Tanisi!

• ?

Tawâw!

• ?

Miyotôtâkewin!

• ?

Miyotôtâkewin!

• Tanisi!

• Tawâw!

• Miyotôtâkewin!

• ?

Tanisi!

• Hello

Tawâw!

• Come in, you’re welcome; there’s room!

Miyotôtâkewin!

• Happy to welcome guests

You were expecting “Minerva”?

• Tansi (pronounced tahn-sih); welcome to the Lands of Treaty 6!

• ᑭᓇᓈᐢᑯᒥᑎᐣ kinanâskomitin – Reply to thank you!

• Roman goddess of wisdom and strategic warfare,

• Sponsor of arts, trade, and strategy.

• AKA, from the second century BC onward, the Romans equated her with the Greek goddess Athena.

• Minerva, was born of Metis, who had been swallowed by Jupiter, and burst from her father's head, fully armed and clad in armor.

Progression – It shouldn’t be that hardEasy Peasy, fun, fast & free!

• Journey

RiskApp – All things riskI’ve Got an App for That – Democratization of Risk for all!

Monday, October 23rd, 2017

What-If in a Jiff!

Jiff, noun, informal

• A moment.• First Known Use of jiff – 1797

PHA software – Which tools do folks use to perform Process Hazard Analyses like HAZOPs, What Ifs, or FMEAs?

• Software, MS Word, MS Excel or PAPER based?• PHA-Pro® by Sphera

• PHAWorks® 5.1 by Primatech, Inc.

• Process Hazard Analysis Tool – aeFacilitator

• Hazard Review Leader™ 2006 by ABS Consulting – LEADER PHA Software

• HAZOP Manager by Lihou

Content or cover?

• $6,000 USA for single licence, and 20% or $1,200 per year licence fee; $50,000 or more for a shared copy; tools that allow you to get to the wrong answer more efficiently!

• One of the major software vendors has 8 times as many salesmen as folks who lead PHAs for them; that should raise a red flag.

• You do NOT need software in order for you to lead and document a good or even a great PHA.

Bottom-line:• If you only do a few PHAs, then just use MS Excel or MS Word.• If you do a lot of What-If reviews, then use MS Excel or MS Word.• If you do a Lot of HAZOP reviews of continuous processes, then use LEADER.• If you need to use risk matrices (which is not that valuable, but most folks seem to want to

use these in qualitative meetings, see the many papers discussing the pros and cons), then either automate the lookup functions of MS Excel, or use LEADER or PHA Pro.

Can you go for a day, night, weekend, or more…• Can you go a day, night, weekend, or more without using or turning

on your laptop?

• Instead of hauling a laptop, can you get by with a portable device like an iPhone, Android, Smartphone, iPad, etc.?

• Do you want to do a quick risk-based scenario in less time than it will take for you to let your coffee or tea cool to allow you to safely drink it?

• Do you want to focus on content and quality of proven standard best-practices?

PHA SCM life cycle

1. Recognize need for a PHA or risk assessment – sometimes you don’t.

2. Contact a facilitator to request availability

3. Provide minimum psi to the facilitator for a proposal and estimate

4. Receive, review and approval of proposal

5. Tentative scheduling of PHA

6. Provision of a work order and approvals thereof

7. Schedule meeting with minimum attendees and resources

8. Provision of psi to PHA team

9. Hold PHA

10. Write, receive and review final report

11. Pay for services and expenses of attendees

12. Follow-up and complete recommendations

13. Close-out work order and PHA project

14. Leverage for future use or reference for revalidation as necessary

Vision – One stop shop for all things risk

• Timbers Consulting Inc. has developed a scaled tool to provide “all things risk” on a simple, easy to use platform produced at four different levels of engagement:

1. Basic user – “free”, limited functionality, able to perform simple reviews2. Advanced user – relatively small fee for a finite time period, more functionality3. Professional facilitator or administrator – licenced, able to perform most PHAs4. Corporate licence – customized tool set for wide spread corporate use

• Provide the minimum tools to allow folks to perform a quick risk-based scenario in less time than it will take for you to let your coffee or tea cool to allow you to safely drink it

• Also provide the tools to connect to an overhead projector and perform a more rigorous PHA and export the results at the end of the session, including the assignment recommendations

One stop shop for all things risk

Basic user:

• The basic user package is “free” to anyone who has access to the App Store. This package will allow you to plan, prepare and undertake simple PHA methodologies such as Checklist, PHA What-If, MSDS or SDS reviews, process safety information reviews, the use of a standard 5 x 5 risk assessment matrix, the posting and e-mailing of data for up to five different scenarios and the visualization of the risk scenarios mapped to a standard risk matrix.

Advanced user:

• The advanced user package is the same as the basic user, except for a small one-time only purchase fee, consistent with other App Store tools. Additional tools and functionality, such as the provision of a HAZOP and LOPA technique will be made available, along with best practices and procedures to be used, implemented and followed.

Professional facilitator or administrator:

• The professional facilitator or administrator package has all the features of both the basic user and the advanced user, but will allow the use of different risk assessment matrices, unlimited exports of numerous scenarios as well as the use of simplified consequence analysis tools, training packages, Monte Carlo Simulations and a database for key safeguarding, initiating event frequencies and failure rate data. Cost will be an initial fee as well as an annual fee. Additional PHA tools such as frequency analysis, FMEA and FMECA, RCA, NMR and PSM news alerts will be added in partnership with the corporate licenced version of RiskApp.

