation
Stress tests conducted by the Bank affirmed banks’ and insurers’ resilience to withstand severe
shocks under adverse macroeconomic and financial conditions
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
RM billion Ratio (%)
139.5
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
3Q
-16
4Q
-16
1Q
-17
2Q
-17
3Q
-17
4Q
-17
1Q
-18
2Q
-18
3Q
-18
Other stock of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA)
Ringgit surplus liquidity placed with BNM (incl. SRR)
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR, RHS)
LCR min. requirement (RHS)
2018 LCR minimum requirement
Liquidity coverage ratio and available liquid assetsTotal capital ratio
(%)
Capital adequacy
ratio (%)
3Q 20182Q 2018
Insurance/Takaful
Sector
Banking System
Sustained resilience of financial institutions continued to support
domestic financial stability
13
239.3 242.117.5
17.3
Growth of net financing remained supportive of economic activity
Financing to the private sector increased during
the quarter
*Net financing comprises outstanding banking system and DFIs loans; and outstanding corporate bonds
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Increase in growth of outstanding loans driven
by loans to both households and businesses
Contribution to Net Financing Growth*
6.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2016 2017 2018
Corporate Bonds
Banking System and DFI Loans
Total Net Financing
ppt, %
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2016 2017 2018
Total Businesses Households
yoy, %
Total, 5.1%
Households, 5.5%
Business, 3.6%
Outstanding Banking System and DFIs Loan Growth
by Borrowers
14
The ringgit depreciated against the US dollar in 3Q due mainly to
external factors, in line with regional currencies
*as at 15 November 2018
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
%
Performance of Selected Regional Currencies Against USD Portfolio Investments (RM billion; 1Q 2016-3Q 2018)
-11.2
-8.2
-6.1
-5.4
-5.3
-3.8
-3.0
-2.9
-0.6
-5.4
-3.5
-3.8
-1.3
0.8
0.1
-2.5
-0.2
2.5
-15 -10 -5 0 5
INR
IDR
CNY
PHP
KRW
TWD
MYR
SGD
THB
3Q 2018 YTD*
Non-resident portfolio investment registered
more moderate outflows in 3Q18
The ringgit depreciated amid continued strength
of the USD
15
-38.3
0.6
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
Residents Non-residents Portfolio Investment
RM billion
Ample liquidity condition to support price discovery and lower
transaction costs
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Bloomberg
Note: Volatility refers to the difference between USD/MYR interbank intraday highest and lowest rate.
Offshore rate refers to the NDF 1-month rate while onshore rate refers to the spot rate.
16
7.9
10.0 10.2 11.9
9.9 11.2
12.1 12.4
0
4
8
12
16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
228
6279
113137
12292
108
67
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
42
2327
32 30
22 2428
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
3.1
0.9
1.41.2
0.9 1.00.7 0.7 0.7
0
1
2
3
4
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Average Intraday Movement of USD/MYR
Average USD/MYR Bid-Ask Spread
Average daily FX turnoverUSD bn Pips
Pips
USD bn
Onshore FX volume remained
healthy
MYR trading range narrowed as
investors await for fresh news
Spillover impact remains limited as
NDF volume subdued
Tightening bid-ask spread
following lower market volatility
Goods conversion remained stable post-
enhancement of FEA policies in Aug 18
Sovereign credit spread remains
elevated on persisting global
uncertainty
USD bn Bps
Average Daily 5-year CDS spreadNet Foreign Exchange Conversion
from Exports (Cumulative)
-0.51.4
3.6
7.3
9.2
11.4
13.6 13.7 13.6
-0.5
3.5
7.5
11.5
15.5
Jan - Nov-16
Dec-16 -Jun-17
Dec-16 -Dec-17
Dec-16 -Jun-18
Dec 16 -Sep 18
151
108
88
6861
67
100 96 98
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Average Daily USD/MYR NDF volume
40.7%
35.4%
17.3%
4.2%1.3% 0.6% 0.6%
0
20
40
60
80
Asset
Ma
nag
em
ent
Ce
ntr
al
Banks/
Govern
ments
Pensio
nF
un
ds
Banks
Insu
rance
Co
mpa
nie
s
No
min
ees/
Cu
sto
dia
ns
Oth
ers
RM billion
23.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Se
p-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Se
p-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Se
p-1
8
% NR Holding
RM billion Govt Bond (LHS)% NR of Govt (RHS)
29.8%
Note:
- Malaysian Government Bonds includes Malaysian Government Securities (MGS), Malaysian Government Investment Issues (MGII), and Sukuk Perumahan
Kerajaan (SPK).
