Post on 25-Jul-2015
Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture
Andy Jarvis, CCAFS
The Challenge
The concentration of GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for crop suitability
Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact for wheat
Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
Climate-smart agriculture
“The overall aim …. is to support efforts from the local to global levels for sustainably using agricultural
systems to achieve food and nutrition security for all people at
all times, integrating necessary adaptation
and capturing potential mitigation”
Lipper et al (2014) • 24 authors from 15 institutions
• Nature: Climate Change
In order to meet global demands, we
will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
Food security is at risk
Why is CSA important? – Food Security
2013
Why is CSA important? – Food SecurityMaíz
T-Max
T-MaxYield Yield
Arroz
Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
2013
Why is CSA important? - Adaptation
Global wheat and maize
yields: response to warming
Distribution Arabica
11. September 2014 ASIC 2014 Climate Change Impacts 10/14
Current 2050 Change
Suitability of Arabica Coffee in Indonesia – Pressure on natural habitats
Götz Schroth, Peter Läderach,cDiana Sofia Blackburn Cuero, Jeffrey Neilson, Christian Bunn. Winner or loser of climate change? A modeling study of currentcand future climatic suitability of Arabica coffee in Indonesia. Reg Environ Change. 2014.
12
Impact of coastal extreme events on aquaculture in Vietnam
Frequency of reports of fish and shrimp areas damaged by coastal extreme events from historical records, 1989-2008
The devastating effect of this one typhoon accounted for > 50% of aquaculture area damaged; and> 75% of fish and shrimp lostin Vietnam over a 19-year period
Source data: Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership (NDMP)
In 1997 Typhoon Linda grazed past the Mekong delta in its southerly track
Source: Stowasser et al., 2007
Will there be more storms over the South China Sea with climate change?
for 6-fold increase in CO2
Suggests:- increase in number of storms- Higher frequency of stronger storms over the South China Sea
Will there be more of typhoon Lindas?
2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
13
Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas
emissions (2010)
Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice,
livestock, energy)
Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands
Industrial processes Waste
Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year
Non-Ag Energy
70
11
4 2
2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
“Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
2010 2050 (Business as usual)
2050 (2°C target)
12 15
36
70
Non-agricultural emissions
Agricultural and land-use change emissions
>70%
48
85
21
Message 1:In the coming decades, climate
change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,
and rural livelihoods.
Studies with indicators for at least one component of CSA
Random sample of 815 studies
Studies with indicators for all three components of CSA
Random sample of 815 studies
Need a new paradigm for research
Synergies and tradeoffs between food security and adaptation with
CSAFood securityAd
apta
tion
6% 16%
46% 32%SynergiesTradeoffs
Tradeoffs
Mean effect from random sample of 130 studies (55 comparisons)
Can we breed our way out of the problem?
Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of the
world will experience novel combinations of climate
And also non-linear responses of crops to climates
•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C
•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree
Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
Common beans in a +2 ºC world
But anything is possible with a great genepool
(a) Historical (b) Future (no adaptation) (c) Future (+3 ºC adapted)
Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
Can we breed our way out of the problem?
Message 3:Different breeding challenges for
different crops, in different countries – no silver bullet!
CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services
landscape
crops
livestock
fish
food system
services
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
CSA options for landscapes
landscape
Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning)
Manage livestock & wildlife over
wide areas
Increase cover of trees and perennials
Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands,
grasslands and watersheds
Create diversity of land uses
Harvest floods & manage
groundwater
Address coastal
salinity & sea surges
Protect against large-scale erosion
Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia
Photos: W. Bewket, AAU
190,000 ha rehabilitated 98,000 households benefit
Cut-and-carry feed for livestock
380,000 m3 waterways 900,000 m3 compost
CSA options for crops & fields
crops
Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species
and cultivars
Altering cropping patterns & planting
dates
Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing
Improved water use efficiency (irrigation
systems, water micro-harvesting)
Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases
Agroforestry, intercropping &
on-farm biodiversity
The Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh is also exposed to tropical cyclones (Sidr in 2007; Aila in 2009)• Affected communities that suffer from
the chronic effects of sea-level rise are also vulnerable to the devastating effects of these cyclones;
• Houses, farmlands and even lives are lost.
