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ThekingisdeadTheMiddleEastafterAbdullah

Jan23rd2015|CAIRO| MiddleEastandAfrica

ITCOULDhardlyhavecomeatamore

challengingtimeforSaudiArabia.OnJanuary

23rdSaudistatetelevisionannouncedthatthe

90yearoldrulerKingAbdullahhaddied,nearly

amonthafterbeinghospitalisedforpneumonia.

Defactorulerfortwodecades,Abdullahhad

nominatedhissuccessor,hishalfbrotherSalman

(seepicturebelow),whowasquicklyelevatedto

king.KingSalman'srulemaynotbelong:heis79and,somesay,sufferingfromdementia

thoughthepalacevehementlydeniesthis.

Rulingthekingdomisnosmalljob.KingSalmanhasinheritedarealmthatistheworldstopoil

exporteratatimewhenpriceshaveplungedishometoIslamsholiestsitesofMeccaand

Medinaatatimewhenjihadistviolenceisatapeakandhasbeendraggedintoturmoilinthe

region.Athome,thingsarescarcelybetter:thecountryof30mistheonlyoneinwhichwomen

cannotdrivethankstothestrugglebetweenreformistsandconservatives.Andthepublic

accountsnolongerbalancewithoutdippingintothecountry's,admittedlyhuge,reserves.

Fewreckonthenewmonarchwillrocktheboat.A

formergovernorofRiyadh,heisthoughttobe

similarlymindedtoAbdullah,albeitalittlemore

conservative,andwillbeadvisedbythesame

people.

Butchallengesabound.Abroad,Saudihastaken

amoreactiviststanceoflate,andnotalwayswith

muchsuccess.TheattempttobuildarebelarmytooustPresidentBasharalAssadofSyria

failedandSaudiArabiaisnowinvolvedinawaragainstthejihadistsofIslamicState.Officials

areparticularlyalarmedbyAmericasattemptstostrikeadealwithIran,withwhichitviesfor

power,overitsnuclearprogramme.Iran,championoftheShiaminority,hasbeenexpanding

itsinfluenceinSyria,IraqandLebanon.Thenewkingwillhaveinstantdecisionstomakeafter

YemensgovernmentfelltoHouthirebels,backedbyIran,overnight.SaudiArabiahadled

attemptsforapeacefultransitioninthecountryafterthetopplingofAliAbdullahSalehin2011.

SaudicitizensareworriedaboutblowbackathomefromYemen,IslamicStateandIran.The

ShiaregimeinTehranhasbeencriticalofSaudiArabiaforguardingitsmarketshareoftheoil

tradebyrefusingtocutproductiontostopthepricefall.Thisisstartingtocauseapinchat

home.InDecemberSaudiArabiasaiditsbudgetdeficitwouldriseto$39billionin2015,almost

5%ofGDP.Thousandsofgraduatesneedwork,andmostseekjobsinthebloatedpublicsector

ratherthaninthefledglingprivateone.Decadesoldtalkofdiversifyingtheeconomyhasrisen

again.

Indeeddomesticallytheobstaclesaregreater.BySaudistandards,Abdullahwasamoderniser,

appointingthefirstfemalegovernmentministerandin2013appointing30womentotheShura

Council.ThesemovesdrewprotestsfromthepuritanicalWahhabiclericsandpartsofthe

devoutpopulation,aswellasreformerswhopointoutthatwomenarestillunabletodriveor

fraternisewithmenwhoarenotrelatives.Freespeechiscurbed.AnumberofSaudisare

pushingforreligiontohavelessofagriponthepublicsphere,theresultsofwhicharestrict

lawsonblasphemyandabanoncinemas.

AftertheArabprotests,AbdullahsentarmouredvehiclestohelpcrushBahrainsuprisingbythe

island'smainlyShiapopulationagainsttheSunnirulingfamily.Hekepthisownpopulation,

especiallytheShiaintheeast,quiescentbyspendingmillionsongovernmentwagesand

housing,andsettingupaFacebookpageforcitizenstoairtheirgrievances.HowlongSaudi

Arabia'sageingrulerscancontinuesuchtacticsisinquestion,andnotjustbecauseofthecost.

OneofAbdullahsgreatlegacieshasbeenfundingscholarshipsthathavesentthousandsof

youngSaudistostudyinWesternuniversitieswhere,someatleast,havepickedupdemocratic

ideals.

ByappointingSalmanashiscrownprince,Abdullahalsoavoidedtheloomingdifficultyof

passingthecrowndownagenerationinasystemwherepowerhasbeenhandeddownbetween

thesonsofAbdelAzizbinSaud,thefounderofthemodernstateofSaudiArabiain1932.On

takingthethroneKingSalmanaffirmedthathiscrownprincewillbetheyoungestbrotherof

thegeneration,Muqrin,a69yearoldformerpilot,intelligencechiefandgovernorofMedina,

whowaslastyearappointeddeputycrownprincebyAbdullah.

Perhapstoavoidthenextgenerationjostlingforpower,Salmanquicklymovedtoappointa

nephew(descendedofthehisownSudairiline)asdeputycrownprince:MuhammadbinNaif,

theinteriorminister,whohasshownanironfist

whendealingwithterrorism.Todealwiththe

inevitablestruggleforthecrown,Abdullahin

2006setupanallegiancecommitteecomposedof

representativesofeachofthesonsofthefounder.

Unlikethecurrentgeneration,whorecalltheir

Bedouinroots,manyseemanyofthenext

generationasprofligate,flashyandirresponsible,

havinggrownupintimesofgreatwealth.DuringhisruleAbdullahcuttheallowancestothe

thousandsofprincesandprincesses,muchtotheirchagrin.

ForbothSaudisandforeignalliessuchas

America,perhapsthetoughestissuefacingSaudi

ArabiaisthepuritanicalWahhabiformofIslam

thatithasfosteredtheAlSaudsruleinapact

withtheWahhabiclerics.Abdullahremovedthe

mostextremeteachingsinschooltextbooksafter

theSeptember11th2001attacksonAmerica,in

which15ofthe19hijackersturnedouttobe

Saudis.ButrecentlyvoicesnearandfarhavebeenpointingoutthecontradictionbetweenSaudi

joiningthecoalitionagainstIslamicStatewhileimplementingharshpunishmentsathomefor

transgressionsofitsdevoutreligiousstrictures.Themoststrikingexampleisthe1,000lashes

handeddowntoRaifBadawi,aliberalbloggerwhocalledformorefreedomofthought(the

flogginghasbeensuspendedafterthefirst50lashes,onhealthgrounds).Thequestionforthe

outsideworldiswhethertheSaudirulingfamilyispartoftheproblem,orthebestdefence

againsttheextremists.

Clarification:ThisarticlewaschangedtoincludethecommentsoftheSaudipalace.