Set of Recommendations

Do we understand what happened in 2007, 2005, 1997 etc….?

Do we understand why predictions are not reproducing the interrannual variability ?

Are predictions more reliable as far as long term trend is concerned ?

Can we pretend we are now able to predict what will happen in summer 2008 ?

UCAR 2007, Steve Deyo

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Série1

106 km2

1979 2007

Arctic sea-ice summer minimum extent

1990 2000

TARASept 2006

NP 34 2005

Vagabond

TARA

FRAM

Four-day sea-ice drifts from April 30 until May 3, 2002 deduced from Quickscat

(R. Ezraty and J-F. Piollé, user manual ref C2-MUT-W-06-IF, April 2003)

Time series of arctic perennial sea-ice from ERS and Quickscat scatterometer.

Backscatter maps and intercomparison with passive microwave data

Quickscat

ERS

SSM/I

Year

2002

Four days Sea-ice drift (April 30-May 3, 2002)

Sea ice thickness variations

(Rothrock et al. ,1999)

Ice thickness changes

Tfreez - 1.7C

Ron KWOK GRL. Vol 34, 2007

96-9705-06

06-0704-05

9 Sv

3 Sv

RAC

JMC

NAC

La Hague

Sellafield

NCC

I129

BARENTSSEA

MAIA

EGCNIC

Profils verticaux de température et de salinité observés d’avril à juin 2002 (April-June) entre 89°N et 87°N