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Improving Rural Housing in South DakotaA Systems Approach
David Peter StrohBridgeway Partners
Introductions
• What is working now in your experience of developing appropriate, affordable housing?
• What do you want from today’s Summit?
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Goals
• Understand why good intentions are not enough to achieve meaningful results
• Distinguish conventional from systems thinking• Learn basic systems thinking tools• Apply these tools to deepening our understanding of appropriate, affordable housing in South Dakota– Where we have come from– Where we are now– What we can do to increase it
• Clarify next steps
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Agenda
• Set the context• Clarify where we have come from• Learn basic systems thinking tools• Lunch• Agree on where we are now and why we haven’t been as successful as we want in developing appropriate, affordable rural housing
• Break• Identify high leverage solutions• Determine next steps
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Examples
• Homeless shelters perpetuate homelessness
• Food aid leads to increased starvation
• Drug busts increase drug‐related crime
• “Get tough” prison sentences fail to reduce fear of violent crime
• Job training programs increase unemployment
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Common Characteristics of Failed Solutions
• Obvious and often succeed in the short run
• Short‐term gains undermined by long‐term impacts
• Negative consequences are unintentional
• If the problem recurs, we do not see our responsibility
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Good Deeds Are Not Enough
“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”
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“When you are confronted by any complex social system … with things about it that you’re dissatisfied with and anxious to fix, you cannot just step in and set about fixing with much hope of helping. This is one of the sore discouragements of our time… If you want to fix something you are first obliged to understand…the whole system.” (Lewis Thomas)
The Need for a New Way of Thinking
The connection between problems and their causes is obvious and easy to trace.
Others, either within or outside our organization, are to blame for ourproblems and must be the ones tochange.
A policy designed to achieve short term success will also assure long term success.
In order to optimize the whole, we must optimize the parts.
Aggressively tackle many independent initiatives simultaneously.
The relationship between problems and their causes is indirect and not obvious.
We unwittingly create our own problems and have significant control or influence in solving them through changing our own behavior.
Most quick fixes have unintended consequences: they make no difference or make matters worse in the long run.
In order to optimize the whole, we must improve relationships among the parts.
Only a few key coordinated changes sustained over time will produce large systems change.
Conventional Thinking Systems Thinking
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Some Definitions• Available, affordable housing:
– Primary purpose is to attract young families– Alternatives include single/multi‐family, new/rehab, rent/rent‐to‐buy
• Availability of funding for developers and buyers: – Lenders: government (multiple levels), private, nonprofit corporation
– Forms of assistance: loans, tax credits, set‐asides, down‐payment assistance, investments, payment scheduling
• Community infrastructure for development– Paid development coordinator– Nonprofit development corporation
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Deepening Our Understanding of Reality: The Iceberg
FOCUS ACTION OR RESPONSE
Why?
TRENDS& PATTERNSTRENDS& PATTERNS
STRUCTURE(Forces and Pressures)
EVENTSEVENTSWhat happened?ReactFirefight
AnticipateForecast
ChangeCreate
What’sbeen happening?
LearningLeverage
PressuresPoliciesPower dynamicsPerceptionsPurpose
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Some Key Events
• Passage of Governor’s Houses legislation• Opening of new hospital in town• Termination of federal funding source• Other?
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Graphing Trends Over Time: Homelessness Example
Time
Estimated # Homeless
Efforts to Reduce HomelessnessVisibility of the Problem
Present10 Years Ago
Trends for Rural Housing in South Dakota
Draw trends over past 10 years for:• Appropriate, affordable rural housing stock• Population of young families in rural towns• Available jobs in rural towns• Funding for rural housing development
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The world is circular not linear:
Analyzing Structure: Recognizing Feedback
From:
To:
Problems or Crises
Actions or Interventions
Actions or Interventions
Problems or Crises
Unintended and Delayed Consequences
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• We live in complex webs of interconnected reinforcing and balancing processes.
• Reinforcing process: virtuous cycles that generate growth vicious treadmills that create disaster
Reinforcing Loops
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Reinforcing Loops
PerformanceorCondition
Growing Action
R
Pattern
Time
Structure
Performance
or
Performance
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Rural Development
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Housing
Population
Jobs
Need for HousingR
Teacher’s Expectations
Student’s PerformanceR
To what extent have you experienced the same dynamic with people who work for you, your colleagues or suppliers, your children?
The Self‐Fulfilling Prophecy
Lily Pond Story
Time (Days)
% Surface Area Covered
0
100
0 30
Known Facts:1. 100% of surface area is covered in 30 days2. Surface area covered by lily pads doubles every day
Full
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Questions
1. When is the pond half full?a) 10 daysb) 15 daysc) 20 daysd) 29 days
2. How full is the pond after 15 days?a) 50%b) 25%c) 2.5%d) .0025%
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Lily Pond Lessons
Time (Days)
% Surface Area Covered
100
0 300
x
x
x
xxx xx
… And Structure Is a Better Predictor Than Trends
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Balancing Process
Structure Pattern
Balancing loops seek to correct or adjust toward a goal
Performanceor Condition
CorrectiveAction
B
Time
Goal
22
Performance
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The Risk of Taking the Pressure Off
B
Results(e.g., Plant Accidents)
Effort(e.g., Plant Safety Programs)
Balancing Effort and Results
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The Challenge of Managing Time Delays
• Delays are a significant and often hidden part of system structure.• Delays can occur in awareness, decision‐making, implementation, and/or correction.• The tendency is to be impatient and over‐respond or to give up prematurely.
