SCHOOLING POLICIES FOR QUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Eric A. HanushekStanford University

May 2013

Key Questions

1. Does achievement matter?

YES

2. Is Spain competitive?

NO

3. How is Spain doing?

NOT WELL

4. Are there things to be done?

YES

Does achievement matter? and Is Spain competitive?

Cognitive Skills and Long Run Economic Growth

Years of Schooling and Economic Growth

Without quality control

With quality control

PISA Mathematics Achievement, 2009S

hang

hai

Hon

g K

ong

Tai

wan

Liec

hten

stei

n

Japa

n

Net

herla

nds

New

Zea

land

Aus

tral

ia

Est

onia

Den

mar

k

Nor

way

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Rep

ublic

Pol

and

Cze

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lic

Hun

gary

Uni

ted_

Sta

tes

Por

tuga

l

Italy

Lith

uani

a

Gre

ece

Dub

ai (

UA

E)

Tur

key

Aze

rbai

jan

Rom

ania

Chi

le

Mex

ico

Kaz

akhs

tan

Arg

entin

a

Bra

zil

Alb

ania

Indo

nesi

a

Per

u

Kyr

gyzs

tan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

PISA Mathematics Achievement, 2009S

hang

hai

Hon

g K

ong

Tai

wan

Liec

hten

stei

n

Japa

n

Net

herla

nds

New

Zea

land

Aus

tral

ia

Est

onia

Den

mar

k

Nor

way

Slo

vak_

Rep

ublic

Pol

and

Cze

ch_R

epub

lic

Hun

gary

Uni

ted_

Sta

tes

Por

tuga

l

Italy

Lith

uani

a

Gre

ece

Dub

ai (

UA

E)

Tur

key

Aze

rbai

jan

Rom

ania

Chi

le

Mex

ico

Kaz

akhs

tan

Arg

entin

a

Bra

zil

Alb

ania

Indo

nesi

a

Per

u

Kyr

gyzs

tan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

PISA Mathematics Achievement, 2009S

hang

hai

Hon

g K

ong

Tai

wan

Liec

hten

stei

n

Japa

n

Net

herla

nds

New

Zea

land

Aus

tral

ia

Est

onia

Den

mar

k

Nor

way

Slo

vak_

Rep

ublic

Pol

and

Cze

ch_R

epub

lic

Hun

gary

Uni

ted_

Sta

tes

Por

tuga

l

Italy

Lith

uani

a

Gre

ece

Dub

ai (

UA

E)

Tur

key

Aze

rbai

jan

Rom

ania

Chi

le

Mex

ico

Kaz

akhs

tan

Arg

entin

a

Bra

zil

Alb

ania

Indo

nesi

a

Per

u

Kyr

gyzs

tan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Iceland Finland EU 20200

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Improvement in Achievement

bil

lio

n €

Present Value of Gains to GDP for Spain

Iceland Finland EU 20200

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Improvement in Achievement

bil

lio

n €

6.2% 5.0%

20.2%

Present Value of Gains to GDP for Spain

How is Spain doing?

Latv

ia

Ch

ile

Bra

zil

Port

ug

al

Hon

g K

on

g

Germ

an

y

Pola

nd

Lie

ch

ten

ste

in

Slo

ven

ia

Colo

mb

ia

Lit

hu

an

ia

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sin

gap

ore

Sw

itzerl

an

d

Gre

ece

Mexic

o

Isra

el

Fin

lan

d

Italy

New

Zeala

nd

Den

mark

Kore

a,

Rep

.

Hu

ng

ary

Iran

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Taiw

an

(C

hin

es..

.

Belg

ium

Can

ad

a

Cyp

rus

Au

str

alia

Jord

an

Ru

ssia

n F

ed

.

Ind

on

esia

Au

str

ia

Sp

ain

Icela

nd

Jap

an

Neth

erl

an

ds

Tu

nis

ia

Arg

en

tin

a

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Achievement Growth, 1995-2009

Are there things to be done?

Resource Policies

• Little evidence of success• Cross country evidence• Within country – developed• Within country – developing

Resources and Performance across Countries

350

400

450

500

550

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000

Math performance in PISA 2003

Cumulative educational expenditure per student

Mexico

Belgium

Iceland

FranceSweden

SwitzerlandDenmark

AustriaNorway

USA

ItalyPortugal

Spain

Korea

GermanyIreland

Czech Rep.

HungaryPoland

Slovak Rep.

Greece

Finland

NetherlandsCanada

Japan

AustraliaR 2 = 0.01

R 2 = 0.15

Resource Policies

• Little evidence of successle evidence of success• Cross country evidence• Within country – developed• Within country – developing

• Consistent with detailed analysis• class size• school characteristics

Resource Policies

• Does not say “resources never have effect”

• Does not say “resources cannot have effect”

No expectation within current incentive structure

Teacher Quality

• Teachers most important input• No identifiable characteristics

• Master’s degrees• Experience*• Certification• Preparation• Professional development

• Observable through both student performance and supervisor ratings

• Cannot regulate and pay on characteristics

Institutional Reforms Supported by Evidence

• Centralized exams

• Accountability

• Autonomy/decentralization

Institutional Reforms Supported by Evidence

• Centralized exams

• Accountability

• Autonomy/decentralization

• Choice

• Direct performance incentives

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low estimate of teacher effectiveness

Percent deselected

s.d

. per

form

ance

gai

n

Iceland

Alternative Estimates of Least Effective Teachers(United States distribution)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

high estimate of teacher effectiveness low estimate of teacher effectiveness

Percent deselected

s.d

. per

form

ance

gai

n

Iceland

Alternative Estimates of Least Effective Teachers(United States distribution)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

high estimate of teacher effectiveness low estimate of teacher effectiveness

Percent deselected

s.d

. per

form

ance

gai

n

IcelandFinland

Alternative Estimates of Least Effective Teachers(United States distribution)

Key Questions

1. Does achievement matter?

YES

2. Is Spain competitive?

NO

3. How is Spain doing?

NOT WELL

4. Are there things to be done?

YES

Australia

Australia

Belgium

BelgiumCanada

Canada

Finland

Finland

France

FranceUK

UK

GermanyGermany

Italy

Italy

JapanJapan

Korea

KoreaNetherlands

Netherlands

N. Zealand

N. Zealand

Norway

Norway

Sweden

Sweden

USA

USA

460

480

500

520

540

560

1975 2000

Trends in Test Scores

Changes in Growth Rates vs. Changes in Test Scores