Corporate licence:

• The corporate licence will be based on a subscription price only to provide a customized tool to individual owner – operator companies.

• Now, with the use of your iPhone or your Android device, you can quickly undertake a PHA with your colleagues over a cup of coffee or tea, even before it gets cold, and your organization can focus on the training and quality checks of your PSM/PHA studies to ensure global best practices are being followed, such as not driving and doing a PHA at the same time, and improved throughout the organization and over your project lifecycle.

Services – All things risk, here and now

• Work processes – procedures, references, tools, techniques, glossaries and more, consistent with best practices such as CSChE PSM Division products, AIChE CCPS Hazard Evaluation Guidelines, USA DOL OSHA PSM of HHC, ISO 31000, etc.

• Training packages to support both the tools and the methodologies

• MSDS/SDS, Incident History, Facility Siting & Human Factors checklists to review for possible scenario development

• What-If and/or What-If/Checklist, HAZOP, FMEA, FMECA, LOPA, QRA

• Toolset Management of Change and quality improvement, continuous improvement (CIP) process

• Links to appropriate standards to support risk management

• Export of raw and finished data for better risk management

• Plotting and mapping of risk-based reviews onto a risk matrix

• Provision of generic, public domain raw data to be used for initiating event frequency determination

• Suggested templates to be used as possible revalidations of new projects

• Risk assessment matrix development

• Frequency Analysis, initiating events as well as final outcome histories from public domain sites

• Consequence Analysis

• Monte Carlo Simulations

• PHA quality reviews

• Revalidations

• PHA concierge services and checklist to manage PHAs and audit results by others

• UBER services for companies and PSM/PHA providers

Observe, recognize, act to secure ASAP!

App Store

I’ve got an App for that!

RiskApp Sign in or Sign Up

Sign Up

Home

Now what?

WPD

RAM – PHA

RAM – DOT FTA HA

RAM – DOT FTA HA

RiskApp – Home

W-I Scenario Entry

Basic User Restrictions

Severe weather

Risk Receptor I.D.

WCC in abs. of SG:

W-I SG I.D.

SG CAT

SG 1 of 3

SG CAT

SG Summary, 3 of 3

Likelihood w. SGs

Likelihood Reduction

RISK Caveat

Residual Risk Assessed

Future

• Basic – on the App store now – go get it!

• iPad updates

• User version out next

Features &

• Checklists – SDS, MSDS, PHA Planning & Execution, PHA scoring and audits,

• What-If

• HAZOP

• LOPA

• FMEA – FMECA

• MCS

• CA, FA, Simplified QRA

• Templates for leveraging – how many times do you really want to do a PHA on that LACT unit or pump station or tank?

• Validation and ReValidation

• Uber-HAZOP

• Malleable risk assessment matrices – on demand

• Concierge & curating service – PHA storage

• Data storage and management

• Auto reporting

• Analytics

• Coaching, scoring, QA/QC

Scaleable

• Basic – free, free, free• Android and cloud coming

• Won’t compete with PHA-Pro or PHAWorks, for now

• User

• Advanced User

• “Pro” – Facilitator / Administrator

• Corporate licence

Risk Matrix - Wikipedia

Harm severity can be categorized as:1. Catastrophic - Multiple Deaths2. Critical - One Death or Multiple Severe Injuries3. Marginal - One Severe Injury or Multiple Minor Injuries4. Negligible - One Minor Injury

Probability of harm occurring might be categorized as:1. 'Certain’, 2. 'Likely’, 3. 'Possible’, 4. 'Unlikely' and 5. 'Rare'.

• However it must be considered that very low probabilities may not be very reliable.

• The resulting Risk Matrix could be :

• The company or organization then would calculate what levels of Risk they can take with different events. This would be done by weighing up the risk of an event occurring against the cost.

AER

FMECA – MIL-STD-1629A

Z662-15

Risk Assessment Matrices

US DOT FTA Hazard Analysis Guidelines for Transit Project

Risk Matrix Alberta Emergency Management Agency (Municipal Affairs) Emergency Response Planning for Community Events – 2013

Inorganic salt manufacturer – processor

Pipeline company II (derived from III)

III, CP

Risk Clarification Matrix – III

Legacy Risk Matrix

Enterprise Risk Matrix

Gas company

Finally – Problems with Risk Matrices

Poor Resolution:

• Typical risk matrices can correctly and unambiguously compare only a small fraction (e.g., less than 10%) of randomly selected pairs of hazards. They can assign identical ratings to quantitatively very different risks (“range compression”).

Errors

• Risk matrices can mistakenly assign higher qualitative ratings to quantitatively smaller risks. For risks with negatively correlated frequencies and severities, they can be “worse than useless,” leading to worse-than-random decisions.

Suboptimal Resource Allocation

• Effective allocation of resources to risk-reducing countermeasures cannot be based on the categories provided by risk matrices.

Ambiguous Inputs and Outputs

• Categorizations of severity cannot be made objectively for uncertain consequences. Inputs to risk matrices (e.g., frequency and severity categorizations) and resulting outputs (i.e., risk ratings) require subjective interpretation, and different users may obtain opposite ratings of the same quantitative risks. These limitations suggest that risk matrices should be used with caution, and only with careful explanations of embedded judgments.