Post on 04-Feb-2022
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Existing and future models
Spes. analysis
Mitigation measures
VTS
Probability system
AIS data
Ship register
Geo boundaries
Reports
Data export
Web and BI-presentation
HavbaseSupporting
tables
Environ-mental
risk
Other
Safe Seanet, PEC Agr.
Meteorology
Pilot - DNV GL Veracity
- Data mangement, data quality, harmonization, ...
Data marts
Data marts
Data marts
Data marts
Accidents DSS,Dama,SD
• Establish a long-term data collection for the analysis of probability of ship accidents in Norwegian waters
• Trend analysis• Uniform data
Risk module
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Results and deliveries
With the help of the system, one can easily provide overviews and reports in relation to:• Ship activity and trends in
Norwegian sea areas• Change in ship activity• Probability of accidents and oil
spill• Changes in likelihood of
accidents and oil spill• Overview of accident types• Use of pilot related to accidents• Everything presented through a
common web interface• Develop method report – open
risk
Risk level trendsStakeholders: NCA, other Norwegian authorities, public?Purpose: To monitor trends in risk level in Norwegian waters and report as appropriate.Goal: To be able to identify risk level trends as the basis for further analyzes and to take expedient actions if needed.[LIJ1]
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KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?
To clearly highlight rate of change in the risk level based on set criteria
To be able to easily generate risk maps with main changes - short/long term planning
2008 2040
Vessel type Risk type
Green – Increased riskRed – Decreased risk
2040
Vessel type Risk type Region
2040
2008 2040
1. < 1000 GT
2. 1000 -4999 GT
3. 5000 -9999 GT
4. 10000 -24999 GT
5. 25000 -49999 GT
6. 50000 -99999 GT
7. >= 100000 GT
01 Oljetankere 1 % 2 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 7 % 0 %02 Kjemikalie-/produkttankere 1 % -9 % 3 % 7 % 1 % 0 % 0 %03 Gasstankere 0 % 3 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 0 % 1 %04 Bulkskip 1 % -3 % -2 % -7 % 1 % 2 % 0 %05 Stykkgodsskip 1 % 7 % 6 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %06 Konteinerskip 0 % 0 % 4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %07 Ro Ro last 0 % 2 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %08 Kjøle-/fryseskip 0 % 8 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %09 Passasjer 2 % 8 % 5 % 6 % 4 % 3 % 1 %10 Offshore supply skip skip 1 % -5 % -7 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %11 Andre offshore service 3 % -1 % 1 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 %12 Andre aktiviteter 2 % 1 % 3 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %13 Fiskefartøy -4 % -4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
2009 2015
Date1 Date 2
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UC-1,9 KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?
To identify the high and low risk for spill areas in Norwegian waters
To identify the high and low risk for spill areas in Norwegian waters
2008 2040
Vessel type Fuel/Cargo type
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UC-1,4 KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?
Monitor trends in reported accidents and present results in multiple ways
In order to be able to identify trends and take expedient actions
Number of accidents within each cell
2008 2040
Vessel type Accident type
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UC-1,6 KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?
Monitor trends in reported accidents with oil spill and present results in multiple ways
In order to be able to identify trends and take expedient actions
Number of accidents with oil spill within each cell / Oil spill volume
2008 2040
No./Volume
Vessel type Fuel/Cargo type
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UC-1,5 KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?
Monitor trends in reported accidents with resulting injuryor loss of life
In order to be able to identify trends and take expedient actions
2008 2040
Vessel type injuries/fatalities
2008 2010 2015 2020 20402030
Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for respective cell
injuries/fatalities
2008 2010 2015 2020 20402030
Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for region
injuries/fatalities region
Oljetankere
Kjemikalie-/produkttankere
Gasstankere
Bulkskip
Stykkgodsskip
Konteinerskip
Ro Ro last
Kjøle-/fryseskip
Passasjer
Offshore supply skip
Andre offshore service skip
Andre aktiviteter
Fiskefartøy
2008 2040
Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for region
region
1. < 1000 GT
2. 1000 -4999 GT
3. 5000 -9999 GT
4. 10000 -24999 GT
5. 25000 -49999 GT
6. 50000 -99999 GT
7. >= 100000 GT
01 Oljetankere 1 % 2 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 7 % 0 %
02 Kjemikalie-/produkttankere 1 % -9 % 3 % 7 % 1 % 0 % 0 %03 Gasstankere 0 % 3 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 0 % 1 %04 Bulkskip 1 % -3 % -2 % -7 % 1 % 2 % 0 %05 Stykkgodsskip 1 % 7 % 6 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %06 Konteinerskip 0 % 0 % 4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %07 Ro Ro last 0 % 2 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %08 Kjøle-/fryseskip 0 % 8 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %09 Passasjer 2 % 8 % 5 % 6 % 4 % 3 % 1 %
10 Offshore supply skip skip 1 % -5 % -7 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
11 Andre offshore service 3 % -1 % 1 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 %12 Andre aktiviteter 2 % 1 % 3 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %13 Fiskefartøy -4 % -4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
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UC-1,7 KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?
Identify the reason for accidents based on ship movements and immediate actions
In order to be able to identify trends and take expedient actions 2008 2010 2015 2020 20402030
2008 2040
Vessel type Cause of accident
Ship losses and causes
2008 2040
Number of accidents per cause
region
GroundingFireCollisionFounderingIce damage…….…
2008 2040
Loss type
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UC-1,11 KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?