- ‘Others’ include individuals, non-financial corporations and unidentified sectors
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Distribution of Non-resident Holdings of Government
Bonds as at end-Sep 2018
Non-resident Holdings of Malaysian Government Bonds
Non-resident holdings of Malaysian government bonds declined marginally
following weaker sentiment on emerging markets and Fed rate normalisation
Long-term NR investors remain key holders of the
Malaysian government bonds
Non-resident holdings of Malaysian
Government bonds remained stable
17
External debt remains manageable
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
Limited rollover risk as more
than half is skewed towards
medium- to long-term tenures
Malaysia’s External Debt by Maturity
in 3Q 2018 End-3Q 2018: RM947.9 bn; % share
Close to a third is denominated
in ringgit and not subject to
valuation changes
FX debt are mostly subjected
to either prudential safeguards
or flexible terms
18
Medium- to long-term
54%
Short-term
46%
Malaysia’s External Debt by Currency
in 3Q 2018 End-3Q 2018: RM947.9 bn; % share
Ringgit-denominated debt
31%
Foreign currency-denominated debt
69%
Trade credits
• Backed by export earnings
and self-liquidating
16%
23%
Intercompany loans
• Flexible/concessionary
terms
Interbank borrowings
(31.4%) and non-
resident deposits (6.6%)
• Prudent liquidity
management including
limits on funding and
maturity mismatches
Malaysia’s foreign-currency
denominated external debt in 3Q 2018 % share
38%
15%
8%
Bonds and notes
Others
61%
19
Diversified external debt currency denominations and decentralisation
of reserves accord Malaysia with resilience against ringgit depreciation
1 Includes mainly direct and portfolio investments abroad2 Comprises non-resident holdings of domestic debt securities and placement of deposits in the domestic banking system, as well as holdings of equity securities in the
form of foreign direct and portfolio investments
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
USD55.9%
MYR30.5%
CNY3.3%
JPY2.0%
Others6.3%
About a third of external debt
denominated in ringgit, lowering
exposure of currency fluctuations
Malaysia’s External Debt by Currency End-3Q 2018: RM947.9 bn; % share
Banks’ and corporations’ external
assets have doubled since 2010,
reflecting decentralisation of reserves
Malaysia’s External AssetsEnd-3Q 2018: RM 1.7 trillion; RM billion
329 427
622
1,272
2010 3Q 2018
Banks' and corporations' external assets
BNM's international reserves
951
1,699
FC external assets far exceed FC
external liabilities, mitigating
impact of ringgit depreciation
97
1,0472
1,6021
764
External assets External liabilities
Ringgit
Foreign currencies
1,6991,811
IIP by Currency RM billion
SGD
2.0%
Foreign
currencies
70%
Reserves remain adequate and are not the only means to meet
external obligations
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Net International Reserves
Reserves/ST ext debt (RHS)
Reserves-to-ST external debt
coverage at 1.0x adequate to
facilitate international transactions
Net International Reserves
USD billion Times
Interbank borrowings (intragroup)
36%
Interbank borrowings
(non intragroup)
12%
NR deposits
22%
Intercompany loans4%
Trade credits12%
Others5%
Banks account for about 70%
of short-term external debt
Banks have FCY
liquid assets to meet
external obligations
External debt of the
banking sector (71%*)
RM billion
20
Loans
8%
Debt-at-risk1
69
310
152
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Banks'STED
Banks' FCYliquid assets
1 Comprises unstable exposures with unrelated counterparties that is more susceptible to sudden withdrawal shocks
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
Breakdown of Malaysia’s Short-Term
External Debt by Instrument in 3Q 2018
End-3Q 2018: RM436.1 bn; % share
Steady growth path in 2018 and 2019
Strong consumer spending due to zerorisation
of GST
Strong business and consumer sentiments
Expansion in manufacturing production capacity
Prolonged disruptions in commodity production
Review of mega projects
Commencement of new production facilities
Recovery of commodity output
Continued private sector spending
Slower global trade
Continued reprioritisation of public expenditure
2018
21
2019
Downside risks to growth
▼ Further escalation of trade tensions
▼ Greater financial market volatility
▼ Unanticipated disruption in commodity production
Factors weighing on growth
Factors supporting growth
10.4
3.1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3616
7 75 5
2 2 1
HK UK CN JP SG DE ID LU KR
ROW
Market
% share of exports
54
23
8 8 5
Services Mfg. Mining Agri. Const.