Delay
B
WaterTemperature
Hot Water Flow
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Desired Performance or
GoalsActual
Performance
Gap
Corrective Action
BDelay
Increase graduation rates
Create responsible citizens and lifelong learners
Get a job
Test scores
Absentee rates
Teacher evaluations
What gap? My child is above average Our school is above average
We need more/less: 3R’s in Kindergarten Arts, physical education, social
studies ….
We expect to see these changes by …
Failing to Agree on What We Want and Where We Are:Challenges in Disseminating K-12 Innovations
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Condition orPerformance BR Constraining
Action
Virtuous Cycle Limiting ProcessTime
GrowingAction
Performance
Delay
Limits or Constraint onPerformance
Limits to Growth
• External limits (market size, competition, natural resources).• Limits within the organization or community (financial, human, or
technological resources available, skills of workforce).• Limits within ourselves (our skills, mental models, attitudes,
willingness to change, capacity to learn).
Other slowing forces may involve action by others that are caused or stimulated by our growth
Limits that May Affect Growth Situations
Causal Loop Diagram vs. Process Map
Sales
RevenuePlan
Do
Check
Act
•What do the words communicate in each picture?
__________________ _________________
•What do the arrows signify in each picture?
__________________ __________________
Investment
Quality of ProductsAnd Processes
Priming the Pump
Available, AffordableHousing
Population
Jobs
HousingNeed
Housing Development
Educ Oppty
Tax Revenue
Availability ofFunding
Community InfrastructureFor Development
Potential ReturnOn Development
DevelopmentCosts*
EconomicProspects
HomeownershipEducation
Risk of Competing With Private Developers & Realtors
Community Resistance
Risk ofUnder‐appraisal
Risk ofOver‐building
Engaged CitizensIn Vital N’hoods
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
R=Pump B=Seepage
R8
R10
R9
B1
B2 Willing and AbleBuyers
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Managing Development Costs
Development Costs
Labor Costs
Sweat Equity Prison Labor
Land Costs
Large Parcel Size
Convenience
Willing and AbleBuyers
Material Costs
Land Trusts
Design Features
Low Infrastructure Costs
Planned Density
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Understanding Where We Are
• Which dynamics make sense to you – have you experienced?
• In what essential ways is the model inaccurate or incomplete?
• How might you modify it?
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The Power of Mental Models
• A critical part of system structure• Deeply held beliefs and assumptions about
ourselves and the world• Determine how and what we perceive• Guide how we act, which in turn influences our
results• Incomplete and may be outdated
Mental Models Example: Firefighting Breeds Arsonists
Performance Problems
Improvements in Systems
and Processes
Firefighting
Time to ImproveSystems and Processes
Customers’ ExpectationsFor Special Treatment
Use of Customized Solutions
Ability to DevelopCommon Systems
And Processes
We’ll do whatever it takes. This is what
gets rewarded
I don’t have time to be on a design committee
The company will give us whatever we want
It’s impossible to develop common solutions
This will take too much time. We have to help the customer now
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B
B
Mental Models for Rural Housing
• What underlying beliefs or assumptions support our ability to increase appropriate, affordable rural housing?
• What underlying beliefs or assumptions hinderour ability to increase appropriate, affordable rural housing?
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Identifying Leverage Points
1. Ask systemic questions, e.g.– Why have we not been able to achieve desired results despite our best efforts?
– If we know the solution, how come we haven’t been able to implement it?
– How do we unwittingly contribute to the problem?
2. Increase awareness of current dynamics
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Identifying Leverage Points
3. Rewire current dynamics4. Test and shift mental models 5. Revisit goals and metrics
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Leverage Points for Limits to Growth
• If initial R loops are weak, find ways to strengthen them, i.e. prime the pump– Identify and reinforce weak links– Reduce delays or reset expectations for time required
• Anticipate and invest ahead of the limits, i.e. minimize seepage– Develop/strengthen new engines of growth– This might require diverting resources from current growth engines
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Test Mental Models
• Affirm past experience which has shaped the beliefs and feelings associated with them
• Ask, “Do our beliefs help us achieve what we want?”• Seek disconfirming data, diverse views, and alternative
interpretations of the data• Experiment with new behaviors consistent with the
new belief• Monitor experiments• Revise and retest assumptions
Leverage Points for Rural Housing
• What engines of growth can you strengthen and how?
• What time delays can you shorten or be more realistic about?
• What limits to growth can you weaken?• What new engines of growth can you develop to overcome the limits?
• What mental models can you test? How?
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For More Information
• Books– Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline and The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook– Donnella Meadows, Thinking in Systems
• Articles (from Bridgeway Partners website)– “Leveraging Change: The Power of Systems Thinking in Action”– “Leveraging Grant‐making: Parts 1 and 2”
• Websites– Bridgeway Partners: www.bridgewaypartners.com– Applied Systems Thinking: www.appliedsystemsthinking.com– Pegasus Communications: www.pegasuscom.com
• Contact David Peter Stroh– Dstroh@bridgewaypartners.com– 617‐487‐8766
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