Climate-smart farming in Bangladesh
The Climate Smart Farm Project in south-western Bangladesh tested a range of possible adaptations to climate change and variability:• Sturdily constructed, cyclone- and flood-
resistant house;• Vertical horticulture to avoid saline soil
conditions;• Rainwater harvesting for domestic use and
watering that are gender-sensitive and adaptable in different combinations to suit local conditions
5.6x 4.1x
4.5x
Agroforestry: Integrating trees on farms
Norton-Griffiths 2012
Diversified livelihoods, as much as 5 additional uses
20-40% Abovegroundcarbon
Reppin in prep
CSA options for livestock
livestock
High-quality diets that increase conversion
efficiency and reduce emissions
Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at
different ages
Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of
water points
Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds
Improved pasture
management
Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens
Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
45% higher stocking densityno increase in pasture areabetter pasture quality40% reduction in emissionsagriculture decoupled from
deforestation
CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture
fish
Better physical defences against
sea surges
Quota schemes matched to
monitoring of fish stocks
Greater energy efficiency in harvesting
Rehabilitation of mangroves &
breeding grounds
Less dependence of aquaculture on
marine fish feed
Reducing losses and wastage
CSA options for food systems
food system
More creative and efficient use of by-products
Less energy-intensity in
fertilizer production
Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport
(e.g. roads, ports)
Changing diets
Greater attention to food safety
Reducing post-harvest losses & consumer
wastage
Example: “Love Food Hate Waste”in United Kingdom
13 % less household food waste consumers saving $4 billion
national water footprint down 4% 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year
CSA options for services
services
Monitoring & data for food security,
climate & ecosystems
Early warning systems & weather forecasts
Mobile phone, radio & other extension or
information for farmers
Research that links farmers &
science
Weather insurance &
micro-finance
Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for
climate shocks
12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured
INDIA Weather-based insurance
Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation
Reduces risks
Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed
Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal
3 million farmers get forecasts70 community radio stations better food security outcomes
2. But major scaling up
is needed
1.5 billion
people depend on Degraded
Land
USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010)
1 billion more People by 2030
1.4 billion living in Poverty
14% more Food needed per
decade
Nearly 1 billion going Hungry
Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA
Mitigation targets?
Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World
DC Targets (2035)• 22% reduction in agricultural
emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline
• 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends
Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity
So what are the targets?
46
Requires a comprehensive approach• Partnerships: research and development, science
and policy, public and private• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,
programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services)
• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas
• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD)
30% water
20-50% GHG
Without compromising yield
• Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering
• Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 15.0
8.7
-42%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
t CO
2-eq
/ ha
*sea
son
4.93.9
-20%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
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14
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-22%-28%
6.04.7
6.44.6
Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying
Summer-Autumn
Winter-Spring
Sander et al. in press IRRI
AWD Conventional
Addressing constraintsFrom national level…
to implementation at provincial level….
Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI
Leb by
Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks
Maximizing productivity in agricultural systems. Identifying the combination of factors that lead to high and low productivities (empirical approaches)
Pulling the pieces togetherCl
imat
e re
silie
nce
Baseline
Adapted technologies
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts+
Efficient resource use
+Enabling
environment NAPs and NAMAs
Climate smartness
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts+
Efficient resource use
Global learning
• Challenge immense, but not insurmountable
• CSA requires a comprehensive approach. Line up:– Technical– Financial– Policy
• Two key factors for success:– Successfully building a business case for CSA– Addressing the constraints head on
• Agricultural scientists need to support the drive towards CSA– Mainstreaming productivity, adaptation and
mitigation into next generation of ag technologies
In summary….
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