55.595.7
11.8
17.8
0
10
20
0
50
100
150
1998 2017
Size of Bond MarketCapital Ratio* (RHS)
Malaysia’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong
Broad-based sources of growth Favourable labour market
conditions
Diversified export market
and product
Deeper financial markets,
resilient banking system and
strong financial buffers
Continued current account
surplus
% of GNI
Current Account Balance
Malaysia GDP by Economic Sectors (2017)
% share of GDP
% of
nominal
GDP
Size of Bond Market
and Banking Capital Ratio %
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia p preliminary
Conducive investment
destination for foreign investors
FDI Inflows of RM 60bn by Source
Country (2017-3Q 2018)
% share of total FDI inflows
Employment
million
2016 2017
14.1
14.5
Product
% share of exports
E&E
Non-E&E
Commodities
PR ChinaNIEs
G3
ASEAN
22
* Capital ratio in ‘98 refers to the risk-weighted capital ratio; Ratio in 2017 refers to total capital ratio, reported based on Basel III Capital Adequacy Framework adopted since January 2013; Note: HK= Hong Kong,
CN=China, SG= Singapore, UK= United Kingdom, JP=Japan, DE=Germany, ID=Indonesia, KR=South Korea, LU= Luxembourg
Note: NIEs include Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei and Korea
37
45
17
2017
28
29
1311
19
2017
9.6
2016 2017
6.5
Income Growth
%
Escalating Trade Tensions and Potential Spillovers
to Malaysia
23
3.7
2.9
4.0
2.9
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019f
World growth
World trade(RHS)
Escalating trade tensions to weigh down on economic prospects
Further intensification of trade actions could
pose significant risk to the global economy
Source: Staff estimationSource: IMF WEO, staff estimation
Ppt. Impact to Annual Change
(ppt)
% yoy % yoy
This could have negative spillovers to
Malaysia’s growth prospects
Long-Term Global GDP and Trade Growth Malaysia’s GDP Growth
Asian
Financial
Crisis
Aftermath of
Dot-com
Bubble
Global
Financial
Crisis
Potential
impact of
trade actions
24
-0.1
-0.25 -0.45
-0.5
-0.3 to -0.5
-0.9 to -1.1
Announced trade actions Further trade actions
+25% on USD200bn
Blanket tariffs on aluminium,
steel & solar; +25% on USD50bn
+25% on remaining trade
with PR China
Blanket auto tariffs
Baseline Scenario
Q & A
Additional Information
The Malaysian economy grew by 4.4% in the third quarter
2127
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
Share, %
(2017)2017
2018
1Q 2Q 3Q
Domestic demand
(excluding stocks)92.2 6.5 4.1 5.6 6.9
Private Sector 71.1 7.5 5.2 7.5 8.5
Consumption 53.7 7.0 6.9 8.0 9.0
Investment 17.4 9.3 0.5 6.1 6.9
Public Sector 21.0 3.3 -0.1 -1.4 1.1
Consumption 13.0 5.4 0.4 3.1 5.2
Investment 8.0 0.1 -1.0 -9.8 -5.5
Net exports of
goods
and services
7.7 -1.9 62.4 1.7 -7.5
Exports 72.8 9.4 3.7 2.0 -0.8
Imports 65.1 10.9 -2.0 2.1 0.1
Change in stocks
(RM billion)0.0 1.1 -5.0 2.8 -6.5
GDP (y-o-y) 1001 5.9 5.4 4.5 4.4
GDP (q-o-q growth,
seasonally
adjusted)
- 1.0 1.4 0.3 1.6
Note: 2 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties
component
