Scenario modelling for land use evolution

Hedwig van Delden, RIKSESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050

Workshop at Comittee of the Regions11 October 2013, Brussels

Questions

• How will the current land use pattern evolve over time, given the current behaviour of spatial actors?

• How will spatial policies influence future land use dynamics?

• How will assumptions on socioeconomics and changes in behaviour influence future land use dynamics?

The Metronamica model

Land use change over time

Time LoopTime Loop

Land use

& Interaction weights

&

Suitability

Zoning

&

&

Accessibility

Potential for change

=

Transition RuleTransition RuleCells change to land-use with highest potential until regional demands are met.

Land use at time T+1

Regional demands

Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3Probability for Urbanization Baseline 2050

Scenario assumptions compared to baseline

Scenario A - MEGAs

Scenario B - Cities

Scenario C - Regions

GDP and population

From socio-economic models

From socio-economic models

From socio-economic models

Density and urban form

Lower density in metropolitan areas. Clustering conform baseline.

More compact and clustered development.

More space/person in regions. Diffuse development.

Policy CAP liberalization, less focus on LFA. Protection of Natura sites conform baseline

CAP liberalization, less focus on LFA. Protection of Natura sites conform baseline

CAP similar to baseline, stronger focus on LFA and stronger protection of Natura sites

Infrastructure & accessibility

Input from MOSAIC model plus attraction to main road/rail

Input from MOSAIC model plus attraction to main road/rail

Input from MOSAIC model plus attraction to local road/rail

Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3Difference in Urban SurfaceScenario A and Baseline (2030)

Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3Difference in Urban SurfaceScenario C and Baseline (2030)

Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3Agriculture in HNV farmlandScenario C Regions vs Baseline (2030)

Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3Agriculture in HNV farmlandScenario B Cities vs Baseline (2030)

• To maximize effects of policies, it is important to consider the context in which they operate and their effects at a detailed spatial level

• Urban sprawl is a powerful process. To mitigate uncontrolled sprawl, strong zoning regulations and enforcement are necessary. Areas near existing cities and along the (Mediterranean) coast are most under pressure

• Socio-economic demands will drive metropoles to higher density levels than the current ones

• Increase of land area for urban use isn’t inherently constrained by administrative boundaries. Policy interventions need to consider spill-over effects on neighbouring regions

Key messages

• What is the future of the agricultural areas: will the ongoing decline provide more space for nature or will it be used for food security and/or bio-energy?

• Should valuable landscapes be protected through agricultural subsidies?

• Should metropoles densify or should spill-overs to neighbouring regions be allowed or even stimulated?

• Could the development of green belts be a solution to minimize urban sprawl and increase the quality of life?

 

Considerations for the Vision 2050

Further information: www.et2050.eu (working documents)

hvdelden@riks.nl