To establish an overview of the use of pilots/Farledsbevis – connect to voyage
In order to be able to identify trends and take expedient actions
2008 2040
Vessel type With Pilot
Without pilotWith pilot
Single ship calculations• The risk model shall be location-based, i.e. the calculations are
carried out individually for each position, such that the results can be defined as functions of position
• Based on the recorded position of AIS messages a GIS will be used to draw ship tracks illustrating traffic patterns. Ship tracks are lines drawn between AIS points recorded for each vessel based on the route the vessel has sailed, as shown in the Figure below, and later aggregated within the grid cells for use in the risk calculations. The model aims to operate on a single ship at a time.
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What have we done so far…14
DNV GL (COWI)
Approach: Critical situations
Powered grounding model Drift grounding model
COWI
Approach: Drift based on metocean data
Collision model DNV GL
Approach: Critical situations (safety domain/ellipse)
DNV GL
Approach: NavRisk (sailed distance)
Fire/explosion and foundering model
DNV GL
Approach: NavRisk + updates
Consequence model – Oil outflow
DNV GL
Approach: NavRisk + updates
Consequence model –Loss of lives
31 4 5 62
6 6
3 31
3
Work load rating 1 to 6
Innovation – here we want to focus our efforts!
--
Contact model?
These risk model is influenced by the methodology used in DNV GL’s NavRisk tool, DNV GL’s FARGE project, IALA’s Waterway Risk Assessment (IWRAP tool) and Be-Aware methodology. The essentials of these models have been used to develop the new risk model, but with new innovation and calibration.
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The overall process of calculating risk• The calculation process will be fully automatic, with no manual input for execution.
Manual input should only be needed for tool development and updates of parameters• Accident frequencies are calculated for the following types of accidents; grounding (drift-
and powered grounding), collision (head-on, overtaking and crossing), fire/explosion and foundering
Figure 6-1 High-level illustration of the risk calculation process
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General modelling approach for powered grounding
• Simplified calculation formula: Number of critical situations x probability of grounding, given that ship is in critical situation (course not changed before impact)
• This calculation will primarily be based on the IWRAP method, but the calculation will be done for individual ships, not merged traffic in lanes (which is the case for IWRAP)
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Modelling principle
• Requirement:– Automatic calculations, no manual input of legs,
waypoints etc.
• Powered grounding frequency = Sum of N (Number of critical situations) x Pc (Causation probability) – Pc models the vessels and the officer of the watch’s
ability to perform evasive manoeuvres in the event of potential critical situation.
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Number of critical situations19
Vessel do not turn- Watch Officer
asleep
- Technical (rudder/ steering gear)
Vessel deviation from route- Watch Officer
misjudgement (complexity, time etc.)
- Current, waves etc.
- Evasive manoeuvres to avoid other ship
Powered grounding frequency = Sum of N (Number of critical situations) x Pc (Causation probability)
Type 1
Type 2
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Number of critical situations- Type 1• Downscaled AIS high resolution
data– 30 s– Due to “noise” in AIS data– Points with low speed to be removed
to exclude harbor turnings• Half year of 2015 data• General cargo carriers• Critical turns
– Turns with Rate of Turn (RoT) > 0.1 o (1/radius of curve)
– 30 min vector at turns– Check if the vector ends to land /
shallow water – Where ships turn to avoid hitting
land
• Process:1. One ship analysed in the first stage2. Scaling up to all vessels in the test
area3. Scaling to Norwegian coast and all
vesselso Challenge with large amount of data
20 Powered grounding frequency = Sum of N (Number of critical situations) x Pc (Causation probability)
r
1r
= 0∞
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Drift grounding modelLeading indicators and input: • Distance sailed. Engine breakdown, leading to drift grounding, may be closely
related to time at sea or distance sailed.
Calculations; the drift grounding calculations should take into consideration:• Distance to shore. Grounding frequency at sea must reflect the distance
between the ship’s route and the all potential grounding points.• Location and capacity of emergency tug services• Metocean data (wind roses, currents)
Simplified calculation formula: Number of distance sailed (or operation time) x probability of engine malfunction x probability of ship drifts to shore (considering failure to recover ship, failure of tugs etc.)
This calculation will primarily be based on the DNV GL FARGE [1] method and the IWRAP method [2], and the calculation will be done for individual ships.
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General modelling approach for drift grounding.
Should the methodology development for grounding fail due to unforeseen reasons (data extensiveness, complexity of modelling, time constraints etc.), the risk model will use one of these two alternatives (back-up methods):• Alternative 1: Utilise the DNV GL NavRisk methodology for grounding. The above method for
identifying number of critical situations (dangerous courses), in combination with distance to shore, will be used as input to the adjustment factor for the simplified calculation formula: Number of nautical miles sailed x probability of grounding per nautical mile x adjustment factor.
• Alternative 2: Use DNV GL NavRisk methodology for grounding in its current form, with no changes. The script for this method is existing, thus it can be implemented with minimum efforts.
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Collision model• Collision frequency = Frequency of critical situations * causation factor
– a dependent probability of an accident given a critical situation
• Model utilized AIS tracks directly
• Vessels are modelled as ellipses
26
Loa
Bx , yForward
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Critical situations• A critical situation as two vessels
being within 0.2 nautical miles of each other, and matching one of three criteria– 0.2 nautical miles can be discussed
• 1) Their course difference being equal to – overtaking
• 2) Their course difference being equal – a meeting situation.
• 3) a crossing situation– a. the two ship tracks intersect; or– b. extrapolation of the two ships
current position and heading forward in time leads to an intersection
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1)
2)
3)