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Note: 1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
Share, %
(2017)2017
2018
1Q 2Q 3Q
Services 54.5 6.2 6.5 6.5 7.2
Manufacturing 23.0 6.0 5.3 4.9 5.0
Mining and
Quarrying8.4 1.0 0.1 -2.2 -4.6
Agriculture 8.2 7.2 2.8 -2.5 -1.4
Construction 4.6 6.7 4.9 4.7 4.6
Real GDP 1002 5.9 5.4 4.5 4.4
5.7 5.7
3
4
5
6
7
8
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
Private consumption surged to 9.0% supported by continued
income growth, with additional lift from tax holiday
Household spending
improved further in 3Q
Annual change, %
Real Private Consumption Growth
8.0
9.0
5
6
7
8
9
10
3Q-16 1Q-17 3Q-17 1Q-18 3Q-18
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
28
Looking ahead, private
consumption growth to moderate
• Households to adjust spending
with the lapse in tax holiday
• Higher inflation to also affect
consumption growth
• However, steady labour
market conditions and some
Government measures will
provide support
Continued private sector
wage growth
Annual change, %
Private Sector* Wage Growth
*Private sector wages is derived from the salaries
and wages data published in the Monthly
Manufacturing Statistics and Quarterly Services
Statistics by the Department of Statistics Malaysia
Higher private investment growth at 6.9% amid continued elevated
capacity utilisation
83.182.8
70
80
90
3Q-16 1Q-17 3Q-17 1Q-18 3Q-18
6.1
6.9
0
4
8
12
16
3Q-16 1Q-17 3Q-17 1Q-18 3Q-18
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, MIER
Annual change, %
MIER Capacity Utilisation Rate
%
Private investment
trended higher
Capacity utilisation
remained elevated
Real Private Investment Growth
‘11 – ’17 average: 79.3%
29
Going forward, investment
activity to be supported by:
• Implementation of ongoing
multi-year projects
• Capacity expansion in major
sectors
Services expanded by 7.2 per cent
Activity 2017
2018
1Q 2Q 3Q
Services 6.2 6.5 6.5 7.2
Wholesale & Retail Trade 7.1 6.8 7.3 9.5
Information &
Communication8.4 8.3 8.6 8.4
Finance & Insurance 4.6 7.5 4.9 6.3
Real estate & Business
Services7.4 7.4 7.8 7.7
Food & Beverages
and Accommodation7.4 7.7 9.0 9.3
Transportation & Storage 6.2 5.7 6.4 6.7
Other Services 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.6
Annual Growth of Services Sector and by Sub-Sectors
• Wholesale & Retail Trade grew at faster pace led by retail and motor vehicles
• Information & Communication supported by communication and computer services
• Finance & insurance improved further
30
Manufacturing grew by 5.0 per cent
Activity 20172018
1Q 2Q 3Q
MANUFACTURING 6.0 5.3 4.9 5.0
G7: Electrical, Electronic and
Optical Products8.0 6.0 6.2 6.4
G5: Petroleum, Chemical,
Rubber and Plastic Products4.1 5.0 3.8 3.9
G8: Transport Equipment,
Other Manufacturing and
Repair
5.2 3.3 6.5 8.0
G6: Non-Metallic Mineral
Products, Basic Metal and
Fabricated Metal Products
4.6 5.1 5.0 5.0
G4: Wood Products,
Furniture, Paper Products
and Printing
4.6 4.1 4.0 6.1
G1: Vegetable and Animal
Oils & Fats and Food
Processing
10.1 9.1 4.1 2.2
G2: Beverages and Tobacco
Products6.2 1.4 3.8 3.3
G3: Textiles, Wearing
Apparel and Leather
Products
8.0 6.6 4.0 3.0
Annual Growth of Manufacturing Sector and by Sub-Sectors
• Electrical & Electronic products supported the growth
• Petroleum, Chemical, Rubber & Plastic Products was led by refined petroleum and rubber products
• Transport Equipment, Other Manufacturing and Repair backed by Motor vehicles and transport equipments
• Non-Metallic Mineral Products, Basic Metal and Fabricated Metal Products supported by non metallic mineral and basic metal
31
Agriculture recorded negative growth of 1.4 percent
Activity 2017
2018
1Q 2Q 3Q
Agriculture 7.2 2.8 -2.5 -1.4
Oil Palm 16.0 12.5 -6.0 -8.0
Rubber 9.3 -28.5 -20.1 -0.2
Forestry & Logging -15.7 -13.5 -6.0 2.6
Fishing -2.1 -2.9 -0.8 2.1
Livestock 5.3 5.7 7.4 8.2
Other Agriculture 2.1 4.5 5.0 5.9
Annual Growth of Agriculture Sector
• All sub-sectors registered better growth except Oil palm
• Livestock supported by poultry and cattle
• Fishing backed by marine fishing and aquaculture
32
Current account surplus was sustained in 3Q 2018
RM billion 20172018
1Q 2Q 3Q
Current Account 40.3 15.0 3.9 3.8
Goods 116.8 35.7 26.1 26.6
Exports 807.0 202.1 202.4 211.8
Imports 690.2 166.4 176.4 185.2
Services -22.8 -5.8 -6.2 -3.3
Receipts 159.2 38.3 39.0 40.9
Payments 182.0 44.2 45.2 44.3
Primary income -36.4 -10.2 -11.2 -15.0
Receipts 53.5 13.0 13.3 12.2
Payments 89.8 23.2 24.5 27.3
Secondary income -17.3 -4.7 -4.7 -4.5
Receipts 16.7 3.7 3.6 4.1
Payments 34.0 8.4 8.3 8.5
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Sustained CA surplus... … supported by a higher goods surplus amid a
larger primary income deficit…
Higher goods surplus
• Higher E&E exports
• Smaller decline in commodity exports
Higher primary income deficit
• Higher profits earned by foreign investors,
particularly in the mining and
manufacturing sectors
33
In the first 3 quarters of 2018, Malaysia’s
current account registered a cumulative
surplus of RM22.7 billion (or 2.2% of GNI)
Higher foreign direct investments (FDI) in 3Q 2018
Note: Figures may not add up due to netting off and rounding
*Non-financial services includes electricity & gas, water supply, wholesale & retail trade, transportation and storage, accommodation, F&B, ICT, Real estate, public
administration, education, human health, arts, entertainment
Sources: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, staff calculations
FDI in Malaysia by sectors and country (RM billion),
3Q 2018
• Higher FDI in 3Q 2018 (RM3.9 billion;
2Q 2018: RM2.8 billion)
• FDI reflected mainly continued profitable
operations and higher global crude oil
prices
• Advanced economies including the US,
UK and Japan were the largest sources
of FDI
• Income of FDI firms operating in
Malaysia increased to RM16.3 billion,
the highest since 4Q 2013
FDI flows remain broad-based across sectors
34
Total FDI inflows (3Q 2018):
RM3.9 billion
Non-financial
services
Construction
Manufacturing
Mining
Top 5 FDI
countriesRM billion
US 2.1
UK 1.2
Japan 1.0
Switzerland 1.0
Hong Kong 0.5
Financial services
1.2
1.9
0.10.2
